• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction equation.

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Prediction of Rice Yield Loss and Economic Threshold Level by Densities of Sagittaria trifolia and Bidens frondosa in Direct-seeding Flooded Rice (벼 담수직파에서 벗풀과 미국가막사리의 발생밀도에 따른 쌀 수량예측 및 경제적 방제밀도 수준 설정)

  • Kim, Sang-Kuk;Kim, Su-Yong;Won, Jong-Gun;Shin, Jong-Hee;Kwon, Oh-Do
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.340-347
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to predict the rice yield loss and to determine the economic threshold levels for direct-seeding flooded rice cultivation from competition to the most serious weeds, Sagittaria trifolia L. and Bidens frondosa L. The rice yield loss models of S. trifolia and B. frondosa were predicted as Y = 497.0/(1+0.003760x), $R^2$=0.869 and Y = 486.0/(1+0.007612x), $R^2$ = 0.887, respectively. In comparison of the competitiveness represented by parameter ${\beta}$, it was 0.003760 in S. trifolia and 0.007612 in B. frondosa, respectively. Economic thresholds calculated using Cousens' equation was negatively related with the competitiveness of weed. The economic thresholds of S. trifolia and B. frondosa were 7.6 and 3.9 plants per $m^2$, respectively.

Life Prediction of Low Cycle Fatigue for Ni-base Superalloy GTD111 DS at Elevated Temperature (Ni기 초내열합금 GTD111 DS의 고온 저주기 피로수명 예측)

  • Kim, Jin Yeol;Yoon, Dong Hyun;Kim, Jae Hoon;Bae, Si Yeon;Chang, Sung Yong;Chang, Sung Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.41 no.8
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    • pp.765-770
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    • 2017
  • GTD111 DS of nickel base superalloy has been used for gas turbine blades. In this study, low cycle fatigue test was conducted on the GTD111 DS alloy by setting conditions similar to the real operating environment. The low cycle fatigue tests were conducted at room temperature, $760^{\circ}C$, $870^{\circ}C$, and various strain amplitudes. Test results showed that fatigue life decreased with increasing total strain amplitude. Cyclic hardening response was observed at room temperature and $760^{\circ}C$; however, tests conducted at $870^{\circ}C$ showed cyclic softening response. Stress relaxation was observed at $870^{\circ}C$ because creep effects occurred from holding time. A relationship between fatigue life and total strain range was obtained from the Coffin-Manson method. The fratography using a SEM was carried out at the crack initiation and propagation regions.

The Study on Empirical Propagation Path Loss Model in the Antler Terminal Environment (엔틀러 터미널 환경에서 실험적인 패스 로스 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Tae;Kim, Jin-Wook;Jo, Yun-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Uk;Yoon, In-Seop;Park, Hyo-Dal
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.516-523
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, The path loss model of Air Traffic Control(ATC) telecommunication radio channel has been studied at the Incheon International Airport(IIA) with the terminal with two antlers. We measured two frequencies among VHF/UHF channel bands. The transmitting site radiated the Continuous Wave(CW). The propagation measurement was taken using the moving vehicle equipped with receiver and antenna. The transmitting power, frequency and antenna height are the same as the current operating condition. The path loss exponent and intercept parameters were extracted by the basic path loss model and hata model. The path loss exponents at passager terminal areas were 3.32 and 3.10 respectively in 128.2 MHz and 269.1 MHz. The deviation of prediction error is 9.69 and 9.65. The new path loss equation at the terminal area was also developed using the derived path loss parameters. The new path loss was compared with other models. This result will be helpful for the ATC site selection and service quality evaluation.

Generalized Sigmidal Basis Function for Improving the Learning Performance fo Multilayer Perceptrons (다층 퍼셉트론의 학습 성능 개선을 위한 일반화된 시그모이드 베이시스 함수)

