• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.171-183
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• 2012

In the development of technologies, the exhibition industry has received much attention from governments and companies as an important way of marketing activities. Also, the exhibitors have considered the exhibition as new channels of marketing activities. However, the growing size of exhibitions for net square feet and the number of visitors naturally creates the competitive environment for them. Therefore, to make use of the effective marketing tools in these environments, they have planned and implemented many promotion technics. Especially, through smart environment which makes them provide real-time information for visitors, they can implement various kinds of promotion. However, promotions ignoring visitors' various needs and preferences can lose the original purposes and functions of them. That is, as indiscriminate promotions make visitors feel like spam, they can't achieve their purposes. Therefore, they need an approach using STP strategy which segments visitors through right evidences (Segmentation), selects the target visitors (Targeting), and give proper services to them (Positioning). For using STP Strategy in the smart exhibition environment, we consider these characteristics of it. First, an exhibition is defined as market events of a specific duration, which are held at intervals. According to this, exhibitors who plan some promotions should different events and promotions in each exhibition. Therefore, when they adopt traditional STP strategies, a system can provide services using insufficient information and of existing visitors, and should guarantee the performance of it. Second, to segment automatically, cluster analysis which is generally used as data mining technology can be adopted. In the smart exhibition environment, information of visitors can be acquired in real-time. At the same time, services using this information should be also provided in real-time. However, many clustering algorithms have scalability problem which they hardly work on a large database and require for domain knowledge to determine input parameters. Therefore, through selecting a suitable methodology and fitting, it should provide real-time services. Finally, it is needed to make use of data in the smart exhibition environment. As there are useful data such as booth visit records and participation records for events, the STP strategy for the smart exhibition is based on not only demographical segmentation but also behavioral segmentation. Therefore, in this study, we analyze a case of the promotion methodology which exhibitors can provide a differentiated service to segmented visitors in the smart exhibition environment. First, considering characteristics of the smart exhibition environment, we draw evidences of segmentation and fit the clustering methodology for providing real-time services. There are many studies for classify visitors, but we adopt a segmentation methodology based on visitors' behavioral traits. Through the direct observation, Veron and Levasseur classify visitors into four groups to liken visitors' traits to animals (Butterfly, fish, grasshopper, and ant). Especially, because variables of their classification like the number of visits and the average time of a visit can estimate in the smart exhibition environment, it can provide theoretical and practical background for our system. Next, we construct a pilot system which automatically selects suitable visitors along the objectives of promotions and instantly provide promotion messages to them. That is, based on the segmentation of our methodology, our system automatically selects suitable visitors along the characteristics of promotions. We adopt this system to real exhibition environment, and analyze data from results of adaptation. As a result, as we classify visitors into four types through their behavioral pattern in the exhibition, we provide some insights for researchers who build the smart exhibition environment and can gain promotion strategies fitting each cluster. First, visitors of ANT type show high response rate for promotion messages except experience promotion. So they are fascinated by actual profits in exhibition area, and dislike promotions requiring a long time. Contrastively, visitors of GRASSHOPPER type show high response rate only for experience promotion. Second, visitors of FISH type appear favors to coupon and contents promotions. That is, although they don't look in detail, they prefer to obtain further information such as brochure. Especially, exhibitors that want to give much information for limited time should give attention to visitors of this type. Consequently, these promotion strategies are expected to give exhibitors some insights when they plan and organize their activities, and grow the performance of them.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.202-208
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• 2005

