Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management

Korea Data Strategy Society (한국데이터전략학회)
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Resumption of School Face-to-Face Classes and Analysis of Secondary Infected Persons in COVID 19 : Applying the Monte-Carlo Method

학교 대면 수업 재개와 2차 감염자 분석 : 몬테카를로 기법 적용을 중심으로

  • Cho, Sang-Sup (Department of Business School, Hoseo University) ;
  • Chae, Dong-Woo (Graduate School of Hoseo University) ;
  • Lim, Seung-Joo (Department of Nursing, Research Institute for Basic Sciences, Hoseo University)
  • Received : 2020.02.02
  • Accepted : 2020.02.08
  • Published : 2021.02.28
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Abstract

In this study, we estimated the number of secondary COVID-19 infections caused by students with potential transmission potential home. When the existing Monte Carlo method was applied to Korean data, the average number of household members of the second COVID-19 infected was predicted. The summary of this study is as follows. First, in general, the number of secondary infections by students returning home from school is greatly influenced by the virus infection rate of each student group they contact while returning home from school. Korea-based empirical research on this is needed. Second, the number of secondary infections by Korean students was relatively lower than that of previous studies. This can be interpreted as being due to the domestic furniture structure. Third, unlike previous studies that assumed the distribution of secondary infected individuals as normal distribution, assuming a negative binomial distribution, the number of secondary infected individuals was sensitively changed according to the estimated parameters. Interpretation of this result shows that the number of secondary infections may vary depending on the time of decision making, the target region, and the target student group. Finally, according to the results of this analysis, a proposal was made to support education policy decisions.

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