• Title/Summary/Keyword: overconfidence

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Developmental Difference in Metacognitive Accuracy between High School Students and College Students (메타인지 정확성의 발달 차이 연구: 고등학생과 대학생 데이터)

  • Bae, Jinhee;Cho, Hye-Seung;Kim, Kyungil
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.53-67
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    • 2015
  • Metacognitive monitoring refers to high dimensional cognitive activities. Understanding one's own cognitive processes accurately can make effective controls for their performance. Brain area related with metacognition is PFC which is completed the order of late and it can be inferred that monitoring abilities is developing during late adolescent. In this study, we explored the developmental difference in monitoring accuracy between high school students and college students using by measuring JOL(Judgment of Learning). Participants was asked that they study Spanish-Korean word pairs and judge their future performance of memory. In the result, people in both groups thought that they could remember word pairs better than their actual performance. Absolute bias scores which mean the degree to predict their performance apart from true scores showed the interaction between subject groups and task difficulty. Specifically, people judged their learning state quite accurately in easy task condition. However, in difficult task condition, both groups showed inaccuracy for predicting their learning and the magnitude of the degree was bigger in the group of high school students.

Exploring Cognitive Biases Limiting Rational Problem Solving and Debiasing Methods Using Science Education (합리적 문제해결을 저해하는 인지편향과 과학교육을 통한 탈인지편향 방법 탐색)

  • Ha, Minsu
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.935-946
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to explore cognitive biases relating the core competences of science and instructional strategy in reducing the level of cognitive biases. The literature review method was used to explore cognitive biases and science education experts discussed the relevance of cognitive biases to science education. Twenty nine cognitive biases were categorized into five groups (limiting rational causal inference, limiting diverse information search, limiting self-regulated learning, limiting self-directed decision making, and category-limited thinking). The cognitive biases in limiting rational causal inference group are teleological thinking, availability heuristic, illusory correlation, and clustering illusion. The cognitive biases in limiting diverse information search group are selective perception, experimenter bias, confirmation bias, mere thought effect, attentional bias, belief bias, pragmatic fallacy, functional fixedness, and framing effect. The cognitive biases in limiting self-regulated learning group are overconfidence bias, better-than-average bias, planning fallacy, fundamental attribution error, Dunning-Kruger effect, hindsight bias, and blind-spot bias. The cognitive biases in limiting self-directed decision-making group are acquiescence effect, bandwagon effect, group-think, appeal to authority bias, and information bias. Lastly, the cognitive biases in category-limited thinking group are psychological essentialism, stereotyping, anthropomorphism, and outgroup homogeneity bias. The instructional strategy to reduce the level of cognitive biases is disused based on the psychological characters of cognitive biases reviewed in this study and related science education methods.

Exploring the Difficulties of High School Students in Self-Directed Scientific Inquiry (고등학생의 자기 주도적 과학탐구연구에서 나타난 어려움 탐색)

  • Kim, Gahyoung;Ha, Minsu
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.707-715
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    • 2019
  • The self-directed inquiry to improve students' core scientific competency is an important teaching method. Students experience a variety of difficulties in carrying out their inquiry tasks, sometimes fail to produce the desired results, or fail to perform a meaningless inquiry. This study was conducted to identify the causes of difficulties and failures in students' self-directed scientific inquiry. The study involved 16 high school students with experience in science research at science high schools and science-focused high schools. The data collection consisted of in-depth interviews centered on semi-structured open questions. Qualitative data analysis was imputed by finding paragraphs from the interview material that might reveal the difficulties and failures experienced by participants and the reasons for them. The study found that most of the causes of failure were lack of ability, incomplete procedures, and selection of complicated tasks. A variety of cognitive biases, such as overconfidence, planning fallacy, and groupthink, were also analyzed as causes. Based on the results of the study, it is necessary to develop an educational strategy that students can be fully prepared to reduce their trials and errors in a self-directed inquiry maximally.

