• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.81-98
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• 2018

Port logistics is essential for Korea's economy which heavily rely on international trade. Vast amounts of capital and time are consumed for the operation and development of ports to improve their competitiveness. Therefore, it is important to forecast cargo volume in order to establish the optimum level of construction and development plan. Itemized forecasting is necessary for appropriate port planning, since disaggregate approach is able to provides more realistic solution than aggregate forecasting. We introduce a new time series model which is Two-way Seasonality Multiplied Regressive Model (TSMR) to forecast oil cargo volume, which accounts for a large portion of total cargo volume in Korea. The TSMR model is designed to take into account the characteristics of oil cargo volume which exhibits trends with short and long-term seasonality. To verify the TSMR model, existing forecasting models are also used for a comparison reason. The results shows that the TSMR excels the existing models in terms of forecasting accuracy whereas the TSMR displays weakness in short-term forecasting. In addition, it was shown that the TSMR can be applied to other cargoes that have trends with short- and long-term seasonality through testing applicability of the TSMR.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.106-110
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• 2021

In this study, the main factors affecting the number of passengers and cargo volume transported by air between Korea, China and Japan over the past 20 years are to be identified. For the analysis, data from three countries' GDP and per capita as well as exchange rates and international oil prices were used, and OLS multiple regression analysis and fixed effect analysis were performed. As a result of the analysis, both the number of passengers and cargo volume transported by air showed a negative (-) direction for GDP, which represents the country's economic power, and a positive (+) direction, for per capita GDP, which represents income level. And the increase in the exchange rate between China and Japan acted in a positive (+) direction on the increase in the number of passengers, and the effect of oil prices was found to be limited.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.15-22
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• 2020

Economic indicators are a factor that affects air cargo volume. This study analyzes the different factors affecting air cargo volume by each Chinese cities according to the main characteristics. The purpose of this study is to help companies related to China, airlines, and other stakeholders predict and prepare for the fluctuations in air cargo volume and make optimal decisions. To this end, 20 economic data were used, and the entire data was reduced to 5 dimensions through factor analysis to build a dataset necessary and evaluated the influencing factors by multi regression. The result shows that Macro-Economic Indicators, Production/Service indicators are significant for every cities and Chinese manufacture/Customer indicators, Korean manufacture/Oil Price indicators, Trade/Current indicators are significant for each other city. All adjusted R2 values are high enough to explain our model and the result showed excellent performance in terms of analyzing the different factors which affects air cargo volume. If companies that are currently doing business with China can identify factors affecting China's cargo volume, they can be flexible in response to changes in plans such as plans to enter China, production plans and inventory management, and marketing strategies, which can be of great help in terms of corporate operations.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.155-161
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• 2023

97.5% of our country's exports and 87.2% of imports are transported by sea, making ports an important component of the Korean economy. To efficiently operate these ports, it is necessary to improve the short-term prediction of port water volume through scientific research methods. Previous research has mainly focused on long-term prediction for large-scale infrastructure investment and has largely concentrated on container port water volume. In this study, short-term predictions for petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume were performed for Ulsan Port, one of the representative petroleum ports in Korea, and the prediction performance was confirmed using the deep learning model LSTM (Long Short Term Memory). The results of this study are expected to provide evidence for improving the efficiency of port operations by increasing the accuracy of demand predictions for petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume. Additionally, the possibility of using LSTM for predicting not only container port water volume but also petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume was confirmed, and it is expected to be applicable to future generalized studies through further research.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.1-17
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• 2008

In this paper the cargo transportation were forecasted for the North Port in Busan through time series models. The cargo transportation were classified into three large groups; container, oil, general cargo. The seasonal indexes of existing cargo transportation were firstly calculated, and optimum models were chosen among exponential smoothing models and ARIMA models. The monthly cargo transportation were forecasted with applying the seasonal index in annual cargo transportation expected from the models. Thus, the cargo transportation in 2011 and 2015 were forecasted about 22,900 myriad ton and 24,654 myriad ton respectively. It was estimated that container cargo volume would play the role of locomotive in the increase of the future cargo transportation. On the other hand, the oil and general cargo have little influence upon it.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-38
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• 1987

