• Title/Summary/Keyword: optimal estimate

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Analysis of Impact Factors for the Improvement of Conceptual Cost Estimation Accuracy for Public Office Building (공공청사 개산견적 정확도 향상을 위한 공사비 영향요인 분석)

  • Jo, Yeong-Ho;Yun, Seok-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.495-506
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    • 2021
  • A Conceptual cost estimate, which is computed in the preliminary step of a project, is important for decision-making by a contractor in terms of the project budget, economic feasibility and validity analysis, and alternative comparisons. Therefore, a high error rate of a prediction model for a conceptual cost estimate can lead to various problems including excessive project expenditures and a delayed break-even point. this study proposed optimal impact factors by configuring quantitative impact factors computable in a preliminary step in various cases(combinations of impact factors). subsequently, the accuracy of different cases was comparatively analyzed by using the cases as input values of a prediction model using regression analysis. when the optimal combination of impact factors proposed in this study and other combination of impact factors were applied to the prediction model, the regression analysis-based prediction model exhibited 0.2-4.7% improvements in accuracy, respectively. the optimal combination of impact factors proposed in this study improved the accuracy of the prediction model of a conceptual cost estimate by removing unnecessary impact factor.

A Study on the Robust Optimal Supporting Positions of TFT-LCD Glass Panel (TFT-LCD 용 유리기판의 강건 최적 지지 위치의 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Huh Jae-Sung;Jung Byung-Chang;Lee Tae-Yoon;Kwak Byung-Man
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.30 no.8 s.251
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    • pp.1001-1007
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    • 2006
  • In this paper we present robust optimal supporting positions for large glass panels used for TFT-LCD monitors when they are stored in a cassette during manufacturing process. The criterion taken is to minimize their maximum deflection. Since they are supported by some supports and have large deformations, contact analysis with a geometrically nonlinear effect is necessary. In addition, the center of a panel can not be positioned exactly as intended and should be considered as uncertainties. To take into account of these effects, the mean and the standard deviation of system response functions, particularly the deflection of the panels, need be calculated. A function approximation moment method (FAMM) is utilized to estimate them. It is a special type of response surface methodology for structural reliability analysis and can be efficiently used to estimate the two stochastic properties, that is, the system performance and the perturbations caused by uncertainties. For a design purpose, they are to be minimized simultaneously by some optimization algorithm to obtain robust optimal supporting positions.

Optimal Control of Dynamic Positioned Vessel Using Kalman Filtering Techniques (칼만필터를 이용한 부유체운동의 최적제어)

  • Lee, Pan-Muk;Lee, Sang-Mu;Hong, Sa-Yeong
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 1988
  • A dynamically positioned vessel must be capable of maintaining a specified position and direction by controlling the thruster devices. The motions of a vessel are often assuned to tne sum of low frequency(LF)motions and high frequency(HF)motions. The former is mainly due to wind, current and second order wave forces, while the latter is mainly due to first order wave forces. In order to avoid the high frequency thruser modulation, the control system must include filters to estimate the low frequency motions from the measured motion signals, This paper presents a control system based on Kalman filtering technique and optimal control tyeory. Using the combined kalmam filter, LF motion estimates and HF ones are achieved from the motion measurement of the vessel. The estimated low frequency motions are used as inputs to the dynamic positioning system. The thruster modulation is minimized using the optimal control theory; Linear Quadratic Gaussian(LQG)controller. The performances of the Kalman filter and the dynamic positioned vessel are investigated by computer simulation.

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Selection of Fitness Function of Genetic Algorithm for Optimal Sensor Placement for Estimation of Vibration Pattern of Structures (구조물의 진동장 예측 최적센서배치를 위한 유전자 알고리듬 적합함수의 선정)

  • Jung, Byung-Kyoo;Bae, Kyeong-Won;Jeong, Weui-Bong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.25 no.10
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    • pp.677-684
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    • 2015
  • It is often necessary to predict the vibration patterns of the structures from the signals of finite number of vibration sensors. This study presents the optimal placement of vibration sensors by applying the genetic algorithm and the modal expansion method. The modal expansion method is used to estimate the vibration response of the whole structure. The genetic algorithm is used to estimate the optimal placement of vibration sensors. Optimal sensor placement can be obtained so that the fitness function is minimized in the genetic algorithm. This paper discusses the comparison of the performances of two types of fitness functions, modal assurance criteria(MAC) and condition number( CN). As a result, the estimation using MAC shows better performance than using CN.

