• 제목/요약/키워드: prediction of lifetime

검색결과 220건 처리시간 0.023초

A STUDY ON FUEL ESTIMATION ALGORITHMS FOR A GEOSTATIONARY COMMUNICATION & BROADCASTING SATELLITE

  • Eun, Jeong-Won
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.249-256
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    • 2000
  • It has been developed to calculate fuel budget for a geostationary communication and broadcasting satellite. It is quite essential that the pre-launch fuel budget estimation must account for the deterministic transfer and drift orbit maneuver requirements. After on-station, the calculation of satellite lifetime should be based on the estimation of remaining fuel and assessment of actual performance. These estimations step from the proper algorithms to produce the prediction of satellite lifetime. This paper concentrates on the fuel estimation method that was studied for calculation of the propellant budget by using the given algorithms. Applications of this method are discussed for a communication and broadcasting satellite.

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Bayesian Prediction of Exponentiated Weibull Distribution based on Progressive Type II Censoring

  • Jung, Jinhyouk;Chung, Younshik
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제20권6호
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    • pp.427-438
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    • 2013
  • Based on progressive Type II censored sampling which is an important method to obtain failure data in a lifetime study, we suggest a very general form of Bayesian prediction bounds from two parameters exponentiated Weibull distribution using the proper general prior density. For this, Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is considered and we also provide a simulation study.

A probabilistic analysis of Miner's law for different loading conditions

  • Blason, Sergio;Correia, Jose A.F.O.;Jesus, Abilio M.P. De;Calcada, Rui A.B.;Fernandez-Canteli, Alfonso
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제60권1호
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    • pp.71-90
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, the normalized variable V=(log N-B)(log ${\Delta}{\sigma}-C$-C), as derived from the probabilistic S-N field of Castillo and Canteli, is taken as a reference for calculation of damage accumulation and probability of failure using the Miner number in scenarios of variable amplitude loading. Alternative damage measures, such as the classical Miner and logarithmic Miner, are also considered for comparison between theoretical lifetime prediction and experimental data. The suitability of this approach is confirmed for it provides safe lifetime prediction when applied to fatigue data obtained for riveted joints made of a puddle iron original from the Fao bridge, as well as for data from experimental programs published elsewhere carried out for different materials (aluminium and concrete specimens) under distinct variable loading histories.

입환기관차의 LCC 평가분석 (Life-Cost-Cycle Evaluation Analysis of the Shunting Locomotive)

  • 배대성;정종덕
    • 한국철도학회논문집
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2005
  • The deterioration of a shunting locomotive was characterized for the lifetime assessment. The locomotive has been used for shunting works in steel making processes, and in this investigation, various types of technical evaluation methods for the locomotive parts were employed to assess the current deterioration status and to provide important clue for lifetime prediction. Unlike other rolling stocks in railway applications, the diesel shunting locomotive is composed of major components such as diesel engine, transmission, gear box, brake system, electronic devices, etc., which cover more than 70 percent of the total price of the locomotive. Therefore, in this paper, each part of major components in the diesel locomotive was analyzed in terms of the degree of deterioration. The lift-cycle-cost (LCC) analysis was performed based on the maintenance and repair history as compared with economical cost to provide the cost-effective prediction, i.e., to assess either repair for reuse or putting the locomotive out of service based on cost-effective calculation.

입환기관차의 LCC 평가분석 (Life-Cost-Cycle Evaluation Analysis of the Shunting Locomotive)

  • 정종덕;김정국;편장식;김필환
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.551-556
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    • 2004
  • The deterioration of a shunting locomotive was characterized for the lifetime assessment. The locomotive has been used for shunting works in steel making processes, and in this investigation, various types of technical evaluation methods for the locomotive parts were employed to assess the current deterioration status and to provide important clue for lifetime prediction. Unlike other rolling stocks in railway applications, the diesel shunting locomotive is composed of major components such as diesel engine, transmission, gear box, brake system, electronic devices, etc., which cover more than 70 percent of the total price of the locomotive. Therefore, in this paper, each part of major components in the diesel locomotive was analyzed in terms of the degree of deterioration. The life-cycle-cost (LCC) analysis was performed based on the maintenance and repair history as compared with economical cost to provide the cost-effective prediction, i.e., to assess either repair for reuse or putting the locomotive out of service based on cost-effective calculation.

