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A Survey on Physical Complaints Related with Farmers' Syndrome of Vinylhouse and Non-vinylhouse Farmers (비닐하우스 재배농민과 일반농민의 농부증 관련 신체증상 호소율 조사)

  • Lee, Ju-Young;Park, Jung-Han;Kim, Doo-Hie
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.27 no.2 s.46
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    • pp.258-273
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    • 1994
  • To compare the physical complaints of vinylhouse farmers with those of non-vinylhouse farmers, a personal interviews on 250 vinylhouse and 142 non-vinylhouse farmers were conducted in Sungjoo county in Kyungpook province selected by a random sampling from July 5 to July 10, 1993. Blood pressure of the subjects was also measured. Vinylhouse farmers had a higher average age, larger family size, shorter experience of farming, more working hours per day and working days per year and higher annual income than the non-vinylhouse farmers. The frequency of pesticide spray of the vinylhouse farmers was 3.4 times on the average in June 1993 as compared with 2.0 times of non-vinylhouse farmers, and 16.7 times for the vinylhouse farmers during the last one year while it was 8.3 times for the non-vinylhouse farmers in the same period. While 39.6% of vinylhouse farmers experienced pesticide intoxication symptoms such as headache, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, itching, and skin irritation, etc. during the month of June, 25.4% of non-vinylhouse farmers experienced such symptoms. The most frequent symptoms among eight symptoms that constitute the farmers' syndrome were lumbago, numbness of hand or foot, shoulder pain and dizziness regardless of sex and type of farming. Prevalence of the farmers' syndrome in male and female among vinylhouse farmers were 22.1%, 43.4%, respectively, and the prevalence in non-vinylhouse farmers was 23.2% for male and 50.7% for female. There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of farmers' syndrome between vinylhouse and non-vinylhouse farmers. However, the prevalence in female was about 2 times higher than that of male. When the effects of other factors were adjusted by multiple logistic regression for farmers' syndrome, the prevalence in female was 3.0 times higher than that of male. The prevalence of farmers' syndrome was increased as the age of farmers increased in both vinylhouse and non-vinylhouse farmers, and adjusted odds ratio of farmers' syndrome increased by 3% as the age increased by 1 year. Adjusted odds ratio for Farmers' syndrome in farmers who experienced pesticide intoxication during the month of June was 3.1 times higher than that of farmers who did not have such experience. While the prevalence of hypertension in male and female non-vinylhouse farmers were 22.4%, 13.7%, respectively, the prevalence in vinylhouse farmers were 13.5% for male and 12.0% for female. However, there was no association between farmers' syndrome and hypertension. It was found in this study that the vinylhouse farmers are at a high risk of pesticide intoxication, which is associated with tile common physical complaints. To reduce such risk it is necessary to develop farming methods which do not require the pesticide or may use less pesticide, a safer method of pesticide spraying, and the protective equipments which can be worn at a high temperature and have a better protective effect. Also education of farmers for the correct methods of ventilation after pesticide spraying in the vinylhouse and wearing the protective equipments may be considered as a supportive method. Since inappropriate posture at work and intensive labor may cause farmers' syndrome, it is recommended to develop farming tools which reduce physical burden and take a rest and exercise periodically during work. It is necessary to strengthen the hypertension management program of the Kyungpook province, because the prevalence of hypertension was as high as about 15%.

