• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive method

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Scientific Thinking Types and Processes Generated in Inductive Inquiry by College Students (대학생들의 귀납적 탐구에서 나타난 과학적 사고의 유형과 과정)

  • Kwon, Yong-Ju;Choi, Sang-Ju;Park, Yun-Bok;Jeong, Jin-Su
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.286-298
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze scientific thinking types and processes generated in inductive inquiry by college students. Subjects were three college student. Three inductive tasks were developed: Caminalcules set I which is a task consisted of 6 imaginary animals, a potato task which is a task about the interaction between juiced potato and $H_2O_2$, and Caminalcules set 2. Subjects' thinking types and processes were investigated through thinking-aloud method and interview. Subjects' performances were recorded on videotapes and analyzed. Subjects have shown 5 types of inductive thinking in the first task; observing, discovering commonness, discovering pattern, classifying, discovering hierarchy. The processes of inductive thinking shown by students are followed; observing $\rightarrow$discovering commonness $\rightarrow$classifying $\rightarrow$discovering pattern $\rightarrow$discovering hierachy. The subtypes of inductive thinking on observing were investigated by the analysis of subjects' performance on the second task. In analysis of protocol, student' thinking types on observing have been classified as simple observing and operational observing. Operational observing has been categorized conjectural observing and predictive observing. The subtypes of inductive thinking on classification and hierarchy were investigated by the analysis of subjects' performance on the third task. In analysis of protocol, students' thinking types on classification have been searching criteria for classifying and selecting criteria for classifying. Subtypes of discovering hierarchy have been classifying groups and hierarchical ordering by students. Processes of classifying groups proceeded from searching criteria for classifying to selecting criteria for classifying.

The Role of Percutaneous Pleural Needle Biopsy in the Diagnosis of Lymphocyte Dominant Pleural Effusion (림프구 우위성 삼출성 늑막액의 진단에 있어서의 경피적 늑막 침 생검의 역할)

  • Yim, Jae-Joon;Kim, Woo-Jin;Yoo, Chul-Gyu;Kim, Young-Whan;Han, Sung-Koo;Shim, Young-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.899-906
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    • 1997
  • Background : The percutaneous pleural needle biopsy have been regarded as cornerstone in the diagnosis of lymphocyte dominant pleural effusions of which acid fast bacilli smear and cytologic exam was negative. However, the complications of percutaneous pleural needle biopsy is not rare and its diagnostic efficacy is not always satisfactory. Recently, pleural fluid adenosine deaminase (ADA) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) are widely accepted as markers of tuberculous pleurisy and malignant pleural effusion respectively. We designed this study to re-evaluate the role of percutaneous pleural needle biopsy in the diagnosis of lymphocyte dominant exudative pleural effusions whose AFB smear, cytologic exam was negative. Method : Retrospective analysis of 73 cases of percutaneous pleural needle biopsy in case of lymphocyte dominant exudative pleural effusions whose AFB smear and cytoloic exam was negative from Jan 1994 to Feb 1996 was done. Result : In 35 cases, specific diagnosis was obtained(all cases were tuberculous pleurisy), and in 30 cases specific diagnosis was not obtained in spite of getting adequate pleural tissues, and in the other 8 cases, percutaneous pleural biopsy failed to get pleural tissues. In 9 cases, complications were combined including pneuomothorax and hemothorax. All 49 cases of pleural effusions whose ADA value was higher than 40IU/L and satisfying other categories were finally diagnosed as tuberculous pleurisy, however, the pleural biopsy confirmed only 28 cases as tuberculous pleurisy. In 6 cases of pleural effusions of which CEA value is higher than 10ng/ml, the pleural biopsy made specific diagnosis in no case. Final diagnosis of above 6 cases consisted of 4 malignant effusions, 1 malignancy associated effusion and 1 tuberculous pleurisy. Conclusion : In the diagnosis of 73 cases of lymphocyte dominant pleural effusions of which acid fast bacilli smear and cytologic exam was negative, percutaneous pleural biopsy diagnosed only in 35 cases. In the diagnosis of tuberculous pleurisy, the positive predictive value of higher ADA than 40 IU/L in lymphocyte dominant pleural effusion with negative AFB smear and negative cytologic exam was 100%. And the diagnostic efficacy of pleural biopsy was 57%. In cases of effusions with high CEA than 10ng/ml 83% and 0% respectively. Finally, we concluded that percutaneous pleural needle biopsy in the diagnosis of AFB smear negative and cytologic exam negative lymphocyte dominant exudative pleural effusion was not obligatory. especially in effusions with high ADA and low CEA value.

