• Child Health Nursing Research
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2013

목적 보육시설 내 아동건강관리 현황 및 생태학적 모형의 체계에 따른 아동건강관리 장애요인을 확인하고 보육시설 아동건강관리 향상을 위한 생태학적 모형을 개발하는 데 있다. 방법 포커스 그룹 연구방법을 적용하였으며, 서울특별시 S구 소재 보육시설 중 재원아동 70명 이상의 국공립, 법인 및 민간 어린이집의 원장, 보육교사, 보육아동 부모, 3개 집단 총 22명을 대상으로 3차에 걸친 포커스 그룹 면담을 실시한 후 잠재적 내용분석법을 활용하여 분석하였다. 결과 보육시설 내 아동건강관리 현황으로는 '발달상태확인', '건강행위훈련' 등 12개 범주가 확인되었다. 생태학적 체계에 따른 보육시설 내 아동건강관리 장애요인으로는 질병관리에 대한 지식부족, 갑작스런 사고에 대한 미숙한 대처, 아동건강관리 전문인력의 부재, 유용한 건강관리 매뉴얼의 부족, 발달 및 건강에 대한 보육시설-부모 간 의견차이, 자녀건강관리에 대한 부모의 과도한 위임, 건강관리와 관련된 보육시설평가인증 항목의 부족 등 총25개 범주가 확인되었다. 결론 본 연구에서 제시된 보육시설 아동건강관리 향상을 위한 생태학적 모형은 보육아동을 위한 건강관리에 직 간접적으로 영향을 미치는 생태학적 체계의 요인을 고려한 프로그램 및 정책 개발 시 유용한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.7-16
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• 2012

Despite the enforcement of SSM control laws such as 'the Law of Developing the Distribution Industry (LDDI)' and 'the Law of Promoting Mutual Cooperation between Large and Small/medium Enterprises (LPMC)' stipulating the business adjustment system, the number of super-supermarkets (SSMs) has ever been expanding in Korea. In France, however, Super Centers are being regulated most strongly and directly in the whole Europe viewing that there is not a single SSM in Paris, which is emphasized to be the outcome from French government's regulation exerted on the opening of large scale retail stores. In France, the authority to approve store opening is deeply centralized and the store opening regulation is a socio-economic regulation driven by economic laws whereas EU strongly regulates the distribution industry. To control the French distribution industry, such seven laws and regulations as Commission départementale d'urbanisme commercial guidelines (CDLIC) (1969), the Royer Law (1973), the Doubin Law (1990), the Sapin Law (1993), the Raffarin Law (1996), solidarite et renouvellement urbains (SRU) (2000), and Loi de modernisation de l'économie (LME) (2009) have been promulgated one by one since the amendment of the Fontanet guidelines, through which commercial adjustment laws and regulations have been complemented and reinforced while regulatory measures have been taken. Even in the course of forming such strong regulatory laws, InterMarche, the largest supermarket chain in France, has been in existence as a global enterprise specialized in retail distribution with over 4,000 stores in Europe. InterMarche's business can be divided largely into two segments of food and non-food. As a supermarket chain, InterMarche's food segment has 2,300 stores in Europe and as a hard-discounter store chain in France, Netto has 420 stores. Restaumarch is a chain of traditional family restaurants and the steak house restaurant chain of Poivre Rouge has 4 restaurants currently. In addition, there are others like Ecomarche which is a supermarket chain for small and medium cities. In the non-food segment, the DIY and gardening chain of Bricomarche has a total of 620 stores in Europe. And the car-related chain of Roady has a total of 158 stores in Europe. There is the clothing chain of Veti as well. In view of InterMarche's management strategies, since its distribution strategy is to sell goods at cheap prices, buying goods cheap only is not enough. In other words, in order to sell goods cheap, it is all important to buy goods cheap, manage them cheap, systemize them cheap, and transport them cheap. In quality assurance, InterMarche has guaranteed the purchase safety for consumers by providing its own private brand products. InterMarche has 90 private brands of its own, thus being the retailer with the largest number of distributor brands in France. In view of its IT service strategy, InterMarche is utilizing a high performance IT system so as to obtainas much of the market information as possible and also to find out the best locations for opening stores. In its global expansion strategy of international alliance, InterMarche has established the ALDIS group together with the distribution enterprises of both Spain and Germany in order to expand its food purchase, whereas in the non-food segment, it has established the ARENA group in alliance with 11 international distribution enterprises. Such strategies of InterMarche have been intended to find out the consumer needs for both price and quality of goods and to secure the purchase and supply networks which are closely localized. It is necessary to cope promptly with the constantly changing circumstances through being unified with relevant regions and by providing diversified customer services as well. In view of the InterMarche's positive policy for promoting local partnerships as well as the assistance for enhancing the local economic structure, implications are existing for those retail distributors of our country.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.162-178
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• 1974

The present study is purported to provide a basic information to be utilized by nurses to care and attend effectively for patients nearing the moment of death. Therefore, the primary purpose of the study has been placed upon grasping an understanding of the trends of death in general. For this purpose: 1. By utilizing the schneidman questionnaire, the trend of death has been categorized by 6 parts and analyzed. 2. A search has been conducted to find out dying patient's needs, nurse's attitudes viewed by the patient, and nurse attitudes to dying patient. The followings are itemized results of analysis: 1. Analysis by the schneidman questionnaire. (1) In general concepts of death. the first sighting of the occurrence of death was experienced upon strangers, grandfather and great grandfather. The death is openly discussed among people of all ages and sex. Ages in which the death is mostly feared were from 12 to well over 70 yews old that are evenly distributed regardless of difference in age. (2) As to the attitudes toward death the occurrence of death to most closely associated person influenced most upon the attitude of their own termination of lives. Among the reading materials, the maximum influence was effected by the Bible. In terms of religion, the thoughts of death were Influenced by religions education in case of the believers of the western religions (36%), and by their own health and physical conditions in case of the believers in the oriental religions (35%). In case of non-believer, their attitude toward death were largely determined through their own thinking meditation (45%). People aged 20 or thereunder revealed that they wished to know the day of their own death to be occurred (58%). However, the older the less thor wanted to know. (3) As to the choosing the time of death, 57% preferred senility, and 30% preferred the time in mediately following the prime period of their lives in general. In terms of religion, 85% of the believer in the oriental religion preferred senility, and 67% in the western religion, 58% in others, Therefore. the desiring of their lives to be terminated in earlier stage, not by the natural senility. sequenced as follows : Others, western religions and oriental religions. (4) Referring to the disposal of the corpse under the assumption that it had already occurred, majority desired the burial system. There has been seen a slight tendency to consider the importance of holding funeral services for the sake of survivors. Concerning the life insurance policy, it showed that the nurse had less belief in it than the patient (5) Upon the subject of life-after-death. religion wise, 72% of western religion believers preferred to have an existence of life-after-death: Among the believers of oriental regions, 35% desired this category, 30% did not mind either way. and 35% did not desire the existence of such a life-after-death. In others, 53% did not mind whether or not such a life existed. (6) In general, serious thoughts were not being attended to the commitment of suicide. 37% emphasized that such an act should be prevented. However, 30% insisted that such commitment should not be bothered, and that society possesses no right to prevented it. More male wished to commit suicide (13%) than females (9%). 2. Nurse's attitudes toward terminal patients and patient's needs. In the instance where the patient realized that their death is imminent, most of them showed desire to discuses mainly on the problems of life. When faced a situation of this nature, it is revealed that 40% of nurses could not furnish appropriate care for them.

