• Title/Summary/Keyword: observation-error model

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Case of Non-face-to-face Teaching-learning in the subject of "Research and Guidance on Early Childhood Materials" in the Pre-service Early Childhood Teacher Training Program (예비유아교사 양성과정의 '유아 교재교구 연구 및 지도법' 교과목의 비대면 교수-학습 사례)

  • Kim, Ji-hyun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.227-238
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    • 2022
  • This study is the case of non-face-to-face teaching-learning in the subject of "Research and Guidance on Early Childhood Materials" in the pre-child teacher training program. The study conducted a non-face-to-face teaching-learning model for 18 students at B University in region C who took lectures on 'Research and Guidance on Early Childhood Materials' in the first semester of 2021. As a non-face-to-face teaching-learning model, it consisted of video lectures, real-time zoom classes, and various forms of 'communication' through frequent feedback and interaction and 'participation'. As a teaching-learning strategy for the participation of pre-service early childhood teachers, comment on questions related to early childhood materials, in-depth reflection on early childhood materials through writing reflective journals and observation reports, and step-by-step presentation of making childhood materials plans, processes, and results were carried out. As a result of exploring the experience of making early childhood materials for pre-service early childhood teachers, factors such as "growth experience through trial and error," "thinking from child's point of view", "Increase efficiency and reduce burden through communication", "Process rather than result" and "The importance of communication and interaction in non-face-to-face classes"

The Advanced Bias Correction Method based on Quantile Mapping for Long-Range Ensemble Climate Prediction for Improved Applicability in the Agriculture Field (농업적 활용성 제고를 위한 분위사상법 기반의 앙상블 장기기후예측자료 보정방법 개선연구)

  • Jo, Sera;Lee, Joonlee;Shim, Kyo Moon;Ahn, Joong-Bae;Hur, Jina;Kim, Yong Seok;Choi, Won Jun;Kang, Mingu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2022
  • The optimization of long-range ensemble climate prediction for rice phenology model with advanced bias correction method is conducted. The daily long-range forecast(6-month) of mean/ minimum/maximum temperature and observation of January to October during 1991-2021 is collected for rice phenology prediction. In this study, the concept of "buffer period" is newly introduced to reduce the problem after bias correction by quantile mapping with constructing the transfer function by month, which evokes the discontinuity at the borders of each month. The four experiments with different lengths of buffer periods(5, 10, 15, 20 days) are implemented, and the best combinations of buffer periods are selected per month and variable. As a result, it is found that root mean square error(RMSE) of temperatures decreases in the range of 4.51 to 15.37%. Furthermore, this improvement of climatic variables quality is linked to the performance of the rice phenology model, thereby reducing RMSE in every rice phenology step at more than 75~100% of Automated Synoptic Observing System stations. Our results indicate the possibility and added values of interdisciplinary study between atmospheric and agriculture sciences.

Evaluating the Predictability of Heat and Cold Damages of Soybean in South Korea using PNU CGCM -WRF Chain (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 우리나라 콩의 고온해 및 저온해에 대한 예측성 검증)

  • Myeong-Ju, Choi;Joong-Bae, Ahn;Young-Hyun, Kim;Min-Kyung, Jung;Kyo-Moon, Shim;Jina, Hur;Sera, Jo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.218-233
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    • 2022
  • The long-term (1986~2020) predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean is evaluated using the daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) data produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Predictability evaluation methods for the number of days of damages are Normalized Standard Deviations (NSD), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Hit Rate (HR), and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). First, we verified the simulation performance of the Tmax and Tmin, which are the variables that define the heat and cold damages of soybean. As a result, although there are some differences depending on the month starting with initial conditions from January (01RUN) to May (05RUN), the result after a systematic bias correction by the Variance Scaling method is similar to the observation compared to the bias-uncorrected one. The simulation performance for correction Tmax and Tmin from March to October is overall high in the results (ENS) averaged by applying the Simple Composite Method (SCM) from 01RUN to 05RUN. In addition, the model well simulates the regional patterns and characteristics of the number of days of heat and cold damages by according to the growth stages of soybean, compared with observations. In ENS, HR and HSS for heat damage (cold damage) of soybean have ranged from 0.45~0.75, 0.02~0.10 (0.49~0.76, -0.04~0.11) during each growth stage. In conclusion, 01RUN~05RUN and ENS of PNU CGCM-WRF Chain have the reasonable performance to predict heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean in South Korea.

