• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction error methods

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Determination of Nitrogen in Fresh and Dry Leaf of Apple by Near Infrared Technology (근적외 분석법을 응용한 사과의 생잎과 건조잎의 질소분석)

  • Zhang, Guang-Cai;Seo, Sang-Hyun;Kang, Yeon-Bok;Han, Xiao-Ri;Park, Woo-Churl
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.259-265
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    • 2004
  • A quicker method was developed for foliar analysis in diagnosis of nitrogen in apple trees based on multivariate calibration procedure using partial least squares regression (PLSR) and principal component regression (PCR) to establish the relationship between reflectance spectra in the near infrared region and nitrogen content of fresh- and dry-leaf. Several spectral pre-processing methods such as smoothing, mean normalization, multiplicative scatter correction (MSC) and derivatives were used to improve the robustness and performance of the calibration models. Norris first derivative with a seven point segment and a gap of six points on MSC gave the best result of partial least squares-1 PLS-1) model for dry-leaf samples with root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) equal to $0.699g\;kg^{-1}$, and that the Savitzky-Golay first derivate with a seven point convolution and a quadratic polynomial on MSC gave the best results of PLS-1 model for fresh-samples with RMSEP of $1.202g\;kg^{-1}$. The best PCR model was obtained with Savitzky-Golay first derivative using a seven point convolution and a quadratic polynomial on mean normalization for dry leaf samples with RMSEP of $0.553g\;kg^{-1}$, and obtained with the Savitzky-Golay first derivate using a seven point convolution and a quadratic polynomial for fresh samples with RMSEP of $1.047g\;kg^{-1}$. The results indicate that nitrogen can be determined by the near infrared reflectance (NIR) technology for fresh- and dry-leaf of apple.

Can the body composition of crossbred dairy cattle be predicted by equations for beef cattle?

  • Neves, Maria Luciana Menezes Wanderley;de Souza, Evaristo Jorge Oliveira;Veras, Robson Magno Liberal;de Campos Valadares Filho, Sebastiao;Marcondes, Marcos Inacio;da Silva, Gabriel Santana;Barreto, Ligia Maria Gomes;de Andrade Ferreira, Marcelo;Veras, Antonia Sherlanea Chaves
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.31 no.10
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    • pp.1604-1610
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The aim of the study was to evaluate the efficiency of the Hankins and Howe (HH46), Valadares Filho (V06), and Marcondes (M12) equations for predicting the physical and chemical composition of dairy crossbred bulls carcasses, as well as the chemical composition of their empty bodies. Methods: This study was conducted using 30 dairy crossbred bulls. One group of five animals was slaughtered at the beginning of the experiment, and the remaining were slaughtered 112 days later. Animals were distributed in a completely randomized design into treatments consisting different levels of concentrate (0%, 17%, 34%, 51%, and 68%). The physical and chemical compositions of the cattle were obtained from the right half of the carcass and using samples taken between the 9th and 11th ribs of the left half of the carcass. The estimated and experimentally determined values were compared using the correlation and concordance coefficient, as well as the mean square error of prediction (MSEP) and its components. Results: The HH46 equations were better at estimating the amount of muscle plus fat in the carcass. The amount of bone in the carcasses could not be well estimated by the HH46 and M12 models. The M12, HH46, and V06 equations were worst at estimating the amounts of protein, ether extract, and water in the carcass, respectively. In the empty body, the amounts of protein and water were well estimated by the HH46 equations. Protein, ether extract, and water were accurately estimated by the V06 equations, and ether extract by the M12 equations. Conclusion: The physical and chemical composition of dairy crossbred bull carcasses, as well as the chemical composition of their empty bodies, can be predicted using the equations tested here. The amount of bone in these carcasses could not be accurately predicted.

A Study on the Allowable Bearing Capacity of Pile by Driving Formulas (각종 항타공식에 의한 말뚝의 허용지지력 연구)

  • 이진수;장용채;김용걸
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2002.03a
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    • pp.197-203
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    • 2002
  • The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also in cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : A a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, in was showed that Terzaghi & Peck > Chin > Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable , time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering News. Modified Engineering News. Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program ) analysis for relation, respectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)}$ $Q_{u(EOID)}$ = 0.971 $t_{0.1}$, 0.968 $t_{0.1}$, 1.192 $t_{0.1}$, 0.88 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$

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Simultaneous Spectrophotometric Determination of Copper, Nickel, and Zinc Using 1-(2-Thiazolylazo)-2-Naphthol in the Presence of Triton X-100 Using Chemometric Methods (화학계량학적 방법을 사용한 Triton X-100이 함유된 1-(2-Thiazolylazo)-2-Naphthol을 사용한 구리, 니켈과 아연의 동시 분광광도법적 정량)