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Effect of bronchial artery embolization in the management of massive hemoptysis : factors influencing rebleeding (대량객혈 환자에서 기관지 동맥색전술의 효과 : 색전술후 재발의 원인과 예측인자)

  • Kim, Byeong Cheol;Kim, Jeong Mee;Kim, Yeon Soo;Kim, Seong Min;Choi, Wan Young;Lee, Kyeong Sang;Yang, Suck Cheol;Yoon, Ho Joo;Shin, Dong Ho;Park, Sung Soo;Lee, Jung Hee;Kim, Chang Soo;Seo, Heung Suk
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.590-599
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    • 1996
  • Background : Bronchial artery embolization has been established as an effective means to control hemoptysis, especially in patients with decreased pulmonary function and those with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We evaluated the effect of arterial embolization in immediate control of massive hemoptysis and investigated the clinical and angiographic characteristics and the course of patients with reccurrent hemoptysis after initial succeseful embolization. Another purpose of this study was to find predictive that cause rebleeding after bronchial artery embolization. Method : We reviewed 47 cases that underwent bronchial artery embolization for the management of massive hemoptysis, retrospectively. We analyzed angiographic findings in all cases before bronchial artery embolization and also reviewed the angiographic findings of patients that underwent additional bronchial artery embolization for the control of reccurrent hemoptysis to find the clauses of rebleeding. Results : 1) Underlying causes of hemoptysis were pulmonary tuberculosis(n=35), bronchiectasis(n=5), aspergilloma(n=2), lung cancer(n=2), pulmonary A-V malformation(n=1), and unknown cases(n=2). 2) Overal immediate success rate was 94%(n=44), an6 recurrence rate was 40%(n=19). 3) The prognostic factors such as bilaterality, systemic-pulmonary artery shunt, multiple feeding arteries and degree of neovascularity were not statistically correlated with rebleeding tendency (p value>0.05). 4) At additional bronchial artery embolization, Revealed recannalization of previous embolized arteries were 14/18cases(78%) and the presence of new deeding arteries was 8/18cases(44%). 5) The complications(31cases, 66%) such as fever, chest pain, cough, voiding difficulty, paralytic ileus, motor and sensory change of lower extremity, atelectasis and splenic infarction were occured. Conclusion : Recannalization of previous embolized arteries is the major cause of recurrence after bronchial artery embolization. Despite high recurrence rate of hemoptysis, bronchial artery embolization for management of massive hemoptysis is a effective and saute procedure in immediate bleeding control.

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Expression of Tubular Intercellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM -1) as a Marker of Renal Injury in Children with IgA Nephropathy (소아 특발성 IgA 신병증에서 신 손상의 예후 인자로서 신세뇨관 ICAM-1의 발현)

  • Son Young-Ho;Kang Mi-Seon;Chung Woo-Yeong
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : In order to evaluate the value of the renal expression of ICAM-1 as a marker of renal injury, we analyzed the relationship between abnormal tubular expression of ICAM-1 and histopathological features and clinical manifestations in children with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Methods: The clinical data from 43 patients with IgAN were analyzed retrospectively and compared to the histopathologic subclassification proposed by Haas. ICAM-1 in tubular epithelium was assessed using the LSAB(Labeled streptavidine biotin) kit on the renal biopsy specimens. Results: In 43 patients with primary IgAN, 28 males and 15 females aged $12.2{\pm}2.2$ years were studied. There were no differences of renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 between patients with gross hematuria and without gross hematuria. But renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 in patients with proteinuria was significantly higher than that of in patients without proteinuria($78.2{\pm}14.19%\;vs\;55.8{\pm}32.20%,\;P<0.05$). Renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 was also associated with the severity of histopathological degree using Haas classification method. In subclass I, renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 was significantly lower than those of other subclasses. A significant correlation was found between the tubular expression of ICAM-1 and the total amount of protein in 24 hour collected urine$(r_s=0.47236,\;p<0.05)$. But there were no significant correlations between the renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 and interstitial cellular infiltration, tubular atrophy, and interstitial fibrosis respectively(F=0.89, P>0.05; F=0.31, p>0.05; F=0.21, p>0.05). Conclusion: Renal tubular expression of ICAM-1 can be a useful marker of renal injury in children with IgAN. (J Korean Soc Pediatr Nephrol 2004;8:149-158)