An Adjustment of Cloud Factors for Continuity and Consistency of Insolation Estimations between GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R (GOES-9과 MTSAT-1R 위성 간의 일사량 산출의 연속성과 일관성 확보를 위한 구름 감쇠 계수의 조정)

  • Kim, In-Hwan;Han, Kyung-Soo;Yeom, Jong-Min
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2012
  • Surface insolation is one of the major indicators for climate research over the Earth system. For the climate research, long-term data and wide range of spatial coverage from the data observed by two or more of satellites of the same orbit are needed. It is important to improve the continuity and consistency of the derived products, such as surface insolation, from different satellites. In this study, surface insolations based on Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-9) and Multi-functional Transport Satellites (MTSAT-1R) were compared during overlap period using physical model of insolation to find ways to improve the consistency and continuity between two satellites through comparison of each channel data and ground observation data. The thermal infrared brightness temperature of two satellites show a relatively good agreement between two satellites : rootmean square error (RMSE)=5.595 Kelvin; Bias=2.065 Kelvin. Whereas, visible channels shown a quite different values, but it distributed similar tendency. And the surface insolations from two satellites are different from the ground observation data. To improve the quality of retrieved insolations, we have reproduced surface insolation of each satellite through adjustment of the Cloud Factor, and the Cloud Factor for GOES-9 satellite is modified based on the analysis result of difference channel data. As a result, the insolations estimated from GOES-9 for cloudy conditions show good agreement with MTSAT-1R and ground observation : RMSE=$83.439W\;m^{-2}$ Bias=$27.296W\;m^{-2}$. The result improved accuracy confirms that the modification of Cloud Factor for GOES-9 can improve the continuity and consistency of the insolations derived from two or more satellites.

Study on water quality prediction in water treatment plants using AI techniques (AI 기법을 활용한 정수장 수질예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Kang, Yujin;Song, Jinwoo;Kim, Juhwan;Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Soojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.151-164
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    • 2024
  • In water treatment plants supplying potable water, the management of chlorine concentration in water treatment processes involving pre-chlorination or intermediate chlorination requires process control. To address this, research has been conducted on water quality prediction techniques utilizing AI technology. This study developed an AI-based predictive model for automating the process control of chlorine disinfection, targeting the prediction of residual chlorine concentration downstream of sedimentation basins in water treatment processes. The AI-based model, which learns from past water quality observation data to predict future water quality, offers a simpler and more efficient approach compared to complex physicochemical and biological water quality models. The model was tested by predicting the residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basins at Plant, using multiple regression models and AI-based models like Random Forest and LSTM, and the results were compared. For optimal prediction of residual chlorine concentration, the input-output structure of the AI model included the residual chlorine concentration upstream of the sedimentation basin, turbidity, pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity, inflow of raw water, alkalinity, NH3, etc. as independent variables, and the desired residual chlorine concentration of the effluent from the sedimentation basin as the dependent variable. The independent variables were selected from observable data at the water treatment plant, which are influential on the residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basin. The analysis showed that, for Plant, the model based on Random Forest had the lowest error compared to multiple regression models, neural network models, model trees, and other Random Forest models. The optimal predicted residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basin presented in this study is expected to enable real-time control of chlorine dosing in previous treatment stages, thereby enhancing water treatment efficiency and reducing chemical costs.

Sensitivity Experiment of Surface Reflectance to Error-inducing Variables Based on the GEMS Satellite Observations (GEMS 위성관측에 기반한 지면반사도 산출 시에 오차 유발 변수에 대한 민감도 실험)

  • Shin, Hee-Woo;Yoo, Jung-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.53-66
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    • 2018
  • The information of surface reflectance ($R_{sfc}$) is important for the heat balance and the environmental/climate monitoring. The $R_{sfc}$ sensitivity to error-induced variables for the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) retrieval from geostationary-orbit satellite observations at 300-500 nm was investigated, utilizing polar-orbit satellite data of the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI), and the radiative transfer model (RTM) experiment. The variables in this study can be cloud, Rayleigh-scattering, aerosol, ozone and surface type. The cloud detection in high-resolution MODIS pixels ($1km{\times}1km$) was compared with that in GEMS-scale pixels ($8km{\times}7km$). The GEMS detection was consistent (~79%) with the MODIS result. However, the detection probability in partially-cloudy (${\leq}40%$) GEMS pixels decreased due to other effects (i.e., aerosol and surface type). The Rayleigh-scattering effect in RGB images was noticeable over ocean, based on the RTM calculation. The reflectance at top of atmosphere ($R_{toa}$) increased with aerosol amounts in case of $R_{sfc}$<0.2, but decreased in $R_{sfc}{\geq}0.2$. The $R_{sfc}$ errors due to the aerosol increased with wavelength in the UV, but were constant or slightly decreased in the visible. The ozone absorption was most sensitive at 328 nm in the UV region (328-354 nm). The $R_{sfc}$ error was +0.1 because of negative total ozone anomaly (-100 DU) under the condition of $R_{sfc}=0.15$. This study can be useful to estimate $R_{sfc}$ uncertainties in the GEMS retrieval.

