• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive factors

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Predictive Factors of Renal Scarring in Children with Acute Urinary Tract Infection (급성 요로감염 환아의 신장 반흔 예측요인)

  • Baik, Jun-Hyun;Park, Young-Ha;Hwang, Sung-Su;Jeon, Jung-Su;Kim, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Seong-Yong;Chung, Soo-Kyo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.245-253
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    • 2003
  • Puorpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of $^{99m}Tc$ DMSA scintigraphy on the dignosis of a renal scar in children with urinary tract infections. Materials and Methods: Eighty three patients were included in this study, who were diagnosed as the urinary tract infection on the basis of symptom, urinalysis and urine culture. $^{99m}Tc$ DMSA scintigraphy and voiding cystoureterography were peformed within 7days before the treatment in all patients. We classified the scintigraphic findings as follow s : 1 ; a large hypoactive upper or lower pole. 2 ; a small hypoactive area. 3 ; single defect resulting in localized deformity of the outlines. 4 ; deformed outlines in a small or normal sized kidney. 5 ; multiple defects. 6 ; diffuse hypoactive kidney without regional impairment. Follow-up scintigraphy was done at least 6 months after the initial study. When the abnormality on the initial scintigraphy was not completely resolved on the follow-up scan, the lesion was defined as containing a scar. Results: One hundred and fifteen renal units of 166 units(69.3%) showed abnormal findings on the DMSA scintigraphy. 65 units(56.5%) was diagnosed as containing renal scars on follow-up scintigraphies. Incidences of renal scar among renal units showing pattern 3, 4 and 5 on the initial scan was 75%, 78% and 78%, respectively. Whereas many of renal units showing 1, 2 and 6 pattern were recovered(65%, 76%, 50%). Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of pattern-based DMSA scintigraphic findings on the diagnosis of renal scar was 76.9%, 85.1% and 81.9%, respectively. VUR was significantly associated with the renal scar when the initial DMSA shows unrecoverable findings(pattern 3, 4, 5). Odds ratio of the renal scar in a kidney showing unrecoverable initial scintigraphic findings was 19.1. Odds ratio in a kidney with mild or moderate-to-severe VUR was 3.5 and 14.4 respectively. Conclusion: In the urinary tract infection, renal scar was significantly developed in a kidney showing unrecoverable findings on the initial DMSA scan and VUR on voiding cystoureterography.

The Suitable Region and Site for 'Fuji' Apple Under the Projected Climate in South Korea (미래 시나리오 기후조건하에서의 사과 '후지' 품종 재배적지 탐색)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Seung-Heui;Choi, In-Myung;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.162-173
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    • 2009
  • Information on the expected geographical shift of suitable zones for growing crops under future climate is a starting point of adaptation planning in agriculture and is attracting much concern from policy makers as well as researchers. Few practical schemes have been developed, however, because of the difficulty in implementing the site-selection concept at an analytical level. In this study, we suggest site-selection criteria for quality Fuji apple production and integrate geospatial data and information available in public domains (e.g., digital elevation model, digital soil maps, digital climate maps, and predictive models for agroclimate and fruit quality) to implement this concept on a GIS platform. Primary criterion for selecting sites suitable for Fuji apple production includes land cover, topography, and soil texture. When the primary criterion is satisfied, climatic conditions such as the length of frost free season, freezing risk during the overwintering period, and the late frost risk in spring are tested as the secondary criterion. Finally, the third criterion checks for fruit quality such as color and shape. Land attributes related to these factors in each criterion were implemented in ArcGIS environment as relevant raster layers for spatial analysis, and retrieval procedures were automated by writing programs compatible with ArcGIS. This scheme was applied to the A1B projected climates for South Korea in the future normal years (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) as well as the current climate condition observed in 1971-2000 for selecting the sites suitable for quality Fuji apple production in each period. Results showed that this scheme can figure out the geographical shift of suitable zones at landscape scales as well as the latitudinal shift of northern limit for cultivation at national or regional scales.

Clinical Outcome of Multicystic Dysplastic Kidney in 46 Children (다낭성 이형성 신 환아 46명의 예후와 관련한 임상적 고찰)