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Analysis of Risk Factors in Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery (관동맥우회술의 위험인자 분석)

  • 정태은;한승세
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.11
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    • pp.1049-1055
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    • 1998
  • Background: Coronary artery bypass surgery is an important treatment for ischemic heart disease. Recently operative mortality and morbidity has decreased, however further improvement is necessary. Materials and methods: This study was designed to evaluate the risk of operative mortality and morbidity by retrospective method. From 1992 to 1997, eighty six patients underwent coronary artery bypass surgery. There were 61 males and 25 females aged 36~74 years(mean, 58.6). Fourteen patients(16%) had previous PTCA or stent insertion, 41 patients(48%) had unstable angina, and 45 patients(52%) had three vessel disease. Patients with low LV ejection fraction(<35%) were 7 cases and urgent or emergent operation were 10 cases. There were 6 cases of combined surgery which were mitral valve replacement(2 cases), aortic valve replacement(2 cases), ASD repair(1 case), and VSD repair(1 case). Average number of distal anastomosis was 3.5 per patient and average aortic cross clamp time was 115±38.3min. Preoperative risk factors were defined as follows: female, old age(>70 years), low body surface area(<1.5M2), PTCA or stent insertion history, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, hypertension, DM, COPD, urgent or emergent operation, left main disease, low LV ejection fraction(<35%), and combined surgery. Results: Operative mortality was 7cases(8%). As a postoperative morbidity, perioperative myocardial infarction was 6 cases, cerebrovascular accident 6 cases, reoperation for bleeding 5 cases, acute renal failure 4 cases, gastrointestinal complication 3 cases, and mediastinitis 3 cases. In the evaluation of operative risk factors, low body surface area, DM and low LV ejection fraction were found to be predictive risk factors of postoperative morbidity(p<0.05), and low ejection fraction was especially a risk factor of hospital mortality(p<0.05). Conclusions: In this study, low body surface area, DM and low LV ejection fraction were risk factors of postoperative morbidity and low ejection fraction was a risk factor of hospital mortality.

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The Clinical Utility of Polymerase Chain Reaction in the Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for the Detection of Mycobacteria (객담 도말 음성인 환자에서 기관지폐포 세척액 결핵균 중합 효소 연쇄반응 검사의 유용성)

  • Mo, Eun-Kyung;Kyung, Tae-Young;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Park, Myung-Jae;Lee, Myung-Goo;Hyun, In-Gyu;Jung, Ki-Suck;Lee, Kyung-Wha
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.519-528
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    • 1998
  • Background: Diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis is not easy when the sputum smear for Mycobacterium tuberculosis(M. Tb) is negative. We evaluated the clinical utility of polymerase chain reaction(PCR) for detecting M. Tb in bronchoalveolar lavage(BAL) samples. Methods: We recruited 84 patients whose sputum smear for M. Tb were negative or not available due to no production of sputum. We performed bronchoalveolar lavage for acid-fast stain, culture of mycobacteria, and PCR assay of BAL fluid. We analyzed the results of microbiologic examination. Results: The sensitivity of BAL fluid smear, culture, and PCR were 20%, 38%, and 40%, respectively. The specificity of BAL fluid PCR was 95%. The positive predictive value of PCR was 89%. The smear of BAL fluid was positive in 17%. The PCR of BAL fluid was the only diagnostic test in 17%. Therefore, the BAL fluid analysis including smear and PCR was diagnostic in 34 % within 24 hours. The BAL fluid analysis including smear, PCR, and culture was diagnostic in 55% within 2 month. Conclusion: The BAL fluid PCR was valuable method in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in patients whose sputa were not available or reveal negative smear.

