• The Plant Pathology Journal
• /
• 제31권4호
• /
• pp.350-362
• /
• 2015

A disease forecast model for bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice, which is caused by Burkholderia glumae, was developed in this study. The model, which was named 'BGRcast', determined daily conduciveness of weather conditions to epidemic development of BGR and forecasted risk of BGR development. All data that were used to develop and validate the BGRcast model were collected from field observations on disease incidence at Naju, Korea during 1998-2004 and 2010. In this study, we have proposed the environmental conduciveness as a measure of conduciveness of weather conditions for population growth of B. glumae and panicle infection in the field. The BGRcast calculated daily environmental conduciveness, $C_i$, based on daily minimum temperature and daily average relative humidity. With regard to the developmental stages of rice plants, the epidemic development of BGR was divided into three phases, i.e., lag, inoculum build-up and infection phases. Daily average of $C_i$ was calculated for the inoculum build-up phase ($C_{inf}$) and the infection phase ($C_{inc}$). The $C_{inc}$ and $C_{inf}$ were considered environmental conduciveness for the periods of inoculum build-up in association with rice plants and panicle infection during the heading stage, respectively. The BGRcast model was able to forecast actual occurrence of BGR at the probability of 71.4% and its false alarm ratio was 47.6%. With the thresholds of $C_{inc}=0.3$ and $C_{inf}=0.5$, the model was able to provide advisories that could be used to make decisions on whether to spray bactericide at the preand post-heading stage.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제49권10호
• /
• pp.877-885
• /
• 2016

본 연구에서는 기상학적 가뭄지수인 표준강수지수(Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI)를 이용하여 우리나라 전역에 대한 가뭄예측의 시공간적인 평가를 수행하였다. 또한 다층 퍼셉트론 인공신경망(Multi Layer Perceptron-Artificial Neural Network, MLP-ANN) 예측 기법을 이용하여 SPI(3), (6)에 대한 선행예보시간별 가뭄 예측을 실시하였다. 입력 자료는 기상청 산하의 59개 관측소에서 관측된 기상자료를 활용하였고, 관측자료 기간은 1976~2015년이다. 예측 모델의 성능평가는 기준점(Threshold)에 따른 가뭄 발생유무와 같은 이진분류 혼동행렬을 구성하여 Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) score와 조건부 확률에 따른 F score를 산정하여 예측 성능평가를 수행하였다. 예측성능에 대한 ROC 분석결과 다층 퍼셉트론 인공신경망(MLP-ANN) 모형을 적용한 가뭄예측성능이 매우 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, SPI (3)은 2개월, SPI (6)는 5개월 정도의 선행예측이 충분히 가능한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제19권5호
• /
• pp.81-89
• /
• 2018

본 연구의 목적은 플랜트 건설사업에서 모듈러 공법의 적용이 확대됨에 따라 모듈러 플랜트에 대한 업무특성을 고려하여 위험을 평가하고 위험에 대응하기 위한 예비비를 예측하는 것이다. 연구방법은 모듈러 플랜트의 업무특성을 고려하여 위험의 영향을 평가하기 위한 모델(방법)과 예비비를 예측하기 위한 모델(방법)을 제시한다. 그리고 제시된 모델을 기반으로 모듈러 플랜트 건설사업 1곳을 사례로 선정하여 위험요인의 영향을 평가하고 예비비를 예측한다. 상기와 같은 목적과 방법에 따라 도출된 결과는 다음과 같다. 위험요인의 발생확률과 영향점수를 평가하여 중요 위험요인 15개를 선정하였다. 그리고 모듈러 플랜트의 특성을 고려하기 위하여 설계(E), 구매(P), 제작(F), 운송(T), 시공(C)단계로 업무를 분류하여 예측된 예비비는 기초사업비(610,503,596 천원) 대비 약 6.739%이며, 설계(E) 2.850%, 구매(P) 6.225%, 제작(F) 6.211%, 운송(T) 4.165%, 시공(C) 8.168%로 도출되었다. 본 모델은 위험관리를 위한 의사결정 과정에서 정량적인 결과를 도출하는 방법으로 활용된다.