  • Jeong Il-Cheon;Hwang You-Sik;Ahn Sun-Young;Han Sang-Won;Lee Jae-Seung
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.27-32
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    • 2006
  • Purpose : Conservative management of multicystic dysplastic kidney(MCDK) without nephrectomy has recently been advocated. The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical course of conservatively managed MCDK and to find out possible predictive factors for involution of MCDK by ultrasonography(US). Methods : A retrospective analysis was made on 45 patients(26 boys and 20 girls) in whom MCDK was detected and had been traced by US between Dec. 1993 and Aug. 2005 at Severance Hospital. Results : Median follow-up time was 30 months(range 2-102 months). All patients under-went radionuclide scans and voiding eystourethrograms. The serial follow-up US showed complete involution in 11(24%), partial involution in 19(41%), and no interval change or increased in cyst size in 13(28%) patients. Nephrectomy was done in 3 patients(7%) due to relapsing urinary tract infection(UTI) and severe abdominal distension. The mean age of complete involution of MCDK was 37 months(range 12-84 months). Episodes of UTI were present in 17 patients(37%) and additional genitourinary(GU) abnormalities were found in 22 patients(44%). Hypertension and renal insufficiency was complicated in one patient. No child developed malignant tumor. Univariate analysis showed that five variables were associated with complete involution of the MCDK; gender, site, UTI episode, additional GU abnormalities, and renal length on initial US. After adjusting using the Pearson model, the presence of additional GU abnormalities was exclusively associated with complete involution among the 5 variables(P=0.034). Conclusion : In our review of 46 cases of MCDK, non-surgical approach for patients with MCDK was advisable and we could predict poor prognosis when MCDK is associated with other GU anomalies.

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Study for Clinical Indicators of Prediction for Histological Finding of IgA Nephropathy (IgA 신병증의 조직소견을 예측할 수 있는 임상지표에 관한 연구)

  • Han Byong-Mu;Cho Jin-Youl;Chuon Ko-Woon;NamGoong Mee-Kyung
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Efforts to predict the clinicopathological outcome of IgA nephropathy have been made but have yielded conflicting results and have not helped in deciding the appropriate timing of the renal biopsy. In this study, we reviewed the predictive factors of clinicopathological outcome for finding out the criteria of renal biopsy timing of IgA nephropathy. Methods : Forty children diagnosed with biopsy proven IgA nephropathy at Wonju Christian Hospital were studied retrospectively, based on medical records. Results : Among 39 patients, 2 children progressed to higher serum creatinine level. One of them reached to the end stage renal disease within 2 year 7 months. According to WHO histopathological classification, there were 15 cases of class I, 14 cases of class II, 7 cases of class III, and 3 cases of class IV. In the mild histological classes(class I, II), gross hematuria was shown in 23 out of 29 children(P=0.02). In the severe histological classes(class III, IV), gross hematuria was noted in 4 out of 10(P>0.05). The tubulointerstitial changes were grade 1 in 24 cases, grade 2 in 4 cases, grade 3 in 8 cases, and grade 4 in 3 cases. With an increase in the tubulointerstitial grade, the 24 hour urine protein/albumin ratio increased. Serum creatinine less than 0.79 mg/dL could predict the lower grade(grade 1 and 2) of tubulointerstitial changes. But serum creatinine greater than 1.13 mg/dL could predict the higher grade(grade 3 and 4) of tubulointerstitial changes. In children with gross hematuria(n=27), serum creatinine was lower(0.78 vs 1.09 mg/dL, P=0.027), serum IgA was higher(316.3 vs 198.8 mg/dL), and the cases of lower WHO classification(I and II) were more common(23 vs 4, P=0.029) than the children with microscopic hematuria. Conclusion : Serum creatinine less than 0.79 mg/dL, macroscopic hematuria, and higher 24 hour urine protein/albumin ratio would predict the lower grade glomerulo tubulointerstitial lesion in IgA nephropathy and could be used as the criteria delaying the renal biopsy.

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Epstein-Barr Virus in Nasal Angiocentric Lymphoma with Malignant Histiocytosis-like Hemophagocytic Syndrome (악성조직구증과 유사한 혈구탐식증후군을 동반한 코의 혈관중심위 림프종과 Epstein-Barr 바이러스의 관련성 연구)

  • Han Ji-Youn;Kim Hoon-Kyo;Moon Han-Lim;Seo Eun-Joo;Kwon Hi-Jeong;Park Yeon-Joon;Min Ki-Ouk;Yoon Sei-Cheol;Kim Min-Shik;Cho Seong-Ho;Kim Byung-Kee;Lee Kyung-Shik;Kim Dong-Jip
    • Korean Journal of Head & Neck Oncology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 1997
  • Malignant histiocytosis(MH)-like hemophagocytic syndrome(HS) is a fatal complication of nasal angiocentric lymphoma(AL) and difficult to distinguish from MH. Ten of total 42 patients with nasal AL had HS and 9 of them were initially suspected to have MH. Five patients had HS as initial manifestation, 3 at the time of relapse, and 2 during the clinical remission of lymphoma. Four patients were treated by combination chemotherapy(CHOP) and others had only supportive care. Immunohistochemical study and in situ hybridization were performed on the specimen obtained from 10 patients. The median survival of all patients from HS was 18 days(range 2 - 44 days) and all had fatal outcome regardless of the treatment-modality. All cases were positive for UCHL1(CD45RO) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) by EBER in situ hybridization. MH-like HS is a fatal complication of nasal AL and has a high association with EBV. Reactivation of EBV may contribute to HS and further investigation of predictive factors and effective treatment of HS should be pursued in future.