Analysis of Grounding Accidents in Small Fishing Vessels and Suggestions to Reduce Them (소형어선의 좌초사고 분석과 사고 저감을 위한 제언)

  • Chong, Dae-Yul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.533-541
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    • 2022
  • An analysis of marine accidents that occurred in the last five years, revealed that 77.0 % of all grounding accidents and 66.1% of all marine casualties involved small vessels, which was a very high level relatively. The Mokpo Regional Maritime Safety Tribunal (Mokpo-KMST) inquired on 72 cases of marine accidents in 2021, of which 10 cases were grounding accidents. Furthermore, eight cases of grounding accidents occurred in small fishing vessels. This study analyzed eight cases of grounding accidents on small fishing vessels that inquired in the jurisdictional area of Mokpo-KMST in 2021. I found out that this grounding occurred in clear weather with good visibility (2-4 miles) and good sea conditions with a wave height of less than 1 meter. Furthermore, I found that the main causes of grounding were drowsy navigation due to fatigue, neglect of vigilance, neglect of checking ship's position, overconfidence in GPS plotter, and lack of understanding of chart symbols and tidal differences. To reduce grounding accidents of small fishing vessels, I suggested the following measures. First, crew members who have completed the able seafarer training course on bridge watchkeeping should assist to the master. Second, alarm systems to prevent drowsiness should be installed in the bridge. Third, the regulation should be prepared for the performance standards and updating GPS plotter. Finally, the skipper of small vessels should be trained periodically to be familiar with chart symbols and basic terrestrial navigation.

Understanding of Generative Artificial Intelligence Based on Textual Data and Discussion for Its Application in Science Education (텍스트 기반 생성형 인공지능의 이해와 과학교육에서의 활용에 대한 논의)

  • Hunkoog Jho
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to explain the key concepts and principles of text-based generative artificial intelligence (AI) that has been receiving increasing interest and utilization, focusing on its application in science education. It also highlights the potential and limitations of utilizing generative AI in science education, providing insights for its implementation and research aspects. Recent advancements in generative AI, predominantly based on transformer models consisting of encoders and decoders, have shown remarkable progress through optimization of reinforcement learning and reward models using human feedback, as well as understanding context. Particularly, it can perform various functions such as writing, summarizing, keyword extraction, evaluation, and feedback based on the ability to understand various user questions and intents. It also offers practical utility in diagnosing learners and structuring educational content based on provided examples by educators. However, it is necessary to examine the concerns regarding the limitations of generative AI, including the potential for conveying inaccurate facts or knowledge, bias resulting from overconfidence, and uncertainties regarding its impact on user attitudes or emotions. Moreover, the responses provided by generative AI are probabilistic based on response data from many individuals, which raises concerns about limiting insightful and innovative thinking that may offer different perspectives or ideas. In light of these considerations, this study provides practical suggestions for the positive utilization of AI in science education.

The Effect of Self-enhancement Perception and Confidence of Investment of Individual Investors on Risky Investment Behaviors (개인투자자의 자기고양적 지각과 투자확신이 위험투자행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Mi Young Han ;Jae Hwi Kim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.89-109
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    • 2007
  • This study is an exploratory study on stock investment behaviors of individual investors in psychological perspective. The study is based on many behavioral finance studies which overconfidence of individual investors has an effect on irrational investment decision making and investment behaviors such as excessive trading. Accordingly, this study was to investigate the factors of self-enhancement perception on confidence of investment of individual investors and to find whether these psychological biases lead to irrational investment behaviors. The results indicated that there were sex differences in the factors of self-enhancement perception on individual investors' confidence of investment. In case of male investors, they were confident of their ability of investment but in case of female investors, they were confident of optimistic expectation of return. Also, male investors were more confident of investment than female investors. In addition, the result showed that risky investment behaviors of individual investors were influenced by psychological factors such as favorable self-evaluation, confidence of self-controllability, optimistic expectation of return and confidence of investment in part. This study suggests that further researches need to search after other variables which can mediate between psychological factors and investment behaviors of individual investors.

