• 제목/요약/키워드: partial integration

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비정형 정보와 CNN 기법을 활용한 이진 분류 모델의 고객 행태 예측: 전자상거래 사례를 중심으로 (Customer Behavior Prediction of Binary Classification Model Using Unstructured Information and Convolution Neural Network: The Case of Online Storefront)

  • 김승수;김종우
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2018
  • 최근 딥러닝 기술이 주목을 받고 있다. 대중들의 관심을 받았던 국제 이미지 인식 기술 대회(ILSVR)와 알파고(AlphaGo)에서 사용된 딥러닝 기술이 바로 합성곱 신경망(CNN; Convolution Neural Network)이다. 합성곱 신경망은 입력 이미지를 작은 구역으로 나누어 부분적인 특징을 인식하고 이것을 결합하여 전체를 인식하는 특징을 가진다. 이러한 딥러닝 기술이 우리의 생활에 있어 많은 변화를 야기할 것이라는 기대를 주고 있지만 현재까지는 이미지 인식과 자연어 처리 등에 그 성과가 국한되어 있다. 비즈니스 문제에 대한 딥러닝 활용은 아직까지 초기 연구 단계로 향후 마케팅 응답 예측이나 허위 거래 식별, 부도 예측과 같은 전통적 비즈니스 문제들에 대해 보다 깊게 활용되고 그 성능이 입증된다면 딥러닝 기술의 활용 가치가 보다 더 주목받게 될 것으로 기대된다. 이러한 때 비교적 고객 식별이 용이하고 활용 가치가 높은 빅데이터를 보유하고 있는 전자상거래 기업의 사례를 바탕으로 하여 딥러닝 기술의 비즈니스 문제 해결 가능성을 진단해보는 것은 학술적으로 매우 의미 있는 시도라 할 수 있겠다. 이에 본 연구에서는 전자상거래 기업의 고객 행태 예측력을 높이기 위한 방안으로 합성곱 신경망을 활용한 '이종 정보 결합(Heterogeneous Information Integration)의 CNN 모델'을 제시한다. 이는 정형과 비정형 정보를 결합하여 다층 퍼셉트론 구조의 합성곱 신경망에서 학습시키는 모델로서 최적의 성능을 발휘하도록 '이종 정보 결합'과 '비정형 정보의 벡터 전환', 그리고 '다층 퍼셉트론 설계'로 하는 3개의 내부 아키텍처를 정의하고 각 아키텍처 단위로 구성되는 방식에 따른 성능을 평가하여 그 결과를 바탕으로 제안 모델을 확정하고 그 성능을 평가해보고자 한다. 고객 행태 예측을 위한 목표 변수는 전자상거래 기업에서 중요하게 관리하고 있는 재구매 고객, 이탈 고객, 고빈도 구매 고객, 고빈도 반품 고객, 고단가 구매 고객, 고할인 구매 고객 등 모두 6개의 이진 분류 문제로 정의한다. 제안한 모델의 유용성을 검증하기 위해서 국내 특정 전자상거래 기업의 실제 데이터를 활용하여 실험을 수행하였다. 실험 결과 정형과 비정형 정보를 결합하여 CNN을 활용한 제안 모델이 NBC(Naïve Bayes classification)과 SVM(Support vector machine), 그리고 ANN(Artificial neural network)에 비해서 예측 정확도와 F1 Measure가 높게 평가되었다. 또 NBC, SVM, ANN에서 정형 정보만을 사용할 때 보다 정형과 비정형 정보를 결합하여 입력 변수로 함께 활용한 경우에 예측 정확도가 향상되는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 실험 결과로부터 비정형 정보의 활용이 고객 행태 예측의 정확도 향상에 기여한다는 점과 CNN 기법의 특징 추출 알고리즘이 VOC에 사용된 단어들의 분포와 위치 정보를 해석하여 문장의 의미를 파악하는데 효과적이라는 점을 실증적으로 확인하였다는데 그 의미가 있다고 할 수 있겠다. 이를 통해서 CNN 기법이 지금까지 소개된 이미지 인식이나 자연어 처리 분야 외에 비즈니스 문제 해결에도 활용 가치가 높다는 점을 확인하였다는데 이 연구의 의의가 있다 하겠다.

PLS 경로모형을 이용한 IT 조직의 BSC 성공요인간의 인과관계 분석 (A PLS Path Modeling Approach on the Cause-and-Effect Relationships among BSC Critical Success Factors for IT Organizations)

  • 이정훈;신택수;임종호
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.207-228
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    • 2007
  • Measuring Information Technology(IT) organizations' activities have been limited to mainly measure financial indicators for a long time. However, according to the multifarious functions of Information System, a number of researches have been done for the new trends on measurement methodologies that come with financial measurement as well as new measurement methods. Especially, the researches on IT Balanced Scorecard(BSC), concept from BSC measuring IT activities have been done as well in recent years. BSC provides more advantages than only integration of non-financial measures in a performance measurement system. The core of BSC rests on the cause-and-effect relationships between measures to allow prediction of value chain performance measures to allow prediction of value chain performance measures, communication, and realization of the corporate strategy and incentive controlled actions. More recently, BSC proponents have focused on the need to tie measures together into a causal chain of performance, and to test the validity of these hypothesized effects to guide the development of strategy. Kaplan and Norton[2001] argue that one of the primary benefits of the balanced scorecard is its use in gauging the success of strategy. Norreklit[2000] insist that the cause-and-effect chain is central to the balanced scorecard. The cause-and-effect chain is also central to the IT BSC. However, prior researches on relationship between information system and enterprise strategies as well as connection between various IT performance measurement indicators are not so much studied. Ittner et al.[2003] report that 77% of all surveyed companies with an implemented BSC place no or only little interest on soundly modeled cause-and-effect relationships despite of the importance of cause-and-effect chains as an integral part of BSC. This shortcoming can be explained with one theoretical and one practical reason[Blumenberg and Hinz, 2006]. From a theoretical point of view, causalities within the BSC method and their application are only vaguely described by Kaplan and Norton. From a practical consideration, modeling corporate causalities is a complex task due to tedious data acquisition and following reliability maintenance. However, cause-and effect relationships are an essential part of BSCs because they differentiate performance measurement systems like BSCs from simple key performance indicator(KPI) lists. KPI lists present an ad-hoc collection of measures to managers but do not allow for a comprehensive view on corporate performance. Instead, performance measurement system like BSCs tries to model the relationships of the underlying value chain in cause-and-effect relationships. Therefore, to overcome the deficiencies of causal modeling in IT BSC, sound and robust causal modeling approaches are required in theory as well as in practice for offering a solution. The propose of this study is to suggest critical success factors(CSFs) and KPIs for measuring performance for IT organizations and empirically validate the casual relationships between those CSFs. For this purpose, we define four perspectives of BSC for IT organizations according to Van Grembergen's study[2000] as follows. The Future Orientation perspective represents the human and technology resources needed by IT to deliver its services. The Operational Excellence perspective represents the IT processes employed to develop and deliver the applications. The User Orientation perspective represents the user evaluation of IT. The Business Contribution perspective captures the business value of the IT investments. Each of these perspectives has to be translated into corresponding metrics and measures that assess the current situations. This study suggests 12 CSFs for IT BSC based on the previous IT BSC's studies and COBIT 4.1. These CSFs consist of 51 KPIs. We defines the cause-and-effect relationships among BSC CSFs for IT Organizations as follows. The Future Orientation perspective will have positive effects on the Operational Excellence perspective. Then the Operational Excellence perspective will have positive effects on the User Orientation perspective. Finally, the User Orientation perspective will have positive effects on the Business Contribution perspective. This research tests the validity of these hypothesized casual effects and the sub-hypothesized causal relationships. For the purpose, we used the Partial Least Squares approach to Structural Equation Modeling(or PLS Path Modeling) for analyzing multiple IT BSC CSFs. The PLS path modeling has special abilities that make it more appropriate than other techniques, such as multiple regression and LISREL, when analyzing small sample sizes. Recently the use of PLS path modeling has been gaining interests and use among IS researchers in recent years because of its ability to model latent constructs under conditions of nonormality and with small to medium sample sizes(Chin et al., 2003). The empirical results of our study using PLS path modeling show that the casual effects in IT BSC significantly exist partially in our hypotheses.

IT 아웃소싱 성공에 영향을 미치는 3가지 IT 자원들과 그 관계: 자원기반 관점에서 (A Resource-Based Perspective on Three IT Resources and Their Relationships in IT Outsourcing)

  • 김치헌;김준석;임건신
    • 경영정보학연구
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.53-74
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    • 2012
  • IT 아웃소싱은 서로 다른 두 기업의 자원들이 계약이라는 관계를 통해 결합되는 특수한 상황이다. 자원기반 관점(Resource-Based View)에서는 IT 아웃소싱 제공 기업의 자원, 고객 기업의 IT 자원, 그리고 제공 기업과 고객 기업간의 관계 자원이 동시에 IT 아웃소싱 성공에 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 한다. 그러나 선행 연구들 중 이 세 IT 자원들의 영향력을 동시에 비교 분석한 연구가 드물다. 또한 IT 자원은 유형적 IT 자산과 무형적 IT 역량으로 구분되는데, IT 역량만이 IT 성과에 영향을 미칠 것이라는 Bharadwaj(2000) 등의 주장을 IT 아웃소싱 배경에서 실증 분석한 연구도 거의 없다. 따라서 본 연구는 1) 세 IT 자원이 IT 아웃소싱 성공에 미치는 영향을 동시에 비교검증하고, 2) 특히 고객 기업의 IT 자원을 IT 자산과 IT 역량으로 구분하여 IT 아웃소싱 성공에 대한 영향력을 검증하였다. 이 연구 목적을 달성하기 위해 최근 3년간 국내 순위 100위권 내에 속한 기업 138개 중 45개 기업의 62개 IT 아웃소싱 프로젝트를 대상으로 자료를 수집하였고, 수집한 자료를 PLS를 사용한 경로분석으로 분석하였다. 경로분석결과, IT 아웃소싱 제공 기업의 자원은 높은 신뢰관계가 있을 때만 IT 아웃소싱 성공에 영향을 미치고, 고객 기업이 높은 IT 역량을 확보할 때만 IT 아웃소싱이 성공할 수 있음을 발견하였다. 이를 통해 본 연구는 IT 아웃소싱 상황에서도 자원기반 관점을 다시 한번 확증하였다는 점에 그 의의를 둘 수 있다. 즉 Bharadwaj(2000)의 연구결과와 마찬가지로 기업의 IT 자산이 아닌 IT 역량이 IT 성과에 영향을 미친다는 것을 IT 아웃소싱 상황에서 실증적으로 보여주었고, 관계 자원의 중요성도 본 연구의 결과를 통해 제시하였다.

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소규모 기업에 있어서 지식소싱 전략이 기업성과에 미치는 영향 고찰 (An Examination of Knowledge Sourcing Strategies Effects on Corporate Performance in Small Enterprises)