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The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

A Longitudinal Validation Study of the Korean Version of PCL-5(Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5) (PCL-5(DSM-5 기준 외상 후 스트레스 장애 체크리스트) 한국판 종단 타당화 연구)

  • Lee, DongHun;Lee, DeokHee;Kim, SungHyun;Jung, DaSong
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.187-217
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    • 2022
  • The aim of this study is to examine the psychometric properties of the Korean version of the Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5(PCL-5). For this purpose, online surveys were conducted for two times with a one year interval using the data from 1,077 Korean adults at time 1, and 563 Korean adults at time 2. First, from the result of the confirmatory factor analysis, comparing the model fit of the 1, 4, 6, and 7-factor model, the 4, 6, and 7-factor model showed a acceptable fit, and the best fit was seen in the order of the 7, 6, 4-factor model. Second, the internal consistency, omega coefficient, construct validity, average variance extracted, and test-retest reliability results were all satisfactory.. Third, a correlation analysis with the K-PC-PTSD-5 and the sub-factors of BSI-18 was conducted to check the validity of the Korean Version of PCL-5. As a result, a positive correlation was seen with both K-PC-PTSD-5 and BSI-18. Fourth, a hierarchical multiple regression was performed to examine whether the Korean Version of PCL-5 predicts future PTSD, depression, anxiety, and somatization. As a result, the Korean Version of PCL-5 measured at time 1 significantly predicted PTSD, depression, anxiety, and somatization symptoms at time 2. Fifth, by analyzing the ROC curve, the discriminant power of PCL-5 for screening PTSD symptom groups was confirmed, and the best cut-off score was suggested. As a result of the longitudinal validation of Korean version of PCL-5, it was found that this scale is a reliable and valid measure for Korean adults. By looking into the predictive validity of the scale, it was found that the Korean version of PCL-5 can predict not only PTSD symptoms but also PTSD-related symptoms such as depression, anxiety, and somatization. Also, this study differs from previous validation studies measuring PTSD symptoms in that it suggested a cut-off score to help differentiate PTSD symptom groups.

Development of Kimchi Cabbage Growth Prediction Models Based on Image and Temperature Data (영상 및 기온 데이터 기반 배추 생육예측 모형 개발)

  • Min-Seo Kang;Jae-Sang Shim;Hye-Jin Lee;Hee-Ju Lee;Yoon-Ah Jang;Woo-Moon Lee;Sang-Gyu Lee;Seung-Hwan Wi
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.366-376
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to develop a model for predicting the growth of kimchi cabbage using image data and environmental data. Kimchi cabbages of the 'Cheongmyeong Gaual' variety were planted three times on July 11th, July 19th, and July 27th at a test field located at Pyeongchang-gun, Gangwon-do (37°37' N 128°32' E, 510 elevation), and data on growth, images, and environmental conditions were collected until September 12th. To select key factors for the kimchi cabbage growth prediction model, a correlation analysis was conducted using the collected growth data and meteorological data. The correlation coefficient between fresh weight and growth degree days (GDD) and between fresh weight and integrated solar radiation showed a high correlation coefficient of 0.88. Additionally, fresh weight had significant correlations with height and leaf area of kimchi cabbages, with correlation coefficients of 0.78 and 0.79, respectively. Canopy coverage was selected from the image data and GDD was selected from the environmental data based on references from previous researches. A prediction model for kimchi cabbage of biomass, leaf count, and leaf area was developed by combining GDD, canopy coverage and growth data. Single-factor models, including quadratic, sigmoid, and logistic models, were created and the sigmoid prediction model showed the best explanatory power according to the evaluation results. Developing a multi-factor growth prediction model by combining GDD and canopy coverage resulted in improved determination coefficients of 0.9, 0.95, and 0.89 for biomass, leaf count, and leaf area, respectively, compared to single-factor prediction models. To validate the developed model, validation was conducted and the determination coefficient between measured and predicted fresh weight was 0.91, with an RMSE of 134.2 g, indicating high prediction accuracy. In the past, kimchi cabbage growth prediction was often based on meteorological or image data, which resulted in low predictive accuracy due to the inability to reflect on-site conditions or the heading up of kimchi cabbage. Combining these two prediction methods is expected to enhance the accuracy of crop yield predictions by compensating for the weaknesses of each observation method.

