• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction model of collapse

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Assessment of Steam Generator Tubes with Multiple Axial Through-Wall Cracks (축방향 다중관통균열이 존재하는 증기발생기 세관 평가법)

  • Moon, Seong-In;Chang, Yoon-Suk;Kim, Young-Jin;Lee, Jin-Ho;Song, Myung-Ho;Choi, Young-Hwan
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.28 no.11
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    • pp.1741-1751
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    • 2004
  • It is commonly requested that the steam generator tubes wall-thinned in excess of 40% should be plugged. However, the plugging criterion is known to be too conservative for some locations and types of defects and its application is limited to a single crack in spite of the fact that the occurrence of multiple through-wall cracks is more common in general. The objective of this research is to propose the optimum failure prediction models for two adjacent through-wall cracks in steam generator tubes. The conservatism of the present plugging criteria was reviewed using the existing failure prediction models for a single crack, and six new failure prediction models for multiple through-wall cracks have been introduced. Then, in order to determine the optimum ones among these new local or global failure prediction models, a series of plastic collapse tests and corresponding finite element analyses for two adjacent through-wall cracks in thin plate were carried out. Thereby, the reaction force model, plastic zone contact model and COD (Crack-Opening Displacement) base model were selected as the optimum ones for assessment of steam generator tubes with multiple through-wall cracks. The selected optimum failure prediction models, finally, were used to estimate the coalescence pressure of two adjacent through-wall cracks in steam generator tubes.

Development of Optimum Global Failure Prediction Model for Steam Generator Tube with Two Parallel Cracks (평행한 두 개의 균열이 존재하는 증기발생기 세관의 최적 광범위파손 예측모델 개발)

  • Moon Seong ln;Chang Yoon Suk;Lee Jin Ho;Song Myung Ho;Choi Young Hwan;Kim Joung Soo;Kim Young Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.29 no.5 s.236
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    • pp.754-761
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    • 2005
  • The 40\% of wall thickness criterion which has been used as a plugging rule of steam generator tubes is applicable only to a single cracked tube. In the previous studies performed by authors, several global failure prediction models were introduced to estimate the failure loads of steam generator tubes containing two adjacent parallel axial through-wall cracks. These models were applied for thin plates with two parallel cracks and the COD base model was selected as the optimum one. The objective of this study is to verify the applicability of the proposed optimum global failure prediction model for real steam generator tubes with two parallel axial through-wall cracks. For the sake of this, a series of plastic collapse tests and finite element analyses have been carried out fur the steam generator tubes with two machined parallel axial through-wall cracks. Thereby, it was proven that the proposed optimum failure prediction model can be used as the best one to estimate the failure load quite well. Also, interaction effects between two adjacent cracks were assessed through additional finite element analyses to investigate the effect on the global failure behavior.

Research on the Production of Risk Maps on Cut Slope Using Weather Information and Adaboost Model (기상정보와 Adaboost 모델을 이용한 깎기비탈면 위험도 지도 개발 연구)

  • Woo, Yonghoon;Kim, Seung-Hyun;Kim, Jin uk;Park, GwangHae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.663-671
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    • 2020
  • Recently, there have been many natural disasters in Korea, not only in forest areas but also in urban areas, and the national requirements for them are increasing. In particular, there is no pre-disaster information system that can systematically manage the collapse of the slope of the national highway. In this study, big data analysis was conducted on the factors causing slope collapse based on the detailed investigation report on the slope collapse of national roads in Gangwon-do and Gyeongsang-do areas managed by the Cut Slope Management System (CSMS) and the basic survey of slope failures. Based on the analysis results, a slope collapse risk prediction model was established through Adaboost, a classification-based machine learning model, reflecting the collapse slope location and weather information. It also developed a visualization map for the risk of slope collapse, which is a visualization program, to show that it can be used for preemptive disaster prevention measures by identifying the risk of slope due to changes in weather conditions.

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF DATA-BASED MODELS FOR ESTIMATING COLLAPSE MOMENTS OF WALL-THINNED PIPE BENDS AND ELBOWS

  • Kim, Dong-Su;Kim, Ju-Hyun;Na, Man-Gyun;Kim, Jin-Weon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.323-330
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    • 2012
  • The development of data-based models requires uncertainty analysis to explain the accuracy of their predictions. In this paper, an uncertainty analysis of the support vector regression (SVR) model, which is a data-based model, was performed because previous research showed that the SVR method accurately estimates the collapse moments of wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows. The uncertainty analysis method used in this study was an analytic uncertainty analysis method, and estimates with a 95% confidence interval were obtained for 370 test data points. From the results, the prediction interval (PI) was very narrow, which means that the predicted values are quite accurate. Therefore, the proposed SVR method can be used effectively to assess and validate the integrity of the wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows.

A Basic Study on the Prediction of Collapse of Tunnels Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망 기법을 이용한 터널 붕괴 예측에 관한 기초 연구)

  • Kim, Hong-Heum;Lim, Heui-Dae
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2016
  • Collapse of a tunnel can occur anytime, anywhere due to the special characteristics of tunnel structures and unexpected geological conditions during construction. Tunnel collapse will lead to economic losses and casualties. So various studies are continually being conducted to prevent economic losses, casualties and accidents. In this study, we analyzed data from 56 domestic construction tunnel collapse sites, and input factors to be applied to the artificial neural network were selected by the sensitivity analysis. And for the artificial neural network model design studies were carried out with the selected input factors and optimized ANN model to predict the type of tunnel collapse was determined. By using it, in 12 sites where tunnel collapse occurred applicability evaluation was conducted. Thus, the tunnel collapse type predictability was verified. These results will be able to be used as basic data for preventing and reinforcing collapse in the tunnel construction site.

