• Title/Summary/Keyword: poisson process

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Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Models Considering Variations of the Future Volume in Urban Areas (신설 도시부 도로의 장래 교통량 변화를 반영한 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Soo-Beom;Hong, Da-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2005
  • The current traffic accident reduction procedure in economic feasibility study does not consider the characteristics of road and V/C ratio. For solving this problem, this paper suggests methods to be able to evaluate safety of each road in construction and improvement through developing accident Prediction model in reflecting V/C ratio Per road types and traffic characters. In this paper as primary process, model is made by tke object of urban roads. Most of all, factor effecting on accident relying on road types is selected. At this point, selecting criteria chooses data obtained from road planning procedure, traffic volume, existence or non-existence of median barrier, and the number of crossing point, of connecting road. and of traffic signals. As a result of analyzing between each factor and accident. all appear to have relatives at a significant level of statistics. In this research, models are classified as 4-categorized classes according to roads and V/C ratio and each of models draws accident predicting model through Poisson regression along with verifying real situation data. The results of verifying models come out relatively satisfactory estimation against real traffic data. In this paper, traffic accident prediction is possible caused by road's physical characters by developing accident predicting model per road types resulted in V/C ratio and this result is inferred to be used on predicting accident cost when road construction and improvement are performed. Because data using this paper are limited in only province of Jeollabuk-Do, this paper has a limitation of revealing standards of all regions (nation).

Modeling Three-dimensional Free Surface Flow around Thin Wall Incorporation Hydrodynamic Pressure on δ-coordinate (δ-좌표계에서 동수압 계산 수중벽체 인근흐름 수치모형실험)

  • Kim, Hyo-Seob;Yoo, Ho-Jun;Jin, Jae-Yul;Jang, Chang-Hwan;Lee, Jung-Su;Baek, Seung-Won
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.327-336
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    • 2014
  • Submerged thin walls are extreme case of submerged rectangular blocks, and could be used for many purposes in rivers or coastal zones, e.g. to tsunami. To understand flow characteristics including flow and pressure fields around a specific submerged thin wall a numerical model was applied which includes computation of hydrodynamic pressure on ${\sigma}$-coordinate. ${\sigma}$-coordinate has strong merits for simulation of subcritical flow over mild-sloped beds. On the other hand ${\sigma}$-coordinate is quite poor to treat sharp structures on the bed. There have been a few trials to incorporate dynamic pressure in ${\sigma}$-coordinate by some researchers. One of the previous approaches includes process of sloving the Poisson equation. However, the above method includes many high-order terms, and requires long cpu for simulation. Another method SOLA was developed by Hirt et al. for computation of dynamic pressure, but it was valid for straight grid system only. Previous SOLA was modified for ${\sigma}$-coordinate for the present purpose and was adopted in a model system, CST3D. Computed flow field shows reasonable behaviour including vorticity is much stronger than the upstream and downstream of the structure. The model was verified to laboratory experiments at a 2DV flume. Time-average flow vectors were measured by using one-dimensional electro-magnetic velocimeter. Computed flow field agrees well with the measured flow field within 10 % error from the speed point of view at 5 profiles. It is thought that the modified SOLA scheme is useful for ${\sigma}$-coordinate system.

Analysis of an M/G/1/K Queueing System with Queue-Length Dependent Service and Arrival Rates (시스템 내 고객 수에 따라 서비스율과 도착율을 조절하는 M/G/1/K 대기행렬의 분석)

  • Choi, Doo-Il;Lim, Dae-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2015
  • We analyze an M/G/1/K queueing system with queue-length dependent service and arrival rates. There are a single server and a buffer with finite capacity K including a customer in service. The customers are served by a first-come-first-service basis. We put two thresholds $L_1$ and $L_2$($${\geq_-}L_1$$ ) on the buffer. If the queue length at the service initiation epoch is less than the threshold $L_1$, the service time of customers follows $S_1$ with a mean of ${\mu}_1$ and the arrival of customers follows a Poisson process with a rate of ${\lambda}_1$. When the queue length at the service initiation epoch is equal to or greater than $L_1$ and less than $L_2$, the service time is changed to $S_2$ with a mean of $${\mu}_2{\geq_-}{\mu}_1$$. The arrival rate is still ${\lambda}_1$. Finally, if the queue length at the service initiation epoch is greater than $L_2$, the arrival rate of customers are also changed to a value of $${\lambda}_2({\leq_-}{\lambda}_1)$$ and the mean of the service times is ${\mu}_2$. By using the embedded Markov chain method, we derive queue length distribution at departure epochs. We also obtain the queue length distribution at an arbitrary time by the supplementary variable method. Finally, performance measures such as loss probability and mean waiting time are presented.

