• 제목/요약/키워드: prediction equations

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쇄빙선 및 쇄빙상선에 대한 빙저항 추정식과 실측자료의 비교 분석 (A Comparative Study of Ice Resistance Estimation Equations with Measured Data for Icebreakers and Ice-Strengthened Cargo Vessels)

  • 최경식;이우람;이진경
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제43권2호
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2006
  • Ice resistance estimation equations based on model tests and full-scale sea trial data from many previous research articles are studied. Measured ice resistance data and its empirical/semi-empirical estimation equations are summarized in common format and are compared with each other, considering three ship categories, i.e, icebreakers, tug/supply vessels, ice-strengthened cargo vessels. The most suitable estimation methods or prediction equations are recommended based on this ice resistance data analysis.

Stress analysis of a new steel-concrete composite I-girder

  • Wang, Yamin;Shao, Yongbo
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2018
  • A new I-girder consisted of top concrete-filled tubular flange and corrugated web has been proved to have high resistance to both global buckling of the entire girder and local buckling of the web. This study carries out theoretical analysis and experimental tests for this new I-girder to investigate the stress distribution in the flanges and in the corrugated web. Based on some reasonable assumptions, theoretical equations for calculating the normal stress in the flanges and the shear stress in the corrugated web are presented. To verify the accuracy of the presented equations, experimental tests on two specimens were carried out, and the experimental results of stress distribution were used to assess the theoretical prediction. Comparison between the two results indicates that the presented theoretical equations have enough accuracy for calculating the stress in the new I-girder, and thus they can be used reliably in the design stage.

Determining Shear Modulus of 3-ply Laminated Veneer Lumber by Uniaxial Tension Test

  • Oh, Sei-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • 제41권5호
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    • pp.425-431
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    • 2013
  • Estimation equations of shear modulus in the plane of laminated veneer lumber (LVL) were compared each other through uniaxial tension test results. The equations - basic elastic equation in the dimensional orthotropic case, Hankinson's formula and empirical equation proposed by Salikis and Falk, were applied to determine the elastic constants at various angles to the grain, which were needed for determination of shear modulus. Tensile elastic modulus of LVL predicted from these equations were compared with test data to evaluate the accuracy of the equation. Tensile elastic modulus rapidly decreased at orientations between 0 and 15 degrees and elastic modulus at grain angles of 15, 30, and 45 degrees overestimated in the presented equations. But the proposed equation by Salikis and Falk showed better prediction, especially at 30, and 45 degrees. This proposed formula would be more useful and practical for estimating of shear modulus of wood composites like LVL to minimize the effect of Poisson's ratio term.

테다소나무 조림지(造林地)에 대한 Weibull 직경분포(直經分布) 수확예측(收穫豫測) 시스템에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) (Weibull Diameter Distribution Yield Prediction System for Loblolly Pine Plantations)

  • 이영진;홍성천
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제90권2호
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    • pp.176-183
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    • 2001
  • 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서는 목재(木材)의 다목적(多目的) 생산량(生産量)(multiple-product yield) 예측(豫測)에 대한 해결책(解決策)으로서 테다소나무(Pinus taeda L.) 조림지(造林地)를 대상으로 하여 Weibull 직경분포(直徑分布) 수확예측(收穫豫測) 시스템을 개발(開發)하였다. 직경분포(直徑分布) 수확예측(收穫豫測) 모형(模型)을 개발(開發)하기 위하여, 4개의 백분위수(百分位數) 식(式)들을 근거(根據)로 한 모수(母數) 회복(回復)(parameter recovery) 절차법(節次法)을 적용(適用)하였다. 또한 직경급(直徑級)에 대한 수확량(收穫量) 계산(計算)을 위하여 단목(單木) 수고(樹高) 예측식(豫測式)을 개발(開發)하였으며, 그리고 단목(單木) 재적(材積) 예측식(豫測式)을 이용(利用)함으로써 직경급(直徑級)에 대해 기대되는 재적량(材積量)을 계산(計算)할 수가 있다. 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서 사용(使用)된 직경급(直徑級)에 대한 Weibull 누적함수(累積函數)의 상한선(上限線) 차이(差異) 방법(方法)이 기존(旣存)의 상한선(上限線)과 하한선(下限線)의 절차법(節次法)보다도 괄약오차(括約誤差)를 줄 일수 있는 보다 나은 절차법(節次法)이였다. 본(本) 연구(硏究)에서 제시(提示)된 Weibull 직경분포(直徑分布) 수적예측(收積豫測) 시스템에 대한 타당성(妥當性) 검정(檢定)의 한 방법(方法)으로서 Kolmogorov-Smirnov test 결과(結果), 각(各) plot당 예측(豫測)된 직경분포(直徑分布)와 관측(觀測)된 직경(直徑) 분포급(分布級) 사이에서 통계적(統計的) 유의성(有意性)이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 직경분포(直徑分布) 수확예측(收穫豫測) 시스템은 다목적(多目的) 목재(木材) 생산량(生産量) 예측(豫測)과 임분(林分) 구조(構造) 모형(模型) 및 임분(林分)의 경영(經營)에 유용(有用)한 정보(情報)를 제공(提供)할 것이다.

