• 제목/요약/키워드: physical uncertainty

검색결과 263건 처리시간 0.026초

도입주체에 따른 인터넷경로의 도입효과 (The Impact of the Internet Channel Introduction Depending on the Ownership of the Internet Channel)

  • 유원상
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2009
  • The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced in May 2008 that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for 2006 reached $ 107 billion, up from $ 87 billion in 2005 - an increase of 22 percent. From 2001 to 2006, retail e-sales increased at an average annual growth rate of 25.4 percent. The explosive growth of E-Commerce has caused profound changes in marketing channel relationships and structures in many industries. Despite the great potential implications for both academicians and practitioners, there still exists a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of the Internet channel introduction on distribution channel management. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the ownership of the new Internet channel affects the existing channel members and consumers. To explore the above research questions, this study conducts well-controlled mathematical experiments to isolate the impact of the Internet channel by comparing before and after the Internet channel entry. The model consists of a monopolist manufacturer selling its product through a channel system including one independent physical store before the entry of an Internet store. The addition of the Internet store to this channel system results in a mixed channel comprised of two different types of channels. The new Internet store can be launched by the independent physical store such as Bestbuy. In this case, the physical retailer coordinates the two types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the two stores. The Internet store also can be introduced by an independent Internet retailer such as Amazon. In this case, a retail level competition occurs between the two types of stores. Although the manufacturer sells only one product, consumers view each product-outlet pair as a unique offering. Thus, the introduction of the Internet channel provides two product offerings for consumers. The channel structures analyzed in this study are illustrated in Fig.1. It is assumed that the manufacturer plays as a Stackelberg leader maximizing its own profits with the foresight of the independent retailer's optimal responses as typically assumed in previous analytical channel studies. As a Stackelberg follower, the independent physical retailer or independent Internet retailer maximizes its own profits, conditional on the manufacturer's wholesale price. The price competition between two the independent retailers is assumed to be a Bertrand Nash game. For simplicity, the marginal cost is set at zero, as typically assumed in this type of study. In order to explore the research questions above, this study develops a game theoretic model that possesses the following three key characteristics. First, the model explicitly captures the fact that an Internet channel and a physical store exist in two independent dimensions (one in physical space and the other in cyber space). This enables this model to demonstrate that the effect of adding an Internet store is different from that of adding another physical store. Second, the model reflects the fact that consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences for using a physical store and for using an Internet channel. Third, the model captures the vertical strategic interactions between an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer, making it possible to analyze the channel structure issues discussed in this paper. Although numerous previous models capture this vertical dimension of marketing channels, none simultaneously incorporates the three characteristics reflected in this model. The analysis results are summarized in Table 1. When the new Internet channel is introduced by the existing physical retailer and the retailer coordinates both types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the both stores, retail prices increase due to a combination of the coordination of the retail prices and the wider market coverage. The quantity sold does not significantly increase despite the wider market coverage, because the excessively high retail prices alleviate the market coverage effect to a degree. Interestingly, the coordinated total retail profits are lower than the combined retail profits of two competing independent retailers. This implies that when a physical retailer opens an Internet channel, the retailers could be better off managing the two channels separately rather than coordinating them, unless they have the foresight of the manufacturer's pricing behavior. It is also found that the introduction of an Internet channel affects the power balance of the channel. The retail competition is strong when an independent Internet store joins a channel with an independent physical retailer. This implies that each retailer in this structure has weak channel power. Due to intense retail competition, the manufacturer uses its channel power to increase its wholesale price to extract more profits from the total channel profit. However, the retailers cannot increase retail prices accordingly because of the intense retail level competition, leading to lower channel power. In this case, consumer welfare increases due to the wider market coverage and lower retail prices caused by the retail competition. The model employed for this study is not designed to capture all the characteristics of the Internet channel. The theoretical model in this study can also be applied for any stores that are not geographically constrained such as TV home shopping or catalog sales via mail. The reasons the model in this study is names as "Internet" are as follows: first, the most representative example of the stores that are not geographically constrained is the Internet. Second, catalog sales usually determine the target markets using the pre-specified mailing lists. In this aspect, the model used in this study is closer to the Internet than catalog sales. However, it would be a desirable future research direction to mathematically and theoretically distinguish the core differences among the stores that are not geographically constrained. The model is simplified by a set of assumptions to obtain mathematical traceability. First, this study assumes the price is the only strategic tool for competition. In the real world, however, various marketing variables can be used for competition. Therefore, a more realistic model can be designed if a model incorporates other various marketing variables such as service levels or operation costs. Second, this study assumes the market with one monopoly manufacturer. Therefore, the results from this study should be carefully interpreted considering this limitation. Future research could extend this limitation by introducing manufacturer level competition. Finally, some of the results are drawn from the assumption that the monopoly manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader. Although this is a standard assumption among game theoretic studies of this kind, we could gain deeper understanding and generalize our findings beyond this assumption if the model is analyzed by different game rules.

