• 대기
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.615-626
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• 2019

To find any effects of precipitation climate on the forecast verification methods, we processed the hourly records of precipitation over South Korea. We examined their relationship between the climate and the methods of verification. Precipitation is an intermittent process in South Korea, generally less than an hour or so. Percentile ratio of precipitation period against the entire period of the records is only 14% in the hourly amounts of precipitation. The value of the forecast verification indices heavily depends on the climate of rainfall. The direct comparison of the index values might force us to have a mistaken appraisal on the level of the forecast capability of a weather forecast center. The size of the samples for verification is not crucial as long as it is large enough to satisfy statistical stability. Our conclusion is still temporal rather than conclusive. We may need the amount of precipitation per minute for the confirmation of the present results.

• 대기
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.159-171
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• 2014

This study investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of summertime (June-August) precipitation over Korean peninsula, using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)is Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data for the period of 1973-2010 and Automatic Weather System (AWS) data for the period of 1998-2010.The authors looked through climatological features of the summertime precipitation, then examined the degree of locality of the precipitation, and probable precipitation amount and its return period of 100 years (i.e., an extreme precipitation event). The amount of monthly total precipitation showed increasing trends for all the summer months during the investigated 38-year period. In particular, the increasing trends were more significant for the months of July and August. The increasing trend of July was seen to be more attributable to the increase of precipitation intensity than that of frequency, while the increasing trend of August was seen to be played more importantly by the increase of the precipitation frequency. The e-folding distance, which is calculated using the correlation of the precipitation at the reference station with those at all other stations, revealed that it is August that has the highest locality of hourly precipitation, indicating higher potential of localized heavy rainfall in August compared to other summer months. More localized precipitation was observed over the western parts of the Korean peninsula where terrain is relatively smooth. Using the 38-years long series of maximum daily and hourly precipitation as input for FARD2006 (Frequency Analysis of Rainfall Data Program 2006), it was revealed that precipitation events with either 360 mm $day^{-1}$ or 80 mm $h^{-1}$ can occur with the return period of 100 years over the Korean Peninsula.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2007

본 연구에서는 우리나라 육상 국지 예보 구역을 대상으로 예보 정확도를 분석하였다. 연구 기간 동안 평가 요소별 정확도는 강수 유무가 가장 낮았고 하늘 상태가 가장 높았다. 지역적으로 예보 정확도는 강원도에서 가장 낮았으며 경상남도와 경상북도에서 높았다. 계절별 예보 정확도의 만점 빈도는 겨울에 가장 높았고 여름에 가장 낮았다. 예보 정확도가 낮은 날의 기압 배치형을 분석했을 때 여름철에는 정체전선형 기압 배치에서 강수 유무의 예보 정확도가 낮았다. 가을과 겨울에는 한대 고기압 확장형 기압 배치에서 기온 예보의 정확도가 크게 낮아지는 경우가 많았다. 봄과 가을의 이동성 고기압형 기압 배치에서는 날씨가 급격하게 변하여 예보 정확도가 낮았다. 예보 정확도가 가장 낮은 지역인 영동 지역의 상층 850hPa 고도의 풍향 자료와 예보 정확도를 비교하여 분석한 결과, 최저 및 최고 기온은 서풍일 때, 강수 유무의 경우 동풍일 때 예보 정확도가 낮았다.

• 대기
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.151-158
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• 2014

This study investigated a method for the discrimination of precipitation type using thickness of geopotential height at 1000~850 hPa and improved Matsuo's scheme over South Korea using 7 upper-level observations data during winter time from 2003 to 2008. With this research, it was suggested that thickness between snow and rain should range from 1281 to 1297 gpm at 1000~850 hPa. This threshold was suitable for determining precipitation type such as snow, sleet and rain and it was verified by investigation at 7 upper-level observation and 10 surface observation data for 3 years (2009~2011). In addition, precipitation types were separated properly by Matsuo's scheme and its improved one, which is a fuction of surface air temperature and relative humidity, when they lie in mixed sectors. Precipitation types in the mixed sector were subdivided into 5 sectors (rain, rain and snow, snow and rain, snow, and snow cover). We also present the decision table for monitoring and predicting precipitation types using model output of Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) and observation data.

• 경영과학
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.97-108
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• 2015

This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.

• 대기
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.67-83
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• 2015

Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.

