• 한국조사연구학회지:조사연구
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.23-45
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• 2003

서구의 선거에서 일관성 있게 발견되는 교육과 투표율의 양의 관계가 한국에서는 음의 관계로 나타나는 하나의 수수께끼와 같은 현상이 있다. 본 연구는 다운스의 합리적 선택론에 공약실천확률(p')이라는 새로운 개념을 첨가하여 이 문제를 풀고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는, 한국과 같이 정치가나 선거제도에 관한 신뢰가 낮은 사회에서는 교육수준이 높을수록 공약실천에 대한 불신감이 높고 결국 기권할 가능성이 높다는 가설을 제시하고 이를 경험적으로 검증하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 사회인구적 특성으로 기권자들을 직접 설명하는 기존의 연구와는 달리. 합리성 요인이라는 매개변수를 추가하여 설명함으로써 한국의 기권자들을 보다 종합적으로 분석하였다. 이러한 본 연구의 설명은 다운스의 합리적 선택론에 기반한 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.445-454
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• 2021

Leader and leadership are one of the important aspects in the life of a country. This study aims to predict the intention of young voters to vote for state leader elections by expanding the theory of planned behavior to the Indonesian context. Apart from the importance of the presidential election, research rarely uses the theory of planned behavior, and to the best of researchers' knowledge, there are no studies that have applied the theory of planned behavior to predict the intention to vote for the president. Therefore, this study is an attempt to fill that gap. Two hundred questionnaires were distributed using non-probability purposive sampling. Data analysis was carried out using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The results showed that attitude and behavior control were positively related to voters' intention to elect presidential candidates. Furthermore, information from social media also has a positive relationship with the attitude of choosing presidential candidates. However, the results also show that subjective norms do not have a significant relationship with voters' intention. This study contributes knowledge to researchers, practitioners, and policymakers about the factors that influence youth intention to vote in Indonesia, namely, attitudes, perceived behavior control, and information from social media.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제18권11호
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• pp.306-316
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• 2018

본 연구는 정치인의 종합적 이미지에 대하여 유권자가 가지고 있는 가치와 태도를 밝혀내고 유권자가 갖는 주관성의 구조를 심층적으로 알아보았다. 이러한 작업을 통하여 유권자의 정치적 행동에 미치는 영향력을 설명하는 것이 연구의 목적이다. 본 연구에서는 이재명 경기도지사 인식에 대한 3개의 유형이 도출되었는데, 제1유형(N=4) : 뚜렷한 원칙과 추진력 있는 개혁가, 제2유형[(N=12) : 실행력 있는 실용적 정책가, 제3유형(N=4) : 정치적 야망을 달성하고자 하는 포퓰리스트로 분류되었다. 제1유형은 이재명 경기도지사는 기득권의 장벽을 허물 수 있는 적임자라는 의견을 보였고, 제2유형은 성남시장 재임 중에 보인 행정능력으로 유권자 피부에 와 닿는 실용적 정책을 펼칠 것으로 기대를 가지고 있었으며, 제3유형은 현실성이 떨어지는 주장으로 자신의 정책과 태도만 부각시켜 인지도를 높이고 인기만 끌려는 태도에 우려를 표시했다.

• 의정연구
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.5-40
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• 2021