This study was conducted to examine the food habits, knowledge of nutrition and actual conditions of food ingestion of adolescent middle school students according to questionnaire answers. Questionnaires were completed by 524 students, divided into a healthy group (n=289) and an unhealthy group (n=235) according to clinical signs. Further questions were asked of the two groups in the areas of food habits, knowledge of nutrition and nutritional attitude. The results were as follows: Mean age of all subjects was 14, heights for male and female students were 162.0 em, and 157.2 cm, weights were 53.4 kg, and 49.4, respectively. Heights and weights of male students were greater than those of female students. The body mass index (BMI) for male and female students was 20.3 kg/$m^2$ and 20.0 kg/$m^2$, respectively, and all data were within normal ranges. There were no significant differences in mean age, height, weight, and BMI between the healthy and unhealthy groups. There was no significant difference in body image recognition between the two groups, although the ratio of dissatisfaction with their own body shape was significantly higher in the female unhealthy group (46.1%), than in the female healthy group (33.0%) (p<0.05). In the area of the struggle to control body weight during the previous year, the female unhealthy group (59.4%) was higher than the female healthy group (38.4%) (p<0.01). There was no significant difference in the scores between the two groups in the areas of knowledge of nutrition and the nutritional attitude. Meal frequency and meal patterns were showed that having breakfast less than 4x/week was significantly higher in the female unhealthy group (44.0%), than in the female healthy group (30.7%) (p<0.01). Meal frequency for suppers<4x/week showed that the female unhealthy group (18.8%) was also higher than the female healthy group (10.7%). Therefore, the unhealthy group exhibited a higher pattern of missing both breakfast and supper. The male unhealthy group (16.7%) dined out more frequently than the male healthy group (12.3%) (p<0.01), and female unhealthy group also indulged in snacking significantly more frequently than the female healthy group. The unhealthy group also ate only 1 item for meals more frequently than the healthy group and no significant difference. The conclusion of this study is that adolescent Korean middle school students, who showed a higher incidence of clinical symptoms, representing an unhealthy status, missed breakfast and supper, and dined out and indulged in snacking more frequently. Their quality of breakfast and satisfaction of body image were also lower than the healthy group. These results indicated that there is a high correlation between a Korean adolescent's health status, food habits and body image satisfaction. It is recommended that a more intense program of nutritional education and monitoring be introduce into the current Korean middle-school system in order to optimally support and maximize the health potential of the current population of Korean student.

• Journal of Acupuncture Research
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.187-208
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• 2000

By the activation of ovary hormone, many morphological changes occur in the epithelial cell lines and muscle cells in rat uterus. These two cells in uterus are important to the implantation of embryo, maintaining pregnancy and starting parturition. One important change associated with the morphological change of these two cells in uterus is the change on prostaglandin(PG) metabolism. Its presence and synthesis in endometriurn and myometrium in uterus affects estrous cycle and the start of embryo implantation in uterus. It also performs as an important modulator in parturition. So the abnormally weak expression of PG causes difficulty during labor and over-expression causes pre-term labor. PG biosynthesis starts from either free or liberated arachidonic acids from membrane phospholipid by phospholipase. Such arachidonic acids are converted into PG catalyzed by Cyclooxygenase. Under normal physiological condition, Cyclooxygenase-1(COX-1) having 602 units of amino acids controls the synthesis of PG. It acts as a local hormone regulating vasomodulation of blood flow, flexible muscle movement, increasing the blood permeability and contributing the protective role in preserving integrity of the stomach lining and Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is induced by the inflammation, pregnancy and increased its expression until parturition. Lipid metabolite like PG is located in uterine and expression of COX-2 increased with pregnancy. Increased expression of COX proteins in epithelial cells and myometrial cells are told to increase the muscle contractility in uterus but decreased right after the labor in rat. It is a good sign indicating that COX proteins are deeply related to the start of labor. Currently, Several studies report the use of PG and COX-2 inhibitor as medication for controlled abortion or to prevent pre-term labor but they entail various side-effects. Our study proposed to suggest use of acupuncture as an another mediator to control abortion or pre-term labor without causing unnecessary side-effects by those medicines. Two acupuncture sites, LI-4 & SP-6 were selected due to their known efficacy. From the immunohistochemical staining of COX-2, normal expression of COX-2 protein in nonpregnant SD rat's uterus revealed that COX-2 protein was primarily detected in the lumina epithelial lining and in the epithelial cell lining contacting the stromal cells. High resolution optical microscopic scanning revealed distinguishable staining in the myometrial mucosa. LI-4 acupuncture administered nonpregnant rat's uterus showed strong expression for COX-2 in endometrium contacted with lumina epithelial lining of rat uterus and in myometrial mucosa. Stromal cells showed more staining than untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus and stronger staining in stromal cells contacting myometrial layer compared to untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus. SP-6 acupuncture administered nonpregnant rat's uterus showed weak expression for COX-2 in myometrial layers and stromal cells but no staining was visible in lumina epitheliai and glandular epithelial cells. Few stromal cells and myometrial mucosa were positively stained for COX-2. Pregnant SD rat's uterus was also immunostained for COX-2 expression after 18 days of pregnancy. Unlike to untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus, luminal epithelial cells were not positively stained for COX-2 but stronger staining for COX-2 was revealed in stromal cells. LI-4 acupunctured SD rat's uterus had very strong expression of COX-2 in luminal epithelial lining. Few stromal cells showed stronger positive COX-2 staining and myometrial layers also showed more expression than untreated pregnant rat. SP-6 acupuncture administered pregnant SD rat's uterus showed positive expression of COX-2 in epithelial cells of luminal mucosa layer but weaker than that of LI-4 acupuncture treatment's case. However, strong positive staining was revealed in stromal mucosa and myometrial layers. Virgin SD rat's uterus motility index during LI-4 acupuncture was 66.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.0197) compared to its motility before the acupuncture treatment but the motility index was slighdy elevated up to 79.58 % (Prob〉T = 0.1175) after the acupuncture. During the SP-6 acupuncture treatment for 30 minutes, uterus motility index was 90.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.1832) showing lesser decrement but consequently reached similar motility index decreasal to 79.95 % (Prob〉T = 0.0215) after the acupuncture treatment as LI-4 showed. LI-4 acupuncture tend to be a quick treatment to reducing the uterus motility in a virgin rat but eventually both two acupuncture administration created very similar reduction of uterus motility seeing the index after the both acupunctures. The uterus movement monitored during the LI-4 acupuncture administered for 30 minutes, Pregnant SD rat showed decreased motility down to 77.90 % (Prob〉 T = 0.0076) compared to uterus motility before the acupuncture and it continuously decreased down to 71.81 %(Prob〉T = 0.0214) after the removal of needle. The statistical analysis using paired t-test showed significance difference for both two motility indexs at =0.05. SP-6 acupuncture administered to pregnant SD rat also had similar pattern of decreasing uterus motility index down to 74.70 % (Prob〉T = 0.1730) during the initial 30 minutes acupuncture administration and it was continuously lowered to 71.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.0155) after the acupuncture. The paired t-test resuit for SP-6 suggest prompt response of uterus motility index to the SP-6 acupuncture treatment but consequently reached same level of inducing the motility reduction as LI-4 at =0.05 level.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.81-103
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• 2001