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Studies on the Cropping system of the Field Crop in Chungnam Area (충남지방(忠南地方)의 전작물(田作物) 작부체계확립(作付體系確立)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Choi, Chang Yeol;Kim, Dal Ung;Lee, Jae Chang;Kim, Young Rae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.39-51
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    • 1976
  • As an accempt to increase thc efficiency of land use and the food production to achieve the national goal in the food self-sufficiency, nine cropping systems on the upper-land were examined in pure-stand and in mixtures of soybean, corn, potato and radish. The important conclusions of this study were summarized as follows; 1. The flowering date of soybean was two or three days earlier in pure-stand than in the mixture with corn. The maturing date two days earlier in the pure-stand than in the mixture with corn. The flowering and maturing dates were not different among various cropping systems in corn. 2. The stem length of soybean was significantly different among various cropping systems. Soybean in pure-stand was shorter in stem length than with corn. 3. The number of pods per soybean plant did not give any significant differences among various cultivation methods. 4. The length of internode and the number of nodes per soybean plant in the mixture with corn were greater than in the pure-stand. In the number of branches per plant this was reversed. 5. The average stem dry weight of soybean per 10a was not significantly different among various cultivation methods. 6. The soybean yield per 10a in the pure-stand was obviously greater than the mixture and there were significant differences among cultivation method within the mixture with corn in soybean yield. 7. The 1,000-grain weight of soybean was significantly different and those in the pure-stand was heavier than those in the mixture with corn. 8. Grain weight per soybean plant and the stem diameter in the pure-stand were significantly lesser than those in the mixture with corn. 9. In the comparisons of corn in the pure-stand and in the mixture with soybean, plant height, number of ear per 10a, mean ear weight and remember of grain per plant, 100-grain weight, ear length, ear girth and number of ear pel plant were not significantly different among various cultivation methods except for the grain yield per 10a. 10. In the economic analysis, the mixture with soybean and corn gave the greatest gross income. The combination 7 was the best which was 47.6% increase income comparing with the soybean pure-stand. 11. As it can be assumed, soybean plant was influenced greatly than corn by various cropping system. It is necessary to study more complex cropping system finding and giving more desirable multiple cropping system for the farmer.

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APICAL FITNESS OF NON-STANDARDIZED GUTTA-PERCHA CONES IN SIMULATED ROOT CANALS PREPARED WITH ROTARY ROOT CANAL INSTRUMENTS (전동화일로 형성된 근관에서 비표준화 Gutta-percha Cone의 적합성)

