• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.43-49
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• 2010

This study deals with the traffic accident of the Cheongju arterial link sections. The purpose of the study is to develop the traffic accident model. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the ZAM(zero-altered model) model using the accident data of arterial roads devided by 322 small link sections. The main results analyzed by ZIP(zero inflated Poisson model) and ZINB(zero inflated negative binomial model) which are the methods of ZAM, are as follows. First, the evaluation of various developed models by the Vuong statistic and t statistic for overdispersion parameter ${\alpha}$ shows that ZINB is analyzed to be optimal among Poisson, NB, ZIP(zero-inflated Poisson) and ZINB regression models. Second, ZINB is evaluated to be statistically significant in view of t, ${\rho}$ and ${\rho}^2$ (0.63) values compared to other models. Finally, the accident factors of ZINB models are developed to be the traffic volume(ADT), number of entry/exit and length of median. The traffic volume(ADT) and the number of entry/exit are evaluated to be the '+' factors and the length of median to be '-' factor of the accident.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.35-46
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• 2008

The purposes of this study are to analyze the characteristics and to develop the models of traffic accidents. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the models(multiple linear, poisson and negative binomial regression) using the data of Cheongju and Cheongwon signalized intersections. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, the accident characteristics of rural area were defined by factor. Second, 4 accident models which are all statistically significant were developed. Finally, such the variables as $X_2$ and $X_{11}$ were evaluated to be specific variables which reflect the characteristics of rural area.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.67-74
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• 2011

This study deals with the traffic accidents data from the Korean rotaries (circular intersections) to verify their characteristics affected by different vehicle types. This paper categorized the data into three groups based on vehicle types, and developed a set of accident models. The paper proposed two ZIP models and one negative binomial model through a statistical analysis for three vehicle types: automobile, truck and van, and others. The differences among those models were then statistically compared.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.603-613
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• 2008

We often encounter the situation that discrete count data have a large portion of zeros. In this case, it is not appropriate to analyze the data based on standard regression models such as the poisson or negative binomial regression models. In this article, we consider Bayesian analysis for two commonly used models. They are zero-inflated poisson and negative binomial regression models. We use the Bayes factor as a model selection tool and computation is proceeded via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Crash count data are analyzed to support theoretical results.

• Journal of Family Relations
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.131-156
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• 2016

Objective: This study aimed to examine parenting education participation of Korean mothers in the transition to parenthood and its related variables. Method: A study sample was composed of 870 mothers whose first child was younger than one-year old from the Panel Study on Korean Children in 2008(mean age=30.1, SD = 3.69). The descriptive statistics of parenting education participation were presented. In addition, negative binomial and logistic regression models were used in Stata13 in order to examine the variables related to parenting education participation of mothers in the transition to parenthood. Results: Approximately 82% of the mothers reported that they had participated in at least one parenting education program. Further, mother's educational level, monthly household income, mother's working experience, and community type generally predicted parenting education participation of mothers. However, the effects of these variables varied by the subjects and the providing institutions. Conclusion: This study provides the overall picture of parenting education participation of Korean mothers in the transition to parenthood and its related variables. The findings can be utilized to plan more effective parenting education programs for new parents.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.33-41
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• 2021

In this study, we estimated the number of secondary COVID-19 infections caused by students with potential transmission potential home. When the existing Monte Carlo method was applied to Korean data, the average number of household members of the second COVID-19 infected was predicted. The summary of this study is as follows. First, in general, the number of secondary infections by students returning home from school is greatly influenced by the virus infection rate of each student group they contact while returning home from school. Korea-based empirical research on this is needed. Second, the number of secondary infections by Korean students was relatively lower than that of previous studies. This can be interpreted as being due to the domestic furniture structure. Third, unlike previous studies that assumed the distribution of secondary infected individuals as normal distribution, assuming a negative binomial distribution, the number of secondary infected individuals was sensitively changed according to the estimated parameters. Interpretation of this result shows that the number of secondary infections may vary depending on the time of decision making, the target region, and the target student group. Finally, according to the results of this analysis, a proposal was made to support education policy decisions.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.159-176
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• 1993

