• Title/Summary/Keyword: predicted deviation

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Predicting the Morton Effect in a Steam Turbine with Sensitivity Vector (민감도 벡터를 이용한 스팀 터빈의 Morton Effect 발생 예측)

  • Donghyun Lee;Byungock Kim;Byungchan Jeon;Junho Suh;Shinhun Kang;Seryong Kim
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2024
  • The Morton effect (ME) is an instability phenomenon occurring in rotating machineries supported by fluid film bearings and is induced by the thermal deformation of the overhung mass, which is a part of the rotating shaft. Herein, we describe the ME during the high-speed balancing test of a 20 MW class steam turbine. Additionally, to predict the rotating speed at which the ME occurs, we apply the sensitivity vector theory for the steam turbine. During the operation of the steam turbine, we observe a continuous increase in vibration and hysteresis near the rated speed, which is typical of the ME. Increasing the temperature of the lubricating oil supplied to the bearings from 40 to 60℃ suppresses the occurrence of the ME. The rotordynamic analysis for the steam turbine suggests the existence of a mode in which the overhung mass undergoes significant deformation near the rated speed, and we presume that such a mode will increase the occurrence of the ME. The predicted rotating speed of ME occurrence, obtained through the sensitivity vector method, correlates with the test results. Moreover, increasing the temperature of the supplied lubricating oil mitigates the occurrence of ME by reducing the sensitivity between the temperature deviation vector and unbalance mass vector.

The Study on the Confidence Building for Evaluation Methods of a Fracture System and Its Hydraulic Conductivity (단열체계 및 수리전도도의 해석신뢰도 향상을 위한 평가방법 연구)

  • Cho Sung-Il;Kim Chun-Soo;Bae Dae-Seok;Kim Kyung-Su;Song Moo-Young
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.15 no.2 s.42
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    • pp.213-227
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    • 2005
  • This study aims to assess the problems with investigation method and to suggest the complementary solutions by comparing the predicted data from surface investigation with the outcome data from underground cavern. In the study area, one(NE-1) of 6 fracture zones predicted during the surface investigation was only confirmed in underground caverns. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the confidence level for prediction. In this study, the fracture classification criteria was quantitatively suggested on the basis of the BHTV images of NE-1 fracture zone. The major orientation of background fractures in rock mass was changed at the depth of the storage cavern, the length and intensity were decreased. These characteristics result in the deviation of predieted predicted fracture properties and generate the investigation bias depending on the bore hole directions and investigated scales. The evaluation of hydraulic connectivity in the surface investigation stage needs to be analyze by the groundwater pressures and hydrochemical properties from the monitoring bore hole(s) equipped with a double completion or multi-packer system during the test bore hole is pumping or injecting. The hydraulic conductivities in geometric mean measured in the underground caverns are 2-3 times lower than those from the surface and furthermore the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in geometric mean is six times lower than the vertical one. To improve confidence level of the hydraulic conductivity, the orientation of test hole should be considered during the analysis of the hydraulic conductivity and the methodology of hydro-testing and interpretation should be based on the characteristics of rock mass and investigation purposes.

Long-term forecasting reference evapotranspiration using statistically predicted temperature information (통계적 기온예측정보를 활용한 기준증발산량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1243-1254
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    • 2021
  • For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.

Non-Fickian Diffusion of Organic Solvents in Fluoropolymeys (불소고분자내 유기용매의 비-픽 확산)

  • 이상화
    • Polymer(Korea)
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2004
  • Transient sorption experiments were conducted among several combinations of fluoropolymers and various organic solvents. Fully fluorinated polymer tended to exhibit ideal sorption behavior, while partially fluorinated polymers showed anomalous sorption behaviors with a drastic acceleration at the final stage of uptake. Minimization of least-squares of the measured and predicted fractional uptake, which indicated the increasing degree of deviation from Fickian diffusion, gave values of 3.0${\times}$10$\^$-4/, 1.75${\times}$10$\^$-3/, 8.68${\times}$10/sup-3/, 1.75${\times}$10$\^$-2/, respectively, for perfluoroalkoxy copolymer, poly(ethylene-co-tetrafluoroethylene), poly(vinylidene fluoride), poly(ethylene-co-chlorotrifluoroethylene). From stress-strain tests, it was confirmed that non-Fickian diffusion is closely related to the significant variation of mechanical properties (such as modulus and tensile strength) of swollen polymer. Anomalous sorption behavior stemmed from non-Fickian diffusion caused by nonlinear disruption of polar inter-segmental bonds due to solvent-induced plasticization. Thus, it is imperative to investigate the diffusion behavior of swelling solvents in partially fluorinated polymers, especially for the application to barrier materials or perm-selective membranes.

A Devolatilization Model of Woody Biomass Particle in a Fluidized Bed Reactor (유동층 반응기에서의 목질계 바이오매스 입자의 탈휘발 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Kwang-Su;Leckner, Bo;Lee, Jeong-Woo;Lee, Uen-Do;Choi, Young-Tai
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.850-859
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    • 2012
  • Devolatilization is an important mechanism in the gasification and pyrolysis of woody biomass, and has to be accordingly considered in designing a gasifier. In order to describe the devolatilization process of wood particle, there have been proposed a number of empirical correlations based on experimental data. However, the correlations are limited to apply for various reaction conditions due to the complex nature of wood devolatilization. In this study, a simple model was developed for predicting the devolatilization of a wood particle in a fluidized bed reactor. The model considered the drying, shrinkage and heat generation of intra-particle for a spherical biomass. The influence of various parameters such as size, initial moisture content, heat transfer coefficient, kinetic model and temperature, was investigated. The devolatilization time linearly increased with increasing initial moisture content and size of a wood particle, whereas decreases with reaction temperature. There is no significant change of results when the external heat transfer coefficient is over 300 $W/m^2K$, and smaller particles are more sensitive to the outer heat transfer coefficient. Predicted results from the model show a similar tendency with the experimental data from literatures within a deviation of 10%.

