• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.28 no.9
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• pp.1226-1234
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• 2015

The development of effective genetic evaluations and selection of sires requires accurate estimates of genetic parameters for all economically important traits in the breeding goal. The main objective of this study was to assess the relative performance of the traditional lactation average model (LAM) against the random regression test-day model (RRM) in the estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values for Holstein Friesian herds in Ethiopia. The data used consisted of 6,500 test-day (TD) records from 800 first-lactation Holstein Friesian cows that calved between 1997 and 2013. Co-variance components were estimated using the average information restricted maximum likelihood method under single trait animal model. The estimate of heritability for first-lactation milk yield was 0.30 from LAM whilst estimates from the RRM model ranged from 0.17 to 0.29 for the different stages of lactation. Genetic correlations between different TDs in first-lactation Holstein Friesian ranged from 0.37 to 0.99. The observed genetic correlation was less than unity between milk yields at different TDs, which indicated that the assumption of LAM may not be optimal for accurate evaluation of the genetic merit of animals. A close look at estimated breeding values from both models showed that RRM had higher standard deviation compared to LAM indicating that the TD model makes efficient utilization of TD information. Correlations of breeding values between models ranged from 0.90 to 0.96 for different group of sires and cows and marked re-rankings were observed in top sires and cows in moving from the traditional LAM to RRM evaluations.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.244-253
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• 2013

In industries, shipping is an important issue in improving the forecasting accuracy of sales. This paper introduces a hybrid method and plural methods are compared. Focusing the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) that is equivalent to (1, 1) order autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model equation, a new method of estimating the smoothing constant in ESM had been proposed previously by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Generally, the smoothing constant is selected arbitrarily. However, this paper utilizes the above stated theoretical solution. Firstly, we make estimation of ARMA model parameter and then estimate the smoothing constant. Thus, theoretical solution is derived in a simple way and it may be utilized in various fields. Furthermore, combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. This method is executed in the following method. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order nonlinear function and 3rd order nonlinear function is executed to the original production data of two kinds of bread. Genetic algorithm is utilized to search the optimal weight for the weighting parameters of linear and nonlinear function. For comparison, the monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non-monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful for the time series that has various trend characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.4887-4907
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• 2017

Accurate traffic flow forecasting is critical to the development and implementation of city intelligent transportation systems. Therefore, it is one of the most important components in the research of urban traffic scheduling. However, traffic flow forecasting involves a rather complex nonlinear data pattern, particularly during workday peak periods, and a lot of research has shown that traffic flow data reveals a seasonal trend. This paper proposes a new traffic flow forecasting model that combines seasonal relevance vector regression with the hybrid chaotic simulated annealing method (SRVRCSA). Additionally, a numerical example of traffic flow data from The Transportation Data Research Laboratