• Title/Summary/Keyword: population growth model

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Relationship between Change of Demographic Composition and Crime : Comparing Areas with Growth in Population to Areas with Decline

  • Lee, Soochang;Kim, Daechan
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2022
  • This study is to investigate that population change as a result of the decline in population has a correlation with a decrease in crime, with the change in the demographic composition by comparing with two models: model with growth in population and one with the decline in population. We collected demographic data for all cities in Korea from the 2010 Census to 2020 offered by the Korean Statistical Information Service, with crime data comprising serious reported crime events from the Korean Nation Police Agency through requesting data related to the total number of crimes at the same as the period of demographic data. This study can identify the impacts of demographic changes as a result of population change on crime change through a comparative analysis between areas with population growth and ones with population decline. We can confirm that there are differences in determinants of crime between areas with population increase and one with population decrease from the analysis of the impact of demographic change as a result of population change on crime change.

Establishment of the Measurement Model about the Adequate Urban Development Density using System Dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 도시개발밀도의 적정성 평가 모델 구축 연구)

  • 전유신;문태훈
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.71-94
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this dissertation is to build a development density control model and estimate optimum developmental density level for a sustainable urban growth management. To develop the model, system dynamics modeling approach was used. The model was developed to analyze how urban growth, transition, and decay occur depending on the interaction among population, houses, industry structure, land and urban infrastructure such as road, water supply, and sewage treatment facilities. The model was applied to Anyang city to estimate optimum density level. Extensive computer simulation was conducted to find out the maximum numbers of population, industry structure, houses, and cars that can be adequately sustained with the current Anyang city's infrastructure capacity. The computer simulation result shows that the city is overpopulated by some 90,000 people. It nab analyzed that 20% increase of existing capacity of urban infrastructure is necessary to support current population of Anyang city. To reduce the population to the adequate level whereby the current urban infrastructure can sustain, the current city regulation on floor area ratio needs be strengthened at least 20% to 35%.

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Modeling Growth Kinetics of Lactic Acid Bacteria for Food Fermentation

  • Chung, Dong-Hwa;Kim, Myoung-Dong;Kim, Dae-Ok;Koh, Young-Ho;Seo, Jin-Ho
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.664-671
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    • 2006
  • Modeling the growth kinetics of lactic acid bacteria (LAB), one of the most valuable microbial groups in the food industry, has been actively pursued in order to understand, control, and optimize the relevant fermentation processes. Most modeling approaches have focused on the development of single population models. Primary single population models provide fundamental kinetic information on the proliferation of a primary LAB species, the effects of biological factors on cell inhibition, and the metabolic reactions associated with cell growth. Secondary single population models can evaluate the dependence of primary model parameters, such as the maximum specific growth rate of LAB, on the initial external environmental conditions. This review elucidates some of the most important single population models that are conveniently applicable to the LAB fermentation analyses. Also, a well-defined mixed population model is presented as a valuable tool for assessing potential microbial interactions during fermentation with multiple LAB species.

The Nexus between Urbanization, Gross Capital Formation and Economic Growth: A Study of Saudi Arabia

  • KHAN, Uzma
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.677-682
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    • 2020
  • To investigate the nexus between urban population, gross capital formation, and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, yearly data was collected from the World Bank for the period 1974- 2018. Basic statistics test and correlation matrix was used to investigate the causal effect among the tested parameters, followed by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary test, co-integration analysis by Johansen test after that Vector Auto-Correction Model for both short-run and long-run and finally the Granger-Causality tests. Result of unit root test analysis shows that the urban population became stationary at I (0) level while economic growth and gross capital formation became stationary at I (1). Johansen co-integration analysis indicates that there is presence of both long-run and short-run relationship between the three variables in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The result of the VECM Model reflects that both economic growth and gross capital formation have a negative impact on urban population in the short run. According to the Granger-Causality tests, there is unidirectional causality with the urban population by both gross capital formation and economic growth. Also, the result of the Granger Causality tests show that there is unidirectional causality between economic growth and gross capital formations.

Comparison of Models to Describe Growth of Green Algae Chlorella vulgaris for Nutrient Removal from Piggery Wastewater (양돈폐수의 영양염류 제거를 위한 녹조류 Chlorella vulgaris 성장 모형의 비교)

  • Lim, Byung-Ran;Jutidamrongphan, Warangkana;Park, Ki-Young
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2010
  • Batch experiments were conducted to investigate growth and nutrient removal performance of microalgae Chlorella vulgaris by using piggery wastewater in different concentration of pollutants and the common growth models (logistic, Gompertz and Richards) were applied to compare microalgal growth parameters. Removal of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) by Chlorella vulgaris showed correlation with biomass increase, implying nutrient uptake coupled with microalgae growth. The higher the levels of suspended solids (SS), COD and ammonia nitrogen were in the wastewater, the worse growth of Chlorella vulgaris was observed, showing the occurrence of growth inhibition in higher concentration of those pollutants. The growth parameters were estimated by non-linear regression of three growth curves for comparative analyses. Determination of growth parameters were more accurate with population as a variable than the logarithm of population in terms of R square. Richards model represented better fit comparing with logistic and Gompertz model. However, Richards model showed some complexity and sensitivity in calculation. In the cases tested, both logistic and Gompertz equation were proper to describe the growth of microalgae on piggery wastewater as well as easy to application.

