• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction equation.

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비선형, 비정상 시계열 예측을 위한RBF(Radial Basis Function) 신경회로망 구조 (RBF Neural Network Sturcture for Prediction of Non-linear, Non-stationary Time Series)

  • 김상환;이종호
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 1998년도 하계학술대회 논문집 G
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    • pp.2299-2301
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, a modified RBF (Radial Basis Function) neural network structure is suggested for the prediction of time series with non-linear, non-stationary characteristics. Conventional RBF neural network predicting time series by using past outputs is for sensing the trajectory of the time series and for reacting when there exists strong relation between input and hidden neuron's RBF center. But this response is highly sensitive to level and trend of time serieses. In order to overcome such dependencies, hidden neurons are modified to react to the increments of input variable and multiplied by increments(or decrements) of out puts for prediction. When the suggested structure is applied to prediction of Lorenz equation, and Rossler equation, improved performances are obtainable.

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용접구조물의 피로수명예측을 위한 수치해석모델 (Numerical Analysis Model for Fatigue Life Prediction of Welded Structures)

  • 이치승;이제명
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.49-54
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    • 2009
  • In this study, the numerical analysis model for fatigue life prediction of welded structures are presented. In order to evaluate the structural degradation of welded structures due to fatigue loading, continuum damage mechanics approach is applied. Damage evolution equation of welded structures under arbitrary fatigue loading is constructed as a unified plasticity-damage theory. Moreover, by integration of damage evolution equation regarding to stress amplitude and number of cycles, the simplified fatigue life prediction model is derived. The proposed model is compared with fatigue test results of T-joint welded structures to obtain its validation and usefulness. It is confirmed that the predicted fatigue life of T-joint welded structures are coincided well with the fatigue test results.

Prediction of the dynamic flow stress

  • Alves, Marcilio
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2005
  • This article explores a constitutive equation that is able to correlate stress, strain and strain rate. In order to show the advantages of the constitutive equation here proposed and how its material parameters are obtained, data extracted from the literature, for materials as different as polymers and metallic alloys, are used. Finite element simulation of the impact behaviour of a beam is presented to highlight the care one needs to exercise when using the more traditional Cowper-Symonds equation. The present constitutive equation has shown to be accurate for a wide range of strains, stresses and strain rates.

근적외 분광분석법을 이용한 황색종 잎담배의 화학성분 분석

  • 김용옥;이경구;장기철;김기환
    • 한국연초학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to analyze chemical components in flue-cured tobacco using near infrared spectroscopy(NIRS). Samples were collected in '96 and '97 crop year and were scanned in the wavelengths of 400 ~ 2500 nm by near infrared analyzer(NIRSystem Co., Model 6500). Calibration equations were developed and then analyzed flue-cured samples by NIRS. The standard error of calibration(SEC) and performance (SEP) of '96 crop year samples between NIRS and standard laboratory analysis(SLA) were 0.18% and 0.24% for nicotine, 1.60% and 1.77% for total sugar, 0.13% and 0.15% for total nitrogen, 0.58% and 0.68% for crude ash, 0.23% and 0.28% for ether extracts, and 0.09% and 0.08% for chlorine, respectively. The coefficient of determination($R^2$) of calibration and prediction samples between NIRS and SLA of '96 crop year samples was 0.94~0.99 and 0.83~0.97 depending on chemical components, respectively. The SEC and SEP of '97 crop year samples were similar to those of '96 crop year samples. The SEP of '97 crop year samples which were analyzed using '96 calibration equation was 0.32 % for nicotine, 2.72% for total sugar, 0.14 % for total nitrogen, 1.00 % for crude ash, 0.48 for ether extracts and 0.17% for chlorine, respectively. The prediction result was more accurate when calibration and prediction samples were produced in the same crop year than those of the different crop year. The SEP of '96 and '97 crop year samples using calibration equation which was developed '96 plus '97 crop year samples was similar to that of '96 crop year samples using 96 calibration equation and that of '97 crop year samples using '97 calibration equation, respectively. The SEP of '97 crop year samples using calibration equation which was developed '96 plus '97 crop year samples was lower than that of '97 crop year samples analyzed by '96 calibration equation. To improve the analytical inaccuracy caused by the difference of crop year between calibration and prediction samples, we need to include the prediction sample spectra which are different from calibration sample spectra in recalibration sample spectra, and then develop recalibration equation. Although the analytical result using NIR is not as good as SLA, the chemical component analysis using NIR can apply to tobacco leaves, leaf process or tobacco manufacturing process which demand the rapid analytical result.