  • Low, Kah Hin;Zain, Sharifuddin Md.;Abas, Mhd. Radzi;Misran, Misni;Mohd, Mustafa Ali
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.717-726
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    • 2009
  • Multivariate models were developed for the simultaneous spectrophotometric determination of copper (II), nickel (II) and zinc (II) in water with 1-(2-thiazolylazo)-2-naphthol as chromogenic reagent in the presence of Triton X-100. To overcome the drawback of spectral interferences, principal component regression (PCR) and partial least square (PLS) multivariate calibration approaches were applied. Performances were validated with several test sets, and their results were then compared. In general, no significant difference in analytical performance between PLS and PCR models. The root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) using three components for $Cu^{2+}$, $Ni^{2+}$ and $Zn^{2+}$ were 0.018, 0.010, 0.011 ppm, respectively. Figures of merit such as sensitivity, analytical sensitivity, limit of detection (LOD) were also estimated. High reliability was achieved when the proposed procedure was applied to simultaneous determination of $Cu^{2+}$, $Ni^{2+}$ and $Zn^{2+}$ in synthetic mixture and tap water.

Development of Nondestructive Evaluation System for Internal Quality of Watermelon using Acoustic Wave (음파를 이용한 비파괴 수박 내부품질 판정 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Dong-Soo;Lee, Young-Hee;Choi, Seung-Ryul;Kim, Gi-Young;Park, Jong-Min
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2009
  • Watermelons (Citrulus vulgaris Schrad) are usually sorted manually by weight, appearance, and acoustic impulse, so grading of maturity and internal quality is subject to inaccuracies. It was necessary to develop a nondestructive evaluation technique of internal watermelon quality to reduce human error. Thus, acoustic characteristics related to internal quality factors were analyzed. Among these factors, three (ripeness, presence of an internal cavity, and blood-colored flesh) were selected for evaluation. The number of peaks and the sum of peak amplitudes for watermelons with blood-colored flesh were lower than for normal fruits. The portable evaluation system has an impact mechanism, a microphone sensor, a signal processing board, an LCD panel, and a battery. A performance test was conducted in the field. The internal quality evaluation model showed 87% prediction accuracy. Validation was conducted on 72 samples. The accuracy of quality evaluation was 83%. The quality of samples was evaluated by an inspector using conventional methods (hitting the watermelon and listening to the sounds), and then compared with prototype results. The quality evaluation accuracy of the prototype was better than that of the inspector. This nondestructive quality evaluation system could be useful in the field, warehouse, and supermarket

A Comparative Model Study on the Intermittent Demand Forecast of Air Cargo - Focusing on Croston and Holts models - (항공화물의 간헐적 수요예측에 대한 비교 모형 연구 - Croston모형과 Holts모형을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Byung-Cheol;Park, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • A variety of methods have been proposed through a number of studies on sophisticated demand forecasting models that can reduce logistics costs. These studies mainly determine the applicable demand forecasting model based on the pattern of demand quantity and try to judge the accuracy of the model through statistical verification. Demand patterns can be broadly divided into regularity and irregularity. A regular pattern means that the order is regular and the order quantity is constant. In this case, predicting demand mainly through regression model or time series model was used. However, this demand is called "intermittent demand" when irregular and fluctuating amount of order quantity is large, and there is a high possibility of error in demand prediction with existing regression model or time series model. For items that show intermittent demand, predicting demand is mainly done using Croston or HOLTS. In this study, we analyze the demand patterns of various items of air cargo with intermittent patterns and apply the most appropriate model to predict and verify the demand. In this process, intermittent optimal demand forecasting model of air cargo is proposed by analyzing the fit of various models of air cargo by item and region.

A Study on the Data Cleaning and Standardization of National Ecosystem Survey in Korea (전국자연환경조사 데이터 정제와 표준화 방안 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-Su;Song, Kyohong;Kim, Mokyoung;Kim, Kidong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.380-389
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    • 2020
  • Research on diagnosing and predicting the response of ecosystems caused by environmental changes such as artificial disturbance and climate change is emerging as the most important issue of biodiversity and ecosystem researches. This study aims to clean, standardize, and provide the results of National Ecosystem Survey which should be considered fundamentally in diagnosing and predicting ecosystem changes in the form of dataset. To refine and clean the dataset we developed a simple verification program based on the fifth National Ecosystem Survey Guideline and applied that program to the data from the second (1997~2005), third (2006~2013) and fourth (2014~2018) National Ecosystem Survey. Data quality control processes were implemented including (1) standardization of terminology, (2) similar data table integration, (3) unnecessary attribute and error elimination, (4) unification of different input items, (5) data arrangement in codes, and (6) code mapping for input items. These approaches and methods are the first attempt propose an option for ecological data standardization in Korea. The standardized dataset of National Ecosystem Survey in Korea will be easily accessible, reusable for both researchers and public. In addition, we expect it will contribute to the establishment of diverse environmental policies concerning environmental assessments, habitat conservation, prediction of endangered species distribution and ecological risks due to climate change. The dataset through this study is open freely online via EcoBank (nie-ecobank.kr) which is the first ecological information portal system in Korea developed by National Institute of Ecology.

