• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction error methods

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Wind Speed Prediction using WAsP for Complex Terrain (복합지형에 대한 WAsP의 풍속 예측성 평가)

  • Yoon, Kwang-Yong;Yoo, Neung-Soo;Paek, In-Su
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.28 no.B
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2008
  • A linear wind prediction program, WAsP, was employed to predict wind speed at two different sites located in complex terrain in South Korea. The reference data obtained at locations more than 7 kilometers away from the prediction sites were used for prediction. The predictions from the linear model were compared with the measured data at the two prediction sites. Two compensation methods such as a self-prediction error method and a delta ruggedness index (RIX) method were used to improve the wind speed prediction from WAsP and showed a good possibility. The wind speed prediction errors reached within 3.5 % with the self prediction error method, and within 10% with the delta RIX method. The self prediction error method can be used as a compensation method to reduce the wind speed prediction error in WAsP.

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Wind Speed Prediction using WAsP for Complex Terrain (WAsP을 이용한 복잡지형의 풍속 예측 및 보정)

  • Yoon, Kwang-Yong;Paek, In-Su;Yoo, Neung-Soo
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.268-273
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    • 2008
  • A linear wind prediction program, WAsP, was employed to predict wind speed at two different sites located in complex terrain in South Korea. The reference data obtained at locations more than 7 kilometers away from the prediction sites were used for prediction. The predictions from the linear model were compared with the measured data at the two prediction sites. Two compensation methods such as a self-prediction error method and a delta ruggedness index (RIX) method were used to improve the wind speed prediction from WAsP and showed a good possibility. The wind speed prediction errors reached within 3.5 % with the self prediction error method, and within 10% with the delta RIX method. The self prediction error method can be used as a compensation method to reduce the wind speed prediction error in WAsP.

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Prediction System of Thermal Errors Implemented on Machine Tools with Open Architecture Controller (개방형 CNC를 갖는 공작기계에 실장한 열변형량 예측 시스템)

  • Kim, Sun-Ho;Ko, Tae-Jo;Ahn, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 2008
  • The accuracy of the machine tools is degraded because of thermal error of structure due to thermal variation. To improve the accuracy of a machine tools, measurement and prediction of thermal error is very important. The main part of thermal source is spindle due to high speed with friction. The thermal error of spindle is very important because it is over 10% in total thermals errors. In this paper, the suitable thermal error prediction technology for machine tools with open architecture controller is developed and implemented to machine tools. Two thermal error prediction technologies, neural network and multi-linear regression, are investigated in several methods. The multi-linear regression method is more effective for implementation to CNC. The developed thermal error prediction technology is implemented on the internal function of CNC.

A Hybrid Data Mining Technique Using Error Pattern Modeling (오차 패턴 모델링을 이용한 Hybrid 데이터 마이닝 기법)

  • Hur, Joon;Kim, Jong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a new hybrid data mining technique using error pattern modeling to improve classification accuracy when the data type of a target variable is binary. The proposed method increases prediction accuracy by combining two different supervised learning methods. That is, the algorithm extracts a subset of training cases that are predicted inconsistently by both methods, and models error patterns from the cases. Based on the error pattern model, the Predictions of two different methods are merged to generate final prediction. The proposed method has been tested using practical 10 data sets. The analysis results show that the performance of proposed method is superior to the existing methods such as artificial neural networks and decision tree induction.

A Simple Bias-Correction Rule for the Apparent Prediction Error

  • Beong-Soo So
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.146-154
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    • 1995
  • By using simple Taylor expansion, we derive an easy bias-correction rule for the apparent prodiction error of the predictor defined by the general M-estimators with respect to an arbitrary measure of prediction error. Our method has a considerable computational advantage over the previous methods based on the resampling thchnique such as Cross-validaton and Boothtrap. Connections with AIC, Cross-Validation and Boothtrap are discussed too.

