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Geographical Migration of Winter Barley in the Korean Peninsula under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate Condition (신 기후변화시나리오에 따른 한반도 내 겨울보리 재배적지 이동)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Roh, Jae-Hwan;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2012
  • The RCP 8.5 scenario based temperature outlook (12.5 km resolution) was combined with high-definition gridded temperature maps (30 m grid spacing) across the Korean Peninsula in order to reclassify the cold hardiness zone for winter barley, a promising grain crop in the future under warmer winter conditions. Reference maps for the January minimum and mean temperature were prepared by applying the watershed-specific geospatial climate prediction schemes to the synoptic observations from 1981 to 2010 across North and South Korea. Decadal changes in the January minimum and mean temperatures projected by a regional version of RCP8.5 climate change scenario were prepared for the 2011-2100 period at 12.5 km grid spacing and were subsequently added to the reference maps, producing the 30 m resolution temperature surfaces for 9 decades from 2011 to 2100. A criterion for threshold temperature to grow winter barley safely in Korea was applied to the future temperature surfaces and the resulting maps were used to predict the production potential of 3 cultivar groups for the 9 future decades under the projected temperature conditions. By 2020s, hulled barley cultivars could be grown safely at the southern part of North Korea as well as the mountainous Gangwon province. Furthermore, most of South Korean rice paddies will be safe for growing naked barley after harvesting rice. Also, dual cropping systems such as 'winter-barley after rice' could be possible at most of the North Korean rice paddies by 2040s. Additional grain production in North Korea could increase up to 4 million tons per year if dual cropping systems can be fully operated, i.e., winter barley after rice at all lowlands and winter barley after maize or potato at all uplands.

Measurement of Rectal Rodiation dose in the Patients with Uterine Cervix fencer using In Vivo Dosimetry(Diode Detector) (자궁경부암 환자에서 In vivo dosimetry(Diode detector)를 이용할 직장선량의 측정)

  • Kim, Sung-Kee;Kim, Wan-Sun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : A rectum and a bladder should be carefully considered in order to decrease side effects when HDR patient of uterine cervix cancer. Generally speaking, the value of dosimeter at a rectum and a bladder only depends on the value of a planning equipment, while some analyses of the value of dosimetry at rectum with TLD has been reported Or the contrary, it is hardly to find a report with in vivo dosimetry(diode detector). On this thesis, we would like to suggest the following. When a patient of uterine cervix cancer is in therapy, it is helpful to put a diode detector inside of a rectum in order to measure the rectal dose Based upon the result of the dosimetry, the result can be used as basic data at decreasing side effects. Materials and Methods : Six patients of uterine cervix cancer(four with tandem and ovoid, one with cylinder, and the other one with tandem and cylinder) who had been irradiated with HDR. Ir-192 totally 28 times from February 2003 to June 2003. We irradiated twice in the same distant spots with anterior film and lateral film whenever we measured with a diode detector. Then we did planning and compared each film. Results : The result of the measurement 4 patients with a diode detector is the following. The average and deviation from 3 patients with tandem and ovoid were $274.1{\pm}13.4cGy$, from 1 patient with tandem and ovoid were $126.1{\pm}7.2cGy$, from 1 patient with cylinder were $99.7{\pm}7.1cGy$, and from 1 patient with tandem and cylinder were $77.7{\pm}11.5cGy$. Conclusion : It is difficult to predict how the side effect of a rectum since the result of measurement with a diode detector depends on the state of a rectum. According to the result of the study, it is effective to use a TLD or an in vivo dosimetry and measure a rectum in order to consider the side effect. It is very necessary to decrease the amount of irradiation by controlling properly the duration of the irradiation and gauze packing, and by using shield equipments especially when side effects can be expected.