Youtube Mukbang and Online Delivery Orders: Analysis of Impacts and Predictive Model (유튜브 먹방과 온라인 배달 주문: 영향력 분석과 예측 모형)

  • Choi, Sarah;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2022
  • One of the most important current features of food related industry is the growth of food delivery service. Another notable food related culture is, with the advent of Youtube, the popularity of Mukbang, which refers to content that records eating. Based on these background, this study intended to focus on two things. First, we tried to see the impact of Youtube Mukbang and the sentiments of Mukbang comments on the number of related food deliveries. Next, we tried to set up the predictive modeling of chicken delivery order with machine learning method. We used Youtube Mukbang comments data as well as weather related data as main independent variables. The dependent variable used in this study is the number of delivery order of fried chicken. The period of data used in this study is from June 3, 2015 to September 30, 2019, and a total of 1,580 data were used. For the predictive modeling, we used machine learning methods such as linear regression, ridge, lasso, random forest, and gradient boost. We found that the sentiment of Youtube Mukbang and comments have impacts on the number of delivery orders. The prediction model with Mukban data we set up in this study had better performances than the existing models without Mukbang data. We also tried to suggest managerial implications to the food delivery service industry.

Deep Learning based Estimation of Depth to Bearing Layer from In-situ Data (딥러닝 기반 국내 지반의 지지층 깊이 예측)

  • Jang, Young-Eun;Jung, Jaeho;Han, Jin-Tae;Yu, Yonggyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2022
  • The N-value from the Standard Penetration Test (SPT), which is one of the representative in-situ test, is an important index that provides basic geological information and the depth of the bearing layer for the design of geotechnical structures. In the aspect of time and cost-effectiveness, there is a need to carry out a representative sampling test. However, the various variability and uncertainty are existing in the soil layer, so it is difficult to grasp the characteristics of the entire field from the limited test results. Thus the spatial interpolation techniques such as Kriging and IDW (inverse distance weighted) have been used for predicting unknown point from existing data. Recently, in order to increase the accuracy of interpolation results, studies that combine the geotechnics and deep learning method have been conducted. In this study, based on the SPT results of about 22,000 holes of ground survey, a comparative study was conducted to predict the depth of the bearing layer using deep learning methods and IDW. The average error among the prediction results of the bearing layer of each analysis model was 3.01 m for IDW, 3.22 m and 2.46 m for fully connected network and PointNet, respectively. The standard deviation was 3.99 for IDW, 3.95 and 3.54 for fully connected network and PointNet. As a result, the point net deep learing algorithm showed improved results compared to IDW and other deep learning method.

Prediction of Postoperative Lung Function in Lung Cancer Patients Using Machine Learning Models

  • Oh Beom Kwon;Solji Han;Hwa Young Lee;Hye Seon Kang;Sung Kyoung Kim;Ju Sang Kim;Chan Kwon Park;Sang Haak Lee;Seung Joon Kim;Jin Woo Kim;Chang Dong Yeo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.86 no.3
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    • pp.203-215
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    • 2023
  • Background: Surgical resection is the standard treatment for early-stage lung cancer. Since postoperative lung function is related to mortality, predicted postoperative lung function is used to determine the treatment modality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of linear regression and machine learning models. Methods: We extracted data from the Clinical Data Warehouse and developed three sets: set I, the linear regression model; set II, machine learning models omitting the missing data: and set III, machine learning models imputing the missing data. Six machine learning models, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), Ridge regression, ElasticNet, Random Forest, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) were implemented. The forced expiratory volume in 1 second measured 6 months after surgery was defined as the outcome. Five-fold cross-validation was performed for hyperparameter tuning of the machine learning models. The dataset was split into training and test datasets at a 70:30 ratio. Implementation was done after dataset splitting in set III. Predictive performance was evaluated by R2 and mean squared error (MSE) in the three sets. Results: A total of 1,487 patients were included in sets I and III and 896 patients were included in set II. In set I, the R2 value was 0.27 and in set II, LightGBM was the best model with the highest R2 value of 0.5 and the lowest MSE of 154.95. In set III, LightGBM was the best model with the highest R2 value of 0.56 and the lowest MSE of 174.07. Conclusion: The LightGBM model showed the best performance in predicting postoperative lung function.