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Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

Development and application of prediction model of hyperlipidemia using SVM and meta-learning algorithm (SVM과 meta-learning algorithm을 이용한 고지혈증 유병 예측모형 개발과 활용)

  • Lee, Seulki;Shin, Taeksoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to develop a classification model for predicting the occurrence of hyperlipidemia, one of the chronic diseases. Prior studies applying data mining techniques for predicting disease can be classified into a model design study for predicting cardiovascular disease and a study comparing disease prediction research results. In the case of foreign literatures, studies predicting cardiovascular disease were predominant in predicting disease using data mining techniques. Although domestic studies were not much different from those of foreign countries, studies focusing on hypertension and diabetes were mainly conducted. Since hypertension and diabetes as well as chronic diseases, hyperlipidemia, are also of high importance, this study selected hyperlipidemia as the disease to be analyzed. We also developed a model for predicting hyperlipidemia using SVM and meta learning algorithms, which are already known to have excellent predictive power. In order to achieve the purpose of this study, we used data set from Korea Health Panel 2012. The Korean Health Panel produces basic data on the level of health expenditure, health level and health behavior, and has conducted an annual survey since 2008. In this study, 1,088 patients with hyperlipidemia were randomly selected from the hospitalized, outpatient, emergency, and chronic disease data of the Korean Health Panel in 2012, and 1,088 nonpatients were also randomly extracted. A total of 2,176 people were selected for the study. Three methods were used to select input variables for predicting hyperlipidemia. First, stepwise method was performed using logistic regression. Among the 17 variables, the categorical variables(except for length of smoking) are expressed as dummy variables, which are assumed to be separate variables on the basis of the reference group, and these variables were analyzed. Six variables (age, BMI, education level, marital status, smoking status, gender) excluding income level and smoking period were selected based on significance level 0.1. Second, C4.5 as a decision tree algorithm is used. The significant input variables were age, smoking status, and education level. Finally, C4.5 as a decision tree algorithm is used. In SVM, the input variables selected by genetic algorithms consisted of 6 variables such as age, marital status, education level, economic activity, smoking period, and physical activity status, and the input variables selected by genetic algorithms in artificial neural network consist of 3 variables such as age, marital status, and education level. Based on the selected parameters, we compared SVM, meta learning algorithm and other prediction models for hyperlipidemia patients, and compared the classification performances using TP rate and precision. The main results of the analysis are as follows. First, the accuracy of the SVM was 88.4% and the accuracy of the artificial neural network was 86.7%. Second, the accuracy of classification models using the selected input variables through stepwise method was slightly higher than that of classification models using the whole variables. Third, the precision of artificial neural network was higher than that of SVM when only three variables as input variables were selected by decision trees. As a result of classification models based on the input variables selected through the genetic algorithm, classification accuracy of SVM was 88.5% and that of artificial neural network was 87.9%. Finally, this study indicated that stacking as the meta learning algorithm proposed in this study, has the best performance when it uses the predicted outputs of SVM and MLP as input variables of SVM, which is a meta classifier. The purpose of this study was to predict hyperlipidemia, one of the representative chronic diseases. To do this, we used SVM and meta-learning algorithms, which is known to have high accuracy. As a result, the accuracy of classification of hyperlipidemia in the stacking as a meta learner was higher than other meta-learning algorithms. However, the predictive performance of the meta-learning algorithm proposed in this study is the same as that of SVM with the best performance (88.6%) among the single models. The limitations of this study are as follows. First, various variable selection methods were tried, but most variables used in the study were categorical dummy variables. In the case with a large number of categorical variables, the results may be different if continuous variables are used because the model can be better suited to categorical variables such as decision trees than general models such as neural networks. Despite these limitations, this study has significance in predicting hyperlipidemia with hybrid models such as met learning algorithms which have not been studied previously. It can be said that the result of improving the model accuracy by applying various variable selection techniques is meaningful. In addition, it is expected that our proposed model will be effective for the prevention and management of hyperlipidemia.

