• Title/Summary/Keyword: population growth model

Search Result 356, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

The research on Swedish elderly welfare (스웨덴의 노인복지 고찰)

  • Lee, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
    • /
    • v.6 no.2
    • /
    • pp.161-182
    • /
    • 1994
  • The steady rise in life expectancy resulting from progress in medical science and economic growth and improved living conditions is responsible for large and increasing-number of older peoples in our country. The older peoples who are increasing make up a large percentage of our total population. Now a day the percentage of older people 60 and 65 years old over compose around 8.7% and 5% of the total population in each. In spite of such a rapidly increasing trend of older population, there has had no provisions for elderly welfare in our country. The reason why some children do not want to take care of their older parents, and the other is the lack of elderly welfare, are responsible for large and increasing anxiety of livelihood and alienation to the number of older peoples. As mentioned above, especially studying Swedish elderly welfare model of many developed countries, it intend to provide many of the useful materials to make the elderly welfare systems in our country. The main research for Swedish elderly welfare are as follows : (1) Old age pension systems (2) Social service systems (3) Health care service systems (4) Housing care service systems.

  • PDF

Influence of microenvironment on the spatial distribution of Himantormia lugubris (Parmeliaceae) in ASPA No. 171, maritime Antarctic

  • Choi, Seung Ho;Kim, Seok Cheol;Hong, Soon Gyu;Lee, Kyu Song
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.38 no.4
    • /
    • pp.493-503
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study analyzed how spatial distribution of Himantormia lugubris is affected by the microenvironment in the Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA) No. 171 located in the Barton Peninsula of King George Island that belongs to the maritime Antarctic. In order to determine the population structure of H. lugubris growing in Baekje Hill within ASPA No. 171, we counted the individuals of different size groups after dividing the population into 5 growth stages according to mean diameter as follows: ≤ 1 cm, 1-3 cm, 3-5 cm, 5-10 cm, and ≥ 10 cm. The count of H. lugubris individuals in each growth stage was converted into its percentage with respect to the entire population, which yielded the finding that stages 1 through 5 accounted for 32.8%, 25.3%, 15.9%, 22.5%, and 3.5%, respectively. This suggests that the population of H. lugubris in ASPA No. 171 has a stable reverse J-shaped population structure, with the younger individuals outnumbering mature ones. The mean density of H. lugubris was 17.6/0.25 m2, mean canopy cover 13.3%, and the mean dry weight 37.8 g/0.25 m2. It began to produce spore in the sizes over 3 cm, and most individuals measuring 5-10 cm were adults with sexually mature apothecia. The spatial distribution of H. lugubris was highly heterogeneous. The major factors influencing its distribution and performance were found to be the period covered by snow, wind direction, moisture, size of the substrate, and canopy cover of Usnea spp. Based on these factors, we constructed a prediction model for estimating the spatial distribution of H. lugubris. Conclusively, the major factors for the spatial distribution of H. lugubris were snow, wind, substrate and the competition with Usnea spp. These results are important for understanding of the distribution in the maritime Antarctic and evolution of H. lugubris that claims a unique life history and ecological niche.

Development of Population-based Prevention Strategies for Childhood Obesity: Applied WHO Model (아동.청소년 비만 예방을 위한 인구기반 예방 전략 개발:WHO 모형의 적용)

  • Kim, Ki-Rang;Lee, Eun-Young;Kim, Hye-Ryun
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.43-55
    • /
    • 2011
  • Objectives: The objectives of this study were to describe population-based prevention strategies for childhood obesity and to discuss its application in a city in Korea. Methods: Literature review and empirical findings for ongoing programs were performed to develop population-based prevention strategies for childhood obesity with the framework and principles of WHO population-based prevention strategies for childhood obesity. Results: The developed framework had five key strategies (supportive policies, supportive environment, supportive program, strategic development & leadership, and monitoring & evaluation) under hierarchic objectives (long-term, middle-term and short-term) with the vision of healthy growth and development of all children and youth. Each strategy included evidence-based action plans with WHO principles. Conclusions: The developed strategies have advanced the existing strategies for childhood obesity prevention by providing the sustainable and systematic framework and action plans based on ecological approach. Further, the feasibility for operating the strategies needs to be verified.