Analysis of Hydraulic Fracture Geometry by Considering Stress Shadow Effect during Multi-stage Hydraulic Fracturing in Shale Formation (셰일저류층의 다단계 수압파쇄에서 응력그림자 효과를 고려한 균열형태 분석)

  • Yoo, Jeong-min;Park, Hyemin;Wang, Jihoon;Sung, Wonmo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.20-29
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    • 2021
  • During multi-stage fracturing in a low permeable shale formation, stress interference occurs between the stages which is called the "stress shadow effect(SSE)". The effect may alter the fracture propagation direction and induce ununiform geometry. In this study, the stress shadow effect on the hydraulic fracture geometry and the well productivity were investigated by the commercial full-3D fracture model, GOHFER. In a homogeneous reservoir model, a multi-stage fracturing process was performed with or without the SSE. In addition, the fracturing was performed on two shale reservoirs with different geomechanical properties(Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio) to analyze the stress shadow effect. In the simulation results, the stress change caused by the fracture created in the previous stage switched the maximum/minimum horizontal stress and the lower productivity L-direction fracture was more dominating over the T-direction fracture. Since the Marcellus shale is more brittle than more dominating over the T-direction fracture. Since the Marcellus shale is more brittle than the relatively ductile Eagle Ford shale, the fracture width in the former was developed thicker, resulting in the larger fracture volume. And the Marcellus shale's Young's modulus is low, the stress effect is less significant than the Eagle Ford shale in the stage 2. The stress shadow effect strongly depends on not only the spacing between fractures but also the geomechanical properties. Therefore, the stress shadow effect needs to be taken into account for more accurate analysis of the fracture geometry and for more reliable prediction of the well productivity.

Efficient CT Image Denoising Using Deformable Convolutional AutoEncoder Model

  • Eon Seung, Seong;Seong Hyun, Han;Ji Hye, Heo;Dong Hoon, Lim
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2023
  • Noise generated during the acquisition and transmission of CT images acts as a factor that degrades image quality. Therefore, noise removal to solve this problem is an important preprocessing process in image processing. In this paper, we remove noise by using a deformable convolutional autoencoder (DeCAE) model in which deformable convolution operation is applied instead of the existing convolution operation in the convolutional autoencoder (CAE) model of deep learning. Here, the deformable convolution operation can extract features of an image in a more flexible area than the conventional convolution operation. The proposed DeCAE model has the same encoder-decoder structure as the existing CAE model, but the encoder is composed of deformable convolutional layers and the decoder is composed of conventional convolutional layers for efficient noise removal. To evaluate the performance of the DeCAE model proposed in this paper, experiments were conducted on CT images corrupted by various noises, that is, Gaussian noise, impulse noise, and Poisson noise. As a result of the performance experiment, the DeCAE model has more qualitative and quantitative measures than the traditional filters, that is, the Mean filter, Median filter, Bilateral filter and NL-means method, as well as the existing CAE models, that is, MAE (Mean Absolute Error), PSNR (Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio) and SSIM. (Structural Similarity Index Measure) showed excellent results.

A Study on the Prediction Method of Information Exchange Requirement in the Tactical Network (전술네트워크의 정보교환요구량 예측 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Pokki Park;Sangjun Park;Sunghwan Cho;Junseob Kim;Yongchul Kim
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2022
  • The Army, Navy, and Air Force are making various efforts to develop a weapon system that incorporates the 4th industrial revolution technology so that it can be used in multi-domain operations. In order to effectively demonstrate the integrated combat power through the weapon system to which the new technology is applied, it is necessary to establish a network environment in which each weapon system can transmit and receive information smoothly. For this, it is essential to analyze the Information Exchange Requirement(IER) of each weapon system, but many IER analysis studies did not sufficiently reflect the various considerations of the actual tactical network. Therefore, this study closely analyzes the research methods and results of the existing information exchange requirements analysis studies. In IER analysis, the size of the message itself, the size of the network protocol header, the transmission/reception structure of the tactical network, the information distribution process, and the message occurrence frequency. In order to be able to use it for future IER prediction, we present a technique for calculating the information exchange requirement as a probability distribution using the Poisson distribution and the probability generating function. In order to prove the validity of this technique, the results of the probability distribution calculation using the message list and network topology samples are compared with the simulation results using Network Simulator 2.