Evaluation of the Fruit Quality Indices during Maturation and Ripening and the Influence of Short-term Temperature Management on Shelf-life during Simulated Exportation in 'Changjo' Pears (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai) (배 신품종 '창조'의 성숙 중 품질 요인 변화 및 수송온도 환경에 따른 반응성)

  • Lee, Ug-Yong;Choi, Jin-Ho;Ahn, Young-Jik;Chun, Jong-Pil
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.378-385
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we evaluated the changes of fruit quality indices during fruit development and ripening in Korean new pear cultivar 'Changjo', developed from a cross between 'Tama' and '81-1-27' ('Danbae' ${\times}$ 'Okusankichi') in 1995 and named in 2009, to determine appropriate harvest time and to enhance the market quality and broaden the cultivation area. The fruits of 'Changjo' pears harvested from 132 days after full bloom (DAFB) to 160 DAFB. Fruit growth and quality indices were monitored at 1 week interval by measuring fruit weight, length, diameter, firmness, and taste related quality indices. The calculated fruit fresh weight increased continuously with fruit development and reached to an average of 594g on Sep. 20 (160 DAFB). The ratio of length to diameter declines as fruit maturation progress, resulting in 0.898 for ripe fruit stage as a round oblate shape. Flesh firmness of 'Changjo' pears showed over 30N until 153 DAFB and then decreased abruptly with fruit ripening, reaching a final level of about 26.44N on 160 DAFB. Starch content of fruit sap was also decreased abruptly after 146 DAFB which decreased almost half of the fruits harvested at 139 DAFB. In parallel with the decrease of flesh firmness, ethanol insoluble solids (EIS) content decreased sharply with fruit ripens, only 50% of EIS was detected on the fruits harvested on 160 DAFB when compared to that of the fruits harvested on 139 DAFB (Aug. 30). The maximum value of soluble solids contents was observed in the fruits harvested on 153 DAFB, resulting in $14.2^{\circ}Brix$. The changes of skin color difference $a^*$ which means loss of green color occurred only after 139 DAFB, coincide with the decrease of SPAD value of the fruit skin. The sugars of the 80% ethanol soluble fraction consisted mainly of fructose, sorbitol, glucose and sucrose, also increased during maturation and ripening. Fructose and sucrose contents were larger than those of glucose and sorbitol in flesh tissues. These results were explained that stored starch is converted to soluble sugars during fruit maturation, mainly in fructose and sucrose increasing the sweetness of this cultivar. Total polyphenols were increased up to middle of fruit maturation (146 DAFB) and then decreased continuously until the end of fruit maturation. Consequently, our results suggested that the commercial harvest time of 'Changjo' pears should not be passed 153 DAFB and late harvest of this cultivar would not good for quality maintenance during shelf-life. As a result of the post-harvest low-temperature acclimation experiment during the short-term transportation period, fruits harvested at 146 DAFB tended to maintain higher firmness after 14 days of simulated marketing at $25^{\circ}C$ compared to fruits harvested at 153 DAFB regardless of temperature set. And, the slower the rate of decrease to the final transport temperature of $5^{\circ}C$, the higher the incidence of internal browning and ethylene production. Therefore, in order to suppress the physiological disorder and to maintain the fruit quality when exporting to Southeast Asia in the 'Chanjo' pears, it is desirable to lower the temperature of the fruits within a short time after harvest and to set the harvest time before 146 days after full bloom.

The Role of Control Transparency and Outcome Feedback on Security Protection in Online Banking (계좌 이용 과정과 결과의 투명성이 온라인 뱅킹 이용자의 보안 인식에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Un-Kon;Choi, Ji Eun;Lee, Ho Geun
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.75-97
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    • 2012
  • Fostering trusting belief in financial transactions is a challenging task in Internet banking services. Authenticated Certificate had been regarded as an effective method to guarantee the trusting belief for online transactions. However, previous research claimed that this method has some loopholes for such abusers as hackers, who intend to attack the financial accounts of innocent transactors in Internet. Two types of methods have been suggested as alternatives for securing user identification and activity in online financial services. Control transparency uses information over the transaction process to verify and to control the transactions. Outcome feedback, which refers to the specific information about exchange outcomes, provides information over final transaction results. By using these two methods, financial service providers can send signals to involved parties about the robustness of their security mechanisms. These two methods-control transparency and outcome feedback-have been widely used in the IS field to enhance the quality of IS services. In this research, we intend to verify that these two methods can also be used to reduce risks and to increase the security protections in online banking services. The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the effects of the control transparency and the outcome feedback on the risk perceptions in Internet banking services. Our assumption is that these two methods-control transparency and outcome feedback-can reduce perceived risks involved with online financial transactions, while increasing perceived trust over financial service providers. These changes in user attitudes can increase the level of user satisfactions, which may lead to the increased user loyalty as well as users' willingness to pay for the financial transactions. Previous research in IS suggested that the increased level of transparency on the process and the result of transactions can enhance the information quality and decision quality of IS users. Transparency helps IS users to acquire the information needed to control the transaction counterpart and thus to complete transaction successfully. It is also argued that transparency can reduce the perceived transaction risks in IS usage. Many IS researchers also argued that the trust can be generated by the institutional mechanisms. Trusting belief refers to the truster's belief for the trustee to have attributes for being beneficial to the truster. Institution-based trust plays an important role to enhance the probability of achieving a successful outcome. When a transactor regards the conditions crucial for the transaction success, he or she considers the condition providers as trustful, and thus eventually trust the others involved with such condition providers. In this process, transparency helps the transactor complete the transaction successfully. Through the investigation of these studies, we expect that the control transparency and outcome feedback can reduce the risk perception on transaction and enhance the trust with the service provider. Based on a theoretical framework of transparency and institution-based trust, we propose and test a research model by evaluating research hypotheses. We have conducted a laboratory experiment in order to validate our research model. Since the transparency artifact(control transparency and outcome feedback) is not yet adopted in online banking services, the general survey method could not be employed to verify our research model. We collected data from 138 experiment subjects who had experiences with online banking services. PLS is used to analyze the experiment data. The measurement model confirms that our data set has appropriate convergent and discriminant validity. The results of testing the structural model indicate that control transparency significantly enhances the trust and significantly reduces the risk perception of online banking users. The result also suggested that the outcome feedback significantly enhances the trust of users. We have found that the reduced risk and the increased trust level significantly improve the level of service satisfaction. The increased satisfaction finally leads to the increased loyalty and willingness to pay for the financial services.

