• Title/Summary/Keyword: orthogonal groups

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Age-related Changes in Multi-finger Synergy during Constant Force Production with and without Additional Mechanical Constraint

  • Park, Yang Sun;Kwon, Hyun Joon;Koh, Kyung;Shim, Jae Kun
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.175-181
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    • 2016
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate age-related changes of multi-finger synergy during a constant force production task with and without an additional mechanical constraint. Method: Fourteen elderly subjects (age: $78.50{\pm}4.63yrs$, height: $157.29{\pm}8.97cm$, weight: $65.13{\pm}6.93kg$) and 14 young subjects (age: $21.13{\pm}1.35yrs$, height: $171.57{\pm}8.43cm$, weight: $70.29{\pm}16.77kg$) participated in this study. The subjects were asked to place their index and middle fingers on two force transducers fixed on a small non-moving teeterboard and produce 10 N by pressing the sensors while watching force feedback on a computer screen under the no additional constraint condition (NAC). The subjects also performed the same task with an additional mechanical constraint (AC) where the subjects were asked to balance a teeterboard that could be rotated by finger forces. An uncontrolled manifold approach was used to calculate within-trial and between-trial multi-finger synergy indices, variance in uncontrolled subspace ($V_{UCM}$), and variance in subspace orthogonal to UCM subspace ($V_{ORT}$). Two-way repeated measured ANOVA was performed with the within-factor of task condition (with and without an additional constraint) and the between factor of groups (elderly and young). Results: The elderly group showed significantly increased within-trial $V_{ORT}$ in AC compared with NAC (p < .05) while the young group showed no significant difference between AC and NAC. There was no significant group difference for within-trial $V_{UCM}$. Between-trial $V_{ORT}$ remained unchanged between groups and conditions. However, between-trial $V_{UCM}$ for the elderly group significantly decreased in AC as compared to NAC, along with no significant difference for the young group. For multi-finger synergy, there was no significant group difference of within-trial synergy. However, between-trial synergy for the elderly group significantly decreased in AC as compared to NAC (p < .05). Conclusion: Our results indicate that aging decreased consistency (i.e., ability to perform the task on a moment-to-moment basis) with an additional mechanical constraint. In addition, aging was associated with decreased multi-finger synergy on a trial-to-trial basis.

The Preference Analysis of Adults on the Forest Therapy Program with regard to Demographic Characteristics (인구통계학적 특성에 따른 성인 대상별 산림치유 프로그램 선호도 분석)

  • Kim, Youn-Hee;Kim, Eun-Jin;Kim, Dong-Jun;Yeoun, Pyung-Sik;Choi, Byung-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.1
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    • pp.150-161
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to obtain the basic data for the effective development and operation of forest healing by analysing the preference of adults on the forest therapy program. The survey of 516 normal adults on the forest therapy program was conducted. Using SPSS 21.0 Program, data analysis of descriptive statistics and correlation analysis of each program confirmed number of covariate, and so we conducted a factor analysis to short meaningful data. And then we looked at the forest healing program preference difference according to demographic characteristics(sex, age, residence, occupation) through reliability analysis, frequency analysis, T-test, analysis of variance(ANOVA). Facter analysis was performed by use of the VariMax orthogonal rotation factor analysis to abbreviate 37 forest therapy program. Through this, the program has been reduced such as 7 program group(1: psychology-based treatment, 2: teaching and counselling-based treatment, 3: camping and forest bath-based treatment, 4: diet-based treatment, 5: nature and plant-based treatment, 6: meditation-based treatment, 7: respiration and yoga-based treatment) and 7 independent programs(1: sleeping in the forest, 2: vision quest, 3: soaking in water, 4: walking wearing shoes, 5: viewing the forest, 6: mountaineering, 7: athletics in the forest). With this criterion, the forest therapy program difference in accordance with sex, age, residence, occupation has been investigated. First, it was verified that there was a significant difference between male and female in the group of such as psychology-based treatment, diet-based treatment, mountaineering. Second, there appeared a significant difference in groups such as teaching and counselling-based treatment, camping and forest bath-based treatment, nature and plant-based treatment, respiration and yoga-based treatment, athletics in the forest. Third, according to the residence, there appeared a significant difference in groups such as psychology-based treatment, teaching and counselling-based treatment, diet-based treatment, nature and plant-based treatment, meditation-based treatment, vision quest, mountaineering, athletics in the forest. Fourth, according to the occupation, there appeared a significant difference in groups such as nature and plant-based treatment, medication-based treatment, vision quest, walking wearing shoes, viewing the forest, mountaineering. As shown before, it seems to be necessary that we should be mindful of this investigation which shows variety of preference of adults on the forest therapy program according to demographic characteristics. We expect the results of this study to be utilized as basic data for the development of forest therapy program targeting on adults.

