• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.1201-1210
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• 2019

Stock price is characterized as being mutable, non-linear and stochastic. These key characteristics are known to have a direct influence on the stock markets globally. Given that the stock price data often contain both linear and non-linear patterns, no single model can be adequate in modelling and predicting time series data. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model cannot deal with non-linear relationships, however, it provides an accurate and effective way to process autocorrelation and non-stationary data in time series forecasting. On the other hand, the neural network provides an effective prediction of non-linear sequences. As a result, in this study, we used a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model to forecast the monthly closing price of the Shanghai composite index and Shenzhen component index.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.73-80
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• 2007

Cointegration(together with VARMA(vector ARMA)) has been proven to be useful for analyzing multivariate non-stationary data in the field of financial time series. It provides a linear combination (which turns out to be stationary series) of non-stationary component series. This linear combination equation is referred to as long term equilibrium between the component series. We consider two sets of Korean bivariate financial time series and then illustrate cointegration analysis. Specifically estimated VAR(vector AR) and VECM(vector error correction model) are obtained and CV(cointegrating vector) is found for each data sets.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.27-34
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• 2014

In this paper, we investigate the statistical correlation of the time series for temperature measured at the heat box in the automobile drying process. We show, in terms of the sample variance, that a significant non-linear correlation exists in the time series that consist of absolute temperature changes. To investigate further the non-linear correlation, we utilize the volatility, an important concept in the financial market, and induce volatility time series from absolute temperature changes. We analyze the time series of volatilities in terms of the de-trended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a method especially suitable for testing the long-range correlation of non-stationary data, from the correlation perspective. We uncover that the volatility exhibits a long-range correlation regardless of the window size. We also analyze the cross correlation between two (inlet and outlet) volatility time series to characterize any correlation between the two, and disclose the dependence of the correlation strength on the time lag. These results can contribute as important factors to the modeling of forecasting and management of the heat box's temperature.

• Coupled systems mechanics
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.297-313
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• 2023

This paper deals with delamination analysis of non-linear viscoelastic multilayered beam subjected to bending in the plane of the layers. For this purpose, first, a non-linear viscoelastic model is presented. In order to take into account the non-linear viscoelastic behaviour, a non-linear spring and a non-linear dashpot are assembled in series with a linear spring connected in parallel to a linear dashpot. The behaviours of the non-linear spring and dashpot are described by applying non-linear stress-strain and stress-rate of strain relationships, respectively. The constitutive law of the model is derived. Due to the non-linear spring and dashpot, the constitutive law is non-linear. This law is used for describing the time-dependent mechanical behaviour of the beam under consideration. The material properties involved in the constitutive law vary along the beam length due to the continuous material inhomogeneity of the layers. Solution of the strain energy release rate for the delamination is obtained by analyzing the balance of the energy with considering of the non-linear viscoelastic behaviour. The strain energy release rate is found also by using the complementary strain energy for verification. A parametric study is carried-out by using the solution obtained. The solutions derived and the results obtained help to understand the time-dependent delamination of non-linear viscoelastic beams under loading in the plane of layers.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.25-31
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• 2005

We know that the Hurst Exponent (HE) is a real number in [0, 1] which denotes randomness of time series. in this research, we suggest non-linear analysis of human biological signals through HE. The feasibility of human biological signals using inductive incitement provides Some diagnosis for active treatment. In our experiment, we measured the heartbeat through the MCG, 29 healthy and 34 abnormal subjects ostensibly. The raw data of acupuncture incitement are supported by opinions of gross examination and pathological diagnosis. The mean values of HE are 0.345, 0.755 and 0.805 for the periods of before, during and after acupuncture treatment, respectively in case of abnormal subjects. On the other hand, the mean values, 0.808, 0.797 and 0.785 are for normal cases, correspondingly. From this data, we show that HE is very significant in abnormal controls according to an acupuncture incitement, and the incitement effect is evidently extracted in abnormal subjects. But, in normal subjects, the incitement effect is meaningless.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.365-376
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• 2003

본 연구에서는 비정규 시계열 자료에 관한 다양한 회귀모형을 고찰하고, 이들 모형의 선택 기준에 관하여 연구해 보았다. 모형 선택의 기준으로는 AIC (Akaike information criterion), BIC (Baysian information criterion) 그리고 우도비 검정을 확장 적용하였다. 또한, 실제의 Polio 자료분석을 통해 이를 적용해보았다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.84-93
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• 2018