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Prediction of Crude Protein, Extractable Fat, Calcium and Phosphorus Contents of Broiler Chicken Carcasses Using Near-infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy

  • Kadim, I.T.;Mahgoub, O.;Al-Marzooqi, W.;Annamalai, K.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제18권7호
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    • pp.1036-1040
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    • 2005
  • Near-infrared reflectance spectroscopic (NIRS) calibrations were developed for accurate and fast prediction of whole broiler chicken carcass composition. The Feed and Forage Foss systems Model 5000 Reflectance Transport Model 5000 with near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS)-WinISI II windows software was used for this purpose. One equation was developed for the prediction of each carcass component. One hundred and fifty freeze dried broiler whole carcass samples were ground in a Cyclotech 1,093 sample mill and analyzed for dry matter, protein, fat, calcium and phosphate. Samples were divided into two sets: a calibration set from which equations were derived and a prediction set used to validate these equations. The chemical analysis values (mean${\pm}$SD) were calculated based on dry matter basis as follows: dry matter: 33.41${\pm}$2.78 (range: 26.41-43.47), protein: 54.04${\pm}$6.63 (range: 36.20-76.09), fat 35.44${\pm}$8.34 (range: 7.50-55.03), calcium 2.55${\pm}$0.65 (range: 0.99-4.41), phosphorus 1.38${\pm}$0.26 (range: 0.60-2.28). One hundred and three samples were used to calibrate the equations and prediction values. The software used was modified to obtain partial least square regression statistics, as it is the most suitable for natural products analysis. The coefficients of determination ($R^2$) and the standard errors of prediction were 0.82 and 1.83 for the dry matter, 0.96 and 1.98 for protein, 0.99 and 1.07 for fat, 0.90 and 0.30 for calcium and 0.91 and 0.11 for phosphorus, respectively. The present study indicated that NIRS can be calibrated to predict the whole broiler carcass chemical composition, including minerals in a rapid, accurate, and cost effective manner. It neither requires skilled operators nor generates hazardous waste. These findings may have practical importance to improve instrumental procedures for quick evaluation of broiler carcass composition.

중회귀 모형을 이용한 울산지역 오존 포텐셜 모형의 설계 및 평가 (Design and Assessment of an Ozone Potential Forecasting Model using Multi-regression Equations in Ulsan Metropolitan Area)

  • 김유근;이소영;임윤규;송상근
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.14-28
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    • 2007
  • This study presented the selection of ozone ($O_3$) potential factors and designed and assessed its potential prediction model using multiple-linear regression equations in Ulsan area during the springtime from April to June, $2000{\sim}2004$. $O_3$ potential factors were selected by analyzing the relationship between meterological parameters and surface $O_3$ concentrations. In addition, cluster analysis (e.g., average linkage and K-means clustering techniques) was performed to identify three major synoptic patterns (e.g., $P1{\sim}P3$) for an $O_3$ potential prediction model. P1 is characterized by a presence of a low-pressure system over northeastern Korea, the Ulsan was influenced by the northwesterly synoptic flow leading to a retarded sea breeze development. P2 is characterized by a weakening high-pressure system over Korea, and P3 is clearly associated with a migratory anticyclone. The stepwise linear regression was performed to develop models for prediction of the highest 1-h $O_3$ occurring in the Ulsan. The results of the models were rather satisfactory, and the high $O_3$ simulation accuracy for $P1{\sim}P3$ synoptic patterns was found to be 79, 85, and 95%, respectively ($2000{\sim}2004$). The $O_3$ potential prediction model for $P1{\sim}P3$ using the predicted meteorological data in 2005 showed good high $O_3$ prediction performance with 78, 75, and 70%, respectively. Therefore the regression models can be a useful tool for forecasting of local $O_3$ concentration.

시계열 데이터의 성격과 예측 모델의 예측력에 관한 연구 (Relationships Between the Characteristics of the Business Data Set and Forecasting Accuracy of Prediction models)

