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http://dx.doi.org/10.5392/JKCA.2019.19.05.104

A Study on Technological Forecasting for Promising Alternative Technologies Using Fisher-Pry Modification Model  

Hong, Sung-Il (단국대학교 글로벌지식재산학과)
Kim, Byung-Nam (단국대학교 글로벌지식재산학과)
Publication Information
The Journal of the Korea Contents Association / v.19, no.5, 2019 , pp. 104-114 More about this Journal
Abstract
In the global market competition, countries and businesses are actively engaged in technology prediction activities to maximize their profits by attempting to enter and preempting the core technology of the future. In this paper, we propose a growth model based on patent application trends to predict the time to replace a product with a promising new technology to dominate the market. Although the Fisher-Pry model that Bhargava generalized to predict the emergence of promising alternative technologies was relatively satisfactory compared to the original Fisher-Pry model, it was difficult to predict the replacement rate behavior properly due to a parameter problem. The application of the Fisher-Pry Modification Model in the form of a quadratic equation through the patent trend analysis of the optical storage system for the purpose of verifying the time alternative to the light storage technology has resulted in satisfactory verification results. It is expected that small and medium-sized companies and individual researchers will apply this model and use it more easily to predict the time to replace the market for promising replacement technologies.
Keywords
Promising Alternative Technology; Fisher-Pry Model; Growth S Curve; Takeover Time; Patent Application Trends;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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