• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.519-526
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• 2000

This study is to investigate the recurrence possibility of consecutive dry years such as the long dry period around 1900 in the annual rainfall data at Seoul station. The truncation levels, as the criterion for the dry years, are decided such as to make the occurrence of dry years follow the Poissonian distribution, which assures independent occurrence of dry years. For the truncation level of mean-0.5stdv, the occurrence of dry years is found to satisfy the Poissonian distribution weakly with 99% significance level, but for those of mean-0.75stdv and mean-stdv with 95% significance level. For these truncation levels, the long dry period around 1900 is divided into several short consecutive dry years. The Poisson process has then been applied to derive the occurrence probability of consecutive dry years. For the truncation level of mean-0.75stdv or below, the Poisson process was found to reproduce similar occurrence probabilities to the observed. Especially for the lowest truncation level used in the study (mean-stdv), we could see that the occurrence probability of consecutive dry years estimated for the data collected before the long dry period around 1900 was higher that those for the data collected after the long dry period, thus, it could be concluded that the possibility of long dry periods is decreasing recently.cently.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.112-120
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• 2010

In this paper time series wave data measured continuously for 24 hours during a storm in Yura Sea Area are used to investigate statistical characteristics of nonlinear waves. The exceedance probability of wave height is compared using the Rayleigh distribution and the Edgeworth-Rayleigh (ER) distribution. Wave data which show stationary state for 10 hours contain 4600 waves approximately. The Gram-Chalier distribution fits the probability of wave elevation better than the Gaussian distribution. The Rayleigh ($H_{rms}$) distribution follows the exceedance probability of wave height in general and predicts the probability of freak waves well. The ER distribution overpredicts the exceedance probability of wave heights and the occurrence of freak waves. If wave data measured for 30 minute period which contains 250 waves are used, the ER distribution can predict the occurrence probability of freak waves well. But it overpredicts the probability of overall wave height If no freak wave occurs, the Rayleigh ($H_{rms}$) distribution agrees well with wave height distribution for the most of wave height ranges. The wave height distribution of freak waves of which height are less than 10 m shows similar tendency compared with freak waves greater than 10 m. The value of $H_{max}/H_{1/3}$ is related to the kurtosis of wave elevation. It seems that there exists threshold value of the kurtosis for the occurrence of freak waves.

• IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.361-367
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• 2014

This paper introduces balancing energy and memory consumption for lifetime increase of wireless sensor network. In cluster-based wireless sensor network, sensor nodes adjacent of cluster heads have a tendency to deplete their own battery energy and cluster heads occupy memory space significantly. If the nodes close to region where events occur frequently consume their energy and memory fully, network might be destroyed even though most of nodes are still alive. Therefore, it needs to balance network energy and memory with consideration of event occurrence probability so that network lifetime is increased. We show a method of balancing wireless sensor network energy and memory to organize cluster groups and elect cluster heads in terms of event occurrence probability.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.611-618
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• 2003

It can be said that the relationship between the maneuvering ability of operators and the navigational environment affects the safe degree of navigation in the collision avoidance situation. In order to reduce the occurrence probability of accident and to maintain the safety, it is necessary to clarify the relationship between human behavior and navigational environment. In this study, therefore, we analyzed and discussed the relationship between the maneuvering characteristics and the safety focused on human behavior as a fundamental factor of marine accidents using ship handling simulator and questionnaire. As a result, we concluded that navigational environment changes variously and the maneuvering ability of operators also varies with the navigational environment, and the ship handling characteristics strongly affect the occurrence probability of accident.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.71-76
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is the development, application and assessment of probability and artificial neural network methods for assessing landslide susceptibility in a chosen study area. As the basic analysis tool, a Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for spatial data management. A probability method was used for calculating the rating of the relative importance of each factor class to landslide occurrence, For calculating the weight of the relative importance of each factor to landslide occurrence, an artificial neural network method was developed. Using these methods, the landslide susceptibility index was calculated using the rating and weight, and a landslide susceptibility map was produced using the index. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis, with and without weights, were confirmed from comparison with the landslide location data. The comparison result with weighting was better than the results without weighting. The calculated weight and rating can be used to landslide susceptibility mapping.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2002.09a
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• pp.330-337
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• 2002

The objective of the earthquake resistant design of structures is to satisfy on the one side the minimization of damage requirement under earthquakes with high probability of occurrence during the design life and on the other side the no collapse requirement under the design seismic event with low probability of occurrence. The two requirements are satisfied with the minimum strength of substructure as well as the ductile failure mechanism presented in the codes. In this study seismic performance is evaluated with two bridges which have steel box superstructures and T type, II type piers as substructures. In order to satisfy the two requirements redesign of both substructures and steel bearings are carried out.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.107-113
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• 2002

LPG has been well known as a clean alternative fuel for vehicles. Recently, several LPG engines for heavy duty vehicles have been developed, which can replace some diesel engines that are one of the main sources for air pollution in the urban area. Because cylinder bore of heavy duty LPG engine is larger than that of gasoline, the study of knock characteristics of LPG engine are needed. In this study, the knock characteristics were investigated with various engine speed, air excess ratios and LPG fuel compositions. Experimental results indicated that the Knock occurrence probability decreases with increasing engine speed and propane fraction of fuel. The Knock occurrence probability is highest at excess air ratio of 1 and decreases as the mixture strength became leaner.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.957-960
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• 2006

In order to predict the accumulated damages by cyclic freeze-thaw, a regression analysis by the Response Surface Method (RSM) is used. RSM has merits when the other probabilistic simulation techniques can not guarantee the convergence of probability of occurrence or when the others can not differentiate the derivative terms of limit state functions, which are composed of random design variables in the model of complex system or the system having higher reliability. For composing limit state function, the important parameters for cyclic freeze-thaw-deterioration of concrete structures, such as water to cement ratio, entrained air pores, and the number of cycles of freezing and thawing, are used as input parameters of RSM. The predicted results of relative dynamic modulus and residual strains after 300 cycles of freeze-thaw for specimens show very good agreements with the experimental results. The RSM result can be used to predict the probability of occurrence for designer specified critical values. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the life cycle management of concrete structures considering the accumulated damages by the cyclic freeze-thaw by the use of proposed prediction method.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Technology of Plasticity Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.43-45
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• 2008

According to industrial development, Ingots are more large and various. In particular large STS ingot. The probability of shrinkage cavity occurrence is higher than carbon steel and alloy steel. To manufacture ultra clean steel the technical development is nearly necessary for example controlling inclusions and total [H]. In this study, after measured the mold temperature and adjusted thermo conductivity of STS steel and compared existing mold to new one with CAE. As a result, the new mold more reduced than existing mold for the probability of shrinkage cavity occurrence.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.77-89
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• 1999

Simulating rare events, such as probability of cell loss in ATM networks, machine failure in highly reliable systems, requires huge simulation efforts due to the low chance of occurrence. Importance Sampling (IS) has been applied to accelerate the occurrence of rare events. However, it has a drawback of effective biasing scheme to make the estimator of IS unbiased. Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS) employs an estimated sampling distribution of IS to the system of interest during the course of simulation. We propose Nonparametric Adaptive Importance Sampling (NAIS) technique which is nonparametrical version of AIS. We test NAIS to estimate a probability of rare event in M/M/1 queueing model. Comparing with classical Monte Carlo simulation, the computational efficiency and variance reductions gained via NAIS are substantial. A possible extension of NAIS regarding with random number generation is also discussed.