• Title/Summary/Keyword: oil price fluctuation

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The Building Energy Efficient Policy to Tackle Rising High Oil Prices in Korea (고유가시대에 대비한 건축물의 에너지효율화관련 시책 현황)

  • Jeong, Young-Sun;Choi, Gyoung-Seok;Kim, Kyoung-Woo;Kang, Jae-Sik;Lee, Seung-Eon
    • Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.959-964
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    • 2006
  • Recently, an international oil price shows fluctuation in 70 dollars per barrel and it is said that this trend is able to continues for much longer. Because energy consumption in buildings accounted for about 25% of the nation's total demand for energy, Energy censervation and efficiency of buildings were very important issues. Main political measures relating to building energy use and saving were 'the system of accrediting green building', 'building energy certification system', 'energy consumption efficiency rating indication system', 'building energy code', 'high efficient energy materials certification system'. This paper presents approaches to improve building energy efficiency policy.

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The Variables Affecting the Fluctuation of Visitors and the Construction of Models of Demand Projection in National Park (국립공원 이용객의 변동요인과 수요예측 모형설정)

  • 정하광
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.12-22
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    • 1991
  • The purpose of this study is to identify demand and methods of projection, including to prove the variables affecting the fluctuation of visitors and to analyze the relationship between these variables in National Park. Statistical analysis method (Multiple Linear Regression Analysis, ANOVA, and Model diagnostics) was carried out by computer program SAS/pc. 13 variables (1. Total Population, 2. Per Capita PDI, 3. Employment Ratio of S.O.C. & others, 4. NO. of Passenger Car, 5. Length of Roads, 6. Leisure Expenditure of Farm Household, 7. Leisure Expenditure of Urban Household, 8. Price Index, 9. NO. of Bus, 10. Exchange on Dollars, 11. Export, 12. Import, and 13. Visitors in National Park) had been used to this study. The scope of time period is during the last 17 years (1970-1986). The results were as follows; 1) Participation depends only on the specific characteristics of the economic factors (Price Index and Leisure Expenditure of Urban Household). These factors are the importance factors directly affecting the participation of visitors. The statistical Model for projecting the visitors in National Parks is the function of "Visitors in National Parks (thousand)=14915+0.210311*Leisure Expenditure of Urband Household (won)-157.835619*Price Index(1985=100)" 2) The external factors affecting the participation depends upon the interelated features of availability and accessibility (NO. of Passenger Car, Length of Roads, and NO. of Bus) of recreation resources or sites, and the economic factors (Per Capita PDI, Export, and Import). These factors are the factors indirectly affecting the participation of visitors. 3) The participation depends on the specific characteristics of demographic factors (Total Population and Employment Ratio of S.O.C. & others). These factors are the factors indirectly affecting the participation of visitors. 4) The unexpected fluctuation of yearly visitors depends on oil shock or inflation (1971, 1973-1974, 1979-1980), promulgation of national emergency decrees (1971-1972, 1974-1975, 1979-1980), and national events (assassination of president Park's wife, Madame Yuk in 1974 and president Park I 1979).

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A Causal Relationship between Metal Material Prices and Construction Cost (금속원자재가격의 변동이 건설공사비에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Sang, Jun;Byun, Jeong-Yoon;Yoo, Seung-Kyu;Kim, Ju-Hyung;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.137-138
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    • 2012
  • Domestic construction materials market was about 65 trillion won and it occupied 45% level of total construction cost by 2007. In addition, due to the recent rapid rise of crude oil and iron ore price, fluctuation of raw material cost has a great influence to the cost of construction industry. This means that smooth performance is closely related to construction materials. And among them, because of high putting rate of metal materials, it can be seen that the fluctuation of metal material prices is an important variables. So in this study, for the pre-study to analyze the impact of metallic material prices to construction cost, the researcher analyzed a causal relationship between metal material prices and construction cost.

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Establishment of a Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making Method Framework for Selecting R&D Programs of Energy Technologies (에너지기술 R&D 프로그램 선정을 위한 퍼지 다기준의사결정 프레임워크 수립)

  • Lee, Seong-Kon;Mogi, Gento;Kim, Jong-Wook
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.22-30
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    • 2009
  • Energy environment has been changing rapidly such as the fluctuation of oil prices and the effect on UNFCCC. Oil price change affects Korea's economy heavily due to her poor natural resources and large dependence of consumed energy resources. Korea takes the 4th place of importing the crude oil and 9th place in $CO_2$ emissions with the 1st place of $CO_2$ emissions increasing rate. Considering the current statue of Korea including oil price change and UNFCCC, Korea will be expected to be the Annex I nation due to Korean energy environments and the quantity of $CO_2$ emission. Energy technology development is a crucial key to cope with Korea's national energy security and environments. In this study, we establish the framework, which allocates the relative weights of assessment criteria and sub-criteria, for assessing and selecting R&D programs of energy technologies strategically. We integrated fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach since the fuzzy AHP approach reflects the vagueness of human thoughts and perception effectively as making pairwise comparisons of criteria and alternatives. The fundamental data of this research results will support R&D planning phase for policy-makers and the production of well focused R&D outcomes.