Retrieval of Hourly Aerosol Optical Depth Using Top-of-Atmosphere Reflectance from GOCI-II and Machine Learning over South Korea (GOCI-II 대기상한 반사도와 기계학습을 이용한 남한 지역 시간별 에어로졸 광학 두께 산출)

  • Seyoung Yang;Hyunyoung Choi;Jungho Im
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_3
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    • pp.933-948
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    • 2023
  • Atmospheric aerosols not only have adverse effects on human health but also exert direct and indirect impacts on the climate system. Consequently, it is imperative to comprehend the characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols. Numerous research endeavors have been undertaken to monitor aerosols, predominantly through the retrieval of aerosol optical depth (AOD) via satellite-based observations. Nonetheless, this approach primarily relies on a look-up table-based inversion algorithm, characterized by computationally intensive operations and associated uncertainties. In this study, a novel high-resolution AOD direct retrieval algorithm, leveraging machine learning, was developed using top-of-atmosphere reflectance data derived from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager-II (GOCI-II), in conjunction with their differences from the past 30-day minimum reflectance, and meteorological variables from numerical models. The Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) technique was harnessed, and the resultant estimates underwent rigorous validation encompassing random, temporal, and spatial N-fold cross-validation (CV) using ground-based observation data from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD. The three CV results consistently demonstrated robust performance, yielding R2=0.70-0.80, RMSE=0.08-0.09, and within the expected error (EE) of 75.2-85.1%. The Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) analysis confirmed the substantial influence of reflectance-related variables on AOD estimation. A comprehensive examination of the spatiotemporal distribution of AOD in Seoul and Ulsan revealed that the developed LGBM model yielded results that are in close concordance with AERONET AOD over time, thereby confirming its suitability for AOD retrieval at high spatiotemporal resolution (i.e., hourly, 250 m). Furthermore, upon comparing data coverage, it was ascertained that the LGBM model enhanced data retrieval frequency by approximately 8.8% in comparison to the GOCI-II L2 AOD products, ameliorating issues associated with excessive masking over very illuminated surfaces that are often encountered in physics-based AOD retrieval processes.

Analysis of Empirical Multiple Linear Regression Models for the Production of PM2.5 Concentrations (PM2.5농도 산출을 위한 경험적 다중선형 모델 분석)

  • Choo, Gyo-Hwang;Lee, Kyu-Tae;Jeong, Myeong-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.283-292
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the empirical models were established to estimate the concentrations of surface-level $PM_{2.5}$ over Seoul, Korea from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2013. We used six different multiple linear regression models with aerosol optical thickness (AOT), ${\AA}ngstr{\ddot{o}}m$ exponents (AE) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua satellites, meteorological data, and planetary boundary layer depth (PBLD) data. The results showed that $M_6$ was the best empirical model and AOT, AE, relative humidity (RH), wind speed, wind direction, PBLD, and air temperature data were used as input data. Statistical analysis showed that the result between the observed $PM_{2.5}$ and the estimated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations using $M_6$ model were correlations (R=0.62) and root square mean error ($RMSE=10.70{\mu}gm^{-3}$). In addition, our study show that the relation strongly depends on the seasons due to seasonal observation characteristics of AOT, with a relatively better correlation in spring (R=0.66) and autumntime (R=0.75) than summer and wintertime (R was about 0.38 and 0.56). These results were due to cloud contamination of summertime and the influence of snow/ice surface of wintertime, compared with those of other seasons. Therefore, the empirical multiple linear regression model used in this study showed that the AOT data retrieved from the satellite was important a dominant variable and we will need to use additional weather variables to improve the results of $PM_{2.5}$. Also, the result calculated for $PM_{2.5}$ using empirical multi linear regression model will be useful as a method to enable monitoring of atmospheric environment from satellite and ground meteorological data.

Quantification of Temperature Effects on Flowering Date Determination in Niitaka Pear (신고 배의 개화기 결정에 미치는 온도영향의 정량화)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Seung-Heui;Park, Gun-Hwan;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2009
  • Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from $4^{\circ}C$ to $10^{\circ}C$ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.

Improving the Usage of the Korea Meteorological Administration's Digital Forecasts in Agriculture: IV. Estimation of Daily Sunshine Duration and Solar Radiation Based on 'Sky Condition' Product (기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안: IV. '하늘상태'를 이용한 일조시간 및 일 적산 일사량 상세화)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.281-289
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    • 2015
  • Information on sunshine duration and solar radiation are indispensable to the understanding of crop growth and development. Yet, relevant variables are not available in the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) digital forecast. We proposed the methods of estimating sunshine duration and solar radiation based on the 'sky condition' of digital forecast products and validated using the observed data. The sky condition values (1 for clear, 2 for partly cloudy, 3 for cloudy, and 4 for overcast) were collected from 22 weather stations at 3-hourly intervals from August 2013 to July 2015. According to the observed relationship, these data were converted to the corresponding amount of clouds on the 0 to 10 scale (0 for clear, 4 for partly cloudy, 7 for cloudy, and 10 for overcast). An equation for the cloud amount-sunshine duration conversion was derived from the 3-year observation data at three weather stations with the highest clear day sunshine ratio (i.e., Daegwallyeong, Bukgangneung, and Busan). Then, the estimated sunshine hour data were used to run the Angstrom-Prescott model which was parameterized with the long-term KMA observations, resulting in daily solar radiation for the three weather stations. Comparison of the estimated sunshine duration and solar radiation with the observed at those three stations showed that the root mean square error ranged from 1.5 to 1.7 hours for sunshine duration and from 2.5 to $3.0MJ\;m^{-2}\;day^{-1}$ for solar radiation, respectively.