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조직의 자원을 고려한 RFID 도입단계별 영향요인에 관한 실증연구 (An Empirical Study on the Factors Affecting RFID Adoption Stage with Organizational Resources)

  • 장성희;이동만
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.125-150
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    • 2009
  • RFID(Radio Frequency IDentification) is a wireless frequency of recognition technology that can be used to recognize, trace, and identify people, things, and animals using radio frequency(RF). RFID will bring about many changes in manufacturing and distributions, among other areas. In accordance with the increasing importance of RFID techniques, great advancement has been made in RFID studies. Initially, the RFID research started as a research literature or case study. Recently, empirical research has floated on the surface for announcement. But most of the existing researches on RFID adoption have been restricted to a dichotomous measure of 'adoption vs. non-adoption' or adoption intention. In short, RFID research is still at an initial stage, mainly focusing on the research of the RFID performance, integration, and its usage has been considered dismissive. The purpose of this study is to investigate which factors are important for the RFID adoption and implementation with organizational resources. In this study, the organizational resources are classified into either finance resources or IT knowledge resources. A research model and four hypotheses are set up to identify the relationships among these variables based on the investigations of such theories as technological innovations, adoption stage, and organizational resources. In order to conduct this study, a survey was carried out from September 27, 2008 until October 23, 2008. The questionnaire was completed by 143 managers and workers from physical distribution and manufacturing companies related to the RFID in South Korea. 37 out of 180 surveys, which turned out unfit for the study, were discarded and the remaining 143(adoption stage 89, implementation stage 54) were used for the empirical study. The statistics were analyzed using Excel 2003 and SPSS 12.0. The results of the analysis are as follows. First, the adoption stage shows that perceived benefits, standardization, perceived cost savings, environmental uncertainty, and pressures from rival firms have significant effects on the intent of the RFID adoption. Further, the implementation stage shows that perceived benefits, standardization, environmental uncertainty, pressures from rival firms, inter-organizational cooperation, and inter-organizational trust have significant effects on the extent of the RFID use. In contrast, inter-organizational cooperation and inter-organizational trust did not show much impact on the intent of RFID adoption while perceived cost savings did not significantly affect the extent of RFID use. Second, in the adoption stage, financial issues had adverse effect on both inter-organizational cooperation and the intent against the RFID adoption. IT knowledge resources also had a deterring effect on both perceived cost savings and the extent of the RFID adoption. Third, in the implementation stage, finance resources had a moderate effect on environmental uncertainty and extent of RFID use while IT knowledge resources had also a moderate effect on perceived cost savings and the extent of the RFID use. Limitations and future research issues can be summarized as follows. First, it is difficult to say that the sample is large enough to be representative of the population. Second, because the sample of this study was conducted among manufacturers only, it may be limited in analyzing fully the effect on the industry as a whole. Third, in consideration of the fact that the organizational resources in the RFID study require a great deal of researches, this research may deem insufficient to fulfill the purpose that it initially set out to achieve. Future studies using performance research are, therefore, needed to help better understand the organizational level of the RFID adoption and implementation.

