• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.141-141
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• 2022

Drought is a global phenomenon that affects almost all landscapes and causes major damages. Due to non-linear nature of contributing factors, drought occurrence and its severity is characterized as stochastic in nature. Early warning of impending drought can aid in the development of drought mitigation strategies and measures. Thus, drought forecasting is crucial in the planning and management of water resource systems. The primary objective of this study is to make improvement is existing drought forecasting techniques. Therefore, we proposed an improved version of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (MD-SARIMA) for reliable drought forecasting with three years lead time. In this study, we selected four watersheds of Han River basin in South Korea to validate the performance of MD-SARIMA model. The meteorological data from 8 rain gauge stations were collected for the period 1973-2016 and converted into watershed scale using Thiessen's polygon method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to represent the meteorological drought at seasonal (3-month) time scale. The performance of MD-SARIMA model was compared with existing models such as Seasonal Naive Bayes (SNB) model, Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model, and SARIMA model. The results showed that all the models were able to forecast drought, but the performance of MD-SARIMA was robust then other statistical models with Wilmott Index (WI) = 0.86, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.66, and Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.80 for 36 months lead time forecast. The outcomes of this study indicated that the MD-SARIMA model can be utilized for drought forecasting.

• Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.363-376
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• 2008

This study is to understand intuition that is the tool of invention and the one factor of the creative thinking in mathematical education. For this, I examine the nature of intuition and the history of research about intuition. And I study the result of research about intuition in cognitive psychological perspectives. This study brings to a focus in informational processing model. Informational processing model is similar to the mathematical problem solving process that is expressed linear process. Recently, parallel distributed processing models try to understand the nature of intuition. But any models cannot adequately explain the nature and the phenomena of illumination of intuition. Some scholars try to examine the intuition in mathematical education. But systematic and practical research is rare. So, I suggest the mathematical educational implications about intuition. Conclusively, it is necessary to systematic concern in intuition and the methods of improvement of intuition in mathematical education.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.15-34
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• 2014

Overall, accuracy as a performance measure does not fully consider modular accuracy: the accuracy of classifying 1 (or true) as 1 is not same as classifying 0 (or false) as 0. A smarter classification algorithm would optimize the classification rules to match the modular accuracies' goals according to the nature of problem. Correspondingly, smarter algorithms must be both more generalized with respect to the nature of problems, and free from decretization, which may cause distortion of the real performance. Hence, in this paper, we propose a novel vertical boosting algorithm that improves modular accuracies. Rather than decretizing items, we use simple classifiers such as a regression model that accepts continuous data types. To improve the generalization, and to select a classification model that is well-suited to the nature of the problem domain, we developed a model selection algorithm with smartness. To show the soundness of the proposed method, we performed an experiment with a real-world application: predicting the intellectual properties of e-transaction technology, which had a 47,000+ record data set.

• Cross-Cultural Studies
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• v.33
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• pp.143-169
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• 2013

Recently, because of the danger and damages that following the steady development of scientific technologies, natural science is faced with many humane and ethical problems. So it is asserted the interdisciplinary with social and human science. However, it comes commonly that the ethical issues such as world view and one's view of life caused the development of sociology, especially development of the market economy. But in many cases, the interdisciplinary can be useful for widen the view of scholars. The interdisciplinary is actually connected with the problems of philosophy, and located in that domain. In this case, this is noticed as a model to the philosophers in 18th century, especially Denis Diderot. Diderot published De $l^{\prime}interpr{\acute{e}}tation$ de la nature during editing the Encyclopedia, from there he picked out the contents from piles of documents of Encyclopedia. Even though the contents or opinions of De $l^{\prime}interpr{\acute{e}}tation$ de la nature are inaccuracy or erroneous, it shows that how human-social science and natural science encountered. Diderot studied mathematics and then Diderot accepted to the natural science proposal, he approaches philosophy with translate English books to the French. Next he understood natural science by reading Buffon and Maupertuis, and during working for Encyclopedia, he possessed his knowledge that he can claim his opinion to other scholars. However in this De $l^{\prime}interpr{\acute{e}}tation$ de la nature, Diderot who sometimes rebutted other scholars' theory and demonstration, tried to build a philosophy on metaphysics in order to it was important for himself that he imposed the methods of science and importance of experience. Anyhow, this De $l^{\prime}interpr{\acute{e}}tation$ de la nature cause consider the recognition of Diderot in the field of natural science, and is suggested as a model about his Nature. This mean that it is an expression of his philosophy, and the content is found from natural philosophy and empirical philosophy. Like giving these attache the importance of method study for science and technique, these are targeted the promotion of popularization of natural-science and scientific-technology. Also it advocates fulfilling from reasonable philosophy to empirical philosophy. Therefore, the philosophy which was speculative and abstracted became his philosophy which was writing the meaning, as waiting the discovery of science. And at that time, the humanities made interdisciplinary with natural science.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.867-874
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• 1994