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Application of MicroPACS Using the Open Source (Open Source를 이용한 MicroPACS의 구성과 활용)

  • You, Yeon-Wook;Kim, Yong-Keun;Kim, Yeong-Seok;Won, Woo-Jae;Kim, Tae-Sung;Kim, Seok-Ki
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: Recently, most hospitals are introducing the PACS system and use of the system continues to expand. But small-scaled PACS called MicroPACS has already been in use through open source programs. The aim of this study is to prove utility of operating a MicroPACS, as a substitute back-up device for conventional storage media like CDs and DVDs, in addition to the full-PACS already in use. This study contains the way of setting up a MicroPACS with open source programs and assessment of its storage capability, stability, compatibility and performance of operations such as "retrieve", "query". Materials and Methods: 1. To start with, we searched open source software to correspond with the following standards to establish MicroPACS, (1) It must be available in Windows Operating System. (2) It must be free ware. (3) It must be compatible with PET/CT scanner. (4) It must be easy to use. (5) It must not be limited of storage capacity. (6) It must have DICOM supporting. 2. (1) To evaluate availability of data storage, we compared the time spent to back up data in the open source software with the optical discs (CDs and DVD-RAMs), and we also compared the time needed to retrieve data with the system and with optical discs respectively. (2) To estimate work efficiency, we measured the time spent to find data in CDs, DVD-RAMs and MicroPACS. 7 technologists participated in this study. 3. In order to evaluate stability of the software, we examined whether there is a data loss during the system is maintained for a year. Comparison object; How many errors occurred in randomly selected data of 500 CDs. Result: 1. We chose the Conquest DICOM Server among 11 open source software used MySQL as a database management system. 2. (1) Comparison of back up and retrieval time (min) showed the result of the following: DVD-RAM (5.13,2.26)/Conquest DICOM Server (1.49,1.19) by GE DSTE (p<0.001), CD (6.12,3.61)/Conquest (0.82,2.23) by GE DLS (p<0.001), CD (5.88,3.25)/Conquest (1.05,2.06) by SIEMENS. (2) The wasted time (sec) to find some data is as follows: CD ($156{\pm}46$), DVD-RAM ($115{\pm}21$) and Conquest DICOM Server ($13{\pm}6$). 3. There was no data loss (0%) for a year and it was stored 12741 PET/CT studies in 1.81 TB memory. In case of CDs, On the other hand, 14 errors among 500 CDs (2.8%) is generated. Conclusions: We found that MicroPACS could be set up with the open source software and its performance was excellent. The system built with open source proved more efficient and more robust than back-up process using CDs or DVD-RAMs. We believe that the operation of the MicroPACS would be effective data storage device as long as its operators develop and systematize it.

