• Title/Summary/Keyword: optimal estimation

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Modeling of the Failure Rates and Estimation of the Economical Replacement Time of Water Mains Based on an Individual Pipe Identification Method (개별관로 정의 방법을 이용한 상수관로 파손율 모형화 및 경제적 교체시기의 산정)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Lee, Hyeong-Seok;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Kyu-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.525-535
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    • 2009
  • In this paper a heuristic method for identifying individual pipes in water pipe networks to determine specific sections of the pipes that need to be replaced due to deterioration. An appropriate minimum pipe length is determined by selecting the pipe length that has the greatest variance of the average cumulative break number slopes among the various pipe lengths used. As a result, the minimum pipe length for the case study water network is determined as 4 m and a total of 39 individual pipe IDs are obtained. The economically optimal replacement times of the individual pipe IDs are estimated by using the threshold break rate of an individual pipe ID and the pipe break trends models for which the General Pipe Break Prediction Model(Park and Loganathan, 2002) that can incorporate the linear, exponential, and in-between of the linear and exponetial failure trends and the ROCOFs based on the modified time scale(Park et al., 2007) are used. The maximum log-likelihoods of the log-linear ROCOF and Weibull ROCOF estimated for the break data of a pipe are compared and the ROCOF that has a greater likelihood is selected for the pipe of interest. The effects of the social costs of a pipe break on the optimal replacement time are also discussed.

Estimation of Optimal Stocking Rate of Earthworm Populations (지렁이 개체군의 최적 사육밀도 추정)

  • Lee, Ju-Sam;Noh, Jin-Hwan;Park, Sang-Soo;Lee, Hee-Choong
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.369-383
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    • 2012
  • This experiment was carried out to investigate the optimal stocking rate of earthworm populations grown under different stocking rates. The stocking rate in terms of ratio of biomass of earthworms to biomass of feeds(organic resources) is an important factors for biomass productivity of earthworms and vermicast production. The different stocking rates were 1:16(S-1), 1:32(S-2), 1:48(S-3) and 1:64(S-4), as the ratios of biomass of earthworm to biomass of organic dairy cow manure, respectively. The stocking rate of 1:32(S-2) and 1:46(S-3) were obtained a higher values on increasing rates and conversion efficiency of organic matter to earthworm biomass than other stocking rates. Thus, a stocking rates of 1:32 and 1:46 estimated an optimal stocking rates for maximum biomass productivity of earthworms. A stocking rate of 1:16(S-1) showed a significantly highest values of vermicast production and ratios of vermicasts during the rearing periods.($$P{\leq_-}0.05$$) A stocking rate of 1:48(S-3) showed a highest values of the number of cocoons and vermicasts production per earthworm biomass among the treatment ($$P{\leq_-}0.05$$) The contents of nitrogen, available phosphorus, cation exchange capacity and exchangeable cations of vermicasts tended to increase with stocking rate and rearing progressed. Vermicasts have a great deal of potential for crop production and protection in sustainable organic cropping systems.

Estimation of Optimal Ecological Flowrate of Fish in Chogang Stream (초강천에서 어류의 최적 생태유량 산정)

  • Hur, Jun Wook;Kim, Dae Hee;Kang, Hyeongsik
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2014
  • In order to establish fundamental data for stream restoration and environmental flow, we investigated optimal ecological flowrate (OEF) and riverine health condition in the Chogang Stream, a tributary to Geum River, Korea. The number of fish individuals sampled in this period were 4,669 in 36 species of 9 families. The most abundant species was Korean chub (Zacco koreanus, 34.0%) followed by pale chub (Z. platypus, 22.6%) and Korean shinner (Coreoleuciscus splendidus, 13.3%). Index of biological integrity (IBI) and qualitative habitat evaluation index (QHEI) values decreased from upstream to downstream along the stream. The estimated IBI value ranged from 27.9 to 38.6 with average 32.2 out of 50, rendering the site ecologically fair to good health conditions. OEF was estimated by the physical habitat simulation system (PHABSIM) using the habitat suitability indexes (HSI) of three fish species Z. koreanus, C. splendidus and Pseudopungtungia nigra selected as indicator species. In Z. koreanus, HSI for flow velocity and water depth were estimated at 0.1 to 0.4 m/s and 0.2 to 0.4 m, respectively. In P. nigra, HSI for flow velocity, water depth and substrate size were estimated at 0.2 to 0.5 m/s and 0.4 to 0.6 m and fine gravel to cobbles, respectively. OEF values increasing from up to downstream was found to increase, weighted usable area (WUA) values increased accordingly.

Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Life Cycle of Mixed Construction Waste Treatment Routes (혼합 건설폐기물 처리경로별 전과정 온실가스 발생량 평가)

  • Kim, Da-Yeon;Hwang, Yong-Woo;Kang, Hong-Yoon;Moon, Jin-Young
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.56-64
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    • 2022
  • Construction waste is generated at a rate of approximately 221,102 tons/day in Korea. In particular, mixed construction waste generates approximately 24,582 tons/day. The other components were recycled by 98.9%. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions from the waste was 17.1 million tons of CO2 equaling 2.3% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reducing the environmental impact is becoming increasingly important. However, appropriate treatment must first be established, as mixed construction waste is also increasing. Thus, an effective plan is urgently needed because it is frequently segregated and sorted by the landfill and incinerated. In addition, there is an urgent need to prepare various effective recycling methods rather than a simple treatment. Therefore, this study analyzed the environmental impact of the treatment of mixed construction waste by calculating greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, the highest greenhouse gas generation occurred during the incineration stage. Moreover, the optimal method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is recycling and energy recovery from waste. In addition, the amount of greenhouse gas generated during energy recovery from the waste stage was the second highest. However, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by using waste as energy to reduce fossil fuel consumption. In addition, for the transportation stage, the optimal reduction plan is to minimize the amount of greenhouse gas emissions by setting the optimal distance and applying biofuel and electric vehicle operations.

Folding Analysis of Paper Structure and Estimation of Optimal Collision Conditions for Reversal (종이구조물의 접기해석과 반전을 위한 최적충돌조건의 산정)

  • Gye-Hee Lee
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 2023
  • This paper presents a model simulating the folding process and collision dynamics of "ddakji", a traditional Korean game played using paper tiles (which are also referred to as ddakji). The model uses two A4 sheets as the base materials for ddakji. The folding process involves a series of boundary conditions that transform the wing part of the paper structure into a twisted configuration. A rigid plate boundary condition is also adopted for squeezing, establishing the shape and stress state of the game-ready ddakji through dynamic relaxation analysis. The gaming process analysis involves a forced displacement of the striking ddakji to a predetermined collision position. Collision analysis then follows at a given speed, with the objective of overturning the struck ddakji--a winning condition. A genetic algorithm-based optimization analysis identifies the optimal collision conditions that result in the overturning of the struck ddakji. For efficiency, the collision analysis is divided into two stages, with the second stage carried out only if the first stage predicts a possible overturn. The fitness function for the genetic algorithm during the first stage is the direction cosine of the struck ddakji, whereas in the second stage, it is the inverse of the speed, thus targeting the lowest overall collision speed. Consequently, this analysis provides optimal collision conditions for various compression thicknesses.

Multi-objective Genetic Algorism Model for Determining an Optimal Capital Structure of Privately-Financed Infrastructure Projects (민간투자사업의 최적 자본구조 결정을 위한 다목적 유전자 알고리즘 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Sungmin;Han, Seung Heon;Kim, Du Yon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.1D
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2008
  • Private financing is playing an increasing role in public infrastructure construction projects worldwide. However, private investors/operators are exposed to the financial risk of low profitability due to the inaccurate estimation of facility demand, operation income, maintenance costs, etc. From the operator's perspective, a sound and thorough financial feasibility study is required to establish the appropriate capital structure of a project. Operators tend to reduce the equity amount to minimize the level of risk exposure, while creditors persist to raise it, in an attempt to secure a sufficient level of financial involvement from the operators. Therefore, it is important for creditors and operators to reach an agreement for a balanced capital structure that synthetically considers both profitability and repayment capacity. This paper presents an optimal capital structure model for successful private infrastructure investment. This model finds the optimized point where the profitability is balanced with the repayment capacity, with the use of the concept of utility function and multi-objective GA (Generic Algorithm)-based optimization. A case study is presented to show the validity of the model and its verification. The research conclusions provide a proper capital structure for privately-financed infrastructure projects through a proposed multi-objective model.