• 한국학교ㆍ지역보건교육학회지
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• 제4권
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• pp.117-139
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• 2003

The purpose of this research lies in presenting logical viability for the measures that curtail access to lewd Internet contents by middle school students amidst the reality in which lewd contents are circulated freely through the Internet, a medium that the middle school students find most easy to access. In order to establish right form of awareness towards sex, this research identified the ways they access the lewd Internet contents, their reaction after the exposure to those contents, their knowledge of sex, their concerns regarding sex and their accessibility to sexual activities in order to conduct a comparative analysis on the relationship between lewd Internet contents and their awareness of sex. First, realities of accessing lewd Internet contents and reactions according to the demographics of middle school students There isa significant difference in the experience of accessing lewd Internet contents in terms of gender. Mostly, male students tend to access the contents more. As for the way they access the lewd Internet contents, both male and female students replied that they access through spam mail of lewd nature. Thus, measures to address this problem are needed urgently. As to when they first accessed the lewd contents, most of the research subjects replied that they accessed either in elementary school period or in the early middle school period. This shows that most of the students got exposed to lewd contents even before they could establish positive, correct awareness of sex. Thus, there is a risk that they may formulate wrong kind of sexual awareness. Accordingly, it is necessary to develop measures through focused sex education. Students are divided into two groups according to the time they spend on the contents averagely: those who spend over one hour and those who spend less than an hour on the lewd contents. If the students spending longer hours are not to be checked and properly guided, it may lead to increasing cases of sexual delinquencies due to their wrongly formed awareness of sex. When the question of existence(non-existence) of guardian was addressed, students with both parents tend to access the lewd Internet contents in a more diverse manner and tend to access more compared to those students from single parent or no-parent families. Accordingly, guardians need to pay attention to how their children are using the Internet. Second, awareness of sex depending on the middle school students' demographics In case of sexual knowledge, middle school students shows relatively high level of knowledge. In particular, female students are found more knowledgeable than male students, and the students in upper years are more knowledgeable as well. As a result, this research recommends that the students in lower years should be guided with more basc and detailed information, while those in upper years need to be taught to form and express their own thoughts and attitudes and to build up independence on this matter. In case of worries about sex, both male and female students don't worry too much about it. However, male students are more concerned about sex than female students in a more diverse ways. As for the differences by academic year, concerns for sex increase, as students get older. Accordingly, sex education that helps establish sound perception of the opposite sex and that focuses on the etiquettes that one must adhere to at the presence of the opposite sex need to be conducted against middle school students. In case of accessibility to sex, male students manifest higher tendency than female students. As for the differences by academic year, those in the first and second years show higher accessibility than those in their third year. In general, younger students tend to be more open-minded toward sex. Accordingly, students in lower academic years need to undergo basic knowledge oriented sex education, whereas those in upper academic years need to undergo discussion centered sex education where they subject to questions regarding their attitude and opinion. Third, relationship between the reactions after the exposure to the lewd Internet contents and their awareness of sex As the frequency of contact with lewd Internet contents increases, awareness of sex increases as well. Thus, the lewd Internet contents contribute to the increase in students' concern for sex as well as increase in accessibility to sex, which eventually become barriers to students' establishment of a healthy perception of sex. Reactions to sex after the exposure to lewd Internet contents and awareness of sex indicate a significant correlation. However, negative correlation is manifested with knowledge of sex. Thus, it is possible to know that the greater access to lewd Internet contents does not necessarily translate into increase in knowledge of sex. However, the study showed there is a correlation between concerns for sex and the level of accessibility to sex. In more detail, the more reactions to the contents they show, the more concerns for sex they have and the more positively they take acceptability to sex. Moreover, it is necessary to develop necessary measures since textbooks today do not include measures needed to address the lewd Internet contents. Given the above findings, it is necessary to continue to complement structural measures in order to prevent easy access of lewd Internet contents by middle school students. Moreover, it is necessary to be considerate of the students so that they themselves can form a healthy Internet culture and grow up within positive framework for the sex education.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.41-72