Study on the Methodology of the Microbial Risk Assessment in Food (식품중 미생물 위해성평가 방법론 연구)

  • 이효민;최시내;윤은경;한지연;김창민;김길생
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 1999
  • Recently, it is continuously rising to concern about the health risk being induced by microorganisms in food such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes. Various organizations and regulatory agencies including U.S.FPA, U.S.DA and FAO/WHO are preparing the methodology building to apply microbial quantitative risk assessment to risk-based food safety program. Microbial risks are primarily the result of single exposure and its health impacts are immediate and serious. Therefore, the methodology of risk assessment differs from that of chemical risk assessment. Microbial quantitative risk assessment consists of tow steps; hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification is accomplished by observing and defining the types of adverse health effects in humans associated with exposure to foodborne agents. Epidemiological evidence which links the various disease with the particular exposure route is an important component of this identification. Exposure assessment includes the quantification of microbial exposure regarding the dynamics of microbial growth in food processing, transport, packaging and specific time-temperature conditions at various points from animal production to consumption. Dose-response assessment is the process characterizing dose-response correlation between microbial exposure and disease incidence. Unlike chemical carcinogens, the dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens has not focused on animal models for extrapolation to humans. Risk characterization links the exposure assessment and dose-response assessment and involve uncertainty analysis. The methodology of microbial dose-response assessment is classified as nonthreshold and thresh-old approach. The nonthreshold model have assumption that one organism is capable of producing an infection if it arrives at an appropriate site and organism have independence. Recently, the Exponential, Beta-poission, Gompertz, and Gamma-weibull models are using as nonthreshold model. The Log-normal and Log-logistic models are using as threshold model. The threshold has the assumption that a toxicant is produce by interaction of organisms. In this study, it was reviewed detailed process including risk value using model parameter and microbial exposure dose. Also this study suggested model application methodology in field of exposure assessment using assumed food microbial data(NaCl, water activity, temperature, pH, etc.) and the commercially used Food MicroModel. We recognized that human volunteer data to the healthy man are preferred rather than epidemiological data fur obtaining exact dose-response data. But, the foreign agencies are studying the characterization of correlation between human and animal. For the comparison of differences to the population sensitivity: it must be executed domestic study such as the establishment of dose-response data to the Korean volunteer by each microbial and microbial exposure assessment in food.

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Optimization of Subtraction Brain Perfusion SPECT with Basal/Acetazolamide Consecutive Acquisition (기저/아세타졸아미드 부하 연속 촬영 뇌관류 SPECT 최적화)

  • Lee, Dong-Soo;Lee, Tae-Hoon;Kim, Kyeong-Min;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul;Koh, Chang-Soon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.330-338
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    • 1997
  • This study investigated the method to adjust acquisition time(a) and injection dose (i) to make the best basal and subtraction images in consecutive SPECT. Image quality was assumed to be mainly affected by signal to noise ratio(S/N). Basal image was subtracted from the second image consecutively acquired at the same position. We calculated S/N ratio in basal SPECT images($S_1/N_1$) and subtraction SPECT images(Ss/Ns) to find a(time) and i(dose) to maximize S/N of both images at the same time. From phantom images, we drew the relation of image counts and a(time) and i(dose) in our system using fanbeam-high-resolution collimated triple head SPECT. Noise by imaging process depended on Poisson distribution. We took maximum tolerable duration of consecutive acquisition as 30 minutes and maximum injectible dose as 1,850MBq(50 mCi)(sum of two injections) per study. Counts of second-acquired image($S_2$), counts($S_s$) and noise($N_s$) of subtraction SPECT were as follows. $C_1$ was the coefficient of measurement with our system. $$S_2=S_1{\cdot}(\frac{30-a}{a})+background{\cdot}(1-\frac{30-a}{a})+C_1{\cdot}(30-a){\cdot}{\epsilon}{\cdot}(50-i)$$ $$Ss=S_2-\{S_1{\cdot}(\frac{30-a}{a})+background{\cdot}(1-\frac{(30-a)}{a})\}$$ $$Ns={\sqrt{N_2^2+N_1^2{\cdot}\frac{(30-a)^2}{a^2}}={\sqrt{S_2+S_1{\cdot}\frac{(30-a)^2}{a^2}}$$ In case of rest/acetazolamide study, effect(${\epsilon}$) of acetazolamide to increase global brain uptake of Tc-99m-HMPAO could be 1.5 or less. Varying ${\epsilon}$ from 1 to 1.5, a(time) and i(dose) pair to maximize both $S_1/N_l$ and Ss/Ns was determined. 15 mCi/17 min and 35mCi/13min was the best a(time) and i(dose) pair for rest/acetazolamide study(when ${\epsilon}$ were 1.2) and came to be used for our clinical routine after this study. We developed simple method to maximize S/N ratios of basal and subtraction SPECT from consecutive acquisition. This method could be applied to ECD/HMPAO and brain activation studies as well as rest/acetazolamide studies.

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