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A study on The U.S.-Korean Trade Friction Prevention and Settlement in the Fields of Information and Telecommunication Industries (한미간(韓美間) 정보통신분야(情報通信分野) 통상마찰예방(通商摩擦豫防)과 해소방안(解消方案)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Jung, Jay-Young
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.13
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    • pp.869-895
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    • 2000
  • The US supports the Information and Communication (IC) industry as a strategic one to wield a complete power over the World Market. However, several other countries are also eager to have the support for the IC industry because the industry produces a high added value and has a significant effect on other industries. Korea is not an exception. Korea recently succeeded in the commercialization of CDMA for the first time in the world, after the successful development of TDX. Hence, it is highly likely to get tracked by the US. Although the IC industry is a specific sector of IT, there is a concern that there might be a trade friction between the US and Korea due to a possible competition. It will be very important to prepare a solution in advance so that Korea could prevent the friction and at the same time increase its share domestically and globally. It will be our important task to solve the problem with the minimum cost if the conflict arises unfortunately in the IT area. The parties that have a strong influence on the US trade policy are the think tank group and the IT-related interest group. Therefore, it would be important to have a close relationship with them. We found some implications by analyzing the case of Japan, which has experienced trade frictions with the US over the long period of time in the high tech industry. In order to get rid of those conflicts with the US, the Japanese did the following things : (1) The Japanese government developed supporting theories and also resorted to international support so that the world could support the Japanese theories. (2) Through continual dialogue with the US business people, the Japanese business people sought after solutions to share profits among the Japanese and the US both in the domestic and in the worldwide markets. They focused on lobbying activities to influence the US public opinion to support the Japanese. The specific implementation plan was first to open culture lobby toward opinion leaders who were leaders about the US opinion. The institution, Japan Society, were formed to deliver a high quality lobbying activities. The second plan is economic lobby. They have established Japanese Economic Institute at Washington. They provide information about Japan regularly or irregularly to the US government, research institution, universities, etc., that are interested in Japan. The main objective behind these activities though is to advertise the validity of Japanese policy. Japanese top executives, practical interest groups on international trade, are trying to justify their position by direct contact with the US policy makers. The third one is political lobby. Japan is very careful about this political lobby. It is doing its best not to give impression that Japan is trying to shape the US policy making. It is collecting a vast amount of information to make a correct judgment on situation. It is not tilted toward one political party or the other, and is rather developing a long-term network of people who understand and support the Japanese policy. The following implications were drawn from the experience of Japan. First, the Korean government should develop a long-term plan and execute it to improve the Korean image perceived by American people. Second, the Korean government should begin public relation activities toward the US elite group. It is inevitable to make an effort to advertise Korea to this elite group because this group leads public opinion in the USA. Third, the Korean government needs the development of a relevant policy to elevate the positive atmosphere for advertising toward the US. For example, we need information about to whom and how to about lobbying activities, personnel network who immediately respond to wrong articles about Korea in the US press, and lastly the most recent data bank of Korean support group inside the USA. Fourth, the Korean government should create an atmosphere to facilitate the advertising toward the US. Examples include provision of incentives in tax on the expenses for the advertising toward the US and provision of rewards to those who significantly contribute to the advertising activities. Fifth, the Korean government should perform the role of a bridge between Korean and the US business people. Sixth, the government should promptly analyze the policy of IT industry, a strategic area, and timely distribute information to industries in Korea. Since the Korean government is the only institution that has formal contact with the US government, it is highly likely to provide information of a high quality. The followings are some implications for business institutions. First, Korean business organization should carefully analyze and observe the business policy and managerial conditions of US companies. It is very important to do so because all the trade frictions arise at the business level. Second, it is also very important that the top management of Korean firms contact the opinion leaders of the US. Third, it is critically needed that Korean business people sent to the USA do their part for PR activities. Fourth, it is very important to advertise to American employees in Korean companies. If we cannot convince our American employees, it would be a lot harder to convince regular American. Therefore, it is very important to make the American employees the support group for Korean ways. Fifth, it should try to get much information as early as possible about the US firms policy in the IT area. It should give an enormous effort on early collection of information because by doing so it has more time to respond. Sixth, it should research on the PR cases of foreign enterprise or non-American companies inside the USA. The research needs to identify the success factors and the failure factors. Finally, the business firm will get more valuable information if it analyzes and responds to, according to each medium.