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is the investigation of the effects of user participation, network effect, social influence, and usefulness on stickiness and continued use on Internet communities. In this research, stickiness refers to repeat visit and visit duration to an Internet community. Continued use means the willingness to continue to use an Internet community in the future. Internet community-based companies can earn money through selling the digital contents such as game, music, and avatar, advertizing on internet site, or offering an affiliate marketing. For such money making, stickiness and continued use of Internet users is much more important than the number of Internet users. We tried to answer following three questions. Fist, what is the effects of user participation on stickiness and continued use on Internet communities? Second, by what is user participation formed? Third, are network effect, social influence, and usefulness that was significant at prior research about technology acceptance model(TAM) still significant on internet communities? In this study, user participation, network effect, social influence, and usefulness are independent variables, stickiness is mediating variable, and continued use is dependent variable. Among independent variables, we are focused on user participation. User participation means that Internet user participates in the development of Internet community site (called mini-hompy or blog in Korea). User participation was studied from 1970 to 1997 at the research area of information system. But since 1997 when Internet started to spread to the public, user participation has hardly been studied. Given the importance of user participation at the success of Internet-based companies, it is very meaningful to study the research topic of user participation. To test the proposed model, we used a data set generated from the survey. The survey instrument was designed on the basis of a comprehensive literature review and interviews of experts, and was refined through several rounds of pretests, revisions, and pilot tests. The respondents of survey were the undergraduates and the graduate students who mainly used Internet communities. Data analysis was conducted using 217 respondents(response rate, 97.7 percent). We used structural equation modeling(SEM) implemented in partial least square(PLS). We chose PLS for two reason. First, our model has formative constructs. PLS uses components-based algorithm and can estimated formative constructs. Second, PLS is more appropriate when the research model is in an early stage of development. A review of the literature suggests that empirical tests of user participation is still sparse. The test of model was executed in the order of three research questions. First user participation had the direct effects on stickiness(${\beta}$=0.150, p<0.01) and continued use (${\beta}$=0.119, p<0.05). And user participation, as a partial mediation model, had a indirect effect on continued use mediated through stickiness (${\beta}$=0.007, p<0.05). Second, optional participation and prosuming participation significantly formed user participation. Optional participation, with a path magnitude as high as 0.986 (p<0.001), is a key determinant for the strength of user participation. Third, Network effect (${\beta}$=0.236, p<0.001). social influence (${\beta}$=0.135, p<0.05), and usefulness (${\beta}$=0.343, p<0.001) had directly significant impacts on stickiness. But network effect and social influence, as a full mediation model, had both indirectly significant impacts on continued use mediated through stickiness (${\beta}$=0.11, p<0.001, and ${\beta}$=0.063, p<0.05, respectively). Compared with this result, usefulness, as a partial mediation model, had a direct impact on continued use and a indirect impact on continued use mediated through stickiness. This study has three contributions. First this is the first empirical study showing that user participation is the significant driver of continued use. The researchers of information system have hardly studies user participation since late 1990s. And the researchers of marketing have studied a few lately. Second, this study enhanced the understanding of user participation. Up to recently, user participation has been studied from the bipolar viewpoint of participation v.s non-participation. Also, even the study on participation has been studied from the point of limited optional participation. But, this study proved the existence of prosuming participation to design and produce products or services, besides optional participation. And this study empirically proved that optional participation and prosuming participation were the key determinant for user participation. Third, our study compliments traditional studies of TAM. According prior literature about of TAM, the constructs of network effect, social influence, and usefulness had effects on the technology adoption. This study proved that these constructs still are significant on Internet communities.