기술위험 관리와 위험갈등 : 휴대전화 전자파의 인체유해성 논란 (Managing Technological Risk and Risk Conflict : Public Debates on Health Risks of Mobile Phones EMF)

  • 정병걸
    • 과학기술학연구
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.97-129
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    • 2008
  • 새로운 기술의 개발과 확산으로 인해 기술 위험의 가능성과 영향이 크게 증가하고 있다. 불확실성을 기본적 속성으로 하는 위험의 특성상 지식의 불확실성 해소는 기술 위험관리의 핵심적 요소라고 할 수 있다. 지식의 불확실성이 기술위험 갈등의 중요한 원인이 되기 때문이다. 그러나 지식 축적만으로 기술위험 갈등이 해소되는 것은 아니다. 기술위험의 성격에 따라서는 기술위험에 대한 합의의 부족이 갈등의 주원인이 될 수 있기 때문이다. 휴대전화 전자파의 인체 유해성 논란은 대표적인 예라고 할 수 있다. 휴대전화 전자파의 인체 유해성 여부에 대해서는 명확한 결론을 내릴 수는 없지만 관련 지식이 꾸준히 축적되어 왔기 때문에 지식의 불확실성은 높지 않다. 산업계는 유해성을 입증할만한 뚜렷한 증거가 없기 때문에 법적 규제는 불필요하다는 입장인 반면 시민단체들은 유해 가능성이 입증되지 않았지만 가능성은 여전히 남아있기 때문에 사전 예방적 차원의 규제가 필요하다는 입장을 취하고 있다. 우리나라의 경우 시민단체의 지속적인 문제제기에 따라 정부는 인체흡수율(SAR) 기준을 설정하고 인체 흡수율 정보를 공개토록 하고 있다. 그러나 시민단체의 입장에서 보면 인체 흡수율 기준은 전신이 아닌 얼굴 부위에만 적용되는 제한적 기준이며, 인체 흡수율 정보도 자율적으로 공개토록 하고 있다는 점에서 완화된 형식적 규제라고 할 수 있다. 예방적 규제를 지지하는 시민단체와 산업계 보호의 관점에서 완화된 규제를 유지하려는 정부간에는 여전히 큰 인식 차이가 존재한다. 휴대전화 전자파의 기술 위험은 기술의 친숙성으로 인해 심각한 위험으로 받아들여지지 않고 있지만 심각한 갈등과 재난을 초래할 가능성도 있다. 따라서 이러한 문제를 예방하기 위해서는 안전의 목표를 경제적 목표와 통합하는 정책 통합과 위험 커뮤니케이션의 촉진을 통해 갈등 가능성과 재난의 발생의 소지를 차단하는 기술위험 관리가 필요하다.

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망간분기기 크로싱부 인근의 진동 발생수준 예측 (Prediction of the Intensity of Vibration Around the Crossing Part of Manganese Turnout)

  • 엄기영
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2008
  • 철도운행에 있어 분기기는 열차를 주행선로에서 이웃한 선로로 이동시키는 매우 중요한 역할을 수행하는 장치이다. 분기기는 레일 궤도설비 중 유일한 가동부로 구조도 복잡하고 천이과정 중 결선부에서 차륜, 레일간의 급격한 운동변화가 필연적으로 발생되어 안전성 문제와 반복되는 통과열차의 충격하중에 의한 진동 문제가 항상 거론되고 있다. 분기기의 진동은 레일과 궤도하부 노반의 상태, 그리고 지반의 물성치 등에 따른 변수가 많으므로 해석모델로 신뢰성있는 정량적인 결과를 도출하는 것은 매우 어려운 일이다. 따라서 대부분의 분기기진동에 관한 문제는 순수 해석적인 기법보다는 실험과 경험에 기초한 방법을 많이 적용하고 있다. 분기기의 진동 예측은 불확실성이 높은 인자들에 대해서 실험 및 측정값을 병행함으로써 예측정확성을 높일 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 기존선구 망간 분기기 크로싱부에서 발생하는 진동 측정치 결과를 열차 종류별, 거리별, 분기기별로 비교 분석하고 향후 틸팅열차 증속시 망간 분기기 크로싱부에서 발생하는 진동 발생 수준을 예측 평가하였다. 예측에 사용된 지반의 동적 거동은 선형 한계에 있다고 가정하였다.