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The Effects of Cognitive Bias on Entrepreneurial Opportunity Evaluations through Perceived Risks in Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy (창업가의 인지편향이 지각된 위험과 조절된 창업효능감에 따라 창업기회평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Daeyop;Park, Jaehwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.95-112
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    • 2020
  • This paper is to investigate how cognitive bias of college students and entrepreneurs relates to perceived risks and entrepreneurial opportunities that represent uncertainty, and how various cognitive bias and entrepreneurial efficacy In the same way. The purpose of this study is to find improvement points of entrepreneurship education for college students and to suggest problems and improvement possibilities in the decision making process of current entrepreneurs. This empirical study is a necessary to improve the decision-making of individuals who want to start a business at the time when various attempts are made to activate the start-up business and increase the sustainability of the existing SME management. And understanding of the difference in opportunity evaluation, and suggests that it is necessary to provide good opportunities together with the upbringing of entrepreneurs. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, questionnaires were conducted for college students and entrepreneurs. A total of 363 questionnaire data were obtained and demonstrated through structural equation modeling. This study confirms that there is some relationship between perceived risk and cognitive bias. Overconfidence and control illusions among cognitive bias have a significant relationship between perceived risk and wealth. Especially, it is confirmed that control illusion of college students has a significant relationship with perceived risk. Second, cognitive bias demonstrated some significant relationship with opportunity evaluation. Although we did not find evidence that excess self-confidence is related to opportunity evaluation, we have verified that control illusions and current status bias are related to opportunity evaluation. Control illusions were significant in both college students and entrepreneurs. Third, perceived risk has a negative relationship with opportunity evaluation. All students, regardless of whether they are college students or entrepreneurs, judge opportunities positively if they perceive low risk. Fourth, it can be seen from the college students 'group that entrepreneurial efficacy has a moderating effect between perceived risk and opportunity evaluation, but no significant results were found in the entrepreneurs' group. Fifth, the college students and entrepreneurs have different cognitive bias, and they have proved that there is a different relationship between entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and perceived risk. On the whole, there are various cognitive biases that are caused by time pressure or stress on college students and entrepreneurs who have to make judgments in uncertain opportunities, and in this respect, they can improve their judgment in the future. At the same time, university students can have a positive view of new opportunities based on high entrepreneurial efficacy, but if they fully understand the intrinsic risks of entrepreneurship through entrepreneurial education and fully understand the cognitive bias present in direct entrepreneurial experience, You will get a better opportunity assessment. This study has limitations in that it is based on the fact that university students and entrepreneurs are integrated, and that the survey respondents are selected by the limited random sampling method. It is necessary to conduct more systematic research based on more faithful data in the absence of the accumulation of entrepreneurial research data. Second, the translation tools used in the previous studies were translated and the meaning of the measurement tools might not be conveyed due to language differences. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a more precise scale for the accuracy of the study. Finally, complementary research should be done to identify what competitive opportunities are and what opportunities are appropriate for entrepreneurs.

The Effect of Entrepreneurial Competence and Perception of Entrepreneurship Opportunities on Entrepreneurial Intention: Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Entrepreneurship Opportunity Assessment (중장년 직장인의 창업 개인역량 및 창업기회인식이 창업의도에 미치는 영향: 창업기회평가의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Ju Young Jin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.45-60
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we analyzed the influence of middle-aged office workers' entrepreneurial competency and entrepreneurial opportunity recognition on entrepreneurial intention by mediating entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation. Sub-variables of entrepreneurial competency were classified into prior knowledge, positive attitude, and social network. For the empirical analysis of this study, an online survey using Naver Office was conducted for about 15 days (February 6, 2023 - February 20, 2023) targeting office workers across the country who are interested in starting a business, and a total of 262 copies were collected and missing values. For 250 copies excluding 12 copies, SPSS Ver.24.0 and PROCESS MACRO Model 4.0 were used for empirical analysis. The results of the analysis are as follows: First, the higher the prior knowledge of the founder's individual competency, social network, and entrepreneurial opportunity recognition, the higher the entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and entrepreneurial intention. On the other hand, it was found that the positive attitude among entrepreneurs' individual competencies did not affect entrepreneurship opportunity evaluation and entrepreneurial intention. In addition, the magnitude of the influence on entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and entrepreneurial intention was in the order of entrepreneurial opportunity recognition, prior knowledge, and social network. This is because the positive attitude of middle-aged office workers towards start-up has a negative image of start-up due to the shrinking start-up environment due to COVID-19, fear of failure due to lack of preparation for start-up, and successive cases of start-up failure due to cognitive bias errors due to overconfidence. implying that there is Second, it was found that the evaluation of entrepreneurship opportunities had a significant positive (+) effect on entrepreneurial intention in a situation where the entrepreneur's individual competency and entrepreneurial opportunity recognition were controlled. Third, the startup opportunity evaluation was shown to mediate between the prior knowledge of the entrepreneur's individual competency, social network and entrepreneurial opportunity recognition, and entrepreneurial intention, but it did not mediate between positive attitude and entrepreneurial intention. Fourth, among the factors influencing entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and entrepreneurial intention, entrepreneurial opportunity recognition was found to be larger than founder's individual competency, confirming the importance of entrepreneurial opportunity recognition. Fifth, it was found that prior knowledge and network, which are individual capabilities of the founder, affect the evaluation of entrepreneurial opportunities and entrepreneurial intention, so that strengthening entrepreneurship education to recognize the importance of cultivating prior entrepreneurial knowledge and experience can revitalize middle-aged office workers' entrepreneurship. confirmed.

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