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Studies on changes in bulks of body per dose and in the positioning of duodenum by respiration when treating pancreatic cancer patients with radiation therapy (췌장암 환자의 방사선 치료 시 호흡에 따른 십이지장의 위치 변화 및 선량 당 체적 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Jang, Hyeong-Jun;Chun, Geum-Seong;Park, Yeong-Gyu
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2014
  • Purpose : In the case of treating pancreatic cancer, the importance is put on the spread of dose. Changes take place in duodenum in accordance with respiration. Thus, in this paper, I am going to trace the positioning of duodenum and the changes in bulks of body per dose by scanning the patients' Kilovoltage Cone-Beam CT using the hospital equipped CT-on rail System. Materials and Methods : Seeing three patients, I have acquired KVCBCT by using CT-on rail System and spotted the change in positioning at duodenum after comparing with the preliminary image of treatment plan by using SYNGO Software. Then, I followed the change in the bulk of duodenum and analyzed the changes in bulks of body on the same dose by transmitting the acquired KVCBCT into Pinnacle, a treatment plan system. Results : The changes in the positioning shall be as set forth like this: 1.2cm, 1.0cm in Left-Right Direction, 0cm, 0.8cm in Craniocaudal Direction, 0.1cm, and 1.0cm in Anterior-Posterior Direction. Patient number one showed that his bulks in body had increased by maximum 460%, minimum 120%, the bulks in patient number two had increased bymaximum 490%, minimum 160%, and the bulks of patient number three had increased by maximum 150%. But Minimum volume decreased 30%. Patient number one showed only a little bit of change at first when compared with the preliminary treatment plan. However, the dose increased the bulks in the patient's body: $V_{10}$ 118%, $V_{20}$ 117%, $V_{30}$ 400%, and $V_{40}$ 480% Conclusion : In treating patients with radiation therapy using 3D-CRT, the dose amount penetrated into duodenum needs to be minimized by planning appropriate treatment beforehand. In order to establish an appropriate treatment plan it is required to comprehend the changes at positioning of the duodenum by respiration and predict the changes in the bulks of duodenum by setting precise Planning Target Volume.

Estimation of Total Allowable Pollutant Loads Using Eco-hydrodynamic Modeling for Water Quality Management on the Southern Coast of Korea (생태계 모델에 의한 총허용 오염부하량 산정을 통한 연안해역의 수질관리)

  • Lee, Dae-In;Kim, Jong-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.29-43
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    • 2007
  • For effective management of water quality on the southern coast of korea, a three-dimensional eco-hydrodynamic model is used to predict water quality in summer and to estimate the reduction rate in pollutant loads that would be required to restore water quality. Under the current environmental conditions, in particular, pollutant loadings to the study area were very high, chemical oxygen demand (COD) exceeded seawater quality criteria to comply with current legislation, and water quality was in a eutrophic condition. Therefore, we estimated reduction rates of current pollutant loads by modeling. The model reproduced reasonably the flow field and water quality of the study area. If the terrestrial COD, inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus loads were reduced by 90%, the water quality criteria of Region A were still not satisfied. However, when the nutrient loads from polluted sediment and land were each reduced by 70% simultaneously, COD and $Chl-{\alpha}$ were restored. When we reduced the input COD and nutrient loads from the Nakdong River by 80%, $Chl-{\alpha}$ and COD of Region B decreased below $10\;{\mu}g\;1^{-1}$ and $2\;mg\;1^{-1}$, respectively. The water quality criteria of Region C were satisfied when we reduced the terrestrial COD and nutrient loads by 70%. Total allowable loadings of COD and inorganic nutrients in each region were determined by multiplying the reduction rates by current pollutant loads. Estimated high reduction rates, although difficult to achieve at the present time under the prevailing environmental conditions, suggest that water pollution is very severe in this study area, and pollutant loads must be reduced within total allowable loads by continuous and long-term management. To achieve the reduction in pollutant loads, sustainable countermeasures are necessary, including the expansion of sewage and wastewater facilities, polluted sediment control and limited land use.

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Modeling Paddlewheel-Driven Circulation in a Culture Pond (축제식 양식장에서 수차에 의한 순환 모델링)

  • KANG Yun Ho
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.643-651
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    • 2001
  • Paddlewheel-driven circulation in a culture pond has been simulated based on the depth integrated 2 dimensional hydrodynamic model. Acceleration by paddlewheel is expressed as shaft force divided by water mass discharged by paddlewheel blades. The model has been calibrated and applied to culture ponds as following steps:- i) The model predicted velocities at every 10 m along longitudinal direction from the paddlewheel. The model was calibrated comparing the results with the measured values at mass correction factor $\alpha$ and dimensionless eddy viscosity constant $\gamma$, respectively, in a range $15\~20$ and 6. ii) Wind shear stress was simulated under conditions of direction $0^{\circ}C,\;90^{\circ}C\;and\;180^{\circ}C$ and speed 0.0, 2.5, 5.0 and 7.5 m/s. Change rate of current speed was <$1\%$ at wind in parallel or opposite direction to the paddlewheel-driven jet flow, while $4\%$ at orthogonal angle. iii) The model was then applied to 2 culture ponds located at the Western coast of Korea. The measured and predicted currents for the ponds were compared using the regression analysis. Analysis of flow direction and speed showed correlation coefficients 0.8928 and 0.6782 in pond A, 0.8539 and 0.7071 in pond B, respectively. Hence, the model is concluded to accurately predict circulation driven by paddlewheel such that it can be a useful tool to provide pond management strategy relating to paddlewheel operation and water quality.