The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth: Evidence from Agricultural Countries

  • SIREGAR, Abi Pratiwa;WIDJANARKO, Nadila Puspa Arum
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2022
  • The study investigates the effect of trade openness on the economic growth of agricultural countries. The information of export, import, gross domestic product (GDP), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), and population of 72 agrarian nations generated by the World Bank from 2011 until 2020 is used for data examination. Then, before panel data analysis, a preferred model is chosen from among common-effects, fixed-effects, and random effects. The best model turns out to be a fixed-effect model. The result reports that from 2011 to 2020; 16 out of 72 nations have succeeded in experiencing positive economic growth, the value of GFCF was US$ 2,859.04 billion, and later grew by 19 percent to US$ 3,393.73 billion, the population tends to increase continuously year by year, and 2 out of 72 countries experienced export plus import exceed their GDP. Moreover, trade openness is positively associated with economic growth, with a coefficient of 3.81. Besides that, an increase in GFCF may boost economic growth by approximately 3.32 percent. On the contrary, one percent additional population significantly delivers around 25.46 percent negative economic growth. To sum up, the higher intensity of products or services sold and bought abroad may enhance the economic performance.

Determinants of Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries (2002-2019)

  • Khin Theingi Aung
    • SUVANNABHUMI
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.215-244
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the effect of macroeconomic indicators such as foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment, trade, inflation, unemployment, population, and governance indicators on economic growth and points out the GDP growth rate in 2002- 2019 among ASEAN countries. Data were compiled from the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and the World Bank, and the effect of variables on GDP was predicted using the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), fixed effects model (FEM), and random effects model (REM) methods. As a measure of growth, the GDP growth rate has been taken; FDI and domestic investment, trade, inflation, and governance indicators are positively connected and have an influence on economic growth in these ASEAN countries; domestic investment, population, and unemployment have a negative relationship to economic growth. The macroeconomic indicators and institutional stability of the nation have an effect on its economic growth. Comprehensive institutional stability and well-laid macroeconomic policies are required for growth to materialize.

Population Forecasting System Based on Growth Curve Models (성장곡선모형에 의한 인구예측 시스템)

  • 최종후;최봉호;양우성;김유진
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.197-215
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    • 2000
  • 이 논문에서는 선형·비선형 성장곡선모형의 종류와 특성을 살펴보고, 이들을 비교·검토하고, 모형선호기준 통계량에 입각하여 추정결과를 비교한다. 또한 최종사용자 환경을 위한 SAS/AF로 구현한 성장곡선모형에 의한 인구예측시스템을 소개한다.

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Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Asia: Comparative analysis of China, India, Vietnam and Korea (FDI가 아시아 국가의 경제성장에 미치는 영향: 중국·인도·베트남·한국 비교)

  • Wang, Jingjing;Choi, Chang Hwan
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2019
  • The study conducted an empirical analysis of the impact of FDI on economic growth in four Asian countries: China, India, Vietnam and Korea. With panel data for the 1990-2017 period, the research model was developed for foreign direct investment (FDI), export amount (EX), government expenditure (G), exchange rate (EXR), and labourable population (L). The panel analysis results show that the increase in FDI, exports, government expenditure, labourable population significantly increased economic growth. The comparison analysis for each country revealed that FDI, exports and government expenditure significantly affect economic growth in China, that exports and government expenditure significantly affect economic growth in Korea, that FDI significantly affected economic growth in Vietnam, and that the increase in the workforce contributed to economic development in India. This paper characterized the different factors of economic growth in the four Asian countries. These results suggest that setting economic priorities to suit the specific economic conditions of each country is a shortcut to more efficient economic growth.

Impacts of Population Aging on Real Interest Rates (인구 고령화가 실질 금리에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Myunghyun;Kwon, Ohik
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.133-166
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    • 2020
  • Since the mid-1990s, Korea has been aging rapidly. At the same time, real interest rates have declined sharply. This paper studies whether population aging has contributed to the real interest rate decrease in Korea. We first present empirical evidence that increases in life expectancy and the old-age-dependency ratio, and a fall in population growth, i.e., the population aging, decrease real interest rates. Then we calibrate a life-cycle model to capture the features of the old-age-dependency ratio and population growth in Korea, and show that population aging accounts for about one third of the fall in real interest rates between 1995 and 2018. Furthermore, according to simulation results, increased life expectancy is more important than decreased population growth in affecting the real interest rate decrease during the period.