  • Park, Hye-Yeong;Lee, Gwan-Yong;Lee, Il-Byeong;Byeon, Hye-Ran
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.1261-1269
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    • 1999
  • 다층 퍼셉트론은 다양한 응용 분야에 성공적으로 적용되고 있는 대표적인 신경회로망 모델이다. 그러나 다층 퍼셉트론의 학습에서 나타나는 플라토에 기인한 느린 학습 속도와 지역 극소는 실제 응용문제에 적용함에 있어서 가장 큰 문제로 지적되어왔다. 이 문제를 해결하기 위해 여러 가지 다양한 학습알고리즘들이 개발되어 왔으나, 계산의 비효율성으로 인해 실제 문제에는 적용하기 힘든 예가 많은 등, 현재까지 만족할 만한 해결책은 제시되지 못하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 다층퍼셉트론의 베이시스 함수로 사용되는 시그모이드 함수를 보다 일반화된 형태로 정의하여 사용함으로써 학습에 있어서의 플라토를 완화하고, 지역극소에 빠지는 것을 줄이는 접근방법을 소개한다. 본 방법은 기존의 변형된 가중치 수정식을 사용한 학습 속도 향상의 방법들과는 다른 접근 방법을 택함으로써 기존의 방법들과 함께 사용하는 것이 가능하다는 특징을 갖고 있다. 제안하는 방법의 성능을 확인하기 위하여 간단한 패턴 인식 문제들에의 적용 실험 및 기존의 학습 속도 향상 방법을 함께 사용하여 시계열 예측 문제에 적용한 실험을 수행하였고, 그 결과로부터 제안안 방법의 효율성을 확인할 수 있었다. Abstract A multilayer perceptron is the most well-known neural network model which has been successfully applied to various fields of application. Its slow learning caused by plateau and local minima of gradient descent learning, however, have been pointed as the biggest problems in its practical use. To solve such a problem, a number of researches on learning algorithms have been conducted, but it can be said that none of satisfying solutions have been presented so far because the problems such as computational inefficiency have still been existed in these algorithms. In this paper, we propose a new learning approach to minimize the effect of plateau and reduce the possibility of getting trapped in local minima by generalizing the sigmoidal function which is used as the basis function of a multilayer perceptron. Adapting a new approach that differs from the conventional methods with revised updating equation, the proposed method can be used together with the existing methods to improve the learning performance. We conducted some experiments to test the proposed method on simple problems of pattern recognition and a problem of time series prediction, compared our results with the results of the existing methods, and confirmed that the proposed method is efficient enough to apply to the real problems.

Analysis of Cooling Air Current and Efficiency of Air Conditioning in the Underground Subway Station with Screen-Door Opening and Closing (도시철도 역사 스크린 도어 개폐에 따른 냉방 기류 해석 및 효율 비교 분석)

  • Jang, Yong-Jun;Ryu, Ji-Min;Jung, Ho-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.328-335
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    • 2014
  • Numerical prediction methods were applied to investigate the turbulent air currents and air-conditioning efficiency in an underground subway station, and the results compared to experimental data. The Shin-gumho Station($8^{th}$ floor underground and 43.6m in depth) in Seoul was selected for the analysis. The entire station was covered for simulation and the ventilation mode was ordinary. The ventilation diffusers were modeled as 95 square shapes of $0.6m{\times}0.6m$ in the lobby and as 222 square shapes in the platform. Cooling air of $47,316m^3/h$ was supplied and the returned air of $33,980m^3/h$ is exhausted in the lobby and the cooling air of $33,968m^3/h$ is supplied and the returned air of $76,190m^3/h$ was exhausted in the platform which is the same as the experimental data. The cases of the screen-door-closed and open were respectively investigated. A total of 7.5million grids were generated and the whole domain divided into 22 blocks for MPI efficiency of calculation. Large eddy simulation (LES) was applied to solve the momentum and energy equation.

Quantification of Chloride Diffusivity in Steady State Condition in Concrete with Fly Ash Considering Curing and Crack Effect (재령 및 균열효과를 고려한 플라이애시 콘크리트의 정상상태 염화물 확산 특성의 정량화)

  • Yoon, Yong-Sik;Cheon, Ju-Hyun;Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2019
  • In case of the cracks in concrete, the penetration of deterioration ions such as chloride ions in to cracks is accelerated. According to the penetration of chloride ions, structural and durability problems to RC(Reinforced Concrete) structures are caused. In this study, the accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient which is in steady state is evaluated for 2 year aged normal and high strength FA(Fly Ash) concrete, after a range of crack depths are induced up to 1.0 mm in 56 aged day. Considering crack effect by linear regression analysis, high strength concrete has slightly less increasing ratio of diffusion coefficient by crack than normal strength concrete, and diffusion coefficient increases non-linearly as crack width is increased. Also, In two types of concrete, crack effect decrease as the curing period increase. In the case of quantifying crack and curing effect by using exponential function form, the coefficients of determination are higher than those of linear regression analysis. Under steady state, it is thought that there is not a high correlation between the crack effect and the curing effect, and considering the two independent effects, it is believed that reasonable prediction equation for diffusion of concrete with crack can be proposed.