• 방사선산업학회지
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.123-132
• /
• 2014

After the nuclear accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plants (FDNPPs) on 11 March 2011, a large amount of radioactive materials has been released into the atmosphere and the ocean. A compartment model is used to evaluate the circulation characteristics and the spatiotemporal concentration distributions of radionuclides in the ocean. In the comparison with observed concentrations of $^{137}Cs$ in seawater, calculated concentrations by the compartment model were well agreed with them. On the basis of these results, we performed evaluation of the effective dose and the cancer risk. In the early stage of the accident, the effective doses from ingestion of the seafood near the Fukushima region were much higher than 1 mSv which is the value of the annual effective dose limit to individual recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). However, the effective doses by ingestion of the seafood decreased below 1 mSv as distance from the FDNPPs increased and time passed. In addition, it was estimated that the cancer risks by intake of the contaminated marine products were less than natural occurrence probability of cancer. Consequently, it was inferred that the health risk due to the $^{137}Cs$ was low after since mid-term period of the accident.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
• /
• 제24권1호
• /
• pp.1-16
• /
• 2008

Steam and advection fogs are frequently observed in the Yellow Sea from March to July except for May. This study uses remote sensing (RS) data for the monitoring of sea fog. Meteorological data obtained from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station provided a valuable information for the occurrence of steam and advection fogs as a ground truth. The RS data used in this study were GOES-9, MTSAT-1R images and QuikSCAT wind data. A dual channel difference (DCD) approach using IR and shortwave IR channel of GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R satellites was applied to detect sea fog. The results showed that DCD, texture-related measurement and the weak wind condition are required to separate the sea fog from the low cloud. The QuikSCAT wind data was used to provide the wind speed criteria for a fog event. The laplacian computation was designed for a measurement of the homogeneity. A new combined method, which includes DCD, QuikSCAT wind speed and laplacian computation, was applied to the twelve cases with GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R. The threshold values for DCD, QuikSCAT wind speed and laplacian are -2.0 K, $8m\;s^{-1}$ and 0.1, respectively. The validation results showed that the new combined method slightly improves the detection of sea fog compared to DCD method: improvements of the new combined method are $5{\sim}6%$ increases in the Heidke skill score, 10% decreases in the probability of false detection, and $30{\sim}40%$ increases in the odd ratio.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.204-204
• /
• 2016

Thailand had set the National Water Management Strategy which covered main six areas in the next 12 years, i.e., by priority: (1) water for household, (2) water for agricultural and industrial production, (3) water for flood and drought management, (4) water for quality issue, (5) water from forest conservation and soil erosion protection, (6) water resources management. However due to the climate change impact, there is a question for all strategies is whether to complete this mission under future climate change. If the impact affects our target, we have to clarify how to mitigate or to adapt with it. Vulnerability assessment was conducted under the framework of ADB's (with the parameters of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and the assessments were classified into groups due to their different characteristic and the framework of the National Water Management Strategy, i.e., water supply (rural and urban), water for development (agriculture and others), water disasters (floods (flash, overflow), drought, water quality). The assessments identified the parameters concerned and weight factors used for each groups via expert group discussions and by using GIS mapping technology, the vulnerability maps were produced. The maps were verified with present water situation data (floods, drought, water quality). From the analysis result of this water resources management strategy, we found that 30% of all projects face the big impacts, 40% with low impact, and 30% for no impact. It is clear that water-related agencies have to carefully take care approximately 70% of future projects to meet water resources management strategy. It is recommended that additional issues should be addressed to mitigate the impact from climate risk on water resource management of the country, i.e., water resources management under new risk based on development scenarios, relationship with area-based problems, priority definition by viewpoints of risk, vulnerability (impact and occurrence probability in past and future), water management system in emergency case and water reserve system, use of information, knowledge and technology in management, network cooperation and exchange of experiences, knowledge, technique for sustainable development with mitigation and adaptation, education and communication systems in risk, new impact, and emergency-reserve system. These issues will be described and discussed.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.154-154
• /
• 2018