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An Analysis of the Psychiatric Characteristics of the Alopecia Areata in Female (여성 탈모증의 정신의학적 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Kil-Hong;Na, Chul;Lee, Young-Sik;Lee, Chang-Hoon;No, Byung-In;Hong, Chang-Kwon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.31-45
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    • 2000
  • Objectives : The present study was performed to reveal differences between female and male cases of alopecia in their alopecia related variables such as patterns of hair loss, psychiatric characteristics, associate illnesses, and methods of treatment, and to use them as basic materials for proper management and early prevention of the alopecia prone cases. Methods : In order to analysis the gender difference in hair losses, the subjects were divided into two subgroups as the 51 cases of female alopecia and the 42 cases of male alopecia, who had visited to the department of psychiatry consulted from the department of dermatology, Yongsan hopital, ChungAng University, Seoul, Korea, from January 1998 to December 1998. In data analysis, the subjects were statistically assesed by chi-squre test and analysis of varaiance, through SPSS-$PC^+$ 9.0V. Results : 1) Female subjects were more likely showed lower socio-economical level including lower eonomical level, lower educational level, or lower occupational level in their parent's job, were more likely to have larger number of siblings and to have many sisters comparison to the male cases. 2) Female subjects were more likely visited to the department of dermatology, more history of alopecia in their female family members, lesser history of alopecia in their male family members, more loss of hairs in vertex or frontal region of scalp, lesser loss of hairs in occipital region, and lesser nail changes in comparison to the male cases. 3) Female subjects were more suffered from intra-familial conflicts and economical changes, or their introverted personality makeup, lesser likely suffered from changes of business and health changes, and showed lesser conflicts related with poorer adaptaion in their job life. 4) Female subjects were more likely diagnosed as depression or conversion disorders, more frequently complaint anxiety symptoms or depressive symptoms, higher level of anxiety index, lesser complaint somatization or obsessive compulsive symptoms, and lesser diagnosed as anxiety disorder in comparison to the male cases. 5) Female subjects were more likely tended to show personality makeup such as the introverted, the lie, the repressed, or the feminine trends than the male cases. 6) Female subjects were more significantly treated by antianxiety drug such as etizolam and dermatological therapies include tretinoin, and lesser treated by clotiazepam and prednicarbonate in comparison to the male cases. Conclusion : From the facts that The most important factors in developing hair loss in the female subjects in comparison to the male cases seems to be closely correlated with the serious psychopathology such as the presence of mental disorders including depression, the presence of complaining anxiety or depressive symptomatology, the presence of stressful life events such as intrafamilial life changes, and the presence of personality makeup such as the introverted, the lie, the repressed, or the feminine trends, the authors confirmed that dermatologists act as the primary care physician are in a unique position to recognize psychiatric comorbidity and execute meaningful intervention for female patients with the alopecia with psychiatrists.

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『황제내경소문(黃帝內經素問)·칠편대론(七篇大論)』 왕빙 주본(注本)을 통(通)한 운기학설(運氣學說) 관(關)한 연구(硏究)