  • 이원하;최종욱
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.133-147
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    • 1998
  • Recently, many researchers have been involved in finding deterministic equations which can accurately predict future event, based on chaotic theory, or fractal theory. The theory says that some events which seem very random but internally deterministic can be accurately predicted by fractal equations. In contrast to the conventional methods, such as AR model, MA, model, or ARIMA model, the fractal equation attempts to discover a deterministic order inherent in time series data set. In discovering deterministic order, researchers have found that neural networks are much more effective than the conventional statistical models. Even though prediction accuracy of the network can be different depending on the topological structure and modification of the algorithms, many researchers asserted that the neural network systems outperforms other systems, because of non-linear behaviour of the network models, mechanisms of massive parallel processing, generalization capability based on adaptive learning. However, recent survey shows that prediction accuracy of the forecasting models can be determined by the model structure and data structures. In the experiments based on actual economic data sets, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the neural network model is similar to the performance level of the conventional forecasting model. Especially, for the data set which is deterministically chaotic, the AR model, a conventional statistical model, was not significantly different from the MLP model, a neural network model. This result shows that the forecasting model. This result shows that the forecasting model a, pp.opriate to a prediction task should be selected based on characteristics of the time series data set. Analysis of the characteristics of the data set was performed by fractal analysis, measurement of Hurst index, and measurement of Lyapunov exponents. As a conclusion, a significant difference was not found in forecasting future events for the time series data which is deterministically chaotic, between a conventional forecasting model and a typical neural network model.

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Use of Near-Infrared Spectroscopy for Estimating Lignan Glucosides Contents in Intact Sesame Seeds

  • Kim, Kwan-Su;Park, Si-Hyung;Shim, Kang-Bo;Ryu, Su-Noh
    • Journal of Crop Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 2007
  • Near-infrared spectroscopy(NIRS) was used to develop a rapid and efficient method to determine lignan glucosides in intact seeds of sesame(Sesamum indicum L.) germplasm accessions in Korea. A total of 93 samples(about 2 g of intact seeds) were scanned in the reflectance mode of a scanning monochromator, and the reference values for lignan glucosides contents were measured by high performance liquid chromatography. Calibration equations for sesaminol triglucoside, sesaminol($1{\rightarrow}2$) diglucoside, sesamolinol diglucoside, sesaminol($1{\rightarrow}6$) diglucoside, and total amount of lignan glucosides were developed using modified partial least square regression with internal cross validation(n=63), which exhibited lower SECV(standard errors of cross-validation), higher $R^2$(coefficient of determination in calibration), and higher 1-VR(ratio of unexplained variance divided by variance) values. Prediction of an external validation set(n=30) showed a significant correlation between reference values and NIRS estimated values based on the SEP(standard error of prediction), $r^2$(coefficient of determination in prediction), and the ratio of standard deviation(SD) of reference data to SEP, as factors used to evaluate the accuracy of equations. The models for each glucoside content had relatively higher values of SD/SEP(C) and $r^2$(more than 2.0 and 0.80, respectively), thereby characterizing those equations as having good quantitative information, while those of sesaminol($1{\rightarrow}2$) diglucoside showing a minor quantity had the lowest SD/SEP(C) and $r^2$ values(1.7 and 0.74, respectively), indicating a poor correlation between reference values and NIRS estimated values. The results indicated that NIRS could be used to rapidly determine lignan glucosides content in sesame seeds in the breeding programs for high quality sesame varieties.

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Use of Near-Infrared Spectroscopy for Estimating Fatty Acid Composition in Intact Seeds of Rapeseed

  • Kim, Kwan-Su;Park, Si-Hyung;Choung, Myoung-Gun;Jang, Young-Seok
    • Journal of Crop Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2007
  • Near-infrared spectroscopy(NIRS) was used as a rapid and nondestructive method to determine the fatty acid composition in intact seed samples of rapeseed(Brassica napus L.). A total of 349 samples(about 2 g of intact seeds) were scanned in the reflectance mode of a scanning monochromator, and the reference values for fatty acid composition were measured by gas-liquid chromatography. Calibration equations for individual fatty acids were developed using the regression method of modified partial least-squares with internal cross validation(n=249). The equations had low SECV(standard errors of cross-validation), and high $R^2$(coefficient of determination in calibration) values(>0.8) except for palmitic and eicosenoic acid. Prediction of an external validation set(n=100) showed significant correlation between reference values and NIRS estimated values based on the SEP(standard error of prediction), $r^2$(coefficient of determination in prediction), and the ratio of standard deviation(SD) of reference data to SEP. The models developed in this study had relatively higher values(> 3.0 and 0.9, respectively) of SD/SEP(C) and $r^2$ for oleic, linoleic, and erucic acid, characterizing those equations as having good quantitative information. The results indicated that NIRS could be used to rapidly determine the fatty acid composition in rapeseed seeds in the breeding programs for high quality rapeseed oil.

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FFT-FEM을 이용한 윤활 기구에서 표면온도에 관한 연구 (Surface Temperature in Sliding Systems Using the FFT Finite Element Analysis)

  • 조종두;안수익
    • 한국윤활학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국윤활학회 1999년도 제29회 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 1999
  • Finite element equations by using fast Fourier transformation were formulated for studying temperatures resulting from frictional heating in sliding systems. The equations include the effect of velocity of moving components. The program developed by using FFT-FEM that combines Fourier transform techniques and the finite element method, was applied to the sliding bearing system. Numerical prediction obtained by FFT-FEM was in an excellent agreement of experimental temperature measurements.

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