The amount of cargoes by cargo vessels has increased tremendously during the last decade due to the great growth of korea economy. But in spite of this trend, there is rarely the substantial analyzed on the operational status of coastal shipping. In this paper, the characteristics of seaborne cargo and traffic flow of coastal shipping surveyed in detail through the statistical and the origintain and destination (O.D) analysis. Also, the basic ship's tonnage of coastal shipping representing the minimum tonnage which is capable of carrying the given seaborne cargo is suggested through the computer simulation using the data of 1985 year. The results are as follows; 1) the about 80% of total coastal traffic volume is going in/out to the port of Incheon, Busan, Pohang, Samil, Bukpyung, Mukho, Samchuk, and Jeju. 2) The main cargo items such as oil, iron material, cement, anthracite grain, fertilizer, other ore are reached to the about 70% of total amount of coastal trade. 3) ship's tonnage going in/out to the port of Bukpyiung, Busan, Pohang is increasing linearly year by year, and the amount of oil, iron material, cement, anthracite, grain, fertilizer, other ore are also increasing in linear pattern. 4) As a result of simulation, the optimum (basic) ship's tonnage.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.662-670
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• 2019

Tanker cargo tanks are equipped with the means of raising and maintaining the cargo discharge temperature to a suitable level. In this paper, a new heating coil design is proposed and analyzed. Contrary to conventional designs, wherein the heating coils are evenly distributed over the tank bottom, the proposed design arranges the heating coils in the central part of the tank bottom, in a vertical direction. Due to the intensive cargo circulation generated, a forced convection is superimposed on a buoyancy-driven natural convection, providing a more efficient mixed convection heat transfer mechanism. Numerical simulations performed by using a finite volume method show that in the case of 7-bar steam Bunker C heavy fuel oil heating, a five-hour circulation phase average heat transfer coefficient equals 199.2 W/m²K. This result might be taken as an impetus for the more thorough experimental examination.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Visualization
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.54-60
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• 2011

This paper is a basic study on volatile organic compounds(VOC) recovery system in a crude oil carrier. VOC is easily evaporated in cargo tankers during loading and transportation of crude oil, causes serious environmental contamination and a huge economic loss. An ejector system is designed to mix VOC gas into crude oil flow to reduce VOC concentration. Detail two-phase flow inside the ejector is simulated using a commercial CFD code. To verify the numerical prediction, a scale-down experiment is conducted. Instead of crude oil and VOC, water and air are used as the working fluids. Flow characteristics and main parameters are obtained by two-phase flow visualization and PIV measurements. Air volume flow rate induced by the ejector is compared with respect to the volume flow rate of water using experimental and numerical results. Overall performance of the two-phase ejector predicted by the CFD simulation agrees well with that of the experiment.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.142-156
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• 2015

A new method for ship Inner Shell optimization, which is called Parametric Inner Shell Optimization Method (PISOM), is presented in this paper in order to improve both hull performance and design efficiency of transport ship. The foundation of PISOM is the parametric Inner Shell Plate (ISP) model, which is a fully-associative model driven by dimensions. A method to create parametric ISP model is proposed, including geometric primitives, geometric constraints, geometric constraint solving etc. The standard optimization procedure of ship ISP optimization based on parametric ISP model is put forward, and an efficient optimization approach for typical transport ship is developed based on this procedure. This approach takes the section area of ISP and the other dominant parameters as variables, while all the design requirements such as propeller immersion, fore bottom wave slap, bridge visibility, longitudinal strength etc, are made constraints. The optimization objective is maximum volume of cargo oil tanker/cargo hold, and the genetic algorithm is used to solve this optimization model. This method is applied to the optimization of a product oil tanker and a bulk carrier, and it is proved to be effective, highly efficient, and engineering practical.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.65-113
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• 1983

A lot of studies of ship's economy are on the traditional fields such asreducing propulsion resistance, raising cargo handling rates and lessening building consts, but there are few researches on the merchant ship's economy concerning their deadweights and speeds according to shipping companies managerial cercumstances. Contrary to the contemporary trend that "the bigger, the better, if the cargo handling rate could increased sufficiently to hold down port time to that rate of smmaler vessels", this paper demonstrates the existence of certain limits in ship's size and speed according to the coditions of the freight rates, voyage distances, cargo handing rates, prices of fuel oil, interst rates etc. Fom the curves of criteria contour for various ship's deadweights and speeds which are depicted from the gird search method, one can get the costs and the yearly profit rates under the conditiions of large volume with long term contracts for the transportation of bulk cargoes. In estimating ship's transportation economy, the auther takes the position that the profit rate method is properer than the cost method, and introduces the calculation table of the voyage profit rate index. The use of the criteria contours will be of help to ship owners in determining the size and speed of the ship which will be built or purchased and serve in a certain trade route.