• 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.375-402
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• 2020

등록협약의 채택과 발효는 우주법(corpus iuris spatialis)을 발전시키고 강화하는 또 다른 성과였다. 등록협약은 UNCOPUOS 회원국이 제정한 4번째 조약으로 우주조약 제5조와 제8조를 좀 더 상세하게 설명한 조약이다. 등록협약은 또한 국제협력을 촉진하기 위해 유엔사무총장에게 우주활동의 성격, 행동, 위치 및 결과를 알리는 의무를 규정하고 있는 우주조약 제11조를 보완하고 강화한 조약이다. 등록협약의 일반적인 목적은 우주조약 제8조에 언급된 바와 같이 "관할권과 통제"를 명확하게 하기 위한 것이다. 우선적으로 우주물체의 등록이라는 목표 외에도 등록협약은 평화로운 목적을 위해 우주공간의 탐사 및 이용과 증진에 기여하고 있다. 우주물체의 공개기록을 설정하면 미확인 우주물체가 존재할 가능성이 줄어들어 대량살상무기를 비밀리에 우주궤도에 올리는 등의 위험성이 줄어들게 된다. 또한 좀 더 나은 우주교통관리에도 도움이 될 수 있다. 등록협약은 우주조약 제5조 상 우주비행사의 구조 및 송환문제를 보다 구체적으로 이행하기 위해 설립된 조약이다. 이와 관련하여 두 법이 상충되는 경우 우주조약은 일반법으로, 등록협약은 특별법으로 간주되어, "특별법우선의 원칙"이 적용된다. 등록협약에 가입하지 않은 국가는 1961년 유엔 총회 결의 1721(XVI)의 선언 7 항 등록에 관한 규칙을 따라야 한다. 유엔 결의 1721 (XVI)은 본질적으로 구속력은 없지만 모든 국가가 우주공간에 우주물체를 발사할 경우 유엔에 등록하기 위하여 발사에 관한 정보를 즉시 제공하도록 요구하는 표준으로 국제관습법으로 발전한 것으로 볼 수 있다. 그러나, 제공될 정보의 본질과 범위는 통지국의 재량에 달려있다. 등록협약도 국가들로 하여금 우주공간에 우주물체를 발사할 때 이를 강제적으로 등록시키기 위해 만들어진 조약이지만, 실제로는 자발적 등록을 기반으로 하기 때문에 기존관행에서 벗어나지 못한 조약이다. 현재 우주의 상업화로 인해 새로운 문제들이 제기되는 상황에서, 우주물체를 구매한 새로운 국가가 등록은 어떻게 해야 하는지 또는 발사된 우주물체가 기능이 정지되어 그로 인해 우주폐기물 문제가 발생할 때 등록국이 계속해서 책임을 지는 가 등 여러 문제들이 등록협약의 개정, 또는 추가 의정서 또는 새로운 등록협약이 수립될 때 중요한 주제로 간주되어야 할 것이다. 또한 짧은 시간 동안 준 궤도를 여행하는 우주차량의 경우 이것도 등록해야 하는 문제도 함께 고려되어야 할 것이다.

• 한국노년학
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• 제38권3호
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• pp.551-567
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• 2018

본 연구의 목적은 독거여부와 거주지역에 따라 중년기와 노년기 남성과 여성의 악력에 차이가 있는지를 탐색하는 데에 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 한국고령화연구패널 5차년도 자료를 활용하였다. 독립변수는 독거여부와 거주지역(도시, 비도시)이며, 종속변수는 악력이다. 통제변수로는 연령, 교육수준, 로그변환된 가구소득, 배우자 여부, BMI(Body Max Index), 주관적 건강, 우울감, 인지기능 수준, 흡연여부, 규칙적 운동여부, 친한 친구와 만나는 횟수, 참여하는 사회적 모임의 수가 모형에 포함되었다. 분석은 중년기 남성과 여성, 노년기 남성과 여성을 대상으로 각각 실시되었으며, 분산분석과 카이검증, 상관분석, 회귀분석을 통해 자료가 분석되었다. 