• 제목/요약/키워드: predictive factors

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Analysis of SEER Glassy Cell Carcinoma Data: Underuse of Radiotherapy and Predicators of Cause Specific Survival

  • Cheung, Rex
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.353-356
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    • 2016
  • Background: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) for glassy cell carcinoma data to identify predictive models and potential disparities in outcome. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors. For risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a generalized linear model to predict the cause specific survival. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate modeling errors. Risk of glassy cell carcinoma death was computed for the predictors for comparison. Results: There were 79 patients included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 37 (32.8) months. Female patients outnumbered males 4:1. The mean (S.D.) age was 54.4 (19.8) years. SEER stage was the most predictive factor of outcome (ROC area of 0.69). The risks of cause specific death were, respectively, 9.4% for localized, 16.7% for regional, 35% for the un-staged/others category, and 60% for distant disease. After optimization, separation between the regional and unstaged/others category was removed with a higher ROC area of 0.72. Several socio-economic factors had small but measurable effects on outcome. Radiotherapy had not been used in 90% of patients with regional disease. Conclusions: Optimized SEER stage was predictive and useful in treatment selection. Underuse of radiotherapy may have contributed to poor outcome.

The Predictive Power of Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from Pakistani Banks

  • SALIM, Muhammad;HASHMI, Muhammad Arsalan;ABDULLAH, A.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.11
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • This paper compares the performance of Fama-French three-factor and five-factor models using a dataset of 20 Pakistani commercial banks for the period 2011 to 2020. We focus on an emerging economy as the findings from earlier studies on developed countries cannot be generalized in emerging markets. For empirical analysis, twelve portfolios were developed based on size, market capitalization, investment strategy, and growth. Subsequently, we constructed five Fama-French factors namely, RM, SMB, HML, RMW, and CMA. The OLS regression technique with robust standard errors was applied to compare the predictive power of both the Fama-French models. Further, we also compared the mean-variance efficiency of the Fama-French models through the GRS test. Our empirical analysis provides three unique and interesting findings. First, both asset pricing models have similar predictive power to explain the expected portfolio returns in most cases. Second, our results from the GRS test suggest that there is no noticeable difference in the mean-variance efficiency of one asset pricing model over the other. Third, we find that all factors of both Fama-French models are statistically significant and are important for explaining the volatility of expected commercial bank returns in the context of Pakistan.

Hypothesis Proposal about Predictive Factors and Optimal Age for Response to Herbal Medicine Treatment for Height Gain in Children: a Retrospective Review

  • Leem, Jungtae;Kim, Jeeyeun;Suh, Kyeungsuk;Lim, Youngkwern;Lee, Junhee
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.16-29
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    • 2018
  • Introduction: We aimed to investigate the predictive factors and optimal age for response to herbal medicine treatment for height gain in children. Methods: This retrospective chart review included 61 children (age range, 5-16 years) treated for height gain between 2011 and 2015. A predictive model was established by multiple linear regression analysis. Dependent variables were defined by the differences in percentile before and after herbal medicine treatment. The optimal cutoff value of patient age was determined by receiver operating curve analysis. Results : The age of initiation of herbal medicine therapy (p = 0.012) and administration of Forsythiae fructus (p = 0.002) were significant variables for treatment response. The adjusted R2 value was 0.231. The mean ages of the responder and non-responder groups were significantly different (p = 0.023). The optimal cutoff value of age for predicting treatment response was 9.75 years. Treatment response was better among children below 9.75 years of age. Conclusions: Patient age and administration of Forsythiae fructus were identified as determinants of response to herbal medicine treatment. Treatment of rhinitis and initiation of height gain treatment at an early age are critical for better response. These findings will provide fundamental data for further research.