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승강기용 방진고무부품 특성 및 사용수명 평가 (Useful Lifetime Evaluation of Rubber Component for Elevator Cabin)

  • 우창수;박현성
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
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    • pp.576-580
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    • 2008
  • Rubber material properties and useful life evaluation are very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability of the rubber components. In this paper, the evaluation of characteristics and useful life prediction of rubber component for elevator cabin were experimentally investigated. The material test and accelerated heat-aging test were carried. Rubber material constants were obtained by curve fittings of simple tension, pure shear and bi-axial tension test data. Heat aging test results changes as the threshold are used for assessment of the useful life and time to threshold value were plotted against reciprocal of absolute temperature to give the Arrhenius plot. By using the rubber material and component test several useful life prediction equations for rubber component were proposed. Predicted useful life of rubber component for elevator cabin agreed fairly with the experimental lives.

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Prediction of Life Time of Rail Rubber Pad using Reliability Analysis Method

  • Park, Dae-Geun
    • International Journal of Railway
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 2013
  • Railpad prevents damage of the tie and ballast by reducing the impact and high frequency vibration, which occurs when a vehicle load transfers to a tie. But elasticity of the railpad can decrease under vehicle load and over usable period. If that happens, railpad will become stiffer. Increase in stiffness of the railpad also translates into a rise in track maintenance cost because it accelerates the damage of the track. In this study, accelerated heat ageing test was performed to predict an expectable lifetime of the railpad. As a result, it was predicted to be about sixteen years at $25^{\circ}C$ that life time of railpad using NR rubber from Arrhenius relationship. Also, it was predicted to be about thirty-two days at $100^{\circ}C$. At this time, a standard rate of thickness change is approximately within 12%.

자동차 에어백용 원단의 수명예측 (Lifetime Prediction of Automotive Airbag Fabrics)

  • 구현진;조항원;장갑식
    • 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.319-329
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    • 2009
  • The airbag module is an inflatable restraint system that inflates within 0.05 seconds automatically in a collision to protect the occupants. The airbag fabrics used in the module are required to have the good resilience and strength and also to have retained at least 80% of mechanical properties after using longer than 10 years. In this study, we develop an accelerated test method in order to predict the lifetimes of airbag. In this test, we select temperature and humidity as environmental stresses by analyzing the failure mechanisms of coated and uncoated nylon 66 fabrics. It is found that the degradation of airbag fabrics is effectively accelerated under the combined conditions of high temperature and humidity. Analyzing the results of the accelerated test, the lifetimes of airbag fabrics are predicted to be longer than 10 years.

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Hot-Carrier로 인한 PMOSFET의 소자 수명시간 예측 모델링(I) (A Lifetime Prediction Modeling for PMOSFET degraded by Hot-Carrier (I))

  • 정우표;류동렬;양광선;박정태;김봉렬
    • 전자공학회논문지A
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    • 제30A권8호
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 1993
  • In this paper, we present a new lifetime prediction model for PMOSFET by using the correlation between transconductance degradation and substrate current influence. The suggested model is applied to a different channel structured PMOSFET, dgm/gm of both SC-PMOSFET and BC-PMOSFET appear with one straigth line about Qbib, therefore, this model is independent of channel structure. The suggested model is applied to a different drain structured SC-PMOSFET. Unlike S/D structured SC-PMOSFET, dgm/gm of LDD structured SC-PMOSFET appears with one straight line about Qb, therefore, this model is dependent of drain structure.

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경사하강법을 이용한 낸드 플래시 메모리기반 저장 장치의 고효율 수명 예측 및 예외처리 방법 (High Efficiency Life Prediction and Exception Processing Method of NAND Flash Memory-based Storage using Gradient Descent Method)

  • 이현섭
    • 융합정보논문지
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    • 제11권11호
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2021
  • 최근 빅데이터를 수용하기 위한 대용량 저장 장치가 필요한 엔터프라이즈 저장 시스템에서는 비용과 크기 대비 직접도가 높은 대용량의 플래시 메모리 기반 저장 장치를 많이 사용하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 엔터프라이즈 대용량 저장 장치의 신뢰도와 이용성에 직접적인 영향을 주는 플래시 메모리 미디어의 수명을 극대화 하기 위해 경사하강법을 적용한 고효율 수명 예측 방법을 제안한다. 이를 위해 본 논문에서는 불량 발생 빈도를 학습하기 위한 메타 데이터를 저장하는 매트릭스의 구조를 제안하고 메타데이터를 이용한 비용 모델을 제안한다. 또한 학습된 범위를 벗어난 불량이 발생 했을 때 예외 상황에서의 수명 예측 정책을 제안한다. 마지막으로 시뮬레이션을 통해 본 논문에서 제안하는 방법이 이전까지 플래시 메모리의 수명 예측을 위해 사용되어 온 고정 횟수 기반 수명 예측 방법과 예비 블록의 남은 비율을 기반으로 하는 수명 예측 방법 대비 수명을 극대화 할 수 있음을 증명하여 우수성을 확인했다.