Factor Analysis of the Seriously-ill Patient인s Family Needs (중환자 가족의 요구 요인 분석 연구)

  • 권성복;이미라
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.122-136
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    • 1987
  • A group of studies revealed that family members of the seriously ill patient had some needs during the period of patient's hospitalization. Needs of the seriously-ill patient family could be classified into three aspect, i. e. needs on the prognosis of patient, needs on the well-being of family members themselves and needs on hospital environment. Several instrument were developed to measure the needs of the seriously ill patient, but their content tended to overemphasize the aspect of the prognosis of patient. The purpose of this study was to develop a new instrument to measure the needs in the aspect of the seriously ill patient's family themselves in details to increase the cummulative Percentage of the scale. Subjects were 134 family members of the seriously-ill patients, who were bung cared in ICU of seven university hospitals and data were collected from march 16, 1987 to April 11, 1987. The instrument used in this study was made by the author on the basis of results of literature review. Content valitity of the instrument was tested by a professor majoring in nursing and reliability by calculation of Cronbach's α with data of the respondents. Data was analyzed as follows, using SAS, computer system. Factor structures of the seriously ill patients' family needs were elicited by factor analysis. The programme was the Principal Component Factor Analysis Method of factoring employing Varimax Orthogonal Rotation. The influences of the demographic variables on the degree of the seriously-ill patients' family need were analyzed by t-test and P-test. Results were as follows. 1. Needs of the seriously-ill patients' family elicited and their cummulative percentage were: Needs to be supported emotionally, 29.2% Needs to be informed on facilities available, 9.6% Needs to be informed on the patient's prognosis, 7.7%. Needs to be supported spiritually, 5.1%. Needs to be informed on hospital environment, 4.2%. Needs to be helped to spare time, 3.9%. Needs to be informed on their role, 3.5%. Needs to be present near patient, 3.3%. 2. Educational background was found to influence on some factors. College-graduate group had higher Bevel of needs to be . informed on facilities available to be informed on the patient's prognosis, needs to be supported spiritually, needs to be helped to spare time, needs to be informed on their role than high school graduate group. 3. Among the parents, sons and daughters and the relative groups, the parents of the seriously ill patient had highest level of needs to be present near patient. Suggestions for further studies were as follows. 1. As the instruments used in the previous studies had high cummulative percentages in the aspect of the prognosis of patient and that in this study in the aspect of the prognosis of patient and that in this study in the aspect of the seriously ill patient's family themselves, development of a new instrument which combined the items of both of them is needed. 2. A study to clarify the influence of type and number of admission on need to be supported emotionally is needed.

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Identification of Urinary Biomarkers Related to Cisplatin-Induced Acute Renal Toxicity Using NMR-Based Metabolomics