The complex nature of low flow transport and transformation of nonconservative pollutants in natural streams has been investigated using a numerical solution of a proposed mathematical model that is based on a pair of mass balance equations describing the advection, dispersion, decay and mass exchange mechanisms in streams and in storage zones. In the present study, a mathematical model (named "Storage-Transformation Model") has been developed to predict adequately the non-Fickian nature of mixing and transformation mechanisms for decaying substances in natural streams under low flow conditions. Comparisons of the computed concentration-time curves with the measured data show that the Storage-Transformation Model yields better agreements in general shape, peak concentration and time to peak than the conventional 1-D dispersion model. The proposed model shows significant improvement over the 1-D dispersion model in predicting natural transport and transformation processes in streams through pools and riffles.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.742-748
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• 1993

The dynamics and control of two complex column configurations (sidestream column with stripper; prcfractionater/sidestream column configuration), which are multivariable interacting and nonlinear, have been studied. A new control scheme developed by Hanand Park(1993) to deal with the nonlinear and multivariable nature of distillation processes has been applied to these complex distillation configurations. The control scheme incorporates a nonlinear wave model into a generic model control framework. An observer based on the nonlinear wave model is used to determine the profile positions of distillation column sections. The control scheme enables tight control of the profile position of each column section that leads to fast stabilization of product compositions.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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• v.33A no.7
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• pp.162-170
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• 1996

A breakdown model of gate oxides under constant current stresses is proposed. This model directly relates the oxide lifetime to the stress current density, and includes statistical nature of oxide breakdown using the concept of "effective oxide thinning". It is shown tha this model can reliably predict the TDDB characteristics for any current stress levels and oxide areas.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.359-368
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• 1996

The maximum likelihood estimation is discussed for the NLAR model with Laplacian marginals. Since the explicit form of the estimates cannot be obtained due to the complicated nature of the likelihood function we utilize the automatic computer optimization subroutine using a direct search complex algorithm. The conditional least square estimates are used as initial estimates in maximum likelihood procedures. The results of a simulation study for the maximum likelihood estimates of the NLAR(1) and the NLAR(2) models are presented.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.113-119
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• 1995

In 3D computer graphics, fractal techniques have been applied to terrain models. Even though fractal models have become popular for recreating a wide variety of the shapes found in nature, a specific 3D terrain model such as Uleung Island could not be formulated by statistical fractals easily owing to the random effects. However, by locating the midpoints on the edges and the surface of a specific terrain such as Uleung Island, a similar shape of the terrain model can be simulated. This paper shows the way of simulating 3D Uleung Island terrain model by the statistical fractals wherein the subdivision algorithm is used.

• IE interfaces
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.89-101
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• 1998

The randomness of the input variables in simulation experiments produce output responses which are also realizations of random variables. The random responses make necessary the use of statistical inferences to adequately describe the stochastic nature of the output. The analysis of the simulation output of non-terminating simulations is frequently complicated by the autocorrelation of the output data and the effect of the initial conditions that produces biased estimates. The regenerative method has been developed to deal with some of the problems created by the random nature of the simulation experiments. It provides a simple solution to some tactical problems and can produce valid statistical results. However, not all processes can he modeled using the regenerative method. Other processes modeled as regenerative may not return to a given demarcating state frequently enough to allow for adequate statistical analysis. This paper shows how the state transformation concept was successfully used in a queueing model and a job shop model. Although the first example can be analyzed using the regenerative method. it has the problem of too few recurrences under certain conditions. The second model has the problem of no recurrences. In both cases, the state transformation increase the frequency of the demarcating state. It was shown that time state transformations are regenerative and produce more cycles than the best typical discrete demarcating state in a given run length.