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Prediction on Mix Proportion Factor and Strength of Concrete Using Neural Network (신경망을 이용한 콘크리트 배합요소 및 압축강도 추정)

  • 김인수;이종헌;양동석;박선규
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.457-466
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    • 2002
  • An artificial neural network was applied to predict compressive strength, slump value and mix proportion of a concrete. Standard mixed tables were trained and estimated, and the results were compared with those of the experiments. To consider variabilities of material properties, the standard mixed fables from two companies of Ready Mixed Concrete were used. And they were trained with the neural network. In this paper, standard back propagation network was used. The mix proportion factors such as water cement ratio, sand aggregate ratio, unit water, unit cement, unit weight of sand, unit weight of crushed sand, unit coarse aggregate and air entraining admixture were used. For the arrangement on the approval of prediction of mix proportion factor, the standard compressive strength of $180kgf/cm^2{\sim}300kgf/cm^2$, and target slump value of 8 cm, 15 cm were used. For the arrangement on the approval of prediction of compressive strength and slump value, the standard compressive strength of $210kgf/cm^2{\sim}240kgf/cm^2$, and target slump value of 12 cm and 15 cm wore used because these ranges are most frequently used. In results, in the prediction of mix proportion factor, for all of the water cement ratio, sand aggregate ratio, unit water, unit cement, unit weight of sand, unit weight of crushed sand, unit coarse aggregate, air entraining admixture, the predicted values and the values of standard mixed tables were almost the same within the target error of 0.10 and 0.05, regardless of two companies. And in the prediction of compressive strength and slump value, the predicted values were converged well to the values of standard mixed fables within the target error of 0.10, 0.05, 0.001. Finally artificial neural network is successfully applied to the prediction of concrete mixture and compressive strength.

Risk Assessment of Pine Tree Dieback in Sogwang-Ri, Uljin (울진 소광리 금강소나무 고사발생 특성 분석 및 위험지역 평가)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Lee, Bora;Kim, Jaebeom;Cho, Nanghyun;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.109 no.3
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    • pp.259-270
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    • 2020
  • Extreme weather events, such as heat and drought, have occurred frequently over the past two decades. This has led to continuous reports of cases of forest damage due to physiological stress, not pest damage. In 2014, pine trees were collectively damaged in the forest genetic resources reserve of Sogwang-ri, Uljin, South Korea. An investigation was launched to determine the causes of the dieback, so that a forest management plan could be prepared to deal with the current dieback, and to prevent future damage. This study aimedto 1) understand the topographic and structural characteristics of the area which experienced pine tree dieback, 2) identify the main causes of the dieback, and 3) predict future risk areas through the use of machine-learning techniques. A model for identifying risk areas was developed using 14 explanatory variables, including location, elevation, slope, and age class. When three machine-learning techniques-Decision Tree, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to the model, RF and SVM showed higher predictability scores, with accuracies over 93%. Our analysis of the variable set showed that the topographical areas most vulnerable to pine dieback were those with high altitudes, high daily solar radiation, and limited water availability. We also found that, when it came to forest stand characteristics, pine trees with high vertical stand densities (5-15 m high) and higher age classes experienced a higher risk of dieback. The RF and SVM models predicted that 9.5% or 115 ha of the Geumgang Pine Forest are at high risk for pine dieback. Our study suggests the need for further investigation into the vulnerable areas of the Geumgang Pine Forest, and also for climate change adaptive forest management steps to protect those areas which remain undamaged.

Prognostic Values of Preoperative Hematologic Parameters in Gastric Cancer (위암에서 수술 전 혈액학적 검사의 예후인자로서의 가치)

  • Kim Hyoung-Ju;Kwon Sung Joon
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.29-33
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: To determine the prognostic values of the hematologic parameters checked preoperatively in gastric cancer patients, we evaluated and compared the relationship between hematologic parameters and clinicopathologic factors of gastric cancer patient. Materials and Methods: The medical records of 357 consecutive patients who had undergone surgery for gastric cancer at the Department of Surgery, Hanyang University Hospital, between Dec. 2,000 and Dec. 2003 were reviewed. To exclude any adverse effect of invasive procedures to hematologic parameters, the samples taken immediately at outpatient department was used. The normal range of serum albumin was defined above 3.5 g/dl, serum hemoglobin above 12 g/dl, and serum platelet count under $400\times10^{3}{\mu}l$. Patients were defined as group 1 when any of these parameters was abnormal, and defined as group 2 when all parameters were normal. The relationships between hematologic parameters and survival rate were investigated. Results: The mean values of platelet count increased, but level of serum albumin and serum hemoglobin decreased significantly according to the advancement of the disease stage (P=0.000). The differences of depth of tumor invasion and lymph node metastasis between the group 1 and the group2 was statistically significant (P=0.001). Three-year survival difference between group 1 and group 2 was significant (P=0.037). Conclusion: The hematologic parameters checked preoperatively in patients of gastric cancer are simple and cheap, meanwhile reflect the general condition of the patients. Any presence of anemia, hypoalbuminemia, or thrombocytosis can predict the progression of the disease and poor survival rates.