  • Wen, He;Yang, Hye-Ji;Choi, Myung-Joo;Kwon, Hyuk-Nam;Kim, Min-Ah;Hong, Soon-Sun;Park, Sung-Hyouk
    • Biomolecules & Therapeutics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.38-44
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    • 2011
  • Cisplatin is widely used for various types of cancers. However, its side effects, most notably, renal toxicity often limit its clinical utility. Although previous metabolomic studies reported possible toxicity markers, they used small number of animals and statistical approaches that may not perform best in the presence of intra-group variation. Here, we identified urinary biomarkers associated with renal toxicity induced by cisplatin using NMR-based metabolomics combined with Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures-Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA). Male Sprague-Dawley rats (n=22) were treated with cisplatin (10 mg/kg single dose), and the urines obtained before and after treatment were analyzed by NMR. Multivariable analysis of NMR data presented clear separation between non-treated and treated groups. The OPLS-DA statistical results revealed that 1,3-dimethylurate, taurine, glucose, glycine and branched-chain amino acid (isoleucine, leucine and valine) were significantly elevated in the treated group and that phenylacetylglycine and sarcosine levels were decreased in the treated group. To test the robustness of the approach, we built a prediction model for the toxicity and were able to predict all the unknown samples (n=14) correctly. We believe the proposed NMR-based metabolomics with OPLS-DA approach and the resulting urine markers can be used to augment the currently available blood markers.

Efficacy Evaluation of Anti-wrinkle Products in Japan

  • Masaki Hitoshi
    • Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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    • v.29 no.2 s.43
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2003
  • Two categories of cosmetic products, cosmetics and quasi-drugs, have been established by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) in Japan. Japanese pharmaceutical law has defined that products categorized as cosmetics do not exhibit any effects on human skin. In fact, cosmetic products are not permitted to claim any efficacy. On the other hand, products in the quasi-drug category can claim several efficacies such as anti-inflammatory effects, whitening/lightning effects, hair growth effects and so on. Unfortunately, the Japanese MHLW has not yet approved the efficacy of anti-aging/anti-wrinkle effects as a claim point. However, the population is aging, and the demand for anti-aging/anti-wrinkle products is increasing year by year. Japanese cosmetic companies have proposed to the MHLW that anti-aging/anti-wrinkle agents be approved as a claim concept of a quasi-drug. However, unified evaluation methods for anti-aging/anti-wrinkle effects have not been established. Currently, each company evaluates the efficacy of products/materials using their own original methods. Thus, to request approval of the MHLW, the establishment of a unified evaluation method is needed. Consequently, the Japan Cosmetic Industry Association (JCIA) has established a task force to develop guidelines for evaluating anti-wrinkle effects in 1998. In conclusion, the JCIA would like to adopt visual and image analysis scales to evaluate the anti-wrinkle effects objectively. Generally, wrinkles are roughly classified into three groups as fine wrinkles, linear deep wrinkles and crow's feet. However, academic societies of dermatology or cosmetics have not yet established a definition of wrinkles in Japan. Thus, in advance of setting up an evaluation method, the definition of wrinkles f3r evaluation must be decided. Wrinkles are defined by the task force of the JCIA as follows; furrows that people can recognize visually and that appear on the forehead, the corners of the eyes and the backs of the neck with aging. In addition, furrows are emphasized by exposure to solar light and by dry conditions. Visual evaluation is the most sensitive method and can be applied to most types of wrinkles. However, visual evaluation is hard to express digitally as results. Besides, in the case of image analysis, comparisons of data obtained from distinct examinations can not be done, because data from image analysis are relative values. Thus, to enhance the reliability of the evaluations, the adoption of an objective scale was required. The principle of the evaluation method is to analyze images taken from silicone replicas of wrinkle areas using several parameters, such as the proportion of the wrinkle $area({\%})$, the mean depth of the wrinkles (mm), the mean depth of the deepest wrinkle (m) and the deepest point on the deepest wrinkle. Lights are shown on the skin replica from an orthogonal direction of the main orientation of the wrinkle, and the resulting shadow images are quantified by the image analysis method. To increase the precision of the data or to allow comparisons of independent examinations, a scale with furrows of several depths, 200, 400, 600, 800, and $1000{\mu}m$, is adapted in the evaluation system. I will explain the guidelines established by the JCIA in the presentation.

