• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.99-106
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• 2020

CEOs Overconfidence can bring potentially risky early decisions to businesses, along with large enterprise free cash flow that can bring different investment decisions with CEOs Overconfidence. Especially in the context of Vietnamese enterprises, CEOs are often influenced by behavioral psychology about overconfidence in investment decisions (due to individual cultural characteristics as well as operating financial markets also depend on many factors outside the market). Therefore, the authors study the impact of overconfidence and cash flow on investment in Vietnamese to find the internal relationship between these three factors in the financial environment in Vietnam. With 480 companies listed on the Vietnam Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2018 (companies have continuous reports), the regression analysis results with panel data (FEM, GLS models, correction of robust and GMM dealing with endogenous problems) have shown Overconfidence has a positive impact on investment. At the same time, the results also indicated that enterprises with overconfident CEOs and large cash flows tend to invest less than enterprises with low cash flow. The results of this study have shown the behavioral behavior of CEOs in Vietnamese enterprises that exist under both prospect theory and effective market theory.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.99-129
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• 2011

This paper analytically studies how to choose hedging instrument for firms with steady operating cash flows from value maximization perspective. I derive a formula to determine option's optimal strike that makes hedged cash flow have the best monetary payoff given a hedger's view on the underlying asset. I find that not only the expected mean but also the expected standard deviation of the underlying asset in relation to the forward price and the implied volatility play a crucial role in making optimal hedging decision. Higher moments play a certain part in hedging decision but to a lesser degree.

• 한국융합학회논문지
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• 제10권12호
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• pp.299-305
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• 2019

본 연구의 목적은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 한국, 일본 제조기업의 부채비율이 발생액 및 실제 이익조정과 어떠한 관계인지 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 2008년부터 2015년까지의 기간의 한국과 일본 제조기업을 대상으로 회귀분석을 수행하였다. 연구결과 한국기업은 부채비율이 높을(낮을)수록 재량적 발생액과 영업현금흐름을 이용한 상향(하향)의 이익조정을 수행한 것으로 나타났다. 이와 대조적으로 일본기업에서는 부채비율이 높을(낮을)수록 발생액이 아닌 실제 활동(영업현금흐름, 제조원가, 재량적 비용)을 통하여 상향(하향)의 이익조정을 수행하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 수출규제 등의 문제로 한일관계가 경색된 현시점에서 각 국의 기업표본을 사용하여 경영자가 어떠한 의사결정을 수행하여 이익조정을 수행하는지를 확인함으로써 한일 기업의 의사결정에 대한 학술적 근거를 마련하였다는 점에 있어서 그 의의가 있다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제12권19호
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• pp.67-72
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• 1989

This paper concerns with the decision maker has the job of forecasting capital investments and operating expenses to aid the decision making in choosing and evaluating present annual and future alternatives. The cost estimating function eventually analysis, evaluates and choose the alternatives. And also, the marginal analysis performed originally from a preliminary design of some sort, and eventually plans are made to investigate investment possibilities. This paper provide the discounted net cash flows and the present, annual and future worth methods. In despite of any choice for an analytical methods, there remains the problems of predicting and assessments certain future events. Therefore, these models dealing with the optimal plant sizing, equipments replacement, and lease or buy will be discussed.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2021

민간투자사업은 30~40년이라는 긴 기간동안 수익이 발생하는 특성을 가지며 시간이 흐름에 따라 수익과 비용에 변동요인이 발생하여 통계모형이나 현금흐름할인법보다는 시간 흐름에 따른 변수들의 상호작용에 대한 시뮬레이션이 가능한 시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용한다면 내외부 변수들에 대해 유의미한 시뮬레이션 결과를 도출해 낼 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 즉, 이전에 시도된 적 없는 항만분야 민간투자사업에 시스템다이내믹스를 기반으로 한 재무적 타당성 비교·검증 모형 수립을 통해 기존 현금흐름할인법과의 차이를 비교해보고, 거시경제요인, 운영기간, 사회적 할인율 등 각 변수들의 상호관계 작용이 재무성에 변화에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 시뮬레이션해 봄으로써 기존에 시도해 보지 않은 차별화된 연구를 수행해 보고자 한다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제17권11호
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• pp.73-79
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this study was evaluated to compare the predictive power of distress prediction models by using discriminant analysis method and logit analysis method for food service franchise industry in Korea. Research design, data and methodology: Forty-six food service franchise industry with high sales volume in the 2017 were selected as the sample food service franchise industry for analysis. The fourteen financial ratios for analysis were calculated from the data in the 2017 statement of financial position and income statement of forty-six food service franchise industry in Korea. The fourteen financial ratios were used as sample data and analyzed by t-test. As a result seven statistically significant independent variables were chosen. The analysis method of the distress prediction model was performed by logit analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. Results: The difference between the average value of fourteen financial ratios of forty-six food service franchise industry was tested through t-test in order to extract variables that are classified as top-leveled and failure food service franchise industry among the financial ratios. As a result of the univariate test appears that the variables which differentiate the top-leveled food service franchise industry to failure food service industry are income to stockholders' equity, operating income to sales, current ratio, net income to assets, cash flows from operating activities, growth rate of operating income, and total assets turnover. The statistical significances of the seven financial ratio independent variables were also confirmed by logit analysis and discriminant analysis. Conclusions: The analysis results of the prediction accuracy of each distress prediction model in this study showed that the forecast accuracy of the prediction model by the discriminant analysis method was 84.8% and 89.1% by the logit analysis method, indicating that the logit analysis method has higher distress predictability than the discriminant analysis method. Comparing the previous distress prediction capability, which ranges from 75% to 85% by discriminant analysis and logit analysis, this study's prediction capacity, which is 84.8% in the discriminant analysis, and 89.1% in logit analysis, is found to belong to the range of previous study's prediction capacity range and is considered high number.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.281-287
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• 2020

