• Title/Summary/Keyword: predicted deviation

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Environmental Prediction in Greenhouse According to Modified Greenhouse Structure and Heat Exchanger Location for Efficient Thermal Energy Management (효율적인 열에너지 관리를 위한 온실 형상 및 열 교환 장치 위치 개선에 따른 온실 내부 환경 예측)

  • Jeong, In Seon;Lee, Chung Geon;Cho, La Hoon;Park, Sun Yong;Kim, Seok Jun;Kim, Dae Hyun;Oh, Jae-Heun
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.278-286
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    • 2021
  • In this study, based on the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation model developed through previous study, inner environmenct of the modified glass greenhouse was predicted. Also, suggested the optimal shape of the greenhouse and location of the heat exchangers for heat energy management of the greenhouse using the developed model. For efficient heating energy management, the glass greenhouse was modified by changing the cross-section design and the location of the heat exchanger. The optimal cross-section design was selected based on the cross-section design standard of Republic of Korea's glass greenhouse, and the Fan Coil Unit(FCU) and the radiating pipe were re-positioned based on "Standard of greenhouse environment design" to enhance energy saving efficiency. The simulation analysis was performed to predict the inner temperature distribution and heat transfer with the modified greenhouse structure using the developed inner environment prediction model. As a result of simulation, the mean temperature and uniformity of the modified greenhouse were 0.65℃, 0.75%p higher than those of the control greenhouse, respectively. Also, the maximum deviation decreased by an average of 0.25℃. And the mean age of air was 18 sec. lower than that of the control greenhouse. It was confirmed that efficient heating energy management was possible in the modified greenhouse, when considered the temperature uniformity and the ventilation performance.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A basic study on explosion pressure of hydrogen tank for hydrogen fueled vehicles in road tunnels (도로터널에서 수소 연료차 수소탱크 폭발시 폭발압력에 대한 기초적 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Ahn, Sang-Ho;Lee, Hu-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.517-534
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    • 2021
  • Hydrogen fuel is emerging as an new energy source to replace fossil fuels in that it can solve environmental pollution problems and reduce energy imbalance and cost. Since hydrogen is eco-friendly but highly explosive, there is a high concern about fire and explosion accidents of hydrogen fueled vehicles. In particular, in semi-enclosed spaces such as tunnels, the risk is predicted to increase. Therefore, this study was conducted on the applicability of the equivalent TNT model and the numerical analysis method to evaluate the hydrogen explosion pressure in the tunnel. In comparison and review of the explosion pressure of 6 equivalent TNT models and Weyandt's experimental results, the Henrych equation was found to be the closest with a deviation of 13.6%. As a result of examining the effect of hydrogen tank capacity (52, 72, 156 L) and tunnel cross-section (40.5, 54, 72, 95 m2) on the explosion pressure using numerical analysis, the explosion pressure wave in the tunnel initially it propagates in a hemispherical shape as in open space. Furthermore, when it passes the certain distance it is transformed a plane wave and propagates at a very gradual decay rate. The Henrych equation agrees well with the numerical analysis results in the section where the explosion pressure is rapidly decreasing, but it is significantly underestimated after the explosion pressure wave is transformed into a plane wave. In case of same hydrogen tank capacity, an explosion pressure decreases as the tunnel cross-sectional area increases, and in case of the same cross-sectional area, the explosion pressure increases by about 2.5 times if the hydrogen tank capacity increases from 52 L to 156 L. As a result of the evaluation of the limiting distance affecting the human body, when a 52 L hydrogen tank explodes, the limiting distance to death was estimated to be about 3 m, and the limiting distance to serious injury was estimated to be 28.5~35.8 m.

Application of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models to forecast long-term precipitation in the Geum River basin (다중회귀모형과 인공신경망모형을 이용한 금강권역 강수량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.723-736
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    • 2022
  • In this study, monthly precipitation forecasting models that can predict up to 12 months in advance were constructed for the Geum River basin, and two statistical techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were applied to the model construction. As predictor candidates, a total of 47 climate indices were used, including 39 global climate patterns provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 8 meteorological factors for the basin. Forecast models were constructed by using climate indices with high correlation by analyzing the teleconnection between the monthly precipitation and each climate index for the past 40 years based on the forecast month. In the goodness-of-fit test results for the average value of forecasts of each month for 1991 to 2021, the MLR models showed -3.3 to -0.1% for the percent bias (PBIAS), 0.45 to 0.50 for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and 0.69 to 0.70 for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), whereas, the ANN models showed PBIAS -5.0~+0.5%, NSE 0.35~0.47, and r 0.64~0.70. The mean values predicted by the MLR models were found to be closer to the observation than the ANN models. The probability of including observations within the forecast range for each month was 57.5 to 83.6% (average 72.9%) for the MLR models, and 71.5 to 88.7% (average 81.1%) for the ANN models, indicating that the ANN models showed better results. The tercile probability by month was 25.9 to 41.9% (average 34.6%) for the MLR models, and 30.3 to 39.1% (average 34.7%) for the ANN models. Both models showed long-term predictability of monthly precipitation with an average of 33.3% or more in tercile probability. In conclusion, the difference in predictability between the two models was found to be relatively small. However, when judging from the hit rate for the prediction range or the tercile probability, the monthly deviation for predictability was found to be relatively small for the ANN models.