  • Kwon, O-Sang;Kim, Sung-Kyo
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.390-398
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the apical fitness of non-standardized gutta-percha cones in root canals prepared with rotary Ni-Ti root canal instruments of various tapers and apical tip sizes. Simulated sixty curved root canals of plastic blocks were prepared with crown-down technique using rotary root canal instruments of Maillefer ProFile$^{(R)}$ .04 and .06 taper (Maillefer Instrument SA, Switzerland). Specimens were divided into six groups and prepared as follows: Group 1, prepared up to size 25 of .04 taper ; Group 2, prepared up to size 30 of .04 taper ; Group 3, prepared up to size 35 of .04 taper ; Group 4, prepared up to size 25 of .06 taper ; Group 5, prepared up to size 30 of .06 taper ; Group 6 ; prepared up to size 35 of .06 taper. After cutting off the coronal portion of plastic, blocks perpendicular to the long axis of the canal with the use of a diamond saw, apical 5mm of canal space was analyzed. Prepared apical canal spaces were duplicated using rubber base impression material to evaluate two dimensional total area of apical canal space. Various sized gutta-percha cones were applied in the 5mm-apical canal space, which were size 25, size 30 and size 35 standardized gutta-percha cone, Diadent Dia-Pro ISO-.04$^{TM}$ and .06$^{TM}$(Diadent, Korea), and medium-fine (MF), fine (F), fine-medium (FM) and medium (M) sized non-standardized gutta-percha cones (Diadent, Korea). Coronal excess gutta-percha were cut off with a sharp blade. Photographs of impressed apical canal spaces and gutta-percha cones were taken with a CCD camera under a stereomicroscope and stored in a computer. Areas of the total canal space and gutta-percha cones were calculated using a digitalized image analysing program, CompuScope (Sungjin Multimedia Co., Korea). Ratio of apical fitness was obtained by calculating the area of gutta-percha cone to the total area of the canal space. The data were analysed statistically using One-way Analysis of Variance and Duncan's Multiple Range Test. The results were as follows: 1. In canals prepared up to size 25 ProFile$^{(R)}$ of .04 taper, non-standardized MF and F cones occupied significantly more canal space than Dia-Pro ISO-.04$^{TM}$ or size 25 standardized ones (p<0.05). 2. In canals prepared up to size 30 ProFile$^{(R)}$ of .04 taper, non-standardized F cones occupied significantly more canal space than Dia-Pro ISO-.04$^{TM}$ or size 30 standardized ones (p<0.05), and non-standardized MF cones occupied more canal space than size 30 standardized ones (p<0.05). 3. In canals prepared up to size 35 ProFile$^{(R)}$ of .04 taper, there was no significant difference in canal space occupation among non-standardized MF and F, size 35 standardized, and Dia-Pro ISO-.04$^{TM}$ cones (p>0.05). 4. In canals prepared up to size 25 ProFile$^{(R)}$ of .06 taper, non-standardized MF and F cones occupied significantly more canal space than Dia-Pro ISO-.06$^{TM}$, or size 25 standardized ones (p<0.05), and Dia-Pro ISO-.06$^{TM}$, cones occupied significantly more space than size 25 standardized ones (p<0.05). 5. In canals prepared up to size 30 ProFile$^{(R)}$ of .06 taper, non-standardized FM cones occupied significantly more canal space than Dia-Pro ISO-.06$^{TM}$ or size 30 standardized ones (p<0.05), and non-standardized F cones occupied significantly more canal space than size 30 standardized ones (p<0.05). 6. In canals prepared up to size 35 ProFile$^{(R)}$ of .06 taper, non-standardized M and FM, Dia-Pro ISO-.06$^{TM}$ occupied significantly more canal space than size 35 standardized ones (p<0.05). In summary, in both canals prepared with .04 or .06 taper ProFile$^{(R)}$, non-standardized cones showed better fitness than Dia-Pro ISO$^{TM}$ or standardized ones, which was more characteristic in smaller canals.

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Evaluation of Tuberculosis Activity in Patients with Anthracofibrosis by Use of Serum Levels of IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ and TBGL(Tuberculous Glycolipid) Antibody (Anthracofibrosis의 결핵활동성 지표로서 혈청 IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$, 그리고 TBGL(tuberculous glycolipid) antibody 측정의 의의)

  • Jeong, Do Young;Cha, Young Joo;Lee, Byoung Jun;Jung, Hye Ryung;Lee, Sang Hun;Shin, Jong Wook;Kim, Jae-Yeol;Park, In Won;Choi, Byoung Whui
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.250-256
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    • 2003
  • Background : Anthracofibrosis, a descriptive term for multiple black pigmentation with fibrosis on bronchoscopic examination, has a close relationship with active tuberculosis (TB). However, TB activity is determined in the later stage by the TB culture results in some cases of anthracofibrosis. Therefore, it is necessary to identify early markers of TB activity in anthracofibrosis. There have been several reports investigating the serum levels of IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ and TBGL antibody for the evaluation of TB activity. In the present study, we tried to measure the above mentioned serologic markers for the evaluation of TB activity in patients with anthracofibrosis. Methods : Anthracofibrosis was defined when there was deep pigmentation (in more than two lobar bronchi) and fibrotic stenosis of the bronchi on bronchoscopic examination. The serum of patients with anthracofibrosis was collected and stored under refrigeration before the start of anti-TB medication. The serum of healthy volunteers (N=16), patients with active TB prior to (N=22), and after (N=13), 6 month-medication was also collected and stored. Serum IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ were measured with ELISA kit (R&D system, USA) and serum TBGL antibody was measured with TBGL EIA kit (Kyowa Inc, Japan). Results : Serum levels of IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$ in healthy volunteers, active TB patients before and after medication, and patients with anthracofibrosis were $640{\pm}174$, $1,611{\pm}2,423$, $953{\pm}562$, and $863{\pm}401$ pg/ml, respectively. The Serum IFN-${\gamma}$ levels were 0, $8.16{\pm}17.34$, $0.70{\pm}2.53$, and $2.33{\pm}6.67$ pg/ml, and TBGL antibody levels were $0.83{\pm}0.80$, $5.91{\pm}6.71$, $6.86{\pm}6.85$, and $3.22{\pm}2.59$ U/ml, respectively. The serum level of TBGL antibody was lower than of other groups (p<0.05). There was no significant difference of serum IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$ and IFN-${\gamma}$ levels among the four groups. Conclusion : The serum levels of IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ and TBGL antibody were not useful in the evaluation of TB activity in patients with anthracofibrosis. More useful ways need to be developed for the differentiation of active TB in patients with anthracofibrosis.

