• Title/Summary/Keyword: operational estimation

Search Result 304, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Bayesian analysis of a repairable system subject to overhauls with bounded failure intensity

  • Preeti Wanti, Srivastava;Nidhi, Jain
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.55-70
    • /
    • 2013
  • This paper deals with the Bayesian analysis of the failure data of a repairable mechanical system subject to minimal repairs and periodic overhauls. The effect of overhauls on the reliability of the system is modeled by a proportional age reduction model and the failure process between two successive overhauls is assumed to be 2-parameter Engelhardt-Bain process (2-EBP). Power Law Process (PLP) model has a disadvantage which 2-EBP can overcome. On the basis of the observed data and of a number of suitable prior densities, point and interval estimation of model parameters, as well as quantities of relevant interest are found. Also hypothesis tests on the effectiveness of performed overhauls have been developed using Bayes factor. Sensitivity analysis of improvement parameter is carried out. Finally, a numerical application is used to illustrate the proposed method.

  • PDF

NUMERICAL SOLUTION OF THE NONLINEAR KORTEWEG-DE VRIES EQUATION BY USING CHEBYSHEV WAVELET COLLOCATION METHOD

  • BAKIR, Yasemin
    • Honam Mathematical Journal
    • /
    • v.43 no.3
    • /
    • pp.373-383
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this study, a numerical method deals with the Chebyshev wavelet collocation and Adomian decomposition methods are proposed for solving Korteweg-de Vries equation. Integration of the Chebyshev wavelets operational matrices is derived. This problem is reduced to a system of non-linear algebraic equations by using their operational matrix. Thus, it becomes easier to solve KdV problem. The error estimation for the Chebyshev wavelet collocation method and ADM is investigated. The proposed method's validity and accuracy are demonstrated by numerical results. When the exact and approximate solutions are compared, for non-linear or linear partial differential equations, the Chebyshev wavelet collocation method is shown to be acceptable, efficient and accurate.

Optimal Monitoring Frequency Estimation Using Confidence Intervals for the Temporal Model of a Zooplankton Species Number Based on Operational Taxonomic Units at the Tongyoung Marine Science Station

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Sung;Lee, Youn-Ho;Jung, Gila;Kim, Choong-Gon;Jeong, Dageum;Lee, Yucheol;Kang, Mee-Hye;Kim, Hana;Choi, Hae-Young;Oh, Jina;Myong, Jung-Goo;Choi, Hee-Jung
    • Ocean and Polar Research
    • /
    • v.39 no.1
    • /
    • pp.13-21
    • /
    • 2017
  • Temporal changes in the number of zooplankton species are important information for understanding basic characteristics and species diversity in marine ecosystems. The aim of the present study was to estimate the optimal monitoring frequency (OMF) to guarantee and predict the minimum number of species occurrences for studies concerning marine ecosystems. The OMF is estimated using the temporal number of zooplankton species through bi-weekly monitoring of zooplankton species data according to operational taxonomic units in the Tongyoung coastal sea. The optimal model comprises two terms, a constant (optimal mean) and a cosine function with a one-year period. The confidence interval (CI) range of the model with monitoring frequency was estimated using a bootstrap method. The CI range was used as a reference to estimate the optimal monitoring frequency. In general, the minimum monitoring frequency (numbers per year) directly depends on the target (acceptable) estimation error. When the acceptable error (range of the CI) increases, the monitoring frequency decreases because the large acceptable error signals a rough estimation. If the acceptable error (unit: number value) of the number of the zooplankton species is set to 3, the minimum monitoring frequency (times per year) is 24. The residual distribution of the model followed a normal distribution. This model can be applied for the estimation of the minimal monitoring frequency that satisfies the target error bounds, as this model provides an estimation of the error of the zooplankton species numbers with monitoring frequencies.

A Study on Policy for Actualizing the Development Cost Estimation Guidelines of e-Learning Contents in Era of Convergence (융합시대의 이러닝 콘텐츠 개발대가 산정기준의 실효성 제고 정책)

  • Noh, Kyoo-Sung;Han, Tae-In
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.13 no.9
    • /
    • pp.49-56
    • /
    • 2015
  • Korea government has established clear cost estimation standard based on a survey of e-learning contents development cost and presented 'e-Learning Contents Development Cost Estimation Guidelines' that reflect the characteristics of the e-learning industry. However, if there is no institutional support, this guideline and system fails to achieve the purposes and objectives. And it is likely to be facing a dead document. Therefore, the policy foundation is required. This study suggested the following policy; stepwise activation of cost estimation standard, enact announcement and periodically adjustment of cost estimation standard, installation and operation of cost estimation standard operational committee, conjunction with the e-learning industry survey, cultural diffusion of co-owned copyright, systematic monitoring of the e-learning contents development process, research on activating policy of cost estimation standard, conjunction with the standard contract for enhancing policy effectiveness.