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Delirium after Head Trauma at Psychiatric Consultation (두부 외상 후 섬망의 자문 정신 의학적 고찰)

  • Kim, Hyon-Chul;Lee, Sang-Chul;Kim, Do-Hoon;Lee, Sang-Kyu;Hong, Seung-Gwan;Son, Bong-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2004
  • Objectives: Delirium after head trauma results in various cognitive and behavioral dysfunction. This study aimed at developing and validating a predicitive model for clinical improvement after delirium based on precipitating factors during hospitalization Method: Data were collected on 45 patients who developed delirium after head trauma using 5 year retrospective design, based on reviews of medical charts including psychiatric consultation reports. The differences of the group who sustained residual symptoms of delirium(The RS group) and the group of full recovery(The FR group) at 4 week follow-up visits were compared by motoric type of delirium, socio-demographic variables, neuroimaging variables and clinical variables of interest. Result: There was significant difference in reason for initial consultation between two groups, in terms of hyperactivity(p<.01). The presence of compensation claim, subcortical gray matter lesion was significantly associated with the RS group(p<.05). Total length of intensive care unit(ICU) admission and of hospital stay were significantly longer in RS group than FR group(p<.01). Conclusion: This study shows that hyperactivity on initial consultation, compensation claims, specific brain lesion were altogether significant factors in explaining prolonged duration of delirium after head trauma. A simple predictive model based on the presence of precipitating factors might be used to identify delirious patients at high risk for prolonged cognitive dysfunction. Early psychiatric intervention would be required for evaluating efficacious management and shortening admission period.

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EEPERF(Experiential Education PERFormance): An Instrument for Measuring Service Quality in Experiential Education (체험형 교육 서비스 품질 측정 항목에 관한 연구: 창의적 체험활동을 중심으로)

  • Park, Ky-Yoon;Kim, Hyun-Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2012
  • As experiential education services are growing, the need for proper management is increasing. Considering that adequate measures are an essential factor for achieving success in managing something, it is important for managers to use a proper system of metrics to measure the performance of experiential education services. However, in spite of this need, little research has been done to develop a valid and reliable set of metrics for assessing the quality of experiential education services. The current study aims to develop a multi-item instrument for assessing the service quality of experiential education. The specific procedure is as follows. First, we generated a pool of possible metrics based on diverse literature on service quality. We elicited possiblemetric items not only from general service quality metrics such as SERVQUAL and SERVPERF but also from educational service quality metrics such as HEdPERF and PESPERF. Second, specialist teachers in the experiential education area screened the initial metrics to boost face validity. Third, we proceeded with multiple rounds of empirical validation of those metrics. Based on this processes, we refined the metrics to determine the final metrics to be used. Fourth, we examined predictive validity by checking the well-established positive relationship between each dimension of metrics and customer satisfaction. In sum, starting with the initial pool of scale items elicited from the previous literature and purifying them empirically through the surveying method, we developed a four-dimensional systemized scale to measure the superiority of experiential education and named it "Experiential Education PERFormance" (EEPERF). Our findings indicate that students (consumers) perceive the superiority of the experiential education (EE) service in the following four dimensions: EE-empathy, EE-reliability, EE-outcome, and EE-landscape. EE-empathy is a judgment in response to the question, "How empathetically does the experiential educational service provider interact with me?" Principal measures are "How well does the service provider understand my needs?," and "How well does the service provider listen to my voice?" Next, EE-reliability is a judgment in response to the question, "How reliably does the experiential educational service provider interact with me?" Major measures are "How reliable is the schedule here?," and "How credible is the service provider?" EE-outcome is a judgmentin response to the question, "What results could I get from this experiential educational service encounter?" Representative measures are "How good is the information that I will acquire form this service encounter?," and "How useful is this service encounter in helping me develop creativity?" Finally, EE-landscape is a judgment about the physical environment. Essential measures are "How convenient is the access to the service encounter?,"and "How well managed are the facilities?" We showed the reliability and validity of the system of metrics. All four dimensions influence customer satisfaction significantly. Practitioners may use the results in planning experiential educational service programs and evaluating each service encounter. The current study isexpected to act as a stepping-stone for future scale improvement. In this case, researchers may use the experience quality paradigm that has recently arisen.