The utilization of outpatient care services involves two steps of sequential decisions. The first step decision is about whether to initiate the utilization and the second one is about how many more visits to make after the initiation. Presumably, the initiation decision is largely made by the patient and his or her family, while the number of additional visits is decided under a strong influence of the physician. Implication is that the analysis of the outpatient care utilization requires to specify each of the two decisions underlying the utilization as a distinct stochastic process. This paper is concerned with the number of physician visits, which is, by definition, a discrete variable that can take only non-negative integer values. Since the initial visit is considered in the analysis of whether or not having made any physician visit, the focus on the number of visits made in addition to the initial one must be enough. The number of additional visits, being a kind of count data, could be assumed to exhibit a Poisson distribution. However, it is likely that the distribution is over dispersed since the number of physician visits tends to cluster around a few values but still vary widely. A recently reported study of outpatient care utilization employed an analysis based upon the assumption of a negative binomial distribution which is a type of overdispersed Poisson distribution. But there is an indication that the use of Poisson distribution making adjustments for over-dispersion results in less loss of efficiency in parameter estimation compared to the use of a certain type of distribution like a negative binomial distribution. An analysis of the data for outpatient care utilization was performed focusing on an assessment of appropriateness of available techniques. The data used in the analysis were collected by a community survey in Hwachon Gun, Kangwon Do in 1990. It was observed that a Poisson regression with adjustments for over-dispersion is superior to either an ordinary regression or a Poisson regression without adjustments oor over-dispersion. In conclusion, it seems the most approprite to assume that the number of physician visits made in addition to the initial visist exhibits an overdispersed Poisson distribution when outpatient care utilization is studied based upon a model which embodies the two-part character of the decision process uderlying the utilization.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.83-91
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• 2012

PURPOSES : This study deals with Rotary by Accident Occurrence Location. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rotary by location. METHODS : In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using multiple linear, Poisson and negative binomial regression models and statistical analysis tools. RESULTS : First, four multiple linear regression models which are statistically significant(their $R^2$ values are 0.781, 0.300, 0.784 and 0.644 respectively) are developed, and four Poisson regression models which are statistically significant(their ${\rho}^2$ values are 0.407, 0.306, 0.378 and 0.366 respectively) are developed. Second, the test results of fitness using RMSE, %RMSE, MPB and MAD show that Poisson regression model in the case of circulatory roadway, pedestrian crossing and others and multiple linear regression model in the case of entry/exit sections are appropriate to the given data. Finally, the common variable that affects to the accident is adopted to be traffic volume. CONCLUSIONS : 8 models which are all statistically significant are developed, and the common and specific variables that are related to the models are derived.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.67-74
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• 2018

PURPOSES : The goal of this study is the development of roundabout accident models for urban and non-urban areas. METHODS : This study performed a comparative analysis of the regional factors affecting accidents. Traffic accident data were collected for the period 2010~2014 from the TAAS data set of the Road Traffic Authority. To develop the roundabout accident models, the Poisson and negative binomial regression models were used. A total of 25 explanatory variables such as geometry, and traffic volume were used. RESULTS : The key findings are as follows: First, it was found that the null hypotheses that the number of accidents is the same should be rejected. Second, three Poisson regression accident models, which are statistically significant (${\rho}^2$ of 0.154 and 0.385) were developed. Third, it was noted that although the common variable of the three models (models I~III) is the number of entry lanes, the specific variables are entry lane width, roundabout sign, number of circulatory roadways, splitter island, number of exit lanes, exit lane width, number of approach roads, and truck apron. CONCLUSIONS : The results of this study can provide suggestive countermeasures for decreasing the number of roundabout accidents.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.153-162
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• 2008

This study deals with the traffic accidents at the 4-legged signalized intersections in Cheong-ju. The purpose is to comparatively analyze the characteristics and models by the accident type using the data of 143 intersections. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular emphasis to modeling such the accidents as head on collision, rear end collision, side swipe, side right angle collision, and others. The main results are the followings. First, the overdispersion tests show that the negative binomial regression models are appropriate to the traffic accident data in the above contexts. Second, five accident models are developed, which are all analyzed to be statistically significant. Finally, the models are comparatively evaluated using the common variable(ADT) and type-specific variables.