LC/MS-based metabolomics approach for selection of chemical markers by domestic production region of Schisandra chinensis (오미자(Schisandra chinensis)의 국내 산지별 화학적마커 선정을 위한 LC/MS 기반의 대사체학 접근법)

  • In Seon Kim;Seon Min Oh;Ha Eun Song;Doo-Young Kim;Dahye Yoon;Dae Young Lee;Hyung Won Ryu
    • Journal of Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.66
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    • pp.467-476
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    • 2023
  • Schisandra chinensis (S. chinensis) is a deciduous broad-leaved cave plant belonging to the Schisandraceae family and is widely distributed in East Asia including Korea, Japan, China, and Taiwan. It has been reported that the main components contained in S. chinensis include lignan compounds and triterpenoid compounds. To distinguish the characteristics of S. chinensis by production region of Korea, a discriminant was established by performing metabolite profiling and principal component analysis, a multivariate statistical analysis technique. As a result, 16 types of triterpenoids, 9 types of lignan, and 1 type each of flavonoid, phenylpropanoid, and fatty acid were identified. In addition, through multivariate statistical analysis, it was confirmed that the four groups in Danyang, Moongyeong, Geochang, and Pyeongchang were divided, by applying the s-plot model of orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis. Biomarkers were identified: lanostane, cycloartane, schiartane triterpenoid, and dibenzocyclo-octadiene lignan were identified as chemical markers, respectively.

Steel Plate Faults Diagnosis with S-MTS (S-MTS를 이용한 강판의 표면 결함 진단)

  • Kim, Joon-Young;Cha, Jae-Min;Shin, Junguk;Yeom, Choongsub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.47-67
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    • 2017
  • Steel plate faults is one of important factors to affect the quality and price of the steel plates. So far many steelmakers generally have used visual inspection method that could be based on an inspector's intuition or experience. Specifically, the inspector checks the steel plate faults by looking the surface of the steel plates. However, the accuracy of this method is critically low that it can cause errors above 30% in judgment. Therefore, accurate steel plate faults diagnosis system has been continuously required in the industry. In order to meet the needs, this study proposed a new steel plate faults diagnosis system using Simultaneous MTS (S-MTS), which is an advanced Mahalanobis Taguchi System (MTS) algorithm, to classify various surface defects of the steel plates. MTS has generally been used to solve binary classification problems in various fields, but MTS was not used for multiclass classification due to its low accuracy. The reason is that only one mahalanobis space is established in the MTS. In contrast, S-MTS is suitable for multi-class classification. That is, S-MTS establishes individual mahalanobis space for each class. 'Simultaneous' implies comparing mahalanobis distances at the same time. The proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system was developed in four main stages. In the first stage, after various reference groups and related variables are defined, data of the steel plate faults is collected and used to establish the individual mahalanobis space per the reference groups and construct the full measurement scale. In the second stage, the mahalanobis distances of test groups is calculated based on the established mahalanobis spaces of the reference groups. Then, appropriateness of the spaces is verified by examining the separability of the mahalanobis diatances. In the third stage, orthogonal arrays and Signal-to-Noise (SN) ratio of dynamic type are applied for variable optimization. Also, Overall SN ratio gain is derived from the SN ratio and SN ratio gain. If the derived overall SN ratio gain is negative, it means that the variable should be removed. However, the variable with the positive gain may be considered as worth keeping. Finally, in the fourth stage, the measurement scale that is composed of selected useful variables is reconstructed. Next, an experimental test should be implemented to verify the ability of multi-class classification and thus the accuracy of the classification is acquired. If the accuracy is acceptable, this diagnosis system can be used for future applications. Also, this study compared the accuracy of the proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system with that of other popular classification algorithms including Decision Tree, Multi Perception Neural Network (MLPNN), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Tree Bagger Random Forest, Grid Search (GS), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The steel plates faults dataset used in the study is taken from the University of California at Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository. As a result, the proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system based on S-MTS shows 90.79% of classification accuracy. The accuracy of the proposed diagnosis system is 6-27% higher than MLPNN, LR, GS, GA and PSO. Based on the fact that the accuracy of commercial systems is only about 75-80%, it means that the proposed system has enough classification performance to be applied in the industry. In addition, the proposed system can reduce the number of measurement sensors that are installed in the fields because of variable optimization process. These results show that the proposed system not only can have a good ability on the steel plate faults diagnosis but also reduce operation and maintenance cost. For our future work, it will be applied in the fields to validate actual effectiveness of the proposed system and plan to improve the accuracy based on the results.