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Clinical Analysis of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia in Chest Trauma (흉부외상에 의한 인공호흡기치료 환자에서 발생한 폐렴의 임상분석)

  • Yun, Ju-Sik;Oh, Bong-Suk;Ryu, Sang-Woo;Jang, Won-Chae
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.736-741
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    • 2008
  • Background: Pneumonia continues to be the most common major infection in trauma patients. Despite the advances in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment for pneumonia, it remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The aim of this retrospective study is to identify the risk factors and clinical features of ventilator-associated pneumonia among chest trauma patients. Material and Method: The study population consisted of 78 mechanically ventilated patients admitted to the ICU of Chonnam National University Hospital between January, 2001, and December, 2006. The patients were divided into two groups: those with pneumonia (Group I) and without pneumonia (Group II). Clinical predictors of the occurrence and mortality for ventilator associated pneumonia were analyzed. Result: There were 57 men and 21 women, with a mean age of $48.3{\pm}19.9$ years. Almost half of the patients, 48.7% (38 of 78), had pneumonia. The mortality rate was 21.0% (8 of 38) in Group I and 2.5% (1 of 40) in Group II. The predictors of ventilator-associated pneumonia were the duration of mechanical ventilation (17.4 days vs 6.5 days, p<0.001), the mean stay in the ICU (21.7 days vs 9.7 days, p<0.001), the use of inotropics due to hemodynamic instability (63.1% vs 25.0%, p=0.001), and the serum level of CRP ($11.3{\pm}7.8$ vs $6.4{\pm}7.3$, p=0.006). Conclusion: Posttraumatic ventilator-associated pneumonia was significantly related with the duration of mechanical ventilation, the mean stay in ICU, and the use of inotropics due to hemodynamic instability. The serum level of CRP at admission was higher in the pneumonia group. Morbidity and mortality can be reduced by early identification of predictive factors for developing pneumonia in chest trauma patients.

Online news-based stock price forecasting considering homogeneity in the industrial sector (산업군 내 동질성을 고려한 온라인 뉴스 기반 주가예측)

  • Seong, Nohyoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • Since stock movements forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, studies related to stock price prediction have been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into structured data and unstructured data, and it is divided into technical analysis, fundamental analysis and media effect analysis in detail. In the big data era, research on stock price prediction combining big data is actively underway. Based on a large number of data, stock prediction research mainly focuses on machine learning techniques. Especially, research methods that combine the effects of media are attracting attention recently, among which researches that analyze online news and utilize online news to forecast stock prices are becoming main. Previous studies predicting stock prices through online news are mostly sentiment analysis of news, making different corpus for each company, and making a dictionary that predicts stock prices by recording responses according to the past stock price. Therefore, existing studies have examined the impact of online news on individual companies. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with only online news of Samsung Electronics. In addition, a method of considering influences among highly relevant companies has also been studied recently. For example, stock movements of Samsung Electronics are predicted with news of Samsung Electronics and a highly related company like LG Electronics.These previous studies examine the effects of news of industrial sector with homogeneity on the individual company. In the previous studies, homogeneous industries are classified according to the Global Industrial Classification Standard. In other words, the existing studies were analyzed under the assumption that industries divided into Global Industrial Classification Standard have homogeneity. However, existing studies have limitations in that they do not take into account influential companies with high relevance or reflect the existence of heterogeneity within the same Global Industrial Classification Standard sectors. As a result of our examining the various sectors, it can be seen that there are sectors that show the industrial sectors are not a homogeneous group. To overcome these limitations of existing studies that do not reflect heterogeneity, our study suggests a methodology that reflects the heterogeneous effects of the industrial sector that affect the stock price by applying k-means clustering. Multiple Kernel Learning is mainly used to integrate data with various characteristics. Multiple Kernel Learning has several kernels, each of which receives and predicts different data. To incorporate effects of target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously, we used Multiple Kernel Learning. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with variables of financial news of the industrial group divided by the target firm, K-means cluster analysis. In order to prove that the suggested methodology is appropriate, experiments were conducted through three years of online news and stock prices. The results of this study are as follows. (1) We confirmed that the information of the industrial sectors related to target company also contains meaningful information to predict stock movements of target company and confirmed that machine learning algorithm has better predictive power when considering the news of the relevant companies and target company's news together. (2) It is important to predict stock movements with varying number of clusters according to the level of homogeneity in the industrial sector. In other words, when stock prices are homogeneous in industrial sectors, it is important to use relational effect at the level of industry group without analyzing clusters or to use it in small number of clusters. When the stock price is heterogeneous in industry group, it is important to cluster them into groups. This study has a contribution that we testified firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard have heterogeneity and suggested it is necessary to define the relevance through machine learning and statistical analysis methodology rather than simply defining it in the Global Industrial Classification Standard. It has also contribution that we proved the efficiency of the prediction model reflecting heterogeneity.