• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.329-343
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• 2019

In order to simulate the evacuation simulation of a ship during a sinking, the slope angle change of the ship must be reflected during the simulation. In this study, the passenger evacuation simulation is implemented by continuously applying the heeling angle change during sinking. To reflect crowd behavior, the human density and the congestion algorithm were developed in this research and the walking speed experiment in the special situation occurring in the inclined ship was conducted. Evacuation simulation was carried out by applying the experimental results and the change of the walking speed according to the heeling angle of the ship. In order to verify the evacuation simulation, test items suggested by International Maritime Organization (IMO) and SAFEGUARD Validation Data Set conducted on a large Ro-PAX ferry (SGVDS 1) which performed real evacuation trial in full-scale ships were performed and the results of simulation were analyzed. Based on hypothetical scenario of when a normal evacuation command is delivered to the passengers of MV SEWOL in time, we predicted and analyzed the evacuation process and the number of casualties.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.123-128
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• 2007

To predict the fire and smoke hazards of rail car with a evacuation model is essential for achieving life safety of all passengers in the event of fire. Currently, more than 30 different evacuation models are available and expected increasing demand in high population density areas as a metro train station. This paper includes brief history of evacuation models and review some key factors of design egress scenario, these are pre-movement time, egress route, location of fire, overturned carriage, and configuration of rail car. Applying the egress model for rail passenger car, users need to confirm the model's ability of physiological, psychological responses effecting to pre-movement time of individual or crowd unit, representation of complexity of carriage layout, and evaluation of effects of smoke.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.131-136
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• 2007

In this paper, the methodology to predict the number of deaths and possible fire propagation scenarios will be described in case of fire on a train in a tunnel. We use a probabilistic analysis method for the evaluation of possibility for each scenario and the deaths tolls are calculated with the help of the passenger evacuation simulation program. The resulting safety of passengers is displayed on a F/N graph, which could be used in part as a guideline to predict the safety level of the tunnel in fire.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권9호
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• pp.3347-3352
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• 2022

In 2013, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) changed the recommended maximum range of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) to 30 km, and the Kori Nuclear Power Plant in Republic of Korea has also expanded the EPZ to 30 km, following the recommendation. As a result, metropolitan cities with a high population density are contained within the EPZ, and evacuating millions of people should be considered if the 30 km range of evacuation is to take place. This study proposes an evacuation plan using buses (public transportation) to transport people outside of the EPZ, quickly and efficiently. To verify the appropriate mode share ratio of buses that can guarantee the right of vulnerable road users and reduce traffic congestion, a model was built simulating the Kori Nuclear Power Plant in Ulsan Metropolitan City. The scenarios were established by changing the mode share ratio of buses and passenger cars by 10%. Considering a large-scale network analysis at the city level, a cell transmission model was applied to calculate the evacuation time in each scenario. The result shows that the optimal mode share ratio of buses is 40%, with a total evacuation time of 132 min, considering feasible bus fleets in Ulsan Metropolitan City.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.105-114
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• 2015

여객선에서는 승선자의 안전이 가장 중요함에도 불구하고 국내에서는 인간의 피난행동특성을 반영한 피난성능에 관한 기준이 없다. 본 연구에서는 세월호 증개축 전후의 인적피난안전성을 비교 평가하고 이를 통해 현재 기준의 문제점을 도출하고자 하였다. 연구성과를 정리하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 증개축 전후의 소집장소 면적은 동일하였고, 이 면적은 모두 국내 관련 기준을 만족하는 것으로 평가되지만, 인간의 행동특성을 반영한 인적안전피난시뮬레이션 툴을 활용하면 소집이 불가능한 것으로 판단된다. 둘째, 증개축 전후 선내 공간구성에 대해 각 선실에서 퇴선까지의 피난소요시간예측 시뮬레이션을 50회씩 수행한 결과 힐링각 $0^{\circ}$ 경우에는 모두 SOLAS의 허용기준이내이므로 승객 전원이 충분히 피난할 수 있을 것으로 평가되지만, 힐링각이 $20^{\circ}$인 긴급한 상황에서 피난을 개시할 경우에는 모두 SOLAS의 주간기준은 만족하지만, 야간기준은 만족하지 못하는 것으로 예측되었다. 모든 경우에서 증축 후인 세월호의 피난시간 확률분포가 Naminoue호의 피난시간 확률분포보다 분산되어 있는데 이는 증축후 피난환경이 열악해졌다는 의미이다.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.47-56
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• 2015

본 연구는 세월호 침몰 상황 시의 실제 힐링각 변화를 환경조건으로 하고 476명의 승선자에게 정상적인 탈출명령이 전달되었을 경우를 가정한 승객 탈출시나리오를 선박용 인적피난시뮬레이션을 활용하여 예측, 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 평지에서의 평균보행속도가 각각 1.48 m/s, 2.04 m/s인 경우 힐링각 $0^{\circ}$인 시나리오와 힐링각 $30^{\circ}$인 시나리오에서 탈출 소요시간은 다르지만 모든 승객이 매우 높은 확률로 탈출에 성공할 것으로 예측되었다. 또한 세월호 사고의 힐링각 변화를 반영한 시나리오의 시뮬레이션에서는 평지 평균보행능력을 2.04 m/s로 설정한 경우 Nav. deck(5층)의 우현 슈트로만 퇴선하는 시나리오(Sc-Va)에서는 평균 3.1 %, 우현의 모든 갑판으로 퇴선하는 시나리오(Sc-Vb), 우현의 모든 갑판과 선미로 향하는 통로를 이용해 퇴선하는 시나리오(Sc-Vc)에서는 각각 11.1 %, 20.0 %이 탈출에 성공하지만, 평지 보행속도를 1.48 m/s로 설정할 경우 각각의 시나리오에 대해 0.8 %, 3.8 %, 10.7 %만이 탈출에 성공할 것으로 예측되었다.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.16-21
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• 2007

Along with the opening of the high speed railroad in 2004, the number of long tunnels constructed is increasing and will be continued. In this respect, the fro inside the tunnels is a main cause of drastic damages to both facilities and lives of passengers on board, especially more severe consequences are expected if the fire occurs on a train in urban area. Even though, the threat to human lives due to the increasing number of tong tunnels and increasing train operation times inside such tunnels is getting bigger, the studies to measure safety of the tunnel and to enhance the safety of passengers have not been carried out enough in Korea. Therefore, in this paper, we will use the probabilistic method to predict the average number of deaths of passengers in case of fire on a train iii tunnel, and show the potential risk to passengers which can be a guide for safer design of tunnels to be constructed.