A Study on the Correlations between Total Prostate Volume and Prostate Transition Zone Volume Assessed Using Blood and Ultrasound Tests: in the Healthy Korean Men in Thirties (혈액, 초음파 검사 결과를 이용한 전립선이행대용적의 상관관계 연구: 기초질환이 없는 30대를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.407-412
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the correlations between the total prostate volume (TPV), using the prostate specific antigen (PSA) and prostate specific antigen density (PSAD) as the blood test results and transrectal ultrasound (TRUS), and the prostate transition zone volume (PTZV), as well as variables such as age; the findings can be used as clinical indicators. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 68 healthy men in their 30s who underwent TRUS and PSA and PSAD blood tests from June 2007 to April 2016, with no history of treatment in their prostate. Siemens Acuson sequoia 512 and the probe Siemens EC-10C5 Endocavitary were used as the ultrasound equipment. For statistical analysis, SPSS 18.0 was used to calculate the standard deviation and mean of each variable; Pearson's correlation analysis was also performed. The descriptive statistics of the variables were $24.27{\pm}6.60$ for TPV, $6.99{\pm}6.60$ for PTZV, $2.12{\pm}2.76$ for PSA, and $0.281{\pm}0.1$ for PSAD. The coefficients of correlations between PTZV and variables were 0.831 for PSAD, 0.707 for TPV, 0.398 for age, and 0.118 for PSA. While PSA and age were positively correlated, PSAD and TPV were highly correlated. Therefore, PTZV of men in their 30s without underlying diseases can be predicted using PSAD and TPV.

Prediction of Wind Damage Risk based on Estimation of Probability Distribution of Daily Maximum Wind Speed (일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법)

  • Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2017
  • The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

Prediction of Silking Date of Corn Hybrids Using Beta Function Model in South Korea (Beta 함수 모형을 이용한 국내 옥수수 품종의 출사기 예측)

  • Shim, Kyo-Moon;Kim, Yong-Seok;Lee, Jin-Seok;Jung, Myung-Pyo;Choi, In-tae;Kim, Hojung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.102-109
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    • 2017
  • A temperature-based Beta function model was developed for corn hybrids (Zea mays L.). The beta function based on the hourly temperature was fitted to the phenology data (silking date) obtained for six years from 2008 through 2013 at four survey sites. Using the Beta function model, silking dates for two corn hybrids with the different ecotype ('Danok3', 'Ilmichal') were estimated over two years from 2014 through 2015 at four sites, and then the performance of the model was evaluated based on the data for the same period. The silking dates estimated by the model were predicted earlier than those observed at survey sites. Still, the correlation between estimates and observation was relatively high (r=0.859). The accuracy of the model differed by the survey site and the year, which was likely due to the considerably large standard deviation of the parameter calibrated in this study.

Comparison Analysis between PWL and Probability Theory for Quality Measurement of Asphalt Pavement (아스팔트 포장의 품질측정을 위한 확률이론과 PWL방법의 비교 분석)

  • Choi, Jang-Kyu;Rhee, Suk-Keun;Kim, Seong-Min;Hwang, Sang-Min
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to suggest resonable quality measurement methods of asphalt pavements to be used in the Pay adjustment. The Pay adjustment is a method to adjust the construction cost according to the pavement quality based on the statistic theories. Many U.S states use Pay adjustment and the PWL(Percent with in Limit) is calculated using their quality index tables. In this study, the application of PWL in Korea was evaluated by comparing the PWL South Carolina with the probability theories. The probability values and the PWL obtained using the data collected from the test roads were used to determine the pay factors suggested by AASHTO and the pay factors between them were closed to each other. In addition, the PWL was very similar to the probability obtained using the predicted average of the population when calculating the Z-values. The pay factors were obtained using artificial data whose average satisfied the codes and whose standard deviation was large. The pay factors were less than 100% in the quality measurements can be performed using the PWL methods, and with the development of the korea quality index table, the PWL methods can be applied in korea.

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GLCM Algorithm Image Analysis of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver and Focal Fat Sparing Zone in the Ultrasonography (초음파검사에서 비알콜성 지방간과 국소지방회피영역에 대한 GLCM Algorithm 영상분석)

  • Cho, Jin-Young;Ye, Soo-Young
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2017
  • There is a need for aggressive diagnosis and treatment in middle-aged and high-risk individuals who are more likely to progress from nonalcoholic fatty liver to hepatitis. In this study, nonalcoholic fatty liver was divided into severe, moderate, and severe, and classified by quantitative method using computer analysis of GLCM algorithm. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of ultrasound images in the local fat avoidance region. Normal, mild, moderate, severe fatty liver, and focal fat sparing area, 80 cases, respectively. Among the parameters of the GLCM algorithm, the values of the Autocorrelation, Square of the deviation, Sum of averages and Sum of variances with high recognition rate of the liver ultrasound image were calculated. The average recognition rate of the GLCM algorithm was 97.5%. The result of local fat avoidance image analysis showed the most similar value to the normal parenchyma. Ultrasonography can be easily accessed by primary screening, but there may be differences in the accuracy of the test method or the correspondence of results depending on proficiency. GLCM algorithm was applied to quantitatively classify the degree of fatty liver. Local fat avoidance region was similar to normal parenchyma, so it could be predicted to be homogeneous liver parenchyma without fat deposition. We believe that GLCM computer image analysis will provide important information for differentiating not only fatty liver but also other lesions.