2021년 4.7 재보궐 선거에서 여당인 더불어민주당은 최근의 선거에서 확인된 탈 중간평가적 성격의 흐름을 깨고 기록적인 참패를 당했다. 왜 더불어민주당은 최근 선거의 흐름과 달리 큰 점수 차의 패배를 당한 것일까? 본 연구는 이러한 물음에 대한 답을 찾기 위해 4.7 재보궐 선거 이후 실시한 유권자 의식 조사 자료를 바탕으로 개별 유권자의 투표행태를 분석하는 한편으로 그와 같은 유권자 선택을 초래한 배경과 원인이 무엇인지를 살펴본다. 연구 결과, 4.7 재보궐 선거에서는 선행연구에서 확인된 바와 마찬가지로 정부여당에 대한 심판 여론이 강하게 나타났으며, 네거티브 선거가 전개되었다. 그러나 이번 재보궐 선거의 과정과 결과를 보다 구체적으로 살펴보면 일반적인 재보궐 선거와는 다른 모습이 확인된다. 과거 재보궐 선거에서 정권심판은 정치적 비중이 낮은 선거에서 여당 성향 유권자의 소극적인 참여나 정치적 부담이 덜한 상황에서 더욱 극대화되어 나타나는 적극적인 심판 심리에 기인했다. 그러나 이번 재보궐 선거에서는 이와는 반대로 정치적 비중이 높은 선거에서 더불어민주당 성향 유권자와 무당파 유권자의 적극적인 심판 심리가 선거의 중간평가적 성격을 강화하는 쪽으로 영향을 미쳤다. 아울러 야당을 지지하는 보수 성향 유권자의 결집 역시 선거의 중간평가적 성격 강화에 강한 영향을 미쳤음을 알 수 있다.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.63-92
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• 2019

What motivates split-ticket voting in mixed electoral systems, where voters choose one party in district races and another party on the party list ballot? While much of the literature assumes strategic intent, three aspects commonly are overlooked: the competitiveness of district races, the presence of a district candidate from one's preferred party, and whether voters know the electoral threshold for party list seats. Furthermore, few studies disaggregate types of split-ticket voting (e.g. not voting for one's preferred party in a district vs. party list). Taiwan provides an intriguing case study for analysis, not only as a relatively new adopter of a mixed system, but also the presence of additional conditions that would encourage at least the consideration of a split ticket. Using survey data from the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS) after the Taiwan's 2016 Legislative Yuan election, this analysis finds that knowing the threshold, the winner's margin, and the placement of a district candidate from one's preferred party all influence split-ticket voting among those with a partisan preference. However, closer inspection identifies a distinction between defecting from the district versus the party list. Evidence shows that district competitiveness and candidate placement influences defection from the district candidate, while the electoral threshold influences defection from the party list. The results add to our understanding of strategic and non-strategic incentives in mixed systems.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.196-227
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• 2015

The premise of the intentional model of split-ticket voting is that some voters split their tickets simply because they prefer divided government and believe in constant "checks and balances." This article examines whether this premise stands firm in an emerging democracy like Taiwan. That is, by using survey data in Taiwan, we explore whether one's attitude toward divided or unified government is "real." We hypothesize that a citizen's attitude toward "checks and balances" is subject to change, and conditional on whether her preferred party is in power. Specifically, we speculate that a citizen would tend to hold the balancing perspective or favor divided government, if her preferred party is in opposition. However, if her preferred party becomes the ruling party, she would be more likely to oppose (hold) the balancing (non-balancing) perspective or favor unified government. We then utilize panel survey data embedded in Taiwan's Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to verify our hypothesis.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.392-400
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• 2000

이 논문에서는 전자선거 프로토콜 중에서 무기명 비밀투표 방식에서 요구되는 안전요구사항을 만족시킬수 있도록 RSA 공개키 암호 시스템과 내용 은닉서명 기법을 이용한 VIOT 프로토콜을 이용하여 투표자의 프라이버시를 제공하고 투표자나 선거위원의 부정행위를 탐지할 수 있는 송수신 부인봉쇄 기능을 갖는 새로운 전자선거 프로토콜을 제안하였다.

• 한국조사연구학회지:조사연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.33-55
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 2008년 18대 총선의 출구조사 자료를 이용하여 출구조사의 정확성을 평가할 수 있는 총조사오차 개념을 새로 정의하고, 출구조사에서 발생하는 총조사오차가 투표소 추출오차와 투표자 선정 및 응답 과정에서 발생하는 실사오차 중 어떤 것에 더 많은 영향을 받는지 분석했다. 또한 선거구별 무응답률이 총조사오차와 실사오차에 미치는 영향을 분석하였고, 중앙선거관리위원회의 투표율 분석자료를 이용하여 출구조사 표본의 대표성을 검증했다. 분석 결과 선거구 내 표본 투표소 추출 관련 오차보다는 표본투표소 내에서 투표자 선택 및 응답 과정에서 발생하는 오차가 더 컸던 것으로 나타났다. 또한 무응답률과 실사오차는 양의 상관관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 특정한 지지성향을 갖는 사람들의 응답 거절로 인해 표본의 대표성이 떨어지고, 결과적으로 오차가 커지는 것으로 해석될 수 있다. 아울러 선관위와 출구조사 자료에 대한 카이제곱 검정을 통해 성/연령대별 구성비에 유의한 차이가 있다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• 제1권4호
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• pp.307-344
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• 2014