  • Kim, Gi-Uk;Park, Hyeon-Guk
    • The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
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    • v.4
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    • pp.109-140
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    • 1995
  • As we considered in the main subjects, investigations on the theory of 'Doctrine on five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors(運氣學說)' through 'Wang Bing's Commentary(王氷 注本)' of 'The seven great chapters in The Yellow Emperor's Internal Classic Su Wen' ("黃帝內經素問 七篇大論") are as follows. (1) In The seven great chapters("七篇大論")' Wang Bing supplement theory and in the academic aspects as a interpreter, judging from 'forget(亡)' character. expressed in the 'The missing chapters("素問遺篇")', 'Bonbyung-ron("本病論")' and 'Jabeob-ron(刺法論)', 'The seven great chapters("七篇大論")' must be supplementary work by Wang Bing. Besides, he quoted such forty books as medical books, taoist books, confucianist books, miscellaneous books, etc in the commentary and the contents quoted in the 'Su Wen(素問)' and 'Ling Shu("靈樞")' scripture nearly occupy in the book. As a method of interpreting scripiure as scripture, he edited the order of 'Internal Classic("內經")' ascended from the ancient time and when he compensated for commentary, with exhaustive scholarly mind and by observing the natural phenomena practically and writing the pathology and the methods of treatment. We knew that the book is combined with the study of 'Doctrine on five elements motion and six kinds of natural factors(運氣學說)' (2) When we compare, analyze the similar phrase of 'The seven great chapters in The Yellow Emperor's Internal Classic Su Wen'("黃帝內經素問ㆍ七篇大論") through 'Wang Bing's Commentary(王氷 注本)', he tells abouts organized 'five elements(五行)' and 'heaven's regularly movement(天道運行)' rather than 'Emyangengsangdae-ron("陰陽應象大論")' in 'The seven great chapters("七篇大論")'. Also the 'Ohanunhangdae-ron("五運行大論")' because the repeated sentences with 'Emyangengsangdae-ron("陰陽應象大論")' is long they are omitted. And in the 'Youkmijidae-ron("六微旨大論")', 'Cheonjin ideology(天眞四象)' based on the 'Sanggocheonjin- ron("上古天眞論")', 'Sagijosindae-ron("四氣調神大論")' is written and in the 'Gigoupyondae-ron("氣交變大論")', the syndrome and symptom are explained in detail rather than 'Janggibeobsi-ron("藏氣法時論")', 'Okgijinjang-ron ("玉機眞藏論")' and in the 'Osangieongdae-ron("五常政大論")', the concept of 'five element(五行)' of the 'Gemgwejineon-ron("金櫃眞言論")' is expanded to 'the five elements' motion concept(五運槪念)' and in the 'Youkwonjeonggidae-ron("六元正紀大論")', explanations of 'The five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors(運氣)' function are mentioned mainly and instead systematic pathology is not revealed rather than 'Emyangengsangdae-ron("陰陽應象大論")'. And in the 'Jijinyodae-ron("至眞要大論")', explanations of the change of atmosphere which correspond to treatment principle by 'The three Yin and Yang(三陰三陽)' as a progressed concepts are revealed. Therefore there are much similarity between the phrase of 'Emyangengsangdae-ron("陰陽應象大論")' and 'chapters of addition(補缺之篇)'. Generally, the doctrine which 'The seven great chapters("七篇大論")' are added by Wang Bing(王氷) is supported because there are more profound concepts rather than the other chapter in 'The seven great chapters("七篇大論")'. (3) When we study Wang Bing's(王氷) 'Pattern on five elements motion and six kinds of natural factors(運氣格局)' in 'The seven great chapter("七篇大論")', in the 'Cheonwongi-dae-ron("天元紀大論")', With 'Cheonjin ideology(天眞思想)' and the concepts of 'Owang(旺)'${\cdot}$'Sang(相)'${\cdot}$'Sa(死)'${\cdot}$'Su(囚)'${\cdot}$'Hu(休)' and 'Cheonbu(天符)'${\cdot}$'Sehwoi(歲會)' are measured time-spacially to the concept of 'Three Sum(三合)' the concept of 'Taeulcheonbu(太乙天符)' is explained. In the 'Ounhangdae-ron("五運行大論")', 'The calender Signs five Sum(天干五合)' is compared to the concepts of 'couples(夫婦)', 'weak-strong(柔强)' and in the 'Youkmijidae-ron("六微旨大論")', 'the relationship of obedience and disobedience(順逆關係)' which conform to the 'energy status(氣位)' change and 'monarch-minister(君相)' position is mentioned. In the 'Gikyobyeondae-ron("氣交變大論")', the concept of 'Sang-duk(相得)', 'Pyungsang(平常)' is emphasized but concrete measurement is mentioned. In the 'Osangieongdae-ron("五常政大論")', the detailed explanation with twenty three 'systemic of the five elements' motion(五運體系)' form and 'rountine-contrary treatment(正治. 反治)' with 'chill-fever-warm-cold(寒${\cdot}$${\cdot}$${\cdot}$凉)' are mentioned according to the 'analyse and differentiate pathological conditions in accordance with the eight principal syndromes(八綱辨證)'. In the 'Youkwonjeonggidae-ron("六元正紀大論")', Wang Bing of doesn't mention the concepts of 'Jungwun(中運)' that is seen in the original classic. In the new corrective edition, as the concepts of 'Jungwun, Dongcheonbu, Dongsehae and Taeulcheonbu(中運, 同天符, 同歲會, 太乙天符)' is appeared, Wang Bing seems to only use the concepts of 'Daewun, Juwun, and Gaekwun(大運, 主運, 客運)'. In the 'Jijinyodaeron("至眞要大論")', Wang Bing added detailed commentary to pathology and treatment doctrine by explaining the numerous appearances of 'Sebo, sufficiency, deficiency(歲步, 有餘, 不足)' and in the relation of 'victory-defeat(勝復)', he argued clearly that it is not mechanical estimation. (4) When we observe the Wang Bing's originality on the study of 'the theory of Doctrine on five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors(運氣學說)', he emphasized 'The idea of Jeongindogi and Health preserving(全眞導氣${\cdot}$養生思想)' by adding 'Wang Bing's Commentary(王氷 注本)' of 'The seven great chapters("七篇大論")' and explained clearly 'The theory of Doctrine on five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors(運氣學說)' and simpled and expanded the meaning of 'man, as a microcosm, is connected with the macrocosm(天人相應)' and with 'Atmosphere theory(大氣論)' also explained the meaning of 'rising and falling mechanism(升降氣機)'. In the sentence of 'By examining the pathology, take care of your health(審察病機 無失氣宜)'. he explained the meaning of pathology of 'heart-kidney-water-fire(心腎水火)' and suggested the doctrine and management of prescription. In the estimation and treatment, by suggesting 'asthenia and sthenia(虛實)' two method's estimation, 'contrary treatment(反治)' and treatment principals of 'falling heart fire tonifyng kidney water(降心火益腎水)', 'two class of chill and fever(寒熱二綱)' were demonstrated. There are 'inside and outside in the illness and so inner and outer in the treatment(病有中外 治有表囊)'. This sentence suggests concertedly. 'two class of superfies and interior(表囊二綱)' conforming to the position of disease. Therefore Wang Bing as an excellent theorist and introduced 'Cheoniin ideology(天眞思想)' as a clinician and realized the medical science. With these accomplishes mainly written in 'The theory of Doctrine on five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors(運氣學說)' of 'The seven great chapters("七篇大論")', he interpreted the ancient medical scriptures and expanded the meaning of scriptures and conclusively contributed to the development of the study 'Korean Oriental Medicine(韓醫學)'.

