• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction model of collapse

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A study on earthquake damage prediction system of gas facilities (도시가스시설물의 조기 지진피해평가시스템 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Kim, Ick-Hyun;Jung, Hyo-Soon;Jeong, Hyeok-Chang;Lee, Jong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.366-373
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    • 2006
  • In order to reduce the secondary earthquake disaster resulting from the damage of gas facilities it is indispensable to establish an early response system on the basis of damage prediction. In this study the procedure of damage prediction for gas facilities is proposed and applied to the gas supply model area. Model area is divided into several little blocks. The soil condition and the characteristics of facilities were investigated at each block. Using fragility curves of facilities the damage level was analyzed under various seismicities. It is confirmed that the exposure gas pipe line in several blocks is damaged seriously by the collapse of building structures.

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Probabilistic analysis of tunnel collapse: Bayesian method for detecting change points

  • Zhou, Binghua;Xue, Yiguo;Li, Shucai;Qiu, Daohong;Tao, Yufan;Zhang, Kai;Zhang, Xueliang;Xia, Teng
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.291-303
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    • 2020
  • The deformation of the rock surrounding a tunnel manifests due to the stress redistribution within the surrounding rock. By observing the deformation of the surrounding rock, we can not only determine the stability of the surrounding rock and supporting structure but also predict the future state of the surrounding rock. In this paper, we used grey system theory to analyse the factors that affect the deformation of the rock surrounding a tunnel. The results show that the 5 main influencing factors are longitudinal wave velocity, tunnel burial depth, groundwater development, surrounding rock support type and construction management level. Furthermore, we used seismic prospecting data, preliminary survey data and excavated section monitoring data to establish a neural network learning model to predict the total amount of deformation of the surrounding rock during tunnel collapse. Subsequently, the probability of a change in deformation in each predicted section was obtained by using a Bayesian method for detecting change points. Finally, through an analysis of the distribution of the change probability and a comparison with the actual situation, we deduced the survey mark at which collapse would most likely occur. Surface collapse suddenly occurred when the tunnel was excavated to this predicted distance. This work further proved that the Bayesian method can accurately detect change points for risk evaluation, enhancing the accuracy of tunnel collapse forecasting. This research provides a reference and a guide for future research on the probability analysis of tunnel collapse.

Estimation and Prediction of Financial Distress: Non-Financial Firms in Bursa Malaysia

  • HIONG, Hii King;JALIL, Muhammad Farhan;SENG, Andrew Tiong Hock
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2021
  • Altman's Z-score is used to measure a company's financial health and to predict the probability that a company will collapse within 2 years. It is proven to be very accurate to forecast bankruptcy in a wide variety of contexts and markets. The goal of this study is to use Altman's Z-score model to forecast insolvency in non-financial publicly traded enterprises. Non-financial firms are a significant industry in Malaysia, and current trends of consolidation and long-term government subsidies make assessing the financial health of such businesses critical not just for the owners, but also for other stakeholders. The sample of this study includes 84 listed companies in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Of the 84 companies, 52 are considered high risk, and 32 are considered low-risk companies. Secondary data for the analysis was gathered from chosen companies' financial reports. The findings of this study show that the Altman model may be used to forecast a company's financial collapse. It dispelled any reservations about the model's legitimacy and the utility of applying it to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy in a company. The findings of this study have significant consequences for investors, creditors, and corporate management. Portfolio managers may make better selections by not investing in companies that have proved to be in danger of failing if they understand the variables that contribute to corporate distress.