This study was conducted to identify the health behavior of middle-aged rural women and the factors that have an effect on them. For the purpose of the study, examinations were made from March 01, 2000 to March 31, 2000 with 468 women aged 40 to 64 out of 2,263 people whom four Primary Health Posts located in Yechon County, Kyongsangbuk-do Province, are in charge of. The results are summarized as follows. 17.5% of the subjects responded that the extent of their own interest in health were high. For the subjects having a chronic disease, a nuclear family, or an open family atmosphere, the extent appeared to be relatively higher, 15.4% responded that the extent of family's interest in their health was high. It was significantly high if the extent of education was high or if the family atmosphere was open. The subjects' average score of self-efficacy was 49.9 out of 68. The score significantly varied depending on religion, education, living together with a spouse or not, and the extent of the subjects' interest in health. The family pattern, family atmosphere, family's interest in the subjects' health were the variables that significantly influenced the self-efficacy. The average score of family function was 5.51 out of 10. The score significantly varies depending on age, education, occupation, financial status, the extent of the subjects' own interest in health, family atmosphere and family's interest in the subjects' health. In the practice of health behavior, the nonsmoking rate was 89.5%, the nondrinking rate 63.0%, the rate of exercising practice 6.6%, the rate of normal sleeping 75.6%, the rate of eating breakfast 91.7%, the rate of not eating between meals 18.2%, and the standard BMI 69.2%. In the frequency of health behavior, the subjects with the Breslow Index of 0-3, 4-5 and 6-7 accounted for 4.5%, 53.2%, and 42.3%, respectively. The average score of health behavior was 5.20 out of 7, in which significant variables were living together with a spouse or not, financial status, absence or presence of a chronic disease, and family atmosphere. In the multiple regression analysis with health behavior as a dependent variable, it was shown that living together with a spouse or not, financial status, and family atmosphere were the significantly substantial variables. The subjects were found to do health behavior well if they had not a spouse, a good financial status, or an open family atmosphere. They were also found to do health behavior well if the extent of self-efficacy was high or if the extent of family function was low, but these were not the significant variables. It is needed to develop a standard measuring tool fit for our environment and perform more studies in the future because the measuring tool used in this study was a tool developed in a foreign county. In promoting community health projects, it is required not to provide all community people with a uniform health program but to identify the health behavior of individuals and other variables such as living together with a spouse or not, financial status and family atmosphere before arranging for a proper health program.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.592-600
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• 1997