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Differential Effects of Recovery Efforts on Products Attitudes (제품태도에 대한 회복노력의 차별적 효과)

  • Kim, Cheon-GIl;Choi, Jung-Mi
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.33-58
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    • 2008
  • Previous research has presupposed that the evaluation of consumer who received any recovery after experiencing product failure should be better than the evaluation of consumer who did not receive any recovery. The major purposes of this article are to examine impacts of product defect failures rather than service failures, and to explore effects of recovery on postrecovery product attitudes. First, this article deals with the occurrence of severe and unsevere failure and corresponding service recovery toward tangible products rather than intangible services. Contrary to intangible services, purchase and usage are separable for tangible products. This difference makes it clear that executing an recovery strategy toward tangible products is not plausible right after consumers find out product failures. The consumers may think about backgrounds and causes for the unpleasant events during the time gap between product failure and recovery. The deliberation may dilutes positive effects of recovery efforts. The recovery strategies which are provided to consumers experiencing product failures can be classified into three types. A recovery strategy can be implemented to provide consumers with a new product replacing the old defective product, a complimentary product for free, a discount at the time of the failure incident, or a coupon that can be used on the next visit. This strategy is defined as "a rewarding effort." Meanwhile a product failure may arise in exchange for its benefit. Then the product provider can suggest a detail explanation that the defect is hard to escape since it relates highly to the specific advantage to the product. The strategy may be called as "a strengthening effort." Another possible strategy is to recover negative attitude toward own brand by giving prominence to the disadvantages of a competing brand rather than the advantages of its own brand. The strategy is reflected as "a weakening effort." This paper emphasizes that, in order to confirm its effectiveness, a recovery strategy should be compared to being nothing done in response to the product failure. So the three types of recovery efforts is discussed in comparison to the situation involving no recovery effort. The strengthening strategy is to claim high relatedness of the product failure with another advantage, and expects the two-sidedness to ease consumers' complaints. The weakening strategy is to emphasize non-aversiveness of product failure, even if consumers choose another competitive brand. The two strategies can be effective in restoring to the original state, by providing plausible motives to accept the condition of product failure or by informing consumers of non-responsibility in the failure case. However the two may be less effective strategies than the rewarding strategy, since it tries to take care of the rehabilitation needs of consumers. Especially, the relative effect between the strengthening effort and the weakening effort may differ in terms of the severity of the product failure. A consumer who realizes a highly severe failure is likely to attach importance to the property which caused the failure. This implies that the strengthening effort would be less effective under the condition of high product severity. Meanwhile, the failing property is not diagnostic information in the condition of low failure severity. Consumers would not pay attention to non-diagnostic information, and with which they are not likely to change their attitudes. This implies that the strengthening effort would be more effective under the condition of low product severity. A 2 (product failure severity: high or low) X 4 (recovery strategies: rewarding, strengthening, weakening, or doing nothing) between-subjects design was employed. The particular levels of product failure severity and the types of recovery strategies were determined after a series of expert interviews. The dependent variable was product attitude after the recovery effort was provided. Subjects were 284 consumers who had an experience of cosmetics. Subjects were first given a product failure scenario and were asked to rate the comprehensibility of the failure scenario, the probability of raising complaints against the failure, and the subjective severity of the failure. After a recovery scenario was presented, its comprehensibility and overall evaluation were measured. The subjects assigned to the condition of no recovery effort were exposed to a short news article on the cosmetic industry. Next, subjects answered filler questions: 42 items of the need for cognitive closure and 16 items of need-to-evaluate. In the succeeding page a subject's product attitude was measured on an five-item, six-point scale, and a subject's repurchase intention on an three-item, six-point scale. After demographic variables of age and sex were asked, ten items of the subject's objective knowledge was checked. The results showed that the subjects formed more favorable evaluations after receiving rewarding efforts than after receiving either strengthening or weakening efforts. This is consistent with Hoffman, Kelley, and Rotalsky (1995) in that a tangible service recovery could be more effective that intangible efforts. Strengthening and weakening efforts also were effective compared to no recovery effort. So we found that generally any recovery increased products attitudes. The results hint us that a recovery strategy such as strengthening or weakening efforts, although it does not contain a specific reward, may have an effect on consumers experiencing severe unsatisfaction and strong complaint. Meanwhile, strengthening and weakening efforts were not expected to increase product attitudes under the condition of low severity of product failure. We can conclude that only a physical recovery effort may be recognized favorably as a firm's willingness to recover its fault by consumers experiencing low involvements. Results of the present experiment are explained in terms of the attribution theory. This article has a limitation that it utilized fictitious scenarios. Future research deserves to test a realistic effect of recovery for actual consumers. Recovery involves a direct, firsthand experience of ex-users. Recovery does not apply to non-users. The experience of receiving recovery efforts can be relatively more salient and accessible for the ex-users than for non-users. A recovery effort might be more likely to improve product attitude for the ex-users than for non-users. Also the present experiment did not include consumers who did not have an experience of the products and who did not perceive the occurrence of product failure. For the non-users and the ignorant consumers, the recovery efforts might lead to decreased product attitude and purchase intention. This is because the recovery trials may give an opportunity for them to notice the product failure.