Political parties would normally claim that their campaign and communication materials have effects on voters, be it on their supporters or their opponents during election campaigns. However, such effects are assumed effects by the parties unless voters are themselves assessed about the effects of such materials on themselves. The supporters of the parties are likely to regard such campaign materials as congenial to them but this may not be so with the opposition supporters who would regard such materials as negative. Taking the third-person effect to analyze effects on the audience as the theoretical framework, this study posited that opposition members would regard the materials as negative and thus would claim that they would not have any effect on them but they would likely say that such campaign materials would have effects on own party supporters. Davison (1983) posited that individuals will perceive that negative mediated messages would have their greatest impact not "on me" or "you" but on "them,"- the third person. Research suggests that people judge others to be more influenced than they are by media, advertising, libelous messages, media violence, pornography, and television drama. The theory referred to as the Third-person effect developed on the postulation that audience members would not admit that media had any direct effect on them, but would instead believe that the media influenced others, the third person (Tewksbury, Moy, & Weis, 2004; Price, Tewksbury, & Huang, 1998). On the other hand, while people would discount the effects of negative or biased messages on themselves, they would, under the notion of the First Person Effect, readily admit to being influenced by such messages. This study was based on studying the effects of political literature on party and opposition party supporters taking the messages to be positive to one group and biased and partisan to another group. The study focuses on the assumed effects of political literature on own party and opposition party supporters. It traces the degree of influence of Malaysia's largest political party, Barisan Nasional (BN) political communication literature on its own supporters and on non-BN party supporters. While the third-person effect assumes a null or minimal effect on one's self and some or strong effect on others, the question that arises are on welcoming favorable media effects on oneself and assuming unfavorable effects on others.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.113-131
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• 1996

This study was carried out to evaluate the relations among workers' general characteristics, work-related behaviors and health related behaviors in a steel industry with 1,134 workers in Pohang. The results were as follows; 1. The mean age of workers was 50 years old and working duration was 15 years and over. Most of them were married(94.5%) and had studied beyond high school (53.0%). They performed three shift work and most of them(63.0%) had experienced industial accidents. The frequency of noise and dust exposure was defined by a minimum of 6 hours per day, and workers complained about noise exposure(62.9%) and dust(55.6%). There were current smokers(67.7%), current drinkers(74.3%) and current exercising workers(32.3%) in the industry. The number of cigarette consumption in current drinkers was significantly high $(13.6{\pm}8.4\;pieces/day)$ and the alcohol consumption in current smokers was significantly high$(104.5{\pm}113.5\;g/wk)$. And the number of cigarette consumption of exercisers was significantly low and the alcohol consumption of exercisers was higher than non-exercisers. 3. The ratio of current smokers on frequent noise in exposed workers versus non-exposed workers was not significantly high but the current drinkers in frequent noise and dust exposed workers was significantly higher than non-exposed. 4. The normal levels of SGOT workers in non-smokers were significantly higher than in current smokers, and the normal levels of LFT (SGOT, SGPT, $\gamma-GTP$ workers in nondrinkers were significantly high. The normal levels of SBP and DBP workers in current smokers were not significantly high but were significantly high in non-drinkers. 5. The ratio of current smokers in voters unsatisfied with their job and working condition was higher than non-smokers, but the ratio of current drinkers in workers satisfied with their job and working condition were higher. 6. The significant factors for SGOT and $\gamma-GTP$ were age, the drinking amount and BMI. But the only significant factor for r-GTP was BMI. The significant factors for DBP were age, the alcohol consumption and BMI. And the significant factors for SBP were age, BMI.