LadyGaGa의 패션스타일에 나타난 알레고리 연구(제2보) - 뮤직비디오를 중심으로 - (A Study on the Allegory in LadyGaGa's Fashion Style(Part 2) - Focused on Music Video -)

  • 김향자;권미정
    • 한국의류산업학회지
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.701-712
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    • 2012
  • This study examines the various expressions and immanent value of fashion and beauty style based on Craig Owens's Allegory theory. I analyzed four application elements of Borrow, Site Specificity, Accumulation of Strategy, and Hybridization in? Ladygaga's Music Videos. The results are as follows. 'Borrow' presents a kitsch style and playful Pop-art style, transformation of gender from Mini Mouse body suit, telephone headpiece, and can hair. 'Site specificity' presents the temporarity of fashion material through rebirth, aging, natural extinction from the chain over the black jump suit, crime scene tape, and skull-face makeup with masculine style. 'Accumulation of strategy' presents a futuristic chic fashion style from a layered style, retrospective fashion, repetition and duplication in Music Videos. It shows the physical beauty of an Asian warrior style in Poker Face. 'Hybridization' present Cyborg feminism and 'Will of Power' from iPOD LCD glasses and Pyro-Bra. The Pyro-Bra represents how the female body can be used as a weapon in the outfits of Lady Gaga. In addition, Immanent value is as follows. Textual interaction with high art is accomplished through a combination of contemporary social and cultural significance to understand the cultural code and to extend the value. Combined with high culture, popular music genre is accomplished through musical appreciation by a woman in fashion styling and sensual pleasures of the body as a tool to express a sublime advantage. Fashion style is accomplished by overcoming a self-transcendent body image representation. The way in which mutual coupling dismantling, destruction, and uncertainty is to re-launch the static, with a pluralistic context of Textuality.

기후는 이산화탄소 증가에 얼마나 민감한가? (How Sensitive is the Earth Climate to a Runaway Carbon Dioxide?)

  • 최용상
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.239-247
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    • 2011
  • 국제기후변화협약 및 정부의 저탄소 정책은 기본적으로 과학이 제시한 이산화탄소 증가에 대한 기후민감도에 근거해야 한다. 그러나 기후민감도의 추정치는 현재까지 연구 단위별로 차이가 커서, 이에 대한 과학적 배경, 한계, 전망을 고찰할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 지금까지의 기후민감도에 대한 국내외 연구 결과를 객관적으로 종합하여 검토한다. 기후민감도를 결정하는 것은 대기와 지면의 각종 물리과정에 의한 기후피드백 작용이며, 이 중 특히 태양 단파복사량을 조절하는 구름, 해빙과 관련된 물리과정은 불확실성이 가장 커서, 부정확한 민감도 추정을 야기하는 것으로 보인다. 이 때문에, 최근 인공위성 자료를 이용하여 추정한 기후민감도는 기후모델들이 갖는 범위(대기 중 이산화탄소 2배 증가당 지구평균기온 2-5 K 증가)에 들거나, 그보다 훨씬 작은 값을 갖는다.

An A2CL Algorithm based on Information Optimization Strategy for MMRS

  • Dong, Qianhui;Li, Yibing;Sun, Qian;Tian, Yuan
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.1603-1623
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    • 2020
  • Multiple Mobile Robots System (MMRS) has shown many attractive features in lots of real-world applications that motivate their rapid and wide diffusion. In MMRS, the Cooperative Localization (CL) is the basis and premise of its high-performance task. However, the statistical characteristics of the system noise should be already known in traditional CL algorithms, which is difficult to satisfy in actual MMRS because of the numerous of disturbances form the complex external environment. So the CL accuracy will be reduced. To solve this problem, an improved Adaptive Active Cooperative Localization (A2CL) algorithm based on information optimization strategy for MMRS is proposed in this manuscript. In this manuscript, an adaptive information fusion algorithm based on the variance component estimation under Extended Kalman filter (VCEKF) method for MMRS is introduced firstly to enhance the robustness and accuracy of information fusion by estimating the covariance matrix of the system noise or observation noise in real time. Besides, to decrease the effect of observation uncertainty on CL accuracy further, an observation optimization strategy based on information theory, the Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy, is used here to maximize the information amount from observations. And semi-physical simulation experiments were carried out to verity the A2CL algorithm's performance finally. Results proved that the presented A2CL algorithm based on information optimization strategy for MMRS cannot only enhance the CL accuracy effectively but also have good robustness.