A Study on System Identification using Haar Functions (Haar함수를 이용한 시스템 동정에 관한 연구)

  • 안두수;채영무;이명규
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
    • /
    • v.36 no.4
    • /
    • pp.287-292
    • /
    • 1987
  • This paper deals with applications of Haar functions to parameter identification of linear systems. It is first introuduced to a new operational matrix which relates Haar functions and their integrations. The matrix can be used to identify the parameters of unknown linear systems by a least squares estimation. And then, the state equation of given systems is transformed into a computationally convenient algebraic form. This approach provides a more efficient method for the system identification problem.

  • PDF

Identification of Parameters of Bilinear Systems via Improved Block Pulse Coefficients Estimation Method (개선된 블럭 펄스 계수 추정 기법을 이용한 쌍일차계의 파라미터 추정)

  • Kim, Tai-Hoon;Shim, Jae-Sun;Chae, Young-Moo;Lee, Han-Seok;Shin, Seung-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
    • /
    • 2002.07d
    • /
    • pp.2246-2248
    • /
    • 2002
  • This paper considers the problem of identifying the time-invariant parameters of non-linear distributed systems. The parameters, in this paper, are identified by using the EBPOMs (Extended Block Pulse Operational Matrices) which can reduce the burden of operation and the volume of error caused by matrices multiplication.

  • PDF

Rainfall Estimation for Hydrologic Applications

  • Bae, Deg-Hyo;Georgakakos, K.P.;Rajagopal, R.
    • Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
    • /
    • v.7
    • /
    • pp.125-137
    • /
    • 1996
  • The subject of the paper is the selection of the number and location of raingauge stations among existing ones for the computation of mean areal precipitation and for use as input of real-time flow prediction models. The weighted average method developed by National Weather Service was used to compute MAP over the Boone River basin in Iowa with a 40 year daily data set. Two different searching methods were used to find local optimal solutions. An operational rainfall-runoff model was used to determine the optimal location and number of stations for flow prediction.

  • PDF

A Method for Determining a Ship Economic Route based on the Acquisition of the Sea State and Estimation of Fuel Consumption (해상 정보 취득과 연료 소모량 추정을 기반으로 한 선박 경제 운항 경로 결정 방법)

  • Roh, Myung-Il
    • Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.71-78
    • /
    • 2012
  • Recently, the ratio of fuel cost to the operational cost of a ship is increasing according to the increase of the international oil price. Thus, many studies are being made to reduce the cost; for example, a method for acquiring the sea state information, a method for estimating fuel consumption, a method for determining the ship's optimal route, and so on. However, these studies were not incorporated together and being independently made in different fields. In this study, by improving and incorporating such studies, a method for determining a ship economic route based on the acquisition of the sea state and estimation of fuel consumption was proposed. To evaluate the applicability of the proposed method, it was applied to an optimal routing problem of the ocean area including many islands. The result shows that the proposed method can yield the economic route minimizing fuel consumption.

Analysis of Line Capacity for the Special Structure in Railway (특이구조를 갖는 선로구간의 용량분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Dong-Hee;Hong Soon-Heum
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
    • /
    • 2003.05a
    • /
    • pp.668-673
    • /
    • 2003
  • Line Capacity is a criteria for transport capacity and is used to evaluate railroad investment alternatives or to decide train frequency when establish transportation plan. There are two methodologies to increase transport capacity of railway. One is to invest railroad equipment or vehicles, and the other is to improve operation efficiency through optimization. Such all efforts are intended to increase transport capacity by improving line capacity. So far, this criteria is calculated statical and experimental numerical formula. But, line capacity has special attribute that changes dynamically according to operational conditions, so there is a need of new line capacity estimation system. In this paper, we present a new estimation method of line capacity based on the probability simulation, and apply to normal railline section and special structured railine section.

  • PDF

CO2 EXCHANGE COEFFICIENT IN THE WORLD OCEAN USING SATELLITE DATA

  • Osawa, Takahiro;Masatoshi, Akiyama;Suwa, Jun;Sugimori, Yasuhiro;Chen, Ru
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
    • /
    • 1998.09a
    • /
    • pp.49-57
    • /
    • 1998
  • CO2 transfer velocity is one of the key parameters for CO2 flux estimation at air - sea interface. However, current studies show that significant inconsistency still exists in its estimation when using different models and remotely sensed data sets, which acts as one of the main uncertainties involved in the computation of CO2 exchange coefficient between air - sea interface. In this study, wind data collected from SSM/I and scatterometer onboard ERS-1, in conjunction with operational NOAA/AVHRR, are applied to different models for calculating CO2 exchange coefficient in the world ocean. Their interrelationship and discrepancies inherent with different models and satellite data are analyzed. Finally, the seasonal and inter-annual variation of CO2 exchanges coefficient for different ocean basins are presented and discussed.

  • PDF