회귀분석 이후 유의한 분석결과에 대한 구체적인 논의를 위해 독거여부와 거주지역의 상호작용항이 유의한 집단을 대상으로 분산분석과 카이검증이 추가적으로 실시되었다. 모든 분석에는 한국고령화연구패널의 5차년도 횡단 가중치가 적용되었다. 본 연구결과 노년기 여성들의 악력 평균이 악력의 이상치를 판별하는 절단점 점수와 유사한 것으로 나타나 노년기 여성들이 다른 생애주기나 노년기 남성들과 비교했을 때 악력과 관련하여 임상적 취약집단에 속하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 중년 남성과 노년기 남성, 노년기 여성에게서는 독거여부와 거주지역에 따른 악력 차이가 통계적으로 유의미하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 중년 여성들에게 있어서는 독거여부와 거주지역에 따른 악력 차이가 통계적으로 유의미한 것으로 나타났다. 구체적으로, 비도시 지역에 홀로 거주하는 독거 중년 여성이 다른 중년 여성들에 비해 평균적으로 가장 낮은 악력을 가진 것으로 나타났다. 추가적인 분석에 따르면 비도시 독거 중년 여성은 낮은 학력과 낮은 가구 소득 등 다른 중년 여성들에 비해 건강에 더 취약한 요인들을 많이 가지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 본 연구결과는 노년기 여성과 비도시에 홀로 거주하는 중년기 독거 여성들에게 악력과 관련된 개입이 필요함을 시사한다. 본 연구는 국가 전체를 대표하는 대표성 있는 패널자료를 사용하여 가중치를 적용한 분석을 통해 일반화 가능성을 높였다는 점에서 중노년기 악력과 관련한 정책적 대상자를 선정하는 것과 관련한 신뢰성 있는 정보를 제공할 수 있다는 의의가 있다.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제102권1호
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• pp.38-58
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• 2013

각 국가별로 고유종(혹은 특산종)은 보전생물학자들의 관심 대상이 되며 국가의 법률 시행에 의해 각 국가별로 분포의 제한이 되는 특산식물에 대한 관리를 하게 된다. 국가 기관인 환경부에서는 2005년도에 고유종목록을 출간하였고, 2011년 산림청에서는 수목원 조성 및 진흥에 관한 법률 시행 규칙 중[별표 1의 4] 특산식물 목록을 법으로 공표하였다. 이 법의 목록을 중심으로 법제화된 목록에서 제시된 빈번한 학명의 오류와 잘못된 종의 개념에 의한 목록을 점검할 필요가 있어 본 연구를 시도하였다. 환경부는 527종, 산림청은 360종의 목록을 발표하였는데 양 국가 기관에서 공통으로 언급한 종은 환경부 목록의 품종(107) 수를 제외한 분류군(416)으로 계산하면 286종으로 산림청 목록의 약 80%에 해당된다. 산림청의 특산식물 목록을 근간으로 분석한 결과, 확인되는 단순 오타 오류는 67개(18.7%), 서명과 나명의 비합법적으로 발표한 이름은 모두 14종(3.9%)이며, 중국에 분포해서 특산식물에서 배제되어야 하는 12종(3.4%) 등 전체 목록의 4분의 1(24.9%)이 오류에 해당된다. 반면, 목록 중 분류학적 연구와 검토가 불충분해서 분류군의 실체를 인정하기 어려운 분류군(미해결후보종, unresolved candidates)인 73종(19.6%), 분류학적 이명으로 확인된 196종(55.5%)을 제외하면 특산식물은 59종(16.5%)에 불과하였다. 본 연구 결과에 의하면, 이런 특산식물 목록의 오류는 종에 대한 개념 문제, 해당 종에 대한 정보 부족, 그리고 국가기관의 학명관련 데이터베이스의 오류에 대한 수정이 없는 잘못된 정보의 제공이 원인이다. 실제 고유종 대상이 되는 종들의 보전관리가 시급하게 필요함에도 불구하고, 현재의 과도한 고유종 선정에 의해 상대적인 관심에서 멀어져 미래에 멸종위기에 대한 문제를 자초하는 우를 범할 수 있다.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.19-32