Analysis on Factors Influencing Welfare Spending of Local Authority : Implementing the Detailed Data Extracted from the Social Security Information System (지방자치단체 자체 복지사업 지출 영향요인 분석 : 사회보장정보시스템을 통한 접근)

  • Kim, Kyoung-June;Ham, Young-Jin;Lee, Ki-Dong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2013
  • Researchers in welfare services of local government in Korea have rather been on isolated issues as disables, childcare, aging phenomenon, etc. (Kang, 2004; Jung et al., 2009). Lately, local officials, yet, realize that they need more comprehensive welfare services for all residents, not just for above-mentioned focused groups. Still cases dealt with focused group approach have been a main research stream due to various reason(Jung et al., 2009; Lee, 2009; Jang, 2011). Social Security Information System is an information system that comprehensively manages 292 welfare benefits provided by 17 ministries and 40 thousand welfare services provided by 230 local authorities in Korea. The purpose of the system is to improve efficiency of social welfare delivery process. The study of local government expenditure has been on the rise over the last few decades after the restarting the local autonomy, but these studies have limitations on data collection. Measurement of a local government's welfare efforts(spending) has been primarily on expenditures or budget for an individual, set aside for welfare. This practice of using monetary value for an individual as a "proxy value" for welfare effort(spending) is based on the assumption that expenditure is directly linked to welfare efforts(Lee et al., 2007). This expenditure/budget approach commonly uses total welfare amount or percentage figure as dependent variables (Wildavsky, 1985; Lee et al., 2007; Kang, 2000). However, current practice of using actual amount being used or percentage figure as a dependent variable may have some limitation; since budget or expenditure is greatly influenced by the total budget of a local government, relying on such monetary value may create inflate or deflate the true "welfare effort" (Jang, 2012). In addition, government budget usually contain a large amount of administrative cost, i.e., salary, for local officials, which is highly unrelated to the actual welfare expenditure (Jang, 2011). This paper used local government welfare service data from the detailed data sets linked to the Social Security Information System. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors that affect social welfare spending of 230 local authorities in 2012. The paper applied multiple regression based model to analyze the pooled financial data from the system. Based on the regression analysis, the following factors affecting self-funded welfare spending were identified. In our research model, we use the welfare budget/total budget(%) of a local government as a true measurement for a local government's welfare effort(spending). Doing so, we exclude central government subsidies or support being used for local welfare service. It is because central government welfare support does not truly reflect the welfare efforts(spending) of a local. The dependent variable of this paper is the volume of the welfare spending and the independent variables of the model are comprised of three categories, in terms of socio-demographic perspectives, the local economy and the financial capacity of local government. This paper categorized local authorities into 3 groups, districts, and cities and suburb areas. The model used a dummy variable as the control variable (local political factor). This paper demonstrated that the volume of the welfare spending for the welfare services is commonly influenced by the ratio of welfare budget to total local budget, the population of infants, self-reliance ratio and the level of unemployment factor. Interestingly, the influential factors are different by the size of local government. Analysis of determinants of local government self-welfare spending, we found a significant effect of local Gov. Finance characteristic in degree of the local government's financial independence, financial independence rate, rate of social welfare budget, and regional economic in opening-to-application ratio, and sociology of population in rate of infants. The result means that local authorities should have differentiated welfare strategies according to their conditions and circumstances. There is a meaning that this paper has successfully proven the significant factors influencing welfare spending of local government in Korea.