A Study on the Consumer's Service Quality Perception Based on the Types of Life-style (소비자의 라이프스타일에 따른 서비스품질 지각 차이에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Yoon-Seo;Lee, Seung-In;Choi, In
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.53-67
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    • 2009
  • For the last decades, service quality has been studied as one of the most important tools for a service company to compete with the other companies. Based on these past researches, it has been agreed that the service quality is a basic and powerful tool to create the competitive advantage. Due to similar reason, many service marketing practitioners have been also focused on the service quality to retain the existing consumers and collect the new consumers. However, service quality is subjectively perceived by individual consumers. Consumer evaluation of service quality can be different from each other. Especially consumers with one life-style may evaluate the service quality differently from the consumers with the other life-styles. Therefore we need to know whether there are differences in service quality perception on the categories of life-style. Life-style refers to a distinctive mode of living in its aggregate and broadest sense. It embodies the patterns that were developed and emerged from the dynamics of living in a society. Since the concept of life-style and its relationship to marketing was introduced in 1963 by William Lazer, methods of measuring the life-style and their application have been developed. Life-style has been usually used to segment the marketplace because it offers marketers a unique and important view of the market. When Life-style is combined with clustering methods, life-style segmentation can generate identifiable whole persons rather than isolated fragment. Life-style segmentation begins with people instead of products and classifies them into different life-style types, each characterized by a unique style of living based on a wide range of activities, interests, and opinions(Plummer, 1974). In this study we applies the life-style segmentation based on the AIO(Activities, Interests, and Opinions) to the consumers of the large discount stores. In Korea, the large discount store market has entered into maturity stage so that the market differentiation strategy is becoming a more critical issue to the marketing practitioners. One of the most important tools to differentiate from the competitors in large discount store market is continuously to provide service of better quality than competitors. This study tries to find answers about the following questions: 1) How can we categorize the consumer life-styles in the large discount store? 2) What are the characteristics of the categorized groups? 3) Are there any differences in service quality perception among the consumers with different life-styles 4) Are there any differences in consumer behavior among them in the large discount store? For the purpose, we collected survey data from consumers and analyzed the data with the SPSS package where we had $X^2$-test, factor analysis, ANOVA, MANOVA, and cluster analysis. The survey was made during one month in the April of 2008. Among the collected 306 copies of questionnaires, 281 copies were chosen as the effective samples for empirical analysis except 25 copies with wrong responses. To identify the life-style patterns, we used the measures employed by Kim and Kwon(1999), where 44 items on a seven-point scale were used to measure factors of the life-style patterns. The Principal Component Method was used for factor extraction, and the VARIMAX orthogonal factor rotation was employed. The 7 items showing low factor loading were eliminated. The results of the factor analysis suggested that nine factors of the life-style patterns were identified as follows: 1) the equality-of-sexes and pursuit-of-independence tendency 2) self-management tendency 3) sociable tendency 4) self-display tendency 5) degree of a dilettante life 6) pursuit-of-information tendency 7) bargain hunter tendency 8) TV preference tendency 9) pursuit-of-leisure tendency. Next, after the K-means cluster analysis was performed with nine factors of the life-style patterns, the life-styles of the respondents were classified into four groups which are named as the 'progressive practicality-oriented group', 'positive success-oriented group', 'sociable ostentation-oriented group', 'stable conservation-oriented group'. The analysis results for usage behavior between the market segments showed statistically significant differences in the frequency of usage, duration time in the store, consumer satisfaction, and loyalty. Also, we tried to investigate whether the large discount store consumers differently perceive the quality of service based upon the types of life-style. To measure the service quality of large discount store, we adapted several measurement models measuring the service quality such as SERVPERF, BCP, R-SERVPERF, R-BCP. MANOVA and One-Way ANOVA were performed to confirm the difference in service quality perception based on the market segments. The results have also shown significant differences between life-style types in service quality perception. These findings show that the large discount store marketers should consider consumer life-style as one of the most important market segments for marketing and understand the difference in service quality perception between life-style types. Our findings give important implications to marketers of large discount stores as well as life-style researchers. First, this study showed there were significant differences in consumer's service quality perception and usage behavior between the types of life-style. It provides evidence that the life-style approach can be a important basis in segmenting the large discount store market and will make consumers perceive the service quality high. Second, most previous researches on service quality have been in aggregate level. However, our results imply that the future research on service quality have to focus on segment level.