• 대기
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.247-257
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• 2006

The Yeong-dong heavy snowfall forecast supporting system has been developed during the last several years. In order to construct the conceptual model, we have examined the characteristics of heavy snowfalls in the Yeong-dong region classified into three precipitation patterns. This system is divided into two parts: forecast and observation. The main purpose of the forecast part is to produce value-added data and to display the geography based features reprocessing the numerical model results associated with a heavy snowfall. The forecast part consists of four submenus: synoptic fields, regional fields, precipitation and snowfall, and verification. Each offers guidance tips and data related with the prediction of heavy snowfalls, which helps weather forecasters understand better their meteorological conditions. The observation portion shows data of wind profiler and snow monitoring for application to nowcasting. The heavy snowfall forecast supporting system was applied and tested to the heavy snowfall event on 28 February 2006. In the beginning stage, this event showed the characteristics of warm precipitation pattern in the wind and surface pressure fields. However, we expected later on the weak warm precipitation pattern because the center of low pressure passing through the Straits of Korea was becoming weak. It was appeared that Gangwon Short Range Prediction System simulated a small amount of precipitation in the Yeong-dong region and this result generally agrees with the observations.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 단기 예측강우를 활용하여 실시간 유량을 예측할 수 있는 기상-수자원 연계기법을 개발하였다. 이를 위해 기상청의 RDAPS 강수자료와 저류함수(SFM) 모델을 통해 소양강댐 상류유역의 댐유입량을 계산하고 그 정확도를 분석하였다. 대상 사례기간인 2003년 7월 18일부터 2003년 7월 24일까지 RDAPS 강우예측자료의 정확도를 평가한 결과 RDAPS 및 관측 강수량 사이의 정성적 평가에서 매우 우수한 정확도를 보이고, 수자원 측면에서 필요한 정량적 성격을 충족시키는 것으로 나타났다. RDAPS-SFM 연계기법을 통한 하천유량 계산에서도 그 정확도가 비교적 높은 것으로 검토되어 현재의 하천 유량 예측에서 기상 수치예보자료의 활용성은 매우 높은 것으로 사료된다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.1690-1707
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• 2021

Precipitation prediction during flood season has been a key task of climate prediction for a long time. This type of prediction is linked with the national economy and people's livelihood, and is also one of the difficult problems in climatology. At present, there are some precipitation forecast models for the flood season, but there are also some deviations from these models, which makes it difficult to forecast accurately. In this paper, based on the measured precipitation data from the flood season from 1993 to 2019 and the precipitation return data of CWRF, ANN cycle modeling and a weighted integration method is used to correct the CWRF used in today's operational systems. The MAE and TCC of the precipitation forecast in the flood season are used to check the prediction performance of the proposed algorithm model. The results demonstrate a good correction effect for the proposed algorithm. In particular, the MAE error of the new algorithm is reduced by about 50%, while the time correlation TCC is improved by about 40%. Therefore, both the generalization of the correction results and the prediction performance are improved.

• 대기
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.185-196
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• 2011

The performance assessment in radiosonde observation on the special observation program (ProbeX-2009) is performed and the characteristics of precipitation using Auto Weather System (AWS) and radiosonde data in 2009 at the Ulleungdo are investigated. The launching time, observation time, and maximum altitude of radiosonde are satisfied with the regulation from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) but the duration of observational time of radiosonde is much shorter than that of the ProbeX-2007 because the altitude of launching site is higher than others in 2007. From the analysis of trajectories of radiosonde, most radiosondes at the Ulleungdo tend to move into the east because the westerly prevail at the middle latitude. However, when the Okhotsk high is expanded to the Korean peninsula and the north-westerly winds strengthen over the East Sea as the subtropical high is retreated, radiosonde tends to move into the south-west and south-east, respectively. Maximum distance appears at the end of observation level before May but the level of maximum distance is changed into 100 hPa after June because the prevailing wind direction is reversed from westerly to easterly at the stratosphere during summer time. The condition of precipitation was more correlated with the dynamic instability except Changma season. Precipitation in 2009 at the Ulleungdo occurred under the marine climate so that total precipitation amounts and precipitation intensity were increased and intensified during nighttime. The local environment favorable for the precipitation during nighttime was while the wind speed at the surface and the inflow from the shoreline were strengthened. Precipitation events also affected by synoptic condition but the localized effect induced by topography was more strengthened at the northern part of Ulleungdo.