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Application of Support Vector Regression for Improving the Performance of the Emotion Prediction Model (감정예측모형의 성과개선을 위한 Support Vector Regression 응용)

  • Kim, Seongjin;Ryoo, Eunchung;Jung, Min Kyu;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2012
  • .Since the value of information has been realized in the information society, the usage and collection of information has become important. A facial expression that contains thousands of information as an artistic painting can be described in thousands of words. Followed by the idea, there has recently been a number of attempts to provide customers and companies with an intelligent service, which enables the perception of human emotions through one's facial expressions. For example, MIT Media Lab, the leading organization in this research area, has developed the human emotion prediction model, and has applied their studies to the commercial business. In the academic area, a number of the conventional methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied to predict human emotion in prior studies. However, MRA is generally criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. This is inevitable since MRA can only explain the linear relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variable. To mitigate the limitations of MRA, some studies like Jung and Kim (2012) have used ANN as the alternative, and they reported that ANN generated more accurate prediction than the statistical methods like MRA. However, it has also been criticized due to over fitting and the difficulty of the network design (e.g. setting the number of the layers and the number of the nodes in the hidden layers). Under this background, we propose a novel model using Support Vector Regression (SVR) in order to increase the prediction accuracy. SVR is an extensive version of Support Vector Machine (SVM) designated to solve the regression problems. The model produced by SVR only depends on a subset of the training data, because the cost function for building the model ignores any training data that is close (within a threshold ${\varepsilon}$) to the model prediction. Using SVR, we tried to build a model that can measure the level of arousal and valence from the facial features. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected the data of facial reactions when providing appropriate visual stimulating contents, and extracted the features from the data. Next, the steps of the preprocessing were taken to choose statistically significant variables. In total, 297 cases were used for the experiment. As the comparative models, we also applied MRA and ANN to the same data set. For SVR, we adopted '${\varepsilon}$-insensitive loss function', and 'grid search' technique to find the optimal values of the parameters like C, d, ${\sigma}^2$, and ${\varepsilon}$. In the case of ANN, we adopted a standard three-layer backpropagation network, which has a single hidden layer. The learning rate and momentum rate of ANN were set to 10%, and we used sigmoid function as the transfer function of hidden and output nodes. We performed the experiments repeatedly by varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer to n/2, n, 3n/2, and 2n, where n is the number of the input variables. The stopping condition for ANN was set to 50,000 learning events. And, we used MAE (Mean Absolute Error) as the measure for performance comparison. From the experiment, we found that SVR achieved the highest prediction accuracy for the hold-out data set compared to MRA and ANN. Regardless of the target variables (the level of arousal, or the level of positive / negative valence), SVR showed the best performance for the hold-out data set. ANN also outperformed MRA, however, it showed the considerably lower prediction accuracy than SVR for both target variables. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to the researchers or practitioners who are willing to build the models for recognizing human emotions.