In capital budgeting practices, investment project evaluations based on the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) represent the traditional evaluation techniques. Compared with the traditional methods, the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) gives the opportunity to evaluate an investment in certain projet, while taking the changes in cash flows over time and issuing shares such as dividing shares, bonuses, and dividend for each end of the investment year into account. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate an investment in the Malaysian construction sector utilizing financial data for 39 public listed companies operating in the Malaysian construction sector over the period from Jan 1, 2007, to December 30, 2018, based on the MIRR method. Stochastic was studied in this study to estimate the estimated probability by applying the Markov chain model to the MIRR method where the transition matrix has two possible movements of either Good (G) or Bad (B). it is found that the long-run probability of getting a good investment is higher than the probability of getting a bad investment in the long-run, where were the probabilities of good and bad are 0.5119, 0.4881, respectively. Hence, investment in the Malaysian construction sector is recommended.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제20권11호
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• pp.151-156
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• 2019

본 연구는 2017년 기준 매출액 상위 46개 외식 업체를 선정 후 이들 업체들의 재무 비율을 산출한 후 이를 변수로 활용하여 로짓 분석에 의한 부실 예측모형의 평가에 목적이 있다. 국내 46개 외식 업체의 14개 재무비율을 변수로 선정하여 로짓 분석에 의한 실증 분석을 실시하였으며 실증 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 14개 재무 비율 중 건전 외식 기업과 부실 외식 기업을 구분하는 재무 비율은 유동 비율, 매출액 영업 이익률, 자기 자본 순이익률, 영업 현금 흐름비율, 영업 이익 증가율 및 총자산 회전율로 총 7개로 나타났으며 다른 7개의 재무 비율( 부채 비율, 차입금 의존도, 영업 이익 대비 이자 보상 비율, 매출액 순이익률, 총자산 순이익률, 매출액 증가율, 당기순이익 증가율, 총자산 증가율)은 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 7개 재무 비율을 로짓 함수의 변수로 활용하여 건전 외식 기업과 부실 외식 기업을 구분하는 로짓 분석에 의한 부실 예측 모형의 예측력은 89.1%로 나타났다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.137-142
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• 2019

There are two methods for evaluating two or more mutually exclusive projects. One is a total investment approach and the other is an incremental investment approach. The former can rank projects by the criterion of the net present value, but the latter can't do it. An incremental investment approach is only possible when all pairwise alternatives are compared. Thus an incremental investment approach is superior in ranking them over an incremental investment approach. To do so, a principle of comparison must be established. Comparisons of profitability are reasonable when operating the same amount of investment over the same period of time. One principle is that all projects are invested in the largest of the projects. Another principle is that all projects are invested during the longest project life of the projects. In this paper, even if the principle is followed, it will be shown that the external rate of return fails to rank them. However, the productive rate of return criterion would prove to be able to rank them like the net present value standard, provided that the principle of comparison is kept. In addition, rate of returns can be assessed so that all mutually exclusive projects can be compared at once, such as on the criterion of the net present value. That is, it can be also compared with many other returns, such as the profit rates on financial investments or real investments.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제17권10호
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• pp.520-526
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• 2016

본 연구는 서울지역 특1급 호텔을 대상으로 2015년도 재무비율을 변수로 활용하여 표준재무비율을 산출하며, 다변량 판별분석에 의한 부실예측모형 개발 및 부실예측력 평가에 목적이 있다. 서울소재 19개 특1급 호텔의 14개 재무비율을 분석대상으로 선정하여 실증분석을 실시하였으며 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 분석결과 우수기업과 부실기업을 판별하는 7개 재무비율은 유동비율, 차입금의존도, 영업이익대비 이자보상비율, 매출액영업이익율, 자기자본순이익율, 영업현금흐름비율, 총자산회전율로 나타났다. 둘째, 7개 재무비율을 활용하여 우수기업과 부실기업을 판별하는 판별함수를 다변량판별분석에 의해 추정하였으며, 추정된 판별함수를 실제 소속집단과 예측집단으로 분류가 가능한가의 예측력 검정 결과, 예측 판별력의 정확도는 87.9%로 분석되었다. 셋째, 추정된 판별함수의 예측 판별력의 정확도 검증결과 판별분석에 의한 부실예측모형의 예측력은 78.95%로 분석되었다. 이러한 분석결과, 호텔 경영진은 호텔기업의 부실기업집단을 판별하는 7개 재무비율을 중점적으로 관리해야 함을 시사하고 있다. 또한 호텔기업이 타 산업과는 뚜렷한 재무구조의 차이와 부실예측 지표가 상이하며, 이에 호텔기업 대상의 신용평가시스템 구축 시 호텔기업의 재무적 특성을 반영한 시스템 구축이 필요함을 시사하고 있다.