A Study on Experimental Prediction of Landslide in Korea Granite Weathered Soil using Scaled-down Model Test (축소모형 실험을 통한 국내 화강암 풍화토의 산사태 예측 실험 연구)

  • Son, In-Hwan;Oh, Yong-Thak;Lee, Su-Gon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.439-447
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    • 2019
  • In this study, experiments were conducted to establish appropriate measures for slopes with high risk of collapse and to obtain results for minimizing slope collapse damage by detecting the micro-displacement of soil in advance by installing a laser sensor and a vibration sensor in the landslide reduction model experiment. Also, the behavior characteristics of the soil layer due to rainfall and moisture ratio changes such as pore water pressure and moisture were analyzed through a landslide reduction model experiment. The artificial slope was created using granite weathering soil, and the resulting water ratio(water pressure, water) changes were measured at different rainfall conditions of 200mm/hr and 400mm/hr. Laser sensors and vibration sensors were applied to analyze the surface displacement, and the displacement time were compared with each other by video analysis. Experiments have shown that higher rainfall intensity takes shorter time to reach the limit, and increase in the pore water pressure takes shorter time as well. Although the landslide model test does not fully reflect the site conditions, measurements of the time of detection of displacement generation using vibration sensors show that the timing of collapse is faster than the method using laser sensors. If ground displacement measurements using sensors are continuously carried out in preparation for landslides, it is considered highly likely to be utilized as basic data for predicting slope collapse, reducing damage, and activating the measurement industry.

Tunnel Deformation in Shallow Unconsolidated Ground by Using Strain-Softening Model (변형연화모델을 이용한 미고결 지반의 터널변형)

  • Seo, In-Shik;Kim, Byung-Tak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2007
  • In case of an urban tunnel, the displacement of ground base controls the tunnel design because it is built on shallow and unconsolidated ground many times. There are more insufficiency to describe the ground movement which coincides in the measured result of the situ because the design of an urban tunnel is dependent on the method of numerical analysis used to the existing elastic and elasto-plastic models. We studied about the prediction for the ground movement of a shallow tunnel in unconsolidated ground, mechanism of collapse, and settlement. Also this paper shows comparison with the existing elastic and elasto-plastic model using the unlinear analysis of the strain-softening model. We can model the real ground movement as the increasement of ground surface inclination or occurrence of shear band by using strain-softening model for the result of ground movement of an urban NATM tunnel.

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INFLOWS IN MASSIVE STAR FORMATION REGIONS

  • WU, YUEFANG;LIU, TIE;QIN, SHENGLI
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.93-97
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    • 2015
  • How high-mass stars form is currently unclear. Calculations suggest that the radiation pressure of a forming star can halt spherical infall, preventing further growth when it reaches $10M_{\odot}$. Two major theoretical models on the further growth of stellar mass have been proposed. One model suggests the merging of less massive stellar objects, and the other is through accretion, but with the help of a disk. Inflow motions are key evidence for how forming stars gain further mass to build up massive stars. Recent developments in technology have boosted the search for inflow motion. A number of high-mass collapse candidates were obtained with single dish observations, and mostly showed blue profiles. Infalling signatures seem to be more common in regions which have developed radiation pressure than in younger cores, which is the opposite of the theoretical prediction and is also very different from observations of low mass star formation. Interferometer studies so far confirm this tendency with more obvious blue profiles or inverse P Cygni profiles. Results seem to favor the accretion model. However, the evolution of the infall motion in massive star forming cores needs to be further explored. Direct evidence for monolithic or competitive collapse processes is still lacking. ALMA will enable us to probe more detail of the gravitional processes.

A PARAMETRIC SENSITIVITY STUDY OF GDI SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS USING A 3-D TRANSIENT MODEL

  • Comer, M.A.;Bowen, P.J.;Sapsford, S.M.;Kwon, S.I.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 2004
  • Potential fuel economy improvements and environmental legislation have renewed interest in Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) engines. Computational models of fuel injection and mixing processes pre-ignition are being developed for engine optimisation. These highly transient thermofluid models require verification against temporally and spatially resolved data-sets. The authors have previously established the capability of PDA to provide suitable temporally and spatially resolved spray characteristics such as mean droplet size, velocity components and qualitative mass distribution. This paper utilises this data-set to assess the predictive capability of a numerical model for GDI spray prediction. After a brief description of the two-phase model and discretisation sensitivity, the influence of initial spray conditions is discussed. A minimum of 5 initial global spray characteristics are required to model the downstream spray characteristics adequately under isothermal, atmospheric conditions. Verification of predicted transient spray characteristics such as the hollow-cone, cone collapse, head vortex, stratification and penetration are discussed, and further improvements to modelling GDI sprays proposed.