In this paper, we propose an Elman recurrent neural network to predict and analyze a time series of power energy consumption. To this end, we consider the volatility of the time series and apply the sample variance and the detrended fluctuation analyses to the volatilities. We demonstrate that there exists a correlation in the time series of the volatilities, which suggests that the power consumption time series contain a non-negligible amount of the non-linear correlation. Based on this finding, we adopt the Elman recurrent neural network as the model for the prediction of the power consumption. As the simplest form of the recurrent network, the Elman network is designed to learn sequential or time-varying pattern and could predict learned series of values. The Elman network has a layer of "context units" in addition to a standard feedforward network. By adjusting two parameters in the model and performing the cross validation, we demonstrated that the proposed model predicts the power consumption with the relative errors and the average errors in the range of 2%~5% and 3kWh~8kWh, respectively. To further confirm the experimental results, we performed two types of the cross validations designed for the time series data. We also support the validity of the model by analyzing the multi-step forecasting. We found that the prediction errors tend to be saturated although they increase as the prediction time step increases. The results of this study can be used to the energy management system in terms of the effective control of the cross usage of the electric and the gas energies.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
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• 제6권5호
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• pp.1312-1322
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• 1999

The world of linearity, which is regular, predictable and irrelevant to time sequence in most natural phenomenon, is a very small part. In fact, signals generated from natural phenomenon with which we're in contact are showed only slight linearity. Therefore it is very difficult to understand and analyze natural phenomenon with only predictable and regular linear systems. Due to these reasons researches concerning non-linear signals that of analysis were excluded being regarded as noise are being actively carried out. Countless signals generated from nonlinear system have the information about itself, and analyzing those signals and get information from it, that will be able to be used effectively in so may fields. Hence, in this paper we used a higher order spectrum, especially the bispectrum. After we prove the validity applying bispectrum to logistic map, which is typical chaotic signal. Subsequently by showing the result applying for actual signal analysis of EEG according to auditory stimuli, we show that higher order spectra is a very useful parameter in analysis of non-linear signals and the result of EEG analysis according to auditory stimuli.

• 한국측량학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.323-330
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• 2019

Radiometric normalization with multi-temporal satellite images is essential for time series analysis and change detection. Generally, relative radiometric normalization, which is an image-based method, is performed, and histogram matching is a representative method for normalizing the non-linear properties. However, since it utilizes global statistical information only, local information is not considered at all. Thus, this paper proposes a histogram matching method considering local information. The proposed method divides histograms based on density, mean, and standard deviation of image intensities, and performs histogram matching locally on the sub-histogram. The matched histogram is then further partitioned and this process is performed again, iteratively, controlled with the wasserstein distance. Finally, the proposed method is compared to global histogram matching. The experimental results show that the proposed method is visually and quantitatively superior to the conventional method, which indicates the applicability of the proposed method to the radiometric normalization of multi-temporal images with non-linear properties.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제26권4B호
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• pp.355-362
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 수문 및 기후 시계열 자료에 존재하는 경향성을 분석하기 위하여 MK 검정, Spearman's Rho 검정, Linear Regression 검정, 비모수 Cusum 검정, Cumulative Deviation 검정, Worsley Likelihood Ratio 검정, Rank Sum 검정, Student's t 검정 등의 8가지 기법을 사용하였다. 관측된 연 강우량과 유입량 시계열 자료, 나이테 자료 그리고 SOI 자료에 적용하여 그 결과를 비교 분석 하였다. 분석 결과 시계열 자료에는 어떤 기울기를 가지거나 어느 시점을 기준으로 평균이 변화하는 두 가지의 경향성이 존재함을 확인 할 수 있었다. 경향성을 나타낸 8개의 강우자료중 4개 지점이 평균이동(shift)을 나타내었으며, 18개 지역의 나이테 지수중 8개 지역과 월별 SOI자료 중 3, 4월자료에서 경향성의 존재가 확인되었고, 소양강댐 유입량 자료에서는 경향성이 나타나지 않았다. 특히, 나이테 지수의 경우에는 평균이동으로 인한 경향성만을 가지고 있는 자료가 확인되었다. 또한 정상성 검정을 위한 ADF 검정과 비선형성 검정을 위한 BDS 통계검정 기법을 적용하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 여러 경향성 분석 기법을 비교할 수 있었으며, 실제 관측된 수문 및 기후 시계열에 존재하는 경향성을 확인 할 수 있었고, 연구 결과를 통하여 수문시계열 해석시 다양한 분석을 통한 경향성의 존재여부를 확인 하여야 한다는 것을 알 수 있었다.