Effect of Bronchial Artery Embolization(BAE) in Management of Massive Hemoptysis (대량 객혈환자에서 기관지 동맥색전술의 효과)

  • Yeo, Dong-Seung;Lee, Suk-Young;Hyun, Dae-Seong;Lee, Sang-Haak;Kim, Seok-Chan;Choi, Young-Mee;Suh, Ji-Won;Ahn, Joong-Hyun;Song, So-Hyang;Kim, Chi-Hong;Moon, Hwa-Sik;Song, Jeong-Sup;Park, Sung-Hak;Kim, Ki-Tae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 1999
  • Background : Massive and untreated hemoptysis is associated with a mortality of greater than 50 percent. Since the bleeding is from a bronchial arterial source in the vast majority of patients, embolization of the bronchial arteries(BAE) has become an accepted treatment in the management of massive hemoptysis because it achieves immediate control of bleeding in 75 to 90 percent of the patients. Methods: Between 1990 and 1996, we treated 146 patients with hemoptysis by bronchial artery embolization. Catheters(4, 5, or 7F) and gelfoam, ivalon, and/or microcoil were used for embolization. Results: Pulmonary tuberculosis and related disorders were the most common underlying disease of hemoptysis(72.6%). Immediate success rate to control bleeding within 24hours was 95%, and recurrence rate was 24.7%. The recurrence rate occured within 6 months after embolization was 63.9%. Initial angiographic findings such as bilaterality, systemic-pulmonary artery shunt, neovascularity, aneurysm were not statistically correlated with rebleeding tendency(P>0.05). Among Initial radiographic findings, only pleural lesions were significantly correlated with rebleeding tendency(P<0.05). At additional bronchial artery angiograpy done due to rebleeding, recanalization of previous embolized arteries were 63.9%, and the presence of new feeding arteries were 16.7%, and 19.4% of patients with rebleeding showed both The complications such as fever, chest pain, headache, nausea and vomiting, arrhythmia, paralylytic ileus, transient sensory loss (lower extremities), hypotension, urination difficulty were noticed at 40 patients(27.4%). Conclusion: We conclude that bronchial artery embolization is relatively safe method achieving immediate control of massive hemoptysis. At initial angiographic findings, we could not find any predictive factors for subsequent rebleeding. It may warrant further study whether patients with pleural disease have definetely increased rebleeding tendency.

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The Influence of Aging on Pulmonary Function Tests in Elderly Korean Population (한국에서 노화에 따른 폐기능지표의 변화양상)

  • Lee, Jae-Myung;Kim, Eun-Jung;Kang, Min-Jong;Son, Jee-Woong;Lee, Seung-Joon;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Park, Myung-Jae;Lee, Myung-Goo;Hyun, In-Gyu;Jung, Ki-Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.752-759
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    • 2000
  • Background : Many studies have shown that pulmonary function differs widely among race, age and geographical residency. By virtue of the improvement of nutrition and environment, the elderly population in Korea is markedly increasing and so are the ages of patients complaining respiratory symptoms. However, we do not have our own data on the pulmonary functional reserve of elderly persons in Korea. We evaluate the deterioration of pulmonary functional reserve and standardize the predictive values of pulmonary function in the elderly population. Method : Pulmonary function tests were conducted in 100 men and 100 women over the age of 65. We analyzed changes of FVC and $FEV_1$ according to age and height by linear regression. We compared our new multiple linear regression equation with other equations currently used in Korea. Results : In men, the mean age was $71.5{\pm}5.2$(mean${\pm}$SD) years and the mean height was $163.6{\pm}6.2$cm. The mean FVC was $3.42{\pm}0.49{\ell}$ and the mean $FEV_1, $2.72{\pm}v$. In women, the mean age was $72.0{\pm}5.1$ years and the mean height was $149.1{\pm}5.9$cm. The mean FVC was $2.22{\pm}0.42{\ell}$ and the mean $FEV_1$ $1.83{\pm}0.34{\ell}$. Multiple linear regression equation using age and height as an independent factors was as follows : FVC(${\ell}$)=1.857-0.0356$\times$age(year)+0.02517$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.279), $FEV_1(${\ell}$)=1.340-0.02698$\times$age(year)+0.02021$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.255) in men, FVC(${\ell}$) =-0.09765-0.03332$\times$age(year)+0.03164$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.435), $FEV_1(${\ell}$)=-0.l69-0.02469$\times$age(year)+0.02539$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.41) in women. Conclusion : We established prediction regressions for pulmonary functional tests in the elderly Korean population. We also confirmed that currently adopted equations do not exactly anticipate the expected pulmonary functional reserve in the aged person over 65 years old. We suggest that our new equations from this study should be applied to interpret the pulmonary function tests in the elderly population in Korea.

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