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• 2010

학계와 금융파생상품 가격결정이나 변동성매매와 같은 실무영역 모두에서 주식시장의 변동성은 중요한 역할을 한다. 본 연구는 GARCH 모형에 기초하여 한국주식시장의 변동성을 정확히 예측함으로써 변동성매매시스템의 성과를 높일 수 있는 새로운 방법을 제시하였다. 특히, 여러 연구 자료에서 밝혀지고 있는 변동성 비대칭성개념을 도입하였다. 최근 새로 개발된 한국주식시장 변동성 지수인 VKOSPI를 변동성 대용값으로 사용한다. VKOSPI는 KOSPI 200 지수옵션의 가격을 이용하여 계산된 값으로서 옵션딜러들의 변동성 예측치를 반영하고 있다. KOSPI 200 옵션시장은 1997년 시작되었으며, 발전을 거듭하여 현재 하루 거래량이 1,000만 계약을 넘어서면서 세계 최고의 지수옵션시장으로 발전하였다. 이러한 옵션시장에 반영된 변동성을 분석하는 것은 투자자들에게 좋은 투자정보를 제공하게 될 것이다. 특히, 변동성 대용값으로 VKOSPI를 사용하면 다른 변동성 대용치를 사용할 때 발생하는 통계적 추정의 문제를 피해 갈 수 있다. 본 연구는 2003년부터 2006년의 KOSPI 200 지수 일별자료를 대상으로 최우도추정방법(MLE)을 이용하여 GARCH 모형을 추정한다. 비대칭 GARCH 모형으로는 Glosten, Jagannathan, Runke의 GJR-GARCH 모형, Nelson의 EGARCH 모형, 그리고 Ding, Granger, Engle의 PARCH모형을 포함하며 대칭 GARCH 모형은 (1, 1) GARCH 모형을 이용한다. 2007년부터 2009년까지의 KOSPI 200 지수 일별자료를 대상으로 반복적 계산과정을 통해 내일의 변동성 예측값과 오르고 내리는 변화방향을 예측하였다. 분석 결과 시장변동성과 예기치 않은 주가변동 사이에는 음의 상관관계가 존재하며, 음의 주가변동은 동일한 크기의 양의 주가변동보다 훨씬 더 큰 변동성의 증가를 가져옴을 알 수 있다. 즉, 한국 주식시장에도 변동성 비대칭성이 존재함을 보여주었다. GARCH 모형을 이용하여 내일의 VKOSPI의 등락방향을 예측하고 이를 이용하여 변동성 매매시스템을 개발하였다. 내일의 변동성이 상승할 것으로 예측되면 스트래들매수전략을 이용하고 반대로 변동성이 하락할 것으로 예측되면 스트래들 매도전략을 이용한다. 변동성의 변화방향성을 맞춘 경우에는 VKOSPI 변동분을 더하고 틀린 경우에는 변동분을 뺀 누적합을 이용하여 변동성매매전략의 총수익을 계산한다. 모형추정용 자료구간의 경우 통계적 기준인 MSPE 기준으로는 PARCH 모형의 적합도가 가장 높고, 예측방향의 적중도를 재는 MCP 기준으로는 EGARCH 모형이 가장 높은 값을 보여주었다. 테스트용 자료구간의 경우에는 PARCH 모형이 모형적합도와 내일의 변동성 등락방향 예측에서 가장 좋은 결과를 보여주었다. 모형추정용 자료구간의 경우 GARCH 모형 전체에서 매매이익을 기록하고 있고 테스트용 자료구간의 경우에는 EGARCH 모형을 제외한 GARCH 모형들이 매매이익을 보여주었다. 본 연구에서 나타난 변동성의 군집과 비대칭성 현상으로부터 변동성에 비선형성이 존재함을 알 수 있었으며, 비선형성에서 좋은 결과를 보이고 있는 인공지능시스템과 비대칭 GARCH 모형을 결합한다면 제안된 변동성매매시스템의 성과를 많이 개선할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.