Ground-Motion Prediction Equations based on refined data for dynamic time-history analysis

  • Moghaddam, Salar Arian;Ghafory-Ashtiany, Mohsen;Soghrat, Mohammadreza
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.779-807
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    • 2016
  • Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are essential tools in seismic hazard analysis. With the introduction of probabilistic approaches for the estimation of seismic response of structures, also known as, performance based earthquake engineering framework; new tasks are defined for response spectrum such as the reference criterion for effective structure-specific selection of ground motions for nonlinear time history analysis. One of the recent efforts to introduce a high quality databank of ground motions besides the corresponding selection scheme based on the broadband spectral consistency is the development of SIMBAD (Selected Input Motions for displacement-Based Assessment and Design), which is designed to improve the reliability of spectral values at all natural periods by removing noise with modern proposed approaches. In this paper, a new global GMPE is proposed by using selected ground motions from SIMBAD to improve the reliability of computed spectral shape indicators. To determine regression coefficients, 204 pairs of horizontal components from 35 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from Mw 5 to Mw 7.1 and epicentral distances lower than 40 km selected from SIMBAD are used. The proposed equation is compared with similar models both qualitatively and quantitatively. After the verification of model by several goodness-of-fit measures, the epsilon values as the spectral shape indicator are computed and the validity of available prediction equations for correlation of the pairs of epsilon values is examined. General consistency between predictions by new model and others, especially, in short periods is confirmed, while, at longer periods, there are meaningful differences between normalized residuals and correlation coefficients between pairs of them estimated by new model and those are computed by other empirical equations. A simple collapse assessment example indicate possible improvement in the correlation between collapse capacity and spectral shape indicators (${\varepsilon}$) up to 20% by selection of a more applicable GMPE for calculation of ${\varepsilon}$.

A neural network model to assess the hysteretic energy demand in steel moment resisting frames

  • Akbas, Bulent
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.177-193
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    • 2006
  • Determining the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity and level of damage of the structure to a predefined earthquake ground motion is a highly non-linear problem and is one of the questions involved in predicting the structure's response for low-performance levels (life safe, near collapse, collapse) in performance-based earthquake resistant design. Neural Network (NN) analysis offers an alternative approach for investigation of non-linear relationships in engineering problems. The results of NN yield a more realistic and accurate prediction. A NN model can help the engineer to predict the seismic performance of the structure and to design the structural elements, even when there is not adequate information at the early stages of the design process. The principal aim of this study is to develop and test multi-layered feedforward NNs trained with the back-propagation algorithm to model the non-linear relationship between the structural and ground motion parameters and the hysteretic energy demand in steel moment resisting frames. The approach adapted in this study was shown to be capable of providing accurate estimates of hysteretic energy demand by using the six design parameters.

Surface Subsidence according to Progressive Collapse of Circular opening (원형공동의 점진적인 붕락에 따른 지표침하특성)

  • 지정배;김종우
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2000
  • In order to investigate the effect of progressive collapse of underground circular opening on surface subsidence, laboratory model tests were performed. The modelling materials were sand which has been used as KS standard. Six test models which had respectively different depths of openings were produced. Surface subsidence and horizontal displacements were measured according to progressive collapse of underground opening. Some subsidence prediction method such as NCB method, profile function method and influence function method were considered to predict the subsidence of sand models. The profile function method approximated by Gaussian error function was finally suggested as the most appropriate to sand models.

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Basic Research for Resistance Prediction of Aluminium Alloy Plate Girders Subjected to Patch Loading (패치로딩을 받는 알루미늄 합금 플레이트 거더의 강도 예측에 대한 기초 연구)

  • Oh, Young-Cheol;Bae, Dong-Gyun;Ko, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.218-227
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, it performed to the elastic-plastic large deflection series analysis using the experimental model and predicted a failure mode and ultimate strength. The collapse mode of numerical analysis model is formed a plastic hinge on loaded flange and consistent with the collapse mode of experimental model. Also, The yield line is formed in the web could observed that have occurred the crippling collapse mode and the ultimate loads of the experimental model and numerical analysis model have maintained linearly Means 1.07, Standard deviation 0.04, Coefficient of variation(COV) 0.04 and the result of ultimate loads have appeared approximately 8% error rate. it was found that very satisfied to the experimental results and the applied rules. if it is considered to be maintain a reasonable safety level, it is possible to predict the failure modes of aluminium alloy plate girders and ultimate loads.

A Study on behavior of Slope Failure Using Field Excavation Experiment (현장 굴착 실험을 통한 사면붕괴 거동 연구)

  • Park, Sung-Yong;Jung, Hee-Don;Kim, Young-Ju;Kim, Yong-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.5
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the occurrence of landslides has been increasing over the years due to the extreme weather event. Developments of landslides monitoring technology that reduce damage caused by landslide are urgently needed. Therefore, in this study, a strain ratio sensor was developed to predict the ground behavior during the slope failure, and the change in surface ground displacement was observed as slope failed on the field model experiment. As a result, in the slope failure, the ground displacement process increases the risk of collapse as the inverse displacement approaches zero. It is closely related to the prediction of precursor. In all cases, increase in displacement and reverse speed of inverse displacement with time was observed during the slope failure, and it is very important event for monitoring collapse phenomenon of risky slopes. In the future, it can be used as disaster prevention technology to contribute in reduction of landslide damage and activation of measurement industry.