A Study on Technological Forecasting for Promising Alternative Technologies Using Fisher-Pry Modification Model (Fisher-Pry 수정모형을 활용한 유망대체기술 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sung-Il;Kim, Byung-Nam
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.104-114
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    • 2019
  • In the global market competition, countries and businesses are actively engaged in technology prediction activities to maximize their profits by attempting to enter and preempting the core technology of the future. In this paper, we propose a growth model based on patent application trends to predict the time to replace a product with a promising new technology to dominate the market. Although the Fisher-Pry model that Bhargava generalized to predict the emergence of promising alternative technologies was relatively satisfactory compared to the original Fisher-Pry model, it was difficult to predict the replacement rate behavior properly due to a parameter problem. The application of the Fisher-Pry Modification Model in the form of a quadratic equation through the patent trend analysis of the optical storage system for the purpose of verifying the time alternative to the light storage technology has resulted in satisfactory verification results. It is expected that small and medium-sized companies and individual researchers will apply this model and use it more easily to predict the time to replace the market for promising replacement technologies.

A Propose on Seismic Performance Evaluation Model of Slope using Artificial Neural Network Technique (인공신경망 기법을 이용한 사면의 내진성능평가 모델 제안)

  • Kwag, Shinyoung;Hahm, Daegi
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study is to develop a model which can predict the seismic performance of the slope relatively accurately and efficiently by using artificial neural network(ANN) technique. The quantification of such the seismic performance of the slope is not easy task due to the randomness and the uncertainty of the earthquake input and slope model. Under these circumstances, probabilistic seismic fragility analyses of slope have been carried out by several researchers, and a closed-form equation for slope seismic performance was proposed through a multiple linear regression analysis. However, a traditional statistical linear regression analysis has shown a limit that cannot accurately represent the nonlinearistic relationship between the slope of various conditions and seismic performance. In order to overcome these problems, in this study, we attempted to apply the ANN to generate prediction models of the seismic performance of the slope. The validity of the derived model was verified by comparing this with the conventional multi-linear and multi-nonlinear regression models. As a result, the models obtained through the ANN basically showed excellent performance in predicting the seismic performance of the slope, compared to the models obtained by the statistical regression analyses of the previous study.

Molecular Dynamics Simulation on the Thermal Boundary Resistance of a Thin-film and Experimental Validation (분자동역학을 이용한 박막의 열경계저항 예측 및 실험적 검증)

  • Suk, Myung Eun;Kim, Yun Young
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.103-108
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    • 2019
  • Non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulation on the thermal boundary resistance(TBR) of an aluminum(Al)/silicon(Si) interface was performed in the present study. The constant heat flux across the Si/Al interface was simulated by adding the kinetic energy in hot Si region and removing the same amount of the energy from the cold Al region. The TBR estimated from the sharp temperature drop at the interface was independent of heat flux and equal to $5.13{\pm}0.17K{\cdot}m^2/GW$ at 300K. The simulation result was experimentally confirmed by the time-domain thermoreflectance technique. A 90nm thick Al film was deposited on a Si(100) wafer using an e-beam evaporator and the TBR on the film/substrate interface was measured using the time-domain thermoreflectance technique based on a femtosecond laser system. A numerical solution of the transient heat conduction equation was obtained using the finite difference method to estimate the TBR value. Experimental results were compared to the prediction and discussions on the nanoscale thermal transport phenomena were made.

Estimation of Onion Leaf Appearance by Beta Distribution (Beta 함수 기반 기온에 따른 양파의 잎 수 증가 예측)

  • Lee, Seong Eun;Moon, Kyung Hwan;Shin, Min Ji;Kim, Byeong Hyeok
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.78-82
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    • 2022
  • Phenology determines the timing of crop development, and the timing of phenological events is strongly influenced by the temperature during the growing season. In process-based model, leaf area is simulated dynamically by coupling of morphology and phenology module. Therefore, the prediction of leaf appearance rate and final leaf number affects the performance of whole crop model. The dataset for the model equation was collected from SPA R chambers with five different temperature treatments. Beta distribution function (proposed by Yan and Hunt (1999)) was used for describing the leaf appearance rate as a function of temperature. The optimum temperature and the critical value were estimated to be 26.0℃ and 35.3℃, respectively. For evaluation of the model, the accumulated number of onion leaves observed in a temperature gradient chamber was compared with model estimates. The model estimate is the result of accumulating the daily increase in the number of onion leaves obtained by inputting the daily mean temperature during the growing season into the temperature model. In this study, the coefficient of determination (R2) and RMSE value of the model were 0.95 and 0.89, respectively.