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The role of the pulmonary function test and the exercise test for assessing impairment/disability in patients with chronic airflow obstruction (심한 만성기류폐쇄 환자의 Impairment/Disability 측정에 있어 폐기능검사 및 운동부하검사의 역할)

  • Cheon, Seon-Hee
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.377-387
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    • 1996
  • Background : In 1980, WHO made a definition in which the term "impairment" as applied to the respiratory system is used to describe loss of lung function, "disability" the resulting diminution in exercise capacity. The measurement of pulmonary function during exercise would give us information about overall functional capacity and respiratory performance that would be lacking in tests performed at rest. We conducted this study to investigate the role of resting pulmonary function test and exercise test for assessing impairment/disability in patients with chronic airflow obstruction(CAO). Method : We studied 19 patients with CAO. The spirometry and body plethysmograph were performed in stable condition. And then patients performed a progressive incremental exercise test to a symptom-limited maximum using cycle ergometer. Patients were divided in two groups, severe and non-severe impairment, according to the resting PFTs and compaired each other. A patient was considered to be severely impaired if FVC < 50 %, FEV1 < 40 % or FEV1/FVC < 40 %. Results : 1) The airway obstruction and hypoxemia of severe impairment group were more severe and exercise performance was markedly reduced compairing to non-severe impairment group. 2) The severe impairment group showed ventilatory limitation during exercise test and the limiting symptomes ware dyspnea in 9/10 patients. 3) The impairment and disability of the patients with tuberculous destructed lung were most marked in patients with CAO. 4) The FEV1 was the most prevalent criterion for the determination of severe impairment based on resting PFTs and was the valuable best correlated to V02max(r=0.81, p < 0.001). 5) The sensitivity of exercise limits for predicting severe disability according to resting PFTs was 80 % and specificity 89 %. Conclusion : In patients with severe CAO, FEV1 is a good predictive of exercise performance and impairment measured by resting PFTs can predict a disability by exercise test.

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Predictors of Drug-resistance in Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis (폐결핵환자에서 약제내성의 예측인자)

  • Koh, Hyung-Ki;Kang, Yoon-Jung;Lim, Sung-Yong;Shin, Jong-Wook;Choi, Jae-Sun;Yoo, Ji-Hoon;Kim, Jae-Yeol;Park, In-Won;Choi, Byoung-Whui;Hue, Sung-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.311-316
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    • 1999
  • Background: The drug-resistant tuberculosis has recently decreased in Korea, but it is still one of the major obstacles in the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis. Unfortunately there are no reliable ways to figure out the drug sensitivity pattern of the M. tuberculosis in the starting point of treatment. At least several months which is critical for the success of treatment have to be passed away before getting the report of drug-sensitivity test. The aim of this study was to find out the clinical and radiological parameters that make it possible to predict the drug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis and to make a correct decision on the antituberculosis drug regimens. Method: We studied 253 pulmonary TB patients with sputum and/or bronchial washing fluid culture-positive diagnosed at the Chung-Ang University Young-San Hospital in the period of 1989-1994. The differences in the clinical and raiological variables between the drug-sensitive and the drug-resistant tuberculosis patients were evaluated. Results: In 66 out of 253 patients(26.1%), drug resistant tuberculosis to at least one antituberculosis drug were found. Patients with retreatment showed higher resistance rate than those with initial treatment(30/69, 43.5% vs 36/184, 19.5%, p<0.01). Patients with cavitary TB showed higher resistance rate than those with non-cavitary TB(24/54, 44.4% vs 42/199, 21.1%, p<0.05). Among patients with initial treatment, those with far-advanced TB showed a higher drug resistance rate than those with minimal lesion(9/23, 36.9% vs 10/82, 12.5%, p<0.05). Patients with culture positive only in the bronchial washing fluid showed lower resistance rate than those with sputum culture positive(7/63, 11.1 % vs 59/190, 31.1%, p<0.05). Conclusion: Prior treatment history for pulmonary tuberculosis, the presence of cavity & far advanced tuberculosis in the radiologic exam, sputum rather than solely bronchial washing culture positivity would be the related factors to the drug resistance. So in the patients with such characteristics, it is needed to try to find out the drug sensitivity pattern of the infecting tuberculosis organism as soon as possible.

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