Price Escalation Clause of Letter of Credit (신용장의 에스컬레이션 조항)

  • Park, Sae-Woon
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.89-109
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of price escalation clauses has the effect of increasing the L/C value subject to external pricing mechanisms. This will be found inter alia in metals and oil products transactions. Such a clause gives rise to a question. That is, whether it is enforceable or whether it constitutes a letter of credit. The problem is what to reference to a source outside the context of a letter of credit constitutes a non-documentary condition rendering the undertaking something other than a letter of credit. Reference to an objective and readily available index is not something that renders the undertaking obscure and is not "non-documentary in the sense that it is possible to make an objective verification of the data. The possible solution is that not every non-documentary condition will be disregarded. For example, an index specified in the credit will not be disregarded as stipulated in ISP98 and URDG758. If a non-documentary is "central and fundamental", it seems that the parties intended a dependent payment obligations. The most common means of overcoming this conflicts of interests is to issue an instrument incorporatingan escalation clause, but capping the bank's maximum payment obligation.

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On the Inflation and its Modifications in the Era of Global Pandemic: The Case of Some ADB Countries

  • CHARAIA, Vakhtang;PAPAVA, Vladimer
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2022
  • The article discusses the problems caused by inflation in the developing Asia-Pacific region during the time of the worldwide pandemic and suggests innovative solutions to the problem. The reality is that some of the commodity groups from the consumer basket (e.g., non-seasonal fruits, electronics, furniture, hotel, and restaurant services, etc.) fail to reflect the needs of the low-income earners, which make the majority in developing countries. At the same time, the inflation targeting regime has become outdated and not reliable, because of uncontrolled exogenic factors (imported inflation, fluctuation in oil prices, supply chain disruption, Russia-Ukraine war, etc.) prevailing on endogenic factors and thus making it impossible to control the price stability, especially in developing countries. Since, the old-fashioned inflation index and inflation targeting mechanisms regrettably fail to fully reflect both the society and governmental/central banks' expectations, based on which we first should have better care and second create better policies; we propose to use a combination of already well-known indexes and policies, with the new statistical indicators, which reflects price fluctuations on the medication, utilities, and nutrition.

Risk-averse Inventory Model under Fluctuating Purchase Prices (구매가격 변동시 위험을 고려한 재고모형)

  • Yoo, Seuck-Cheun;Park, Chan-Kyoo;Jung, Uk
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.33-53
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    • 2010
  • When purchase prices of a raw material fluctuate over time, the total purchasing cost is mainly affected by reordering time. Existing researches focus on deciding the right time when the demand for each period is replenished at the lowest cost. However, the decision is based on expected future prices which usually turn out to include some error. This discrepancy between expected prices and actual prices deteriorates the performance of inventory models dealing with fluctuating purchase prices. In this paper, we propose a new inventory model which incorporates not only cost but also risk into making up a replenishment schedule to meet each period's demand. For each replenishment schedule, the risk is defined to be the variance of its total cost. By introducing the risk into the objective function, the variability of the total cost can be mitigated, and eventually more stable replenishment schedule will be obtained. According to experimental results from crude oil inventory management, the proposed model showed better performance over other models in respect of variability and cost.

Tree-Structured Nonlinear Regression

  • Chang, Young-Jae;Kim, Hyeon-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.759-768
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    • 2011
  • Tree algorithms have been widely developed for regression problems. One of the good features of a regression tree is the flexibility of fitting because it can correctly capture the nonlinearity of data well. Especially, data with sudden structural breaks such as the price of oil and exchange rates could be fitted well with a simple mixture of a few piecewise linear regression models. Now that split points are determined by chi-squared statistics related with residuals from fitting piecewise linear models and the split variable is chosen by an objective criterion, we can get a quite reasonable fitting result which goes in line with the visual interpretation of data. The piecewise linear regression by a regression tree can be used as a good fitting method, and can be applied to a dataset with much fluctuation.

The Field Test of bankfiltration(including alluvial and riverbed deposits) Source Heat Pump Cooling & Heating System (강변여과수(충적층 및 하상)를 이용한 열펌프 냉난방시스템의 실증연구)

  • Hwang, Ki-Sup;Jung, Woo-Sung;Ahn, Young-Sub
    • Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.1186-1190
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    • 2006
  • Rising in important of alternative energy due to the recenfly high oil price and environment problem. Application of alternative energy has become higher than before. In this study, facility test of Geothermal energy to bankfiltration was examined appliying changwon pumping well. Initial installation cost was efficiently saved by connecting a heat pump system to pumping well in changwon bankfiltration site. A falling-off in efficiency of heat pump was free due to the bankfiltration that is rare for the temperature fluctuation. Therefore, Heat soure as bankfiltration system solve the existing facilities problems of geothermal heat pump system.

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Empirical Analysis on Bitcoin Price Change by Consumer, Industry and Macro-Economy Variables (비트코인 가격 변화에 관한 실증분석: 소비자, 산업, 그리고 거시변수를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.195-220
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.