Algorithms for effective combustion control of refuse incineration plant (쓰레기 소각로의 효율적인 연소제어를 위한 퍼지예측제어 알고리즘)

  • 박종진;강신준;우광방
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.20-23
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    • 1997
  • Refuse incineration plant operations involve many kinds of uncertain factors, such as the variable physical properties of refuse as fuel and the complexity of the burning phenomenon. That makes it very difficult to apply conventional control methods to the combustion control of the refuse. In this paper, an adaptive fuzzy model predictive controller is proposed for the combustion control of the refuse. And computer simulation was carried out to evaluate performance of the proposed controller.

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A Review on Predictive Validity of Suicide Assessment Measures (자살성향 측정척도들의 자살예측력에 대한 고찰)

  • Park, Sung-Jin;Lim, Ayoung;Park, Subin;Na, Riji;Hong, Jin Pyo
    • Anxiety and mood
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2013
  • The increasing suicide rate is a serious problem in Korea. Because of increased awareness of suicidality as a problem and because completed suicide is the fourth leading cause of death, it is very important to assess the risk of suicide. The purpose of this review is to provide a systematic examination of predictive validity of measures of suicidal ideation and behavior. A number of instruments are described as useful for identifying individuals "at high risk" for suicidal behavior. However, the predictive validity for most suicide measures has not been established. The present review only includes suicide assessment instruments with published predictive validity. In addition to evaluating the suicide assessment with respect to predictive validity, the present review describes and summarizes the psychometric properties of each measure. In conclusion, because of the complexity of studying the risk of suicide and the paucity of well-designed studies, it is extremely difficult to compare and generalize these findings. In addition, only a few instruments, such as the Scale for Suicide Ideation, Suicide Intent Scale and the Beck Hopelessness Scale, have been found to be significant risk factors for completed suicide. Another problem in the field involves that there have been few suicide measures designed for elderly populations. Clearly, future research is needed to investigate the predictive validity of standardized measures for completed suicide, especially targeting elderly populations.

Short-Term Lung Function Changes and Predictors of Progressive Systemic Sclerosis-Related Interstitial Lung Disease

  • Kaenmuang, Punchalee;Navasakulpong, Asma
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.83 no.4
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    • pp.312-320
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    • 2020
  • Background: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) involves multiple organ systems and has the highest mortality among connective tissue diseases. Interstitial lung disease is the most common cause of death among SSc patients and requires closer studies and follow-ups. This study aimed to identify lung function changes and predictors of progressive disease in systemic sclerosis-related interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD). Methods: A retrospective study extracted SSc patients from an electronic database January 2002-July 2019. Eligible cases were SSc patients >age 15 diagnosed with SSc-ILD. Factors associated with progressive disease were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results: Seventy-eight SSc-ILD cases were enrolled. Sixty-five patients (83.3%) were female, with mean age of 44.7±14.4, and 50 (64.1%) were diffuse type SSc-ILD. Most SSc-ILD patients had crackles (75.6%) and dyspnea on exertion (71.8%), and 19.2% of the SSc-ILD patients had no abnormal respiratory symptoms but had abnormal chest radiographic findings. The most common diagnosis of SSc-ILD patients was non-specific interstitial pneumonia (43.6%). The lung function values of diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and DLCO per unit alveolar volume declined in progressive SSc-ILD during a 12-month follow-up. Male and no previous aspirin treatment were the two significant predictive factors of progressive SSc-ILD with adjusted odds ratios of 5.72 and 4.99, respectively. Conclusion: This present study showed that short-term lung function had declined during the 12-month follow-up in progressive SSc-ILD. The predictive factors in progressive SSc-ILD were male sex and no previous aspirin treatment. Close follow-up of the pulmonary function tests is necessary for early detection of progressive disease.