적용 기법에 따른 강우침식인자 산정 결과의 시공간적 불확실성 (Spatiotemporal Uncertainty of Rainfall Erosivity Factor Estimated Using Different Methodologies)

  • 황세운;김동현;신상민;유승환
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제58권6호
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    • pp.55-69
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    • 2016
  • RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) is the empirical formular widely used to estimate rates of soil erosion caused by rainfall and associated overland flow. Among the factors considered in RUSLE, rainfall erosivity factor (R factor) is the major one derived by rainfall intensity and characteristics of rainfall event. There has been developed various methods to estimate R factor, such as energy based methods considering physical schemes of soil erosion and simple methods using the empirical relationship between soil erosion and annual total rainfall. This study is aimed to quantitatively evaluate the variation among the R factors estimated using different methods for South Korea. Station based observation (minutely rainfall data) were collected for 72 stations to investigate the characteristics of rainfall events over the country and similarity and differentness of R factors calculated by each method were compared in various ways. As results use of simple methods generally provided greater R factors comparing to those for energy based methods by 76 % on average and also overestimated the range of factors using different equations. The variation coefficient of annual R factors was calculated as 0.27 on average and the results significantly varied by the stations. Additionally the study demonstrated the rank of methods that would provide exclusive results comparing to others for each station. As it is difficult to find universal way to estimate R factors for specific regions, the efforts to validate and integrate various methods are required to improve the applicability and accuracy of soil erosion estimation.

Network human-robot interface at service level

  • Nguyen, To Dong;Oh, Sang-Rok;You, Bum-Jae
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.1938-1943
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    • 2005
  • Network human-robot interface is an important research topic. In home application, users access the robotic system directly via voice, gestures or through the network. Users explore a system by using the services provided by this system and to some extend users are enable to participate in a service as partners. A service may be provided by a robot, a group of robots or robots and other network connected systems (distributed sensors, information systems, etc). All these services are done in the network environment, where uncertainty such as the unstable network connection, the availability of the partners in a service, exists. Moreover, these services are controlled by several users, accessing at different time by different methods. Our research aimed at solving this problem to provide a high available level, flexible coordination system. In this paper, a multi-agent framework is proposed. This framework is validated by using our new concept of slave agents, a responsive multi-agent environment, a virtual directory facilitator (VDF), and a task allocation system using contract net protocol. Our system uses a mixed model between distributed and centralized model. It uses a centralized agent management system (AMS) to control the overall system. However, the partners and users may be distributed agents connected to the center through agent communication or centralized at the AMS container using the slave agents to represent the physical agents. The system is able to determine the task allocation for a group of robot working as a team to provide a service. A number of experiments have been conducted successfully in our lab environment using Issac robot, a PDA for user agent and a wireless network system, operated under our multi agent framework control. The experiments show that this framework works well and provides some advantages to existing systems.

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Intra-night optical variability of AGN in COSMOS field

  • Kim, Joonho;Karouzos, Marios;Im, Myungshin;Kim, Dohyeong;Jun, Hyunsung;Lee, Joon Hyeop;Pallerola, Mar Mezcua
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제41권2호
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    • pp.64.2-64.2
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    • 2016
  • Optical variability is one way to probe the nature of the central engine of AGN at smaller linear scales and previous studies have shown that optical variability is more prevalent at longer timescales and at shorter wavelengths. Especially, intra-night variability can be explained through the damped random walk model but small samples and inhomogeneous data have made constraining this model hard. To understand the properties and physical mechanism of optical variability, we are performing the KMTNet Active Nuclei Variability Survey (KANVaS). Test data of KMTNet in the COSMOS field was obtained over 2 separate nights during 2015, in B, V, R, and I bands. Each night was composed of 5 and 9 epochs with ~30 min cadence. To find AGN in the COSMOS field, we applied multi-wavelength selection methods. Different selection methods means we are looking different region in unification model of AGN, and 100~120, 400~500, 50~100 number of AGN are detected in X-ray, mid-infrared, and radio selection of AGN, respectively. We performed image convolution to reflect seeing fluctuation, then differential photometry between the selected AGN and nearby stars to achieve photometric uncertainty ~0.01mag. We employed one of the standard time-series analysis tools to identify variable AGN, chi-square test. Preliminarily results indicate that intra-night variability is found for X-ray selected, Type1 AGN are 23.6%, 26.4%, 21.3% and 20.7% in the B, V, R, and I band, respectively. The majority of the identified variable AGN are classified as Type 1 AGN, with only a handful of Type 2 AGN showing evidence for variability. The work done so far confirms that there are type and wavelength dependence of intra-night optical variability of AGN.

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