Measuring the Public Service Quality Using Process Mining: Focusing on N City's Building Licensing Complaint Service (프로세스 마이닝을 이용한 공공서비스의 품질 측정: N시의 건축 인허가 민원 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jung Seung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2019
  • As public services are provided in various forms, including e-government, the level of public demand for public service quality is increasing. Although continuous measurement and improvement of the quality of public services is needed to improve the quality of public services, traditional surveys are costly and time-consuming and have limitations. Therefore, there is a need for an analytical technique that can measure the quality of public services quickly and accurately at any time based on the data generated from public services. In this study, we analyzed the quality of public services based on data using process mining techniques for civil licensing services in N city. It is because the N city's building license complaint service can secure data necessary for analysis and can be spread to other institutions through public service quality management. This study conducted process mining on a total of 3678 building license complaint services in N city for two years from January 2014, and identified process maps and departments with high frequency and long processing time. According to the analysis results, there was a case where a department was crowded or relatively few at a certain point in time. In addition, there was a reasonable doubt that the increase in the number of complaints would increase the time required to complete the complaints. According to the analysis results, the time required to complete the complaint was varied from the same day to a year and 146 days. The cumulative frequency of the top four departments of the Sewage Treatment Division, the Waterworks Division, the Urban Design Division, and the Green Growth Division exceeded 50% and the cumulative frequency of the top nine departments exceeded 70%. Higher departments were limited and there was a great deal of unbalanced load among departments. Most complaint services have a variety of different patterns of processes. Research shows that the number of 'complementary' decisions has the greatest impact on the length of a complaint. This is interpreted as a lengthy period until the completion of the entire complaint is required because the 'complement' decision requires a physical period in which the complainant supplements and submits the documents again. In order to solve these problems, it is possible to drastically reduce the overall processing time of the complaints by preparing thoroughly before the filing of the complaints or in the preparation of the complaints, or the 'complementary' decision of other complaints. By clarifying and disclosing the cause and solution of one of the important data in the system, it helps the complainant to prepare in advance and convinces that the documents prepared by the public information will be passed. The transparency of complaints can be sufficiently predictable. Documents prepared by pre-disclosed information are likely to be processed without problems, which not only shortens the processing period but also improves work efficiency by eliminating the need for renegotiation or multiple tasks from the point of view of the processor. The results of this study can be used to find departments with high burdens of civil complaints at certain points of time and to flexibly manage the workforce allocation between departments. In addition, as a result of analyzing the pattern of the departments participating in the consultation by the characteristics of the complaints, it is possible to use it for automation or recommendation when requesting the consultation department. In addition, by using various data generated during the complaint process and using machine learning techniques, the pattern of the complaint process can be found. It can be used for automation / intelligence of civil complaint processing by making this algorithm and applying it to the system. This study is expected to be used to suggest future public service quality improvement through process mining analysis on civil service.

Excavation of Kim Jeong-gi and Korean Archeology (창산 김정기의 유적조사와 한국고고학)