Development of a Risk Scoring Model to Predict Unexpected Conversion to Thoracotomy during Video-Assisted Thoracoscopic Surgery for Lung Cancer

  • Ga Young Yoo;Seung Keun Yoon;Mi Hyoung Moon;Seok Whan Moon;Wonjung Hwang;Kyung Soo Kim
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.302-311
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    • 2024
  • Background: Unexpected conversion to thoracotomy during planned video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) can lead to poor outcomes and comparatively high morbidity. This study was conducted to assess preoperative risk factors associated with unexpected thoracotomy conversion and to develop a risk scoring model for preoperative use, aimed at identifying patients with an elevated risk of conversion. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted of 1,506 patients who underwent surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer. To evaluate the risk factors, univariate analysis and logistic regression were performed. A risk scoring model was established to predict unexpected thoracotomy conversion during VATS of the lung, based on preoperative factors. To validate the model, an additional cohort of 878 patients was analyzed. Results: Among the potentially significant clinical variables, male sex, previous ipsilateral lung surgery, preoperative detection of calcified lymph nodes, and clinical T stage were identified as independent risk factors for unplanned conversion to thoracotomy. A 6-point risk scoring model was developed to predict conversion based on the assessed risk, with patients categorized into 4 groups. The results indicated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.747, with a sensitivity of 80.5%, specificity of 56.4%, positive predictive value of 1.8%, and negative predictive value of 91.0%. When applied to the validation cohort, the model exhibited good predictive accuracy. Conclusion: We successfully developed and validated a risk scoring model for preoperative use that can predict the likelihood of unplanned conversion to thoracotomy during VATS of the lung.

Predictive Factors of Health promotion behaviors of Industrial Shift Workers (산업장 교대근무 근로자의 건강증진행위 예측요인)

  • Kim, Young-Mi
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.13-30
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    • 2002
  • Industrial shift workers feels suffer mental stresses which are caused by unfamiliar day sleep, noisy environment, sleeping disorder by bright light, unusual contacts with family, difficulty in meeting with friends or having formal social meetings and other social limitations such as the use of transportation. Such stresses influence health of the workers negatively. Thus the health promotion policy for shift workers should be made considering the workers' ways of living and shift work specially. This study attempted to provide basic information for development of the health promotion program for industrial shift workers by examining predictive factors influencing health promotion behaviors of those workers. In designing the study, three power generation plants located in Pusan and south Kyungsang province were randomly selected and therefrom 280 workers at central control, boiler and turbine rooms and environmental chemistry parts whose processes require shift works were sampled as subjects of the study. Data were collected two times from September 17 to October 8, 1999 using questionnaires with helps of safety and health managers of the plants. The questionnaires were distributed through mails or direct visits. Means for the study included the measurement tool of health promotion behavior provided by Park(1995), the tool of self-efficacy measurement by Suh(1995), the tool of internal locus of control measurement by Oh(1987), the measurement tool of perceived health state by Park(1995) and the tool of social support measurement by Paek(1995). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS program. Controlling factors of the subjects were evaluated in terms of frequency and percentage ratio Perceived factors and health promotion behaviors of the subjects were done so in terms of mean and standard deviation, and average mark and standard deviation, respectively. Relations between controlling and perceived factors were analyzed using t-test and ANOVA and those between perceived factors and the performance of health promotion behaviors, using Pearson's Correlation Coefficient. The performance of health promotion behaviors was tested using t-test, ANOVA and post multi-comparison (Scheffe test). Predictive factors of health promotion behavior were examined through the Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis. Results of the study are summarized as follows. 1. The performance of health promotion behaviors by the subjects was evaluated as having the value of mean, $161.27{\pm}26.73$ points(min.:60, max.:240) and average mark, $2.68{\pm}0.44$ points(min.:1, max.:4). When the performance was analyzed according to related aspects, it showed the highest level in harmonious relation with average mark, $3.15{\pm}.56$ points, followed by hygienic life($3.03{\pm}.55$), self-realization ($2.84{\pm}.55$), emotional support($2.73{\pm}.61$), regular meals($2.71{\pm}.76$), self-control($2.62{\pm}.63$), health diet($2.62{\pm}.56$), rest and sleep($2.60{\pm}.59$), exercise and activity($2.53{\pm}.57$), diet control($2.52{\pm}.56$) and special health management($2.06{\pm}.65$). 2. In relations between perceived factors of the subjects(self-efficacy, internal locus of control, perceived health state) and the performance of health promotion behaviors, the performance was found having significantly pure relations with self-efficacy (r=.524, P=.000), internal locus of control (r=.225, P=.000) and perceived health state(r=.244, P=.000). The higher each evaluated point of the three factors was, the higher the performance was in level. 3. When relations between the controlling factors(demography-based social, health-related, job-related and human relations characteristics) and the performance of health promotion behaviors were analyzed, the performance showed significant differences according to marital status (t=2.09, P= .03), religion(F=3.93, P= .00) and participation in religious activities (F=8.10, P= .00) out of demography-based characteristics, medical examination results (F=7.20, P= .00) and methods of the collection of health knowledge and information(F=3.41, P= .01) and methods of desired health education(F=3.41, P= .01) out of health-related characteristics, detrimental factors perception(F=4.49, P= .01) and job satisfaction(F=8.41, P= .00) out of job-related characteristics and social support(F=14.69, P= .00) out of human relations characteristics. 4. The factor which is a variable predicting best the performance of health promotion behaviors by the subjects was the self-efficacy accounting for 27.4% of the prediction, followed by participation in religious activities, social support, job satisfaction, received health state and internal locus of control in order all of which totally account for 41.0%. In conclusion, the predictive factor which most influence the performance of health promotion behaviors by shift workers was self-efficacy. To promote the sense, therefore, it is necessary to develop the nursing intervention program considering predictive factors as variables identified in this study. Further industrial nurses should play their roles actively to help shift workers increase their capability of self-management of health.