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A Signal-Level Prediction Scheme for Rain-Attenuation Compensation in Satellite Communication Linkes (위성 통신 링크에서 강우 감쇠 보상을 위한 신호 레벨 예측기법)

  • 임광재;황정환;김수영;이수인
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.25 no.6A
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    • pp.782-793
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a simple dynamical prediction scheme of the signal level which is attenuated and varied due to rain fading in satellite communication links using above 10GHz frequency bands. The proposed prediction scheme has four functional blocks for discrete-time low-pass filtering, slope-based prediction, mean-error correction and hybrid fixed/variable prediction margin allocation. Through simulations using Ka-band attenuation data obtained from the data measured over Ku-band by frequency-scaling, it is shown that the slope-based prediction with the mean-error correction has as small standard deviation of prediction error as below 1 dB, and that the error is about 1.5 to 2.5 times as small as that without the mean-error correction. The hybrid prediction margin allocation requires smaller average margin than those of both fixed and variable methods.

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A New Nonparametric Method for Prediction Based on Mean Squared Relative Errors (평균제곱상대오차에 기반한 비모수적 예측)

  • Jeong, Seok-Oh;Shin, Key-Il
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.255-264
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    • 2008
  • It is common in practice to use mean squared error(MSE) for prediction. Recently, Park and Shin (2005) and Jones et al. (2007) studied prediction based on mean squared relative error(MSRE). We proposed a new nonparametric way of prediction based on MSRE substituting Jones et al. (2007) and provided a small simulation study which highly supports the proposed method.

Lossless Compression Algorithm using Spatial and Temporal Information (시간과 공간정보를 이용한 무손실 압축 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Young Ro;Chung, Ji Yung
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.141-145
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we propose an efficient lossless compression algorithm using spatial and temporal information. The proposed method obtains higher lossless compression of images than other lossless compression techniques. It is divided into two parts, a motion adaptation based predictor part and a residual error coding part. The proposed nonlinear predictor can reduce prediction error by learning from its past prediction errors. The predictor decides the proper selection of the spatial and temporal prediction values according to each past prediction error. The reduced error is coded by existing context coding method. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has better performance than those of existing context modeling methods.

Feasibility study of deep learning based radiosensitivity prediction model of National Cancer Institute-60 cell lines using gene expression

  • Kim, Euidam;Chung, Yoonsun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.1439-1448
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    • 2022
  • Background: We investigated the feasibility of in vitro radiosensitivity prediction with gene expression using deep learning. Methods: A microarray gene expression of the National Cancer Institute-60 (NCI-60) panel was acquired from the Gene Expression Omnibus. The clonogenic surviving fractions at an absorbed dose of 2 Gy (SF2) from previous publications were used to measure in vitro radiosensitivity. The radiosensitivity prediction model was based on the convolutional neural network. The 6-fold cross-validation (CV) was applied to train and validate the model. Then, the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was applied by using the large-errored samples as a validation set, to determine whether the error was from the high bias of the folded CV. The criteria for correct prediction were defined as an absolute error<0.01 or a relative error<10%. Results: Of the 174 triplicated samples of NCI-60, 171 samples were correctly predicted with the folded CV. Through an additional LOOCV, one more sample was correctly predicted, representing a prediction accuracy of 98.85% (172 out of 174 samples). The average relative error and absolute errors of 172 correctly predicted samples were 1.351±1.875% and 0.00596±0.00638, respectively. Conclusion: We demonstrated the feasibility of a deep learning-based in vitro radiosensitivity prediction using gene expression.

Time Series Prediction Using a Multi-layer Neural Network with Low Pass Filter Characteristics (저주파 필터 특성을 갖는 다층 구조 신경망을 이용한 시계열 데이터 예측)

  • Min-Ho Lee
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.66-70
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    • 1997
  • In this paper a new learning algorithm for curvature smoothing and improved generalization for multi-layer neural networks is proposed. To enhance the generalization ability a constraint term of hidden neuron activations is added to the conventional output error, which gives the curvature smoothing characteristics to multi-layer neural networks. When the total cost consisted of the output error and hidden error is minimized by gradient-descent methods, the additional descent term gives not only the Hebbian learning but also the synaptic weight decay. Therefore it incorporates error back-propagation, Hebbian, and weight decay, and additional computational requirements to the standard error back-propagation is negligible. From the computer simulation of the time series prediction with Santafe competition data it is shown that the proposed learning algorithm gives much better generalization performance.

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