The analysis of flow over the bridge using preconditioned Navier-Stokes code (예조건화 Navier-Stokes 코드를 이용한 교각 유동해석)

  • Yoo, Il-Yong;Lee, Seung-Soo;Park, Si-Hyong
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.03b
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    • pp.13-16
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    • 2008
  • After the collapse of the Tacoma bay bridge at Tacoma Washington, the accurate prediction of aerodynamics became crucial to the sound design of bridges. CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) becomes important tool for the prediction on wind effects on the bridge due to the recent development of CFD. The usage of CFD is further prompted by the advantages in using CFD, such as low-cost and fast feed-back of design. In this paper, an unsteady compressible Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes code is used for the computation of the flow over bridges. Coakley's ��q-${\omega}$ �� two-equation turbulence model is used for the turbulent eddy viscosity. For accurate and stable computations, the local preconditioning method is adapted to the code. Aerodynamic characteristics of a couple bridges are presented to show the validity and the accuracy of the method.

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Numerical Simulation for Prediction of Existing Cavity Location on Explosion-Induced Building Collapse (폭발에 의한 건축물 붕괴 시 매몰공동 위치 예측에 관한 수치해석 사례 연구)

  • Jung, Jahe;Park, Hoon;Kim, Kwang Yeom;Shin, Hyu-Soung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.94-101
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    • 2015
  • When a severe disaster such as a building collapse occurs, a first priority for rapid rescue is to find a location where people are highly expected to be buried but alive. It is, however, very difficult to correctly designate the location of such cavities by conventional geophysical survey due to a pile of debris of building members. In this study, location of possible lifeguard cavities were evaluated through a series of simulations of building collapse by explosion depending on the height of the building, a structure of basement floor and a location of explosion. Three types of building structure: five-story, ten-story and fifteen-story were prepared as a model for the simulation. As a results, in the case of low building, only basement floor partially collapsed. On the other hand, in the case of high building, a collapsed range on the inside of the building increased and lifeguard spaces were formed only in the lateral side or corner of the building. In addition, when a wall exists in the basement floor, the possibility that cavities could be formed increased compared to the cases without wall. However, for the fifteen-story building case, no possible lifeguard cavity was found. It is noted that for a high rise building, the height of building more affect forming of safeguard cavity than the structure of the basement floor.

Risk-Targeted Seismic Performance of Steel Ordinary Concentrically Braced Frames Considering Seismic Hazard (지진재해도를 고려한 철골 보통중심가새골조의 위험도기반 내진성능)

  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Suk-Jae;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.371-380
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    • 2017
  • The risk-targeted seismic design concept was first included in ASCE/SEI 7-10 to address problems related to the uniform-hazard based seismic concept that has been constructed without explicitly considering probabilistic uncertainties in the collapse capacities of structures. However, this concept is not yet reflected to the current Korean building code(KBC) because of insufficient strong earthquake data occurred at the Korean peninsula and little information on the collapse capacities of structures. This study evaluates the risk-targeted seismic performance of steel ordinary concentrically braced frames(OCBFs). To do this, the collapse capacities of prototype steel OCBFs are assessed with various analysis parameters including building locations, building heights and soil conditions. The seismic hazard curves are developed using an empirical spectral shape prediction model that is capable of reflecting the characteristics of earthquake records. The collapse probabilities of the prototype steel OCBFs located at the Korean major cities are then evaluated using the risk integral concept. As a result, analysis parameters considerably influence the collapse probabilities of steel OCBFs. The collapse probabilities of taller steel OCBFs exceed the target seismic risk of 1 percent in 50 years, which the introduction of the height limitation of steel OCBFs into the future KBC should be considered.