• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
• /
• 제30권1호
• /
• pp.87-94
• /
• 2017

신뢰성 해석 및 신뢰성기반 최적설계는 불확실성을 고려한 확률변수를 입력 값으로 요구하며, 확률변수는 모수적 비모수적 통계모델링 방법을 사용하여 확률분포함수의 형태로 정량화 된다. 신뢰성 해석과 같은 통계적 해석은 입력되는 확률분포함수의 특성이 결과값에 영향을 미치게 되며, 확률분포함수는 통계모델링 방법에 따라 다른 형태를 가지게 된다. 본 연구에서는 모수적 통계모델링 방법인 순차적 통계모델링 방법과 비모수적 방법인 커널밀도추정을 사용하여 데이터의 개수에 따른 통계모델링의 결과를 분석하였다. 또한 수치예제를 통해 두 가지 기법에 따른 신뢰성 해석의 결과를 분석하였고, 데이터의 개수에 따른 적절한 기법을 제안하였다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제14권11호
• /
• pp.6751-6755
• /
• 2013

Background: Research on cancers with a high rate of mortality such as those occurring in the stomach requires using models which can provide a closer examination of disease processes and provide researchers with more accurate data. Various models have been designed based on this issue and the present study aimed at evaluating such models. Materials and Methods: Data from 330 patients with gastric cancer undergoing surgery at Iran Cancer Institute from 1995 to 1999 were analyzed. Cox-Snell Residuals and Akaike Information Criterion were used to compare parametric and semi-parametric Cox models in modeling transition rates among different states of a multi-state model. R 2.15.1 software was used for all data analyses. Results: Analysis of Cox-Snell Residuals and Akaike Information Criterion for all probable transitions among different states revealed that parametric models represented a better fitness. Log-logistic, Gompertz and Log-normal models were good choices for modeling transition rate for relapse hazard (state $1{\rightarrow}state$ 2), death hazard without a relapse (state $1{\rightarrow}state$ 3) and death hazard with a relapse (state $2{\rightarrow}state$ 3), respectively. Conclusions: Although the semi-parametric Cox model is often used by most cancer researchers in modeling transition rates of multistate models, parametric models in similar situations- as they do not need proportional hazards assumption and consider a specific statistical distribution for time to occurrence of next state in case this assumption is not made - are more credible alternatives.

• 대한지리학회지
• /
• 제51권2호
• /
• pp.219-233
• /
• 2016

수리 또는 계량적 모형을 사용하는 사회과학연구에서 분석의 초점은 종속변수와 설명변수의 관계를 밝히는 것, 즉 설명 중심의 모형(explanatory modeling)이 지금까지 주류를 이루었다. 반면 예측(prediction) 능력 제고에 초점을 맞춘 분석은 드물었다. 본 연구에서는 이론 및 가설을 검증하거나 변수 간의 관계를 밝히는 설명 중심의 모형이 아니라 신규 관찰치에 대한 예측 오차를 줄이는, 예측 중심의 비모수 모형(non-parametric model)을 검토하였다. 서울시 강남구를 사례지역으로 선정한 후, 2011년부터 2014년까지 신고된 단독주택 실거래가를 기초자료로 하여 주택가격을 추정하였다. 적용한 비모수 모형은 기계학습 분야에서 제시된 일반가산모형(generalized additive model), 랜덤 포리스트, MARS(multivariate adaptive regression splines), SVM(support vector machines) 등이며 비교적 최근에 개발된 MARS나 SVM의 예측력이 뛰어남을 확인할 수 있었다. 마지막으로 이러한 비모수 모형에 공간적 자기상관성을 추가적으로 반영한 결과, 모형의 가격 예측력이 보다 개선되었음을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구를 계기로 그간 모수 모형에 집중되었던 부동산 가격추정 방법론이 비모수 모형으로 확대 및 다양화되기를 기대한다.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
• /
• 제32권3호
• /
• pp.1-10
• /
• 2014

The efficient application of any welding process depends on the understanding of associated process parameters influence on the weld quality. The weld quality includes the weld bead dimensions, temperature distribution, metallurgical phases and the mechanical properties. A detailed review on the experimental and numerical approaches to understand the parametric influence of a single wire submerged arc welding (SAW) and multi-wire SAW processes on the final weld quality is reported in two parts. The first part deals with the experimental approaches which explain the parametric influence on the weld bead dimensions, metallurgical phases and the mechanical properties of the SAW weldment. Furthermore, the studies related to statistical modeling of the present welding process are also discussed. The second part deals with the numerical approaches which focus on the conduction based, and heat transfer and fluid flow analysis based studies in the present welding process. The present paper is the first part.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제84권2호
• /
• pp.207-224
• /
• 2022

The mechanical behavior of prestressed concrete haunched beams (PSHBs) was investigated in depth using a finite element modeling technique in this study. The efficiency of finite element modeling was investigated in the first stage by taking into account a previous study from the literature. The first stage's findings suggested that finite element modeling might be preferable for modeling PSHBs. In the second stage of the research, a comprehensive parametric study was carried out to determine the effect of each parameter on PSHB load capacity, including haunch angle, prestress level, compressive strength, tensile reinforcement ratio, and shear span to depth ratio. PSHBs and prestressed concrete rectangular beams (PSRBs) were also compared in terms of capacity. Stochastic analysis was used in the third stage to define the uncertainty in PSHB capacity by taking into account uncertainty in geometric and material parameters. Standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the most appropriate probability density function (PDF) were proposed as a result of the analysis to define the randomness of capacity of PSHBs. In the study's final section, a new equation was proposed for using symbolic regression to predict the load capacity of PSHBs and PSRBs. The equation's statistical results show that it can be used to calculate the capacity of PSHBs and PSRBs.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 춘계 학술발표회
• /
• pp.1358-1365
• /
• 2010

Estimating condition of slope is difficult because of nonlinear time dependency and seasonal effects, which affect the displacements. Displacements and displacement patterns of landslides are highly variable in time and space, and a unique approach cannot be defined to model landslide movements. Characteristics of movements are obtained by using a statistical method called Principal Component Analysis(PCA). The PCA is a non-parametric method to separate unknown, statistically uncorrelated source processes from observed mixed processes. In the non-parametric approaches, no physical assumptions of target systems are required. Instead, since the "best" mathematical relationship is estimated for given data sets of the input and output measured from target systems. As a consequence, non-parametric approaches are advantageous in modeling systems whose geomechanical properties are unknown or difficult to be measured. Non-parametric approaches are consequently more flexible in modeling than parametric approaches. This method is expected to be a useful tool for the slope management of and alarm systems.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제38권10호
• /
• pp.1139-1145
• /
• 2014

인체 골격의 모델생성과 형상변동을 파악하는 것은 생체역학의 응용분야에서 중요한 부분을 차지한다. 본 논문에서는 3 차원 대퇴골 모델의 데이터베이스로부터 대퇴골의 형상변동을 통계적으로 분석하고, 추출된 주요 파라미터를 사용하여 대퇴골의 형상을 직관적으로 모델링 할 수 있는 방법을 제안한다. 이를 위해서 먼저 통계적 기법 중에 하나인 주성분 분석(PCA)을 이용하여 대퇴골의 형상변동을 파악하였다. 주성분 분석을 수행하기 위해서는 3 차원 대퇴골 모델 간에 토폴로지(Topology)의 일치가 필요하다. 따라서 대퇴골의 형상에 해부학적 기준점(Landmark)을 정의하여 템플릿 모델이 대상 대퇴골 모델로 변형되기 위한 방향을 결정한 후 곡면 피팅(Surface fitting)을 수행하였다. 다음으로 주성분 분석을 통해 도출된 주성분과 대퇴골의 형상을 대표할 수 있는 해부학적 파라미터와의 상관관계를 정의하였다. 마지막으로 해부학적 파라미터로 대퇴골 모델의 생성 및 형상변동을 가시화 할 수 있는 프로그램을 개발하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제31권1호
• /
• pp.77-91
• /
• 2002

This paper considers a functional regression model with truncated errors in explanatory variables. We show that the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators produce bias in regression parameter estimates under misspecified models with ignored errors in the explanatory variable measurements, and then propose methods for analyzing the functional model. Fully parametric frequentist approaches for analyzing the model are intractable and thus Bayesian methods are pursued using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based approach. Necessary theories involved in modeling and computation are provided. Finally, a simulation study is given to illustrate and examine the proposed methods.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국통계학회 2003년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.179-182
• /
• 2003

This study describes a new graphical method for assessing and characterizing effect modification by a matching covariate in matched case-control studies. This method to understand effect modification is based on a semiparametric model using a varying coefficient model. The method allows for nonparametric relationships between effect modification and other covariates, or can be useful in suggesting parametric models. This method can be applied to examining effect modification by any ordered categorical or continuous covariates for which cases have been matched with controls. The method applies to effect modification when causality might be reasonably assumed. An example from veterinary medicine is used to demonstrate our approach. The simulation results show that this method, when based on linear, quadratic and nonparametric effect modification, can be more powerful than both a parametric multiplicative model fit and a fully nonparametric generalized additive model fit.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제66권4호
• /
• pp.423-438
• /
• 2018

This pioneer study focuses on finite element modeling and numerical modeling of three types of Reinforced Concrete Haunched Beams (RCHBs). Firstly, twenty RCHBs, consisting of three types, and four prismatic beams which had been tested experimentally were modeled via a nonlinear finite element method (NFEM) based software named as, ATENA. The modeling results were compared with experimental results including load capacity, deflection, crack pattern and mode of failure. The comparison showed a good agreement between the results and thus the model used can be effectively used for further studies of RCHB with high accuracy. Afterwards, new mechanism modes and design code equations were proposed to improve the shear design equation of ACI-318 and to predict the critical effective depth. These equations are the first comprehensive formulas in the literature involving all types of RCHBs. The statistical analysis showed the superiority of the proposed equation to their predecessors where the correlation coefficient, $R^2$ was found to be 0.89 for the proposed equation. Moreover, the new equation was validated using parametric and reliability analyses. The parametric analysis of both experimental and predicted results shows that the inclination angle and the compressive strength were the most influential parameters on the shear strength. The reliability analysis indicates that the accuracy of the new formulation is significantly higher as compared to available design equations and its reliability index is within acceptable limits.