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알루미나 세라믹스의 열피로 수명 예측 (Prediction of Thermal Fatigue Life of Alumina ceramics)

  • 정우찬;한봉석;이홍림
    • 한국세라믹학회지
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    • 제36권8호
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    • pp.871-875
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    • 1999
  • Theoretical equation to calculate thermal fatigue life was derived in which slow crack growth theory was adopted. The equation is function of crack growth exponent n. Cyclic thermal fatigue tests were performed at temperature difference of 175, 187 and 200$^{\circ}C$ respectively. At each temperature difference critical thermal fatigue life cycles of the alumina ceramics were 180,37 and 7 cycles. And theoretical thermal fatigue life cycles were calculated as 172, 35 and 7 cycles at the same temperature difference conditions. Therefore thermal fatigue behavior of alumina ceramics can be represented by derived equation. Also theoretical single cycle critical thermal shock temperature difference can be calculated by this equation and the result was consistent with the experimental result well.

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COST PERFORMANCE PREDICTION FOR INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL: A COMPARATIVE STUDY

  • D.Y. Kim;S.H. Han;H. Kim;H. Park
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.653-661
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    • 2007
  • Overseas construction projects tend to be more complex than domestic projects, being exposed to more external risks, such as politics, economy, society, and culture, as well as more internal risks from the project itself. It is crucial to have an early understanding of the project condition, in order to be well prepared in various phases of the project. This study compares a structural equation model and multiple regression analysis, in their capacity to predict cost performance of international construction projects. The structural equation model shows a more accurate prediction of cost performance than does regression analysis, due to its intrinsic capability of considering various cost factors in a systematic way.

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A study on the prediction of tunnel crown and surface settlement in tunneling as a function of deformation modulus and overburden

  • Kim Seon-Hong;Moon Hyun-Koo
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지구물리탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of the international symposium on the fusion technology
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2003
  • The precise prediction of ground displacement plays an important role in planning and constructing tunnels. In this study, an equation for predicting the surface and crown settlement is suggested by examining the theories of ground movement caused by tunnel excavation. From the 3D numerical modeling, the reinforcement effect of UAM (Umbrella Arch Method) is quantitatively analyzed with respect to deformation modulus and overburden. By using a regression technique for the numerical results, an equation for predicting the settlement is suggested.

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부정정 베어링-축계의 해석 및 볼베어링의 거동예측 (Analysis of Statically Indeterminate Bearing-Shaft System Prediction of the Behavior of Ball Bearing)

  • 김완두;한동철
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 1994
  • The analysis of statically indeterminate bearing-shaft system was investigated. The moment loads and misalignment angles which were induced in the ball bearings were determined, and the influence of span length of this system on the moment loads and fatigue lives was identified. The sliding and spinning speeds between balls and raceways which affected the performance of ball bearing evaluated. The equation to estimate the cage speed of ball bearing under moment loads was proposed. This equation had been verified by the test results of measuring of cage speed, which was useful to the prediction of ball bearing under moment loads.

경암층 발파현장에서 진동예측 및 장약량산정 (Vibration Prediction and Charge Estimation in Hard Rock Blasting Site)

  • 박연수;박선준;최선민;문수봉;문병옥;정경열;정태형;황승일;김민중;박상철;김정주;이병근
    • 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.313-319
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    • 2009
  • The blasting has a lot of economic efficiency and speediness but it can damage to a neighbor structure, a domestic animal and a cultured fish due to the blasting vibration, then the public grievance is increased. Therefore, we need to manage the blasting vibration efficiently. The prediction of the correct vibration velocity is not easy because there are lots of different kinds of the scale of blasting vibration and it has a number of a variable effect. So we figure the optimum line through the least-squares regression by using the vibration data measured in hard rock blasting and compared with the design vibration prediction equation. As a result, we confirm that the vibration estimated in this paper is bigger than the design vibration prediction equation in the same charge and distance. If there is a Gaussian normal distribution data on the left-right side of the least squares regression, then we can estimate the vibration prediction equation on reliability 50%(${\beta}=0$), 90%(${\beta}=1.28$), 95%(${\beta}=1.64$). 99.9%(${\beta}=3.09$). As a result, it appears to be suitable that the reliability is 99% at the transverse component, the reliability 95% is at the vertical component, the reliability 90% is at the longitudinal component and the reliability is 95% at the peak vector sum component.