  • Lee, Ju-heun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.4-19
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    • 2017
  • Kim Jeong-gi (pen-name: Changsan, Mar. 31, 1930 - Aug. 26, 2015) made a major breakthrough in the history of cultural property excavation in Korea: In 1959, he began to develop an interest in cultural heritage after starting work as an employee of the National Museum of Korea. For about thirty years until he retired from the National Research Institute of Cultural Heritage in 1987, he devoted his life to the excavation of our country's historical relics and artifacts and compiled countless data about them. He continued striving to identify the unique value and meaning of our cultural heritage in universities and excavation organizations until he passed away in 2015. Changsan spearheaded all of Korea's monumental archeological excavations and research. He is widely known at home and abroad as a scholar of Korean archeology, particularly in the early years of its existence as an academic discipline. As such, he has had a considerable influence on the development of Korean archeology. Although his multiple activities and roles are meaningful in terms of the country's archaeological history, there are limits to his contributions nevertheless. The Deoksugung Palace period (1955-1972), when the National Museum of Korea was situated in Deoksugung Palace, is considered to be a time of great significance for Korean archeology, as relics with diverse characteristics were researched during this period. Changsan actively participated in archeological surveys of prehistoric shell mounds and dwellings, conducted surveys of historical relics, measured many historical sites, and took charge of photographing and drawing such relics. He put to good use all the excavation techniques that he had learned in Japan, while his countrywide archaeological surveys are highly regarded in terms of academic history as well. What particularly sets his perspectives apart in archaeological terms is the fact that he raised the possibility of underwater tombs in ancient times, and also coined the term "Haemi Culture" as part of a theory of local culture aimed at furthering understanding of Bronze Age cultures in Korea. His input was simply breathtaking. In 1969, the National Research Institute of Cultural Heritage (NRICH) was founded and Changsan was appointed as its head. Despite the many difficulties he faced in running the institute with limited financial and human resources, he gave everything he had to research and field studies of the brilliant cultural heritages that Korea has preserved for so long. Changsan succeeded in restoring Bulguksa Temple, and followed this up with the successful excavation of the Cheonmachong Tomb and the Hwangnamdaechong Tomb in Gyeongju. He then explored the Hwangnyongsa Temple site, Bunhwangsa Temple, and the Mireuksa Temple site in order to systematically evaluate the Buddhist culture and structures of the Three Kingdoms Period. We can safely say that the large excavation projects that he organized and carried out at that time not only laid the foundations for Korean archeology but also made significant contributions to studies in related fields. Above all, in terms of the developmental process of Korean archeology, the achievements he generated with his exceptional passion during the period are almost too numerous to mention, but they include his systematization of various excavation methods, cultivation of archaeologists, popularization of archeological excavations, formalization of survey records, and promotion of data disclosure. On the other hand, although this "Excavation King" devoted himself to excavations, kept precise records, and paid keen attention to every detail, he failed to overcome the limitations of his era in the process of defining the nature of cultural remains and interpreting historical sites and structures. Despite his many roles in Korean archeology, the fact that he left behind a controversy over the identity of the occupant of the Hwangnamdaechong Tomb remains a sore spot in his otherwise perfect reputation.

Development of Analytical Method for Detection of Fungicide Validamycin A Residues in Agricultural Products Using LC-MS/MS (LC-MS/MS를 이용한 농산물 중 살균제 Validamycin A의 시험법 개발)

  • Park, Ji-Su;Do, Jung-Ah;Lee, Han Sol;Park, Shin-min;Cho, Sung Min;Shin, Hye-Sun;Jang, Dong Eun;Cho, Myong-Shik;Jung, Yong-hyun;Lee, Kangbong
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2019
  • Validamycin A is an aminoglycoside fungicide produced by Streptomyces hygroscopicus that inhibits trehalase. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for detecting validamycin A in agricultural samples to establish MRL values for use in Korea. The validamycin A residues in samples were extracted using methanol/water (50/50, v/v) and purified with a hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) cartridges. The analyte was quantified and confirmed by liquid chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS) in positive ion mode using multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). Matrix-matched calibration curves were linear over the calibration ranges (0.005~0.5 ng) into a blank extract with $R^2$ > 0.99. The limits of detection and quantification were 0.005 and 0.01 mg/kg, respectively. For validation validamycin A, recovery studies were carried out three different concentration levels (LOQ, $LOQ{\times}10$, $LOQ{\times}50$, n = 5) with five replicates at each level. The average recovery range was from 72.5~118.3%, with relative standard deviation (RSD) less than 10.3%. All values were consistent with the criteria ranges requested in the Codex guidelines (CAC/GL 40-1993, 2003) and the NIFDS (National Institute of Food and Drug Safety) guideline (2016). Therefore, the proposed analytical method is accurate, effective and sensitive for validamycin A determination in agricultural commodities.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Development of Information Extraction System from Multi Source Unstructured Documents for Knowledge Base Expansion (지식베이스 확장을 위한 멀티소스 비정형 문서에서의 정보 추출 시스템의 개발)