Evaluation for Sustainability of Land Use in Jeju Island using Ecological Footprint (EF) (생태발자국 지수를 통한 제주도 토지자원 활용의 지속가능성 평가)

  • Kim, Chanwoo;Jung, Chanhoon;Kim, Yooan;Kim, Solhee;Suh, Kyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
    • /
    • v.24 no.3
    • /
    • pp.43-54
    • /
    • 2018
  • The residential population of Jeju Island has increased more than 10% for last 10 years. Especially, the tourist population is more than twice comparing to 2005. The population growth of Jeju has brought about large-scale urban development and increased land demands for tourism services. The goal of this study is to analyze the human, social, and environmental status of Jeju Island and to evaluate the environmental capacity of land use using ecological footprint (EF) model. This study shows the changes in ecological deficits of Jeju Island through estimating ecological productive land (EPL) considering EF from 2005 to 2015. The categories of total EF consists of food land, built-up land, forestry, and energy consumption. In order to reflect the characteristics of resort island, we consider not only residential population but also tourist population who can increase land demands. The outputs of this study also provide the potential excess demands of EPL and suggest needs of sustainable management plans for the limited land of Jeju Island.

Development of a model to forecast the external migration rate in development projects reflecting city characteristics

  • Kim, Ki-Bum;Park, Joon;Seo, Jee-Won;Yu, Young-Jun;Hyun, In-Hwan;Koo, Ja-Yong
    • Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.406-419
    • /
    • 2018
  • In planning public service systems such as waterworks, the design population is very important factor. Owing to the limitations of the indirect method, two new models, which take into consideration urban characteristics, were developed to accurately predict external migration rate (EMR), which is an essential component in estimating reliably the design population. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the model values and observed values were 10.12 and 15.58 for the metropolitan cities and counties respectively and were lower compared to RMSE values of 27.31 and 28.79 obtained by the indirect method. Thus, the developed models provide a more accurate estimate of EMR than the indirect method. In addition, the major influencing factors for external migration in counties were development type, ageing index, number of businesses. On the other hand, the major influencing migration factors for cities were project scale, distance to city center, manufacturing size, population growth rate and residential environment. Future medium and long-term studies would be done to identify emerging trends to appropriately inform policy making.

Population parameters and sustainable status of lompa fish Thryssa baelama (Forsskal, 1775) manage through sasi approach at Haruku Village

  • Tetelepta, Johannes M.S.;Natan, Yuliana;Pattikawa, Jesaja A.;Bernardus, Agil S.
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.101-116
    • /
    • 2022
  • The harvesting season of lompa fish, Thryssa baelama, through sasi, indigenous knowledge in resources management, in Haruku Village has become a socio-cultural event that attracts many people. The sasi of lompa fish has been conducted for hundreds of years. Information on the bioecology aspect of lompa fish is limited, while this information is crucial for lompa fish sustainability through the sasi approach. This study aimed to investigate some population parameters of lompa fish, its sustainability status, and proposed a sustainable management strategy for the lompa fishery of Haruku Village. Fish population parameter covers length-weight relationship, growth pattern, size distribution, sex ratio, and the body condition index. The sustainability status was assessed following the Rapfish approach. Fisheries management strategy was performed using a conceptual model framework based on Driver Pressure State Impact Response. The research shows that the total length varies between 9.2-14.3 cm. A high relationship was found between total length and weight, and the growth pattern was an allometric negative. There was a difference in sex ratio between males and females, with females dominant. The body condition index varies over time, probably due to reproductive status. The overall sustainability status was at fair condition (61.60%), with the ecological domain having the highest sustainable status (71.07%) and considered sustain. In comparison, the technological domain had the lowest sustainability status (52.58%) and was considered fair sustain. There were seven management strategies proposed for sustainable management for the lompa fishery.