Background : The level of imposed work of breathing (WOB) is important for patient-ventilator synchrony and during weaning from mechanical ventilation. Triggering methods and the sensitivity of demand system are important determining factors of the imposed WOB. Flow triggering method is available on several modern ventilator and is believed to impose less work to a patient-triggered breath than pressure triggering method. We intended to compare the level of imposed WOB on two different methods of triggering and also at different levels of sensitivities on each triggering method (0.7 L/min vs 2.0 L/min on flow triggering ; $-1\;cmH_2O$ vs $-2cm\;H_2O$ on pressure triggering). Methods : The subjects were 12 patients ($64.8{\pm}4.2\;yrs$) on mechanical ventilation and were stable in respiratory pattern on CPAP $3\;cmH_2O$. Four different triggering sensitivities were applied at random order. For determination of imposed WOB, tracheal end pressure was measured through the monitoring lumen of Hi-Lo Jet tracheal tube (Mallincrodt, New York, USA) using pneumotachograph/pressure transducer (CP-100 pulmonary monitor, Bicore, Irvine, CA, USA). Other data of respiratory mechanics were also obtained by CP-100 pulmonary monitor. Results : The imposed WOB was decreased by 37.5% during 0.7 L/min on flow triggering compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering and also decreased by 14% during $-1\;cmH_2O$ compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering (p < 0.05 in each). The PTP(Pressure Time Product) was also decreased significantly during 0.7 L/min on flow triggering and $-1\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering compared to $-2\;cmH_2O$ on pressure triggering (p < 0.05 in each). The proportions of imposed WOB in total WOB were ranged from 37% to 85% and no significant changes among different methods and sensitivities. The physiologic WOB showed no significant changes among different triggering methods and sensitivities. Conclusion : To reduce the imposed WOB, flow triggering with sensitivity of 0.7 L/min would be better method than pressure triggering with sensitivity of $-2\;cm\;H_2O$.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.3-49
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• 1990

This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. to import goods in each specific sector from different countries in a relatively constant proportion, the export structures of those countries will probably exhibit a high correlation. To take this hypothesis to the extreme, if the U.S. maintained an absolutely fixed ratio between its imports from any two countries for each of the 29 sectors, the correlation between the export structures of these two countries would be perfect. Therefore, since any two goods purchased in a fixed proportion could be classified as close complements, a high correlation between export structures will imply a complementary relationship between them. Conversely, low correlation would imply a competitive relationship. According to this interpretation, the pattern formed by the correlation coefficients among the five countries' export structures to the U.S. are consistent with the empirical findings of the regression analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.78-97
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• 2016