  • Choi, Hyunseung;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju;Shin, Dongwook;Lee, Yong Hun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.111-136
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we propose a methodology to extract answer information about queries from various types of unstructured documents collected from multi-sources existing on web in order to expand knowledge base. The proposed methodology is divided into the following steps. 1) Collect relevant documents from Wikipedia, Naver encyclopedia, and Naver news sources for "subject-predicate" separated queries and classify the proper documents. 2) Determine whether the sentence is suitable for extracting information and derive the confidence. 3) Based on the predicate feature, extract the information in the proper sentence and derive the overall confidence of the information extraction result. In order to evaluate the performance of the information extraction system, we selected 400 queries from the artificial intelligence speaker of SK-Telecom. Compared with the baseline model, it is confirmed that it shows higher performance index than the existing model. The contribution of this study is that we develop a sequence tagging model based on bi-directional LSTM-CRF using the predicate feature of the query, with this we developed a robust model that can maintain high recall performance even in various types of unstructured documents collected from multiple sources. The problem of information extraction for knowledge base extension should take into account heterogeneous characteristics of source-specific document types. The proposed methodology proved to extract information effectively from various types of unstructured documents compared to the baseline model. There is a limitation in previous research that the performance is poor when extracting information about the document type that is different from the training data. In addition, this study can prevent unnecessary information extraction attempts from the documents that do not include the answer information through the process for predicting the suitability of information extraction of documents and sentences before the information extraction step. It is meaningful that we provided a method that precision performance can be maintained even in actual web environment. The information extraction problem for the knowledge base expansion has the characteristic that it can not guarantee whether the document includes the correct answer because it is aimed at the unstructured document existing in the real web. When the question answering is performed on a real web, previous machine reading comprehension studies has a limitation that it shows a low level of precision because it frequently attempts to extract an answer even in a document in which there is no correct answer. The policy that predicts the suitability of document and sentence information extraction is meaningful in that it contributes to maintaining the performance of information extraction even in real web environment. The limitations of this study and future research directions are as follows. First, it is a problem related to data preprocessing. In this study, the unit of knowledge extraction is classified through the morphological analysis based on the open source Konlpy python package, and the information extraction result can be improperly performed because morphological analysis is not performed properly. To enhance the performance of information extraction results, it is necessary to develop an advanced morpheme analyzer. Second, it is a problem of entity ambiguity. The information extraction system of this study can not distinguish the same name that has different intention. If several people with the same name appear in the news, the system may not extract information about the intended query. In future research, it is necessary to take measures to identify the person with the same name. Third, it is a problem of evaluation query data. In this study, we selected 400 of user queries collected from SK Telecom 's interactive artificial intelligent speaker to evaluate the performance of the information extraction system. n this study, we developed evaluation data set using 800 documents (400 questions * 7 articles per question (1 Wikipedia, 3 Naver encyclopedia, 3 Naver news) by judging whether a correct answer is included or not. To ensure the external validity of the study, it is desirable to use more queries to determine the performance of the system. This is a costly activity that must be done manually. Future research needs to evaluate the system for more queries. It is also necessary to develop a Korean benchmark data set of information extraction system for queries from multi-source web documents to build an environment that can evaluate the results more objectively.