The Estimation on the Optimal Size of Self-employed in Korea using OECD Data: Focusing on the Sectors of Wholesale/Retail & Hotel/Restaurant (OECD 회원국 자료를 활용한 한국의 자영업 적정규모 추정에 관한 실증연구: 도소매업 및 음식숙박업을 중심으로)

  • Moon, Sunung;Jun, In Woo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.241-266
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    • 2011
  • This study examines the determinants of proportion of self-employed and their policy implications focusing hotel/restaurant and wholesale/retail sectors in Korea. In this study, we estimate the optimal size of self-employed in Korea using OECD data. Several hypothesis are tested by use of the regression analysis on the panel data of OECD economies during 2000-2007 period. Using the panel data of per capita GNI, unemployment level, income tax burden, we found that the excess supply level of self-employed was about 8.0%~9.5% overall. We also found that the excess supply level of self-employed was 13.7~14.1% for hotel and restaurant sector, and 10.4~11.1% for wholesale and retail sector. This results imply that strategically coordinated programs for noncompetitive sectors are more effectively implemented. Furthermore, more aggressive entry and exit policies are needed to solve the over-supply problem of self-employed in Korea.

Estimation of Economic Benefits Based on Appropriate Allocation of Emergency Medical Beds by Region in South Korea (지역별 응급의료병상 적정 분배에 따른 경제적 편익 추정)

  • Jeong Min Yang;Min Soo Kim;Jae Hyun Kim
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2024
  • Background: This study aimed to assess the appropriate allocation of emergency medical beds across 17 provinces and presume the economic benefits associated with such allocation. Methods: To estimate the optimal allocation of emergency medical beds by province, data from the Statistics Korea's "cause of death statistics (2014-2021)," regional statistics on "area, population, gender, age," and "population projections" were utilized. The "number of emergency beds by city and district" provided by the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service was also used. In estimating the economic benefits of preventing avoidable emergency deaths due to the expansion of emergency medical facilities, guidelines from the Korea Development Institute and the Korea Transport Institute were referenced to calculate the wage loss costs associated with emergency deaths and estimate the economic benefits. Results: The optimal ratio of emergency medical beds allocation by region was highest in Gyeonggi, Seoul, Gyeongnam, Gyeongbuk, and Busan, while Daejeon, Jeju, and Sejong showed lower ratios. Additionally, the prevention of avoidable deaths and economic benefits resulting from the increase in emergency medical facilities were highest in Gyeonggi, Seoul, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, and Busan. However, when standardized by population, the prevention of avoidable deaths and economic benefits were analyzed to be highest in Gyeongbuk, Chungnam, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and Busan. Conclusion: The results of this study can serve as foundational data for future policy measures aimed at addressing the imbalance in the supply of emergency medical facilities across regions. Considering regional characteristics in the distribution of emergency medical facilities is expected to ultimately increase the efficiency of national finances and yield economic benefits.

Strategies about Optimal Measurement Matrix of Environment Factors Inside Plastic Greenhouse (플라스틱온실 내부 환경 인자 다중센서 설치 위치 최적화 전략)

  • Lee, JungKyu;Kang, DongHyun;Oh, SangHoon;Lee, DongHoon
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2020
  • There is systematic spatial variations in environmental properties due to sensitive reaction to external conditions at plastic greenhouse occupied 99.2% of domestic agricultural facilities. In order to construct 3 dimensional distribution of temperature, relative humidity, CO2 and illuminance, measurement matrix as 3 by 3 by 5 in direction of width, height and length, respectively, dividing indoor space of greenhouse was designed and tested at experimental site. Linear regression analysis was conducted to evaluate optimal estimation method in terms with horizontal and vertical variations. Even though sole measurement point for temperature and relative humidity could be feasible to assess indoor condition, multiple measurement matrix is inevitably required to improve spatial precision at certain time domain such as period of sunrise and sunset. In case with CO2, multiple measurement matrix could not successfully improve the spatial predictability during a whole experimental period. In case with illuminance, prediction performance was getting smaller after a time period of sunrise due to systematic interference such as indoor structure. Thus, multiple sensing methodology was proposed in direction of length at higher height than growing bed, which could compensate estimation error in spatial domain. Appropriate measurement matrix could be constructed considering the transition of stability in indoor environmental properties due to external variations. As a result, optimal measurement matrix should be carefully designed considering flexibility of construction relevant with the type of property, indoor structure, the purpose of crop and the period of growth. For an instance, partial cooling and heating system to save a consumption of energy supplement could be successfully accomplished by the deployment of multiple measurement matrix.