  • 최병구
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.57-81
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    • 2008
  • Knowledge is an essential strategic weapon for sustaining competitive advantage and is the key determinant for organizational growth. When knowledge is shared and disseminated throughout the organization, it increases an organization's value by providing the ability to respond to new and unusual situations. The growing importance of knowledge as a critical resource has forced executives to pay attention to their organizational knowledge. Organizations are increasingly undertaking knowledge management initiatives and making significant investments. Knowledge sourcing is considered as the first important step in effective knowledge management. Most firms continue to make an effort to realize the benefits of knowledge management by using various knowledge sources effectively. Appropriate knowledge sourcing strategies enable organizations to create, acquire, and access knowledge in a timely manner by reducing search and transfer costs, which result in better firm performance. In response, the knowledge management literature has devoted substantial attention to the analysis of knowledge sourcing strategies. Many studies have categorized knowledge sourcing strategies into intemal- and external-oriented. Internal-oriented sourcing strategy attempts to increase firm performance by integrating knowledge within the boundary of the firm. On the contrary, external-oriented strategy attempts to bring knowledge in from outside sources via either acquisition or imitation, and then to transfer that knowledge across to the organization. However, the extant literature on knowledge sourcing strategies focuses primarily on large organizations. Although many studies have clearly highlighted major differences between large and small firms and the need to adopt different strategies for different firm sizes, scant attention has been given to analyzing how knowledge sourcing strategies affect firm performance in small firms and what are the differences between small and large firms in the patterns of knowledge sourcing strategies adoption. This study attempts to advance the current literature by examining the impact of knowledge sourcing strategies on small firm performance from a holistic perspective. By drawing on knowledge based theory from organization science and complementarity theory from the economics literature, this paper is motivated by the following questions: (1) what are the adoption patterns of different knowledge sourcing strategies in small firms (i,e., what sourcing strategies should be adopted and which sourcing strategies work well together in small firms)?; and (2) what are the performance implications of these adoption patterns? In order to answer the questions, this study developed three hypotheses. First hypothesis based on knowledge based theory is that internal-oriented knowledge sourcing is positively associated with small firm performance. Second hypothesis developed on the basis of knowledge based theory is that external-oriented knowledge sourcing is positively associated with small firm performance. The third one based on complementarity theory is that pursuing both internal- and external-oriented knowledge sourcing simultaneously is negatively or less positively associated with small firm performance. As a sampling frame, 700 firms were identified from the Annual Corporation Report in Korea. Survey questionnaires were mailed to owners or executives who were most erudite about the firm s knowledge sourcing strategies and performance. A total of 188 companies replied, yielding a response rate of 26.8%. Due to incomplete data, 12 responses were eliminated, leaving 176 responses for the final analysis. Since all independent variables were measured using continuous variables, supermodularity function was used to test the hypotheses based on the cross partial derivative of payoff function. The results indicated no significant impact of internal-oriented sourcing strategies while positive impact of external-oriented sourcing strategy on small firm performance. This intriguing result could be explained on the basis of various resource and capital constraints of small firms. Small firms typically have restricted financial and human resources. They do not have enough assets to always develop knowledge internally. Another possible explanation is competency traps or core rigidities. Building up a knowledge base based on internal knowledge creates core competences, but at the same time, excessive internal focused knowledge exploration leads to behaviors blind to other knowledge. Interestingly, this study found that Internal- and external-oriented knowledge sourcing strategies had a substitutive relationship, which was inconsistent with previous studies that suggested complementary relationship between them. This result might be explained using organizational identification theory. Internal organizational members may perceive external knowledge as a threat, and tend to ignore knowledge from external sources because they prefer to maintain their own knowledge, legitimacy, and homogeneous attitudes. Therefore, integrating knowledge from internal and external sources might not be effective, resulting in failure of improvements of firm performance. Another possible explanation is small firms resource and capital constraints and lack of management expertise and absorptive capacity. Although the integration of different knowledge sources is critical, high levels of knowledge sourcing in many areas are quite expensive and so are often unrealistic for small enterprises. This study provides several implications for research as well as practice. First this study extends the existing knowledge by examining the substitutability (and complementarity) of knowledge sourcing strategies. Most prior studies have tended to investigate the independent effects of these strategies on performance without considering their combined impacts. Furthermore, this study tests complementarity based on the productivity approach that has been considered as a definitive test method for complementarity. Second, this study sheds new light on knowledge management research by identifying the relationship between knowledge sourcing strategies and small firm performance. Most current literature has insisted complementary relationship between knowledge sourcing strategies on the basis of data from large firms. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, this study identifies substitutive relationship between knowledge sourcing strategies using data from small firms. Third, implications for practice highlight that managers of small firms should focus on knowledge sourcing from external-oriented strategies. Moreover, adoption of both sourcing strategies simultaneousiy impedes small firm performance.

지속적 제품관여도와 소비자 요구신뢰수준 간의 영향관계: 인지된 위험의 매개 역할에 대한 실증분석을 중심으로 (The Mediating Role of Perceived Risk in the Relationships Between Enduring Product Involvement and Trust Expectation)

  • 홍일유;김태하;차훈상
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2013
  • When a consumer needs a product or service and multiple sellers are available online, the process of selecting a seller to buy online from is complex since the process involves many behavioral dimensions that have to be taken into account. As a part of this selection process, consumers may set minimum trust expectation that can be used to screen out less trustworthy sellers. In the previous research, the level of consumers' trust expectation has been anchored on two important factors: product involvement and perceived risk. Product involvement refers to the extent to which a consumer perceives a specific product important. Thus, the higher product involvement may result in the higher trust expectation in sellers. On the other hand, other related studies found that when consumers perceived a higher level of risk (e.g., credit card fraud risk), they set higher trust expectation as well. While abundant research exists addressing the relationship between product involvement and perceived risk, little attention has been paid to the integrative view of the link between the two constructs and their impacts on the trust expectation. The present paper is a step toward filling this research gap. The purpose of this paper is to understand the process by which a consumer chooses an online merchant by examining the relationships among product involvement, perceived risk, trust expectation, and intention to buy from an e-tailer. We specifically focus on the mediating role of perceived risk in the relationships between enduring product involvement and the trust expectation. That is, we question whether product involvement affects the trust expectation directly without mediation or indirectly mediated by perceived risk. The research model with four hypotheses was initially tested using data gathered from 635 respondents through an online survey method. The structural equation modeling technique with partial least square was used to validate the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that three out of the four hypotheses formulated were supported. First, we found that the intention to buy from a digital storefront is positively and significantly influenced by the trust expectation, providing support for H4 (trust expectation ${\rightarrow}$ purchase intention). Second, perceived risk was found to be a strong predictor of trust expectation, supporting H2 as well (perceived risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust expectation). Third, we did not find any evidence of direct influence of product involvement, which caused H3 to be rejected (product involvement ${\rightarrow}$ trust expectation). Finally, we found significant positive relationship between product involvement and perceived risk (H1: product involvement ${\rightarrow}$ perceived risk), which suggests that the possibility of complete mediation of perceived risk in the relationship between enduring product involvement and the trust expectation. As a result, we conducted an additional test for the mediation effect by comparing the original model with the revised model without the mediator variable of perceived risk. Indeed, we found that there exists a strong influence of product involvement on the trust expectation (by intentionally eliminating the variable of perceived risk) that was suppressed (i.e., mediated) by the perceived risk in the original model. The Sobel test statistically confirmed the complete mediation effect. Results of this study offer the following key findings. First, enduring product involvement is positively related to perceived risk, implying that the higher a consumer is enduringly involved with a given product, the greater risk he or she is likely to perceive with regards to the online purchase of the product. Second, perceived risk is positively related to trust expectation. A consumer with great risk perceptions concerning the online purchase is likely to buy from a highly trustworthy online merchant, thereby mitigating potential risks. Finally, product involvement was found to have no direct influence on trust expectation, but the relationship between the two constructs was indirect and mediated by the perceived risk. This is perhaps an important theoretical integration of two separate streams of literature on product involvement and perceived risk. The present research also provides useful implications for practitioners as well as academicians. First, one implication for practicing managers in online retail stores is that they should invest in reducing the perceived risk of consumers in order to lower down the trust expectation and thus increasing the consumer's intention to purchase products or services. Second, an academic implication is that perceived risk mediates the relationship between enduring product involvement and trust expectation. Further research is needed to elaborate the theoretical relationships among the constructs under consideration.