Characterization of Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) for Growth using Genome Scanning in Korean Native Pig

  • Lee, H.K.;Choi, I.S.;Choi, B.H.;Kim, T.H.;Jung, I.J.
    • Reproductive and Developmental Biology
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.107-112
    • /
    • 2004
  • Molecular genetic markers were genotyped used to detect chromosomal regions which contain economically important traits such as growth traits in pigs. Three generation resource population was constructed from a cross between the Korean native boars and Landrace sows. A total of 193 F2 animals from intercross of F1 were produced. Phenotypic data on 7 traits, birth weight, body weight at 3, 5, 12, 30 weeks of age, live empty weight were collected for F2 animals. Animals including grandparents (F0), parents (F1), offspring (F2) were genotyped for 194 microsatellite markers covering from chromosome 1 to 18. Quantitative trait locus analyses were performed using interval mapping by regression under line-cross model. To characterize presence of imprinting, genetic full model in which dominance, additive and imprinting effect were included was fitted in this analysis. Significance thresholds were determined by permutation test. Using imprinting full model, four QTL with expression of imprinted effect were detected at 5% chromosome-wide significance level for growth traits on chromosome 1, 5, 7, 13, 14, and 16.

Predicting Land Use Change Affected by Population Growth by Integrating Logistic Regression, Markov Chain and Cellular Automata Models

  • Nguyen, Van Trung;Le, Thi Thu Ha;La, Phu Hien
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.35 no.4
    • /
    • pp.221-230
    • /
    • 2017
  • Demographic change was considered to be the most major driver of land use change although there were several interacting factors involved, especially in the developing countries. This paper presents an approach to predict the future land use change using a hybrid model. A hybrid model consisting of logistic regression model, Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) was designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. Experiment was conducted in Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh Province, Vietnam. Demography and socio-economic variables dealing with urban sprawl were used to create a probability surface of spatio-temporal states of built-up land use for the years 2009, 2019, and 2029. The predicted land use maps for the years 2019 and 2029 show substantial urban development in the area, much of which are located in areas sensitive to source protections. It also showed that aquacultural land changes substantially in areas where are in the vicinity of estuary or near the sea dike. There was considerable variation between the communes; notably, communes with higher household density and higher proportion of people in working age have larger increases in aquacultural areas. The results of the analysis can provide valuable information for local planners and policy makers, assisting their efforts in constructing alternative sustainable urban development schemes and environmental management strategies.

Effects of Socioeconomic Factors and Forest Environments on Demand for Rural Residential Development (농촌 주거지 개발 수요에 대한 사회경제적 요인 및 산림환경의 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Yohan;Ji, Seongtae
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.199-228
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study investigates the effects of economic factors and forest environments on rural residential area development in seven north central states of the U.S. by focusing on the relative importance of not only economic factors but also forest environments by forest type as core drivers of residential development. An empirical model of locations and magnitudes of population changes since 1950 in the north central region is first constructed, and then a panel model with fixed effects for counties is used to explain population growth by age group over time at the county level. Then a set of three equations is estimated for three major age groups, and a cross-sectional model is estimated for the last time period that regresses county-level environmental amenity variables on fixed effects coefficients for counties. Finally, an equation explaining changes in rural housing density is estimated. The results imply that immigrant age is a key factor influencing the choice of the place of residence and that the effects of environmental amenity factors on population growth and subsequent housing development in a county vary according to the age group.

A History of Investigations of Population Dynamics and Epidemiology (집단 및 질병 동역학에 대한 역사발생적 고찰)

  • Lee, Weon Jae;Han, Gil Jun
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
    • /
    • v.26 no.2_3
    • /
    • pp.197-210
    • /
    • 2013
  • The late 18C Malthus studied population growth for the first time, Verhulst the logistic model in 19C and, after that, the study of the predation competition between two species resulted in the appearance of Lotka-Volterra model and modified model supported by Gause's experiment with bacteria. Instable coexistence equilibrium being found, Solomon and Holling proposed functional and numerical response considering limited abilities of predator on prey, which applied to Lotka Volterra model. Nicholson and Baily, considering the predation between host and parasitoid in discrete time, made a model. In 20C there were developed various models of disease dynamics with the help of mathematics and real data and named SIS, SIR or SEIR on the basis of dynamical phenomena.