The objectives of this study are to examine the context of the establishment of Suhoe Gugok, Byeokgye Gugok Vally, and Nosan Palkyung, which have been established in Seojong-myeon of Yangpyeong-gun, by literature review and site investigations, and to determine the sceneries of Byeokgye scenic site as enjoyed and managed during the period of Hwaseo Lee, Hang-ro(華西 李恒老). The results of the study are as follows. First, Byeokgye Gugok Vally(黃蘗九曲) and Nosan Palkyung(蘆山八景), which have been established after the period of Hwaseo and theorized to have been established around key scenic areas associated with Hwaseo's activities, the analysis results showed that they were collecting sceneries of modern times. The extensive overlap between Byeokgye Gugok Vally and concentrated scenic elements of Suhoe Gugok(水回九曲), and the artificial configuration from the end point of Suhoe Gugok to the beginning point of Nosan Palkyung, reveal the pattern of space conflict and hegemony between Byeokgyes of Suip-ri and Nomun-ri. This is likely to be caused by the conflict between the historicity of the group that enjoyed Byeokgye prior to Hwaso's period and the strong territoriality of the space filled with the image of Hwaseo. Second, Byeokgye Gugok Vally was the secondary spatial system created by selecting the most scenic sites in Suip-ri while expanding the area of Nosan Palkyung. After establishment of Byeokgye Gugok Vally, the spatial identity of the entire Byeokgyecheon area was effectively established. This was a "Hwaseo-oriented" move, including the complete exclusion of the scenic sites from the pre-Hwaseo period such as Cheongseo Gujang and Suhoe Gugok's Letters Carved on the Rock. Consequently, the entire Byeokgyecheon area was reorganized into a cultural scenic site with Heoseo's influence. Third, Fifth, creations of Gugok(九曲) to determine the lineage of the Hwaseo School from Juja(朱子) to Yulgok(栗谷) to Uam(尤庵) to Hwaseo is likely to be an opportunity of birth and external motivation of the establishment of new Gugok Palkyung. In other words, Nosan Palkyung and Byeokgye Gugok Vally are likely to have been created as a reaction to the change of the center of the Hwaseo School to Okgyedong, and with strategic orientation based on the motivation and needs such as creation of the connecting space between Mui Gugok, Gosan Gugok, and Okgye Gugok, and the elevation of Hwaseo's status. Fourth, from the Hwaseo's Li-centric point of view, all revered sites in Beokwon(蘗園) that he managed existed as the spatial creative work to experience the existence of "li" through the objects in the landscape and the boundary of the spirit of emptiness of the aesthetic self. This clearly shows how Byeokgye Gugok Vally or Nosan Palkyung must be defined, and furthermore, appreciated and approached, prior to discussing it as the space associated with Hwaseo. Fifth, Nosan Palkyung was composed of cultural scenic landscapes of Gokjungkyung(曲中景) with eight scenic sites where Hwaseo gave his teachings and spend time around, in the Byeokgye of Nomun-ri area of Byeokgye Gugok Vally. The sceneries is, however, collected by depending on Hwaseo's Letters Carved on the Rock and poetry. Consequently, an inner exuberance of Nosan Palkyung is satisfied beside Byeokgye Gugok Vally, but its conceptual adequacy leaves room for questions.

• Applied Biological Chemistry
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• 제7권
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• pp.92-104
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• 1966

For the purpose of the better dietary management and to empahsize of importance in nutrition education for 552 students at the dormitories, College of Agriculture, Seoul National University, the dietary survey was conducted for each consecutive seven days, from March 7th to 13th at the boy's dormitory, from March 14th to 20th at the girl's dormitory, respectively. In comparison the average caloric and nutrient intake per caput per day at the both, girl's and boy's dormitory with the recommended dietary allowances for age of 25, the intake of calories and all nutrients except riboflavin were over the allowances for the boy, while the caloric intake by the girl was considerablly below the allowance. But it is meant that only 150 calories was actually deficient in comparison with the figure of the average energy consumption determined for the girls at the dormitory of the Sook-myung Woman's University, whose pattern of living was quite similar to those of the girls at this college. Except iron and ascorbic acid, all other nutrients were deficient for the girls. The calories in the form of protein of a diet taken by the boy was 12.9% and that by the girl was 12.8%. Protein quality of the diet taken by boy scored 70 while that by the girl scored 79. NDp Cal% of the diet taken by the boy was 7 and that by the girl was figured out to be 8. Therefore, calculated reference protein taken by the boy was 55.8 grams and that by the girl was 36.9%. Though it is generally recommended that at least 1/3 of the protein should come from animal sources, it was apparent by this survey that providing 1/5 of the protein from animal sources with remaining part of high quality vegetable protein foods in the adequate mixed diet would give satisfactory results for both girl and boy students. This was clearly demonstrated by the recommended reference protein and NDp Cal% met. Significant difference between boys and girls in the average consumption of seasonings was found. In consumption per day of seasonings, boy used 1.5 grams of red pepper powder which means they used 15 times more of red pepper than girls did. Kochujang was used 13 grams by boy-students which was as high as 21 times of that of the girl. Total salt intake by the boy was 34 grams while the girl consummed 23 grams. It is obviously recognized that boys prefer more peppery and salty flavor than girls do. To reduce the amount of protein consummed and to improve the quality of protein food, increase of riboflavin rich food and increase of fat intake in place of grain intake are recommendable to the boy. For the girl's diet, consumption of grains, particularly more intake of barley mal· be recommendable to meet the B group of vitamins allowances as well as the caloric allowance. The use of more servings of yellow green vegetables is needed to the girl.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2006

Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.29-45
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• 2012

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.