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Mechanical Characteristics of the Rift, Grain and Hardway Planes in Jurassic Granites, Korea (쥬라기 화강암류에서 발달된 1번 면, 2번 면 및 3번 면의 역학적 특성)

  • Park, Deok-Won
    • Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.273-291
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    • 2020
  • The strength characteristics of the three orthogonal splitting planes, known as rift, grain and hardway planes in granite quarries, were examined. R, G and H specimens were obtained from the block samples of Jurassic granites in Geochang and Hapcheon areas. The directions of the long axes of these three specimens are perpendicular to each of the three planes. First, The chart, showing the scaling characteristics of three graphs related to the uniaxial compressive strengths of R, G and H specimens, were made. The graphs for the three specimens, along with the increase of strength, are arranged in the order of H < G < R. The angles of inclination of the graphs for the three specimens, suggesting the degree of uniformity of the texture within the specimen, were compared. The above angles for H specimens(θH, 24.0°~37.3°) are the lowest among the three specimens. Second, the scaling characteristics related to the three graphs of RG, GH and RH specimens, representing a combination of the mean compressive strengths of the two specimens, were derived. These three graphs, taking the various N-shaped forms, are arranged in the order of GH < RH < RG. Third, the correlation chart between the strength difference(Δσt) and the angle of inclination(θ) was made. The above two parameters show the correlation of the exponential function with an exponent(λ) of -0.003. In both granites, the angle of inclination(θRH) of the RH-graph is the lowest. Fourth, the six types of charts, showing the correlations among the three kinds of compressive strengths for the three specimens and the five parameters for the two sets of microcracks aligned parallel to the compressive load applied to each specimen, were made. From these charts for Geochang and Hapcheon granites, the mean value(0.877) of the correlation coefficients(R2) for total density(Lt), along with the frequency(N, 0.872) and density(ρ, 0.874), is the highest. In addition, the mean values(0.829) of correlation coefficients associated with the mean compressive strengths are more higher than the minimum(0.768) and maximum(0.804) compression strengths of three specimens. Fifth, the distributional characteristics of the Brazilian tensile strengths measured in directions parallel to the above two sets of microcracks in the three specimens from Geochang granite were derived. From the related chart, the three graphs for these tensile strengths corresponding to the R, G and H specimens show an order of H(R1+G1) < G(R2+H1) < R(R1+G1). The order of arrangement of the three graphs for the tensile strengths and that for the compressive strengths are mutually consistent. Therefore, the compressive strengths of the three specimens are proportional to the three types of tensile strengths. Sixth, the values of correlation coefficients, among the three tensile strengths corresponding to each cumulative number(N=1~10) from the above three graphs and the five parameters corresponding to each graph, were derived. The mean values of correlation coefficients for each parameter from the 10 correlation charts increase in the order of density(0.763) < total length(0.817) < frequency(0.839) < mean length(Lm, 0.901) ≤ median length(Lmed, 0.903). Seventh, the correlation charts among the compressive strengths and tensile strengths for the three specimens were made. The above correlation charts were divided into nine types based on the three kinds of compressive strengths and the five groups(A~E) of tensile strengths. From the related charts, as the tensile strength increases with the mean and maximum compressive strengths excluding the minimum compressive strength, the value of correlation coefficient increases rapidly.

Forecasting Substitution and Competition among Previous and New products using Choice-based Diffusion Model with Switching Cost: Focusing on Substitution and Competition among Previous and New Fixed Charged Broadcasting Services (전환 비용이 반영된 선택 기반 확산 모형을 통한 신.구 상품간 대체 및 경쟁 예측: 신.구 유료 방송서비스간 대체 및 경쟁 사례를 중심으로)

  • Koh, Dae-Young;Hwang, Jun-Seok;Oh, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.223-252
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.

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