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Predictive Factors for Use of Complementary·Alternative Therapies in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients (류마티스 관절염 환자의 보완대체요법 이용에 대한 예측 요인)

  • Lee, Eun-Nam;Son, Haeng-Mi
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.184-193
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    • 2002
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the characteristics of the user of complementary alternative therapies(CAT) and to identify the important predictive factors associated with them. Method: This study included 142 patients attending outpatient rheumatology clinics of D Hospital in Busan between July and August in 2001. The multiple logistic regression model was developed to estimate the likelihood of user or nonuser of CAT. Result: The duration of illness and chance score of health locus of control were found to be significant factors through the estimated coefficients of using CAT. Duration of illness is longer and chance score of health locus of control is higher in patients who have used CAT in past than that of nonuser. When the model performance was evaluated by comparing the observed outcome with predicted outcome, the model correctly identified 95% of user of CAT and 31% of nonuser. Conclusion: In this survey, duration of illness and chance score of health locus of control are found to be significant factors in predicting utilization of CAT. Nurses who care for rheumatoid arthritis patients should take consideration into health locus of control in planning health education programs.

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A Study on Regular Cervical Cancer Screening Behavior among Middle-aged Women (중년여성의 규칙적인 자궁경부암 검진 이행관련 요인)

  • 조인숙;박영숙
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: To identify the status of regular cervical cancer screening practices among middle-aged women, the associations between regular practice and research factors, and the predictive model and factors effecting such behavior was studied. Method: Two hundred women, aged 40 to 60, were selected by convenience in one urban area of Seoul. They were asked about their regular attendance for screening, knowledge of cancer and screening, health belief, health self-determination index and certain personal factors. Result: Approximately 54.5% of the women had periodic screening tests every 6 months to 2 years. Their knowledge of cervical cancer and health belief were at the medium level of each scale, but their health self-determination scores (HSDI) were low. Some influencing factors, and their cancer odds ratio were identified through univariate regression analysis. These variables were included in a predictive model, and this model proved to have enough fit and classification power (83.5%). In this model, the financial state, self-belief and self-determination scores were found to be significant. Conclusion: Middle-age women's intrinsic motivation for healthy behavior was found to be low in those who felt to be in a poor financial state, had higher perceived barriers, lower perceived benefits and a lower prevalence of undergoing regular screening test.