To interpret the climate projections for the future as well as present, recognition of the consequences of the climate internal variability and quantification its uncertainty play a vital role. The Korean Peninsula belongs to the Far East Asian Monsoon region and its rainfall characteristics are very complex from time and space perspective. Its internal variability is expected to be large, but this variability has not been completely investigated to date especially using models of high temporal resolutions. Due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections, several studies adopted dynamic and statistical downscaling approaches to infer meterological forcing from climate change projections at local spatial scales and fine temporal resolutions. In this study, stochastic downscaling methodology was adopted to downscale daily GCM resolutions to hourly time scale using an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). After extracting factors of change from the GCM realizations, these were applied to the climatic statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series which can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. Further, 30 ensemble members of hourly precipitation were generated for each selected station to quantify uncertainty. Spatial map was generated to visualize as separated zones formed through K-means cluster algorithm which region is more inconsistent as compared to the climatological norm or in which region the probability of occurrence of the extremes event is high. The results showed that the stations located near the coastal regions are more uncertain as compared to inland regions. Such information will be ultimately helpful for planning future adaptation and mitigation measures against extreme events.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제6권5_6호
• /
• pp.595-618
• /
• 2010

This paper describes the application of a wireless sensor network to a 31 meter-tall medieval tower located in the city of Trento, Italy. The effort is motivated by preservation of the integrity of a set of frescoes decorating the room on the second floor, representing one of most important International Gothic artworks in Europe. The specific application demanded development of customized hardware and software. The wireless module selected as the core platform allows reliable wireless communication at low cost with a long service life. Sensors include accelerometers, deformation gauges, and thermometers. A multi-hop data collection protocol was applied in the software to improve the system's flexibility and scalability. The system has been operating since September 2008, and in recent months the data loss ratio was estimated as less than 0.01%. The data acquired so far are in agreement with the prediction resulting a priori from the 3-dimensional FEM. Based on these data a Bayesian updating procedure is employed to real-time estimate the probability of abnormal condition states. This first period of operation demonstrated the stability and reliability of the system, and its ability to recognize any possible occurrence of abnormal conditions that could jeopardize the integrity of the frescos.

• 한국방재안전학회논문집
• /
• 제14권3호
• /
• pp.39-49
• /
• 2021

고용노동부가 최근 발표한 '2020년 12월 말 산업재해 현황'에 따르면 산업별로 산업재해 대상이 되고 있다. 건설업별 사고사망자 수, 사고유형별 사고사망자 수, 사업장 규모별 사고사망자 수는 5~49명으로 소규모 건설현장에서 추락사고가 대부분 발생한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 도시형 생활주택은 소규모 건설현장으로 낙상사고 발생 확률이 매우 높다. 재해 발생을 위한 가을 모의훈련은 공공부문의 대형 건설 발주기관 위주로 실시되며 소규모 건설현장에서 주택건설업체가 실시하는 것은 국내 최초다. 본 연구는 도시생활주택의 정의, 시공특성, 안전관리 실태 등을 분석·제시하고 추락사고 발생시 긴급구호절차 매뉴얼을 개발·확산하여 사망을 최소화하였다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
• /
• 제30권1호
• /
• pp.123-149
• /
• 2021

Purpose The purpose of this study is to define the anti-ESG activities of companies recognized by media by reflecting ESG recently attracted attention. This study extracts keywords for ESG controversies through association rule mining. Design/methodology/approach A research framework is designed to extract keywords for ESG controversies as follows: 1) From DeepSearch DB, we collect 23,837 articles on anti-ESG activities exposed to 130 media from 2013 to 2018 of 294 listed companies with ESG ratings 2) We set keywords related to environment, social, and governance, and delete or merge them with other keywords based on the support, confidence, and lift derived from association rule mining. 3) We illustrate the importance of keywords and the relevance between keywords through density, degree centrality, and closeness centrality on network analysis. Findings We identify a total of 26 keywords for ESG controversies. 'Gapjil' records the highest frequency, followed by 'corruption', 'bribery', and 'collusion'. Out of the 26 keywords, 16 are related to governance, 8 to social, and 2 to environment. The keywords ranked high are mostly related to the responsibility of shareholders within corporate governance. ESG controversies associated with social issues are often related to unfair trade. As a result of confidence analysis, the keywords related to social and governance are clustered and the probability of mutual occurrence between keywords is high within each group. In particular, in the case of "owner's arrest", it is caused by "bribery" and "misappropriation" with an 80% confidence level. The result of network analysis shows that 'corruption' is located in the center, which is the most likely to occur alone, and is highly related to 'breach of duty', 'embezzlement', and 'bribery'.