Optimal fractions in terms of a prediction-oriented measure

  • Lee, Won-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.209-217
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    • 1993
  • The multicollinearity problem in a multiple linear regression model may present deleterious effects on predictions. Thus, its is desirable to consider the optimal fractions with respect to the unbiased estimate of the mean squares errors of the predicted values. Interstingly, the optimal fractions can be also illuminated by the Bayesian inerpretation of the general James-Stein estimators.

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DNN-Based Adaptive Optimal Learning Controller for Uncertain Robot Systems (동적 신경망에 기초한 불확실한 로봇 시스템의 적응 최적 학습제어기)

  • 정재욱;국태용;이택종
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics S
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    • v.34S no.6
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents an adaptive optimal learning controller for uncertian robot systems which makes use fo simple DNN(dynamic neural network) units to estimate uncertain parameters and learn the unknown desired optimal input. With the aid of a lyapunov function, it is shown that all that error signals in the system are bounded and the robot trajectory converges to the desired one globally exponentially. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is hsown by applying the controller to a 2-DOF robot manipulator.

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Optimal Value Estimation Method with Lower and Upper Bounds

  • Chong Sun;Youn Jong;Jong Seok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.257-268
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    • 2000
  • As one of indirect ways to get an optimal answer for sensitive questions both lower and upper values are sometimes asked and collected. In this paper a statistical method is proposed to analyze this kind of data using graphics. This method could define each sample median and estimate an optimal value between lower and upper bounds. In particular we find that this method has similar explanations of an equilibrium price with demand and supply functions in Economics.

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A Batch Sequential Sampling Scheme for Estimating the Reliability of a Series/Parallel System

  • Enaya, T.;Rekab, L.;Tadj, L.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2010
  • It is desired to estimate the reliability of a system that has two subsystems connected in series where each subsystem has two components connected in parallel. A batch sequential sampling scheme is introduced. It is shown that the batch sequential sampling scheme is asymptotically optimal as the total number of units goes to infinity. Numerical comparisons indicate that the batch sequential sampling scheme performs better than the balanced sampling scheme and is nearly optimal.

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Reviewing the Assessment of Optimal Yield of Groundwater in Korea

  • Soo-Hyoung Lee;Jae Min Lee;Se-Yeong Hamm
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.511-522
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    • 2024
  • The optimal yield is defined as the amount of groundwater that maintains a dynamic equilibrium state of the groundwater system over a long period. We examined the current problems, improvements, and methods for estimating the optimal groundwater yield in Korea, considering sustainable groundwater development. The optimal yield for individual wells and the sustainable yield for the entire groundwater basin were reviewed. Generally, the optimal yield for individual wells can be determined using long-term pumping and step drawdown tests. The optimal yield can be determined by groundwater quantity and quality, economic, and water use rights factors. The optimal yield of individual wells in the groundwater basin must be determined within the total sustainable amount of the entire groundwater basin, such that the optimal yield of a new well must be less than the remaining total sustainable amount, exempting the total optimal yield of the existing wells. Therefore, the optimal yield may be determined based on the estimated optimal yield at least twice per year. In addition, if groundwater level and pumping quantity data for at least one year are available, it may be effective to use the Hill, Harding, and zero groundwater-level change methods to re-estimate the optimal yield.

Load Recovery Using D-Optimal Sensor Placement and Full-Field Expansion Method (D-최적 실험 설계 기반 최적 센서 배치 및 모델 확장 기법을 이용한 하중 추정)

  • Seong-Ju Byun;Seung-Jae Lee;Seung-Hwan Boo
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.61 no.2
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2024
  • To detect and prevent structural damage caused by various loads on marine structures and ships, structural health monitoring procedure is essential. Estimating loads acting on the structures which are measured by sensors that are mounted properly are crucial for structural health monitoring. However, attaching an excessive number of sensors to the structure without consideration can be inefficient due to the high costs involved and the potential for inducing structural instability. In this study, we introduce a method to determine the optimal number of sensors and their optimized locations for strain measurement sensors, allowing for accurate load estimation throughout the structure using model expansion method. To estimate the loads exerted on the entire structure with minimal sensors, we construct a strain-load interpolation matrix using the strain mode shapes of the finite element (FE) model and select the optimal sensor locations by applying D-Optimal Design and the row exchange algorithm. Finally, we estimate the loads exerted on the entire structure using the model expansion method. To validate the proposed method, we compare the results obtained by applying the optimal sensor placement and model expansion method to an FE model subjected to arbitrary loads with the loads exerted on the entire FE model, demonstrating efficiency and accuracy.