Development of a Device for Estimating the Optimal Artificial Insemination Time of Individually Stalled Sows Using Image Processing (영상처리기법을 이용한 스톨 사육 모돈의 인공수정적기 예측 장치 개발)

  • Kim, D.J.;Yeon, S.C.;Chang, H.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.677-688
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    • 2007
  • 돼지를 포함한 대부분의 동물은 일정한 발정주기를 가지고 일정한 시기에 배란을 하는 자연배란동물이지만, 토끼, 고양이, 밍크 등의 암놈은 교미자극에 의해 배란이 일어나는 유기배란동물이다. 또한 1년에 한 번만 발정하는 단발정동물과 1년에 수차례 발정하는 다발정동물이 있다. 이 중에서 모돈은 1년에 수차례 발정하는 다발정 동물로서 발정기에 들면 비발정기와는 다른 행동을 나타낸다(Diehl 등, 2001). 양돈가의 수익을 최대화하기 위해서는 비생산일수를 최소로 줄여야 한다. 모돈의 비생산일수를 줄일 수 있는 한 가지 방법은 성공적으로 교배를 시키는 것이다. 이처럼 성공적으로 교배를 시키기 위해서는 수정적기를 정확히 예측해야 한다. 만약 수정적기를 정확히 판단하지 못하여 수태가 되지 않으면, 비생산일수가 늘어나 손실을 입게 된다. 따라서 수정적기를 정확히 판단하는 것은 모돈의 성공적인 인공수정에 있어서 중요한 요소이다. 수정적기는 배란이 일어나기 전 10시간에서 12시간 사이이며, 발정이 시작되는 시점을 기준으로 하였을 때 경산돈의 경우 26시간에서 34시간 사이이고 미경산돈의 경우는 18시간에서 26시간 사이이다(Evans 등, 2001). 현재 하루에 두 번 모돈의 발정을 확인하는 것이 일반화되어 있으며, 이 때 웅돈을 접촉시키거나 육안관찰을 통하여 발정 유무를 판단한다. 이러한 방법에는 숙련된 기술과 풍부한 경험이 요구될 뿐만 아니라 총 소요노동력의 30% 정도가 요구된다(Perez 등, 1986). 하루에 두 번밖에 발정을 감지하지 않기 때문에 발정이 언제 시작되었는지를 정확히 알 수 없으며, 또한 발정의 대부분이 새벽에 시작되므로 수정적기를 정확히 판단하기란 매우 어렵다. 만약 발정을 감지했더라도 적기에 인공수정을 하지 못한다면, 수태율이 낮아지므로 경제적 손실이 초래된다. 현재 이러한 문제점 때문에 2회에서 3회에 걸쳐 인공수정을 하고 있으나 이에 따른 소요비용과 소요노동력 등은 양돈가의 부담을 가중시키는 요인이 되고 있다. 돼지는 발정기가 되면 비발정기에 나타내지 않던 외음부의 냄새를 맡는 행동, 귀를 세우는 행동 및 승가허용 행동 등을 나타낸다(Diehl 등, 2001). 또한 돼지는 비발정기에 비하여 발정기에 더 많은 활동량을 나타낸다(Altman, 1941; Erez and Hartsock, 1990). Freson 등(1998)은 스톨에서 개별적으로 사육되고 있는 모돈의 활동량을 적외선센서를 이용하여 측정함으로써 발정을 86%까지 감지하였다고 보고하였다. 그러나 이 연구는 단지 모돈의 발정을 감지하였을 뿐 번식관리에 있어서 가장 중요한 수정적기의 판단 기준을 제시하지 못하였다. 따라서, 본 연구는 스톨에서 사육되는 모돈의 활동량을 측정함으로써 발정시작시각을 감지하고 이를 기준으로 인공수정적기를 예측할 수 있는 인공수정적기 예측 장치를 개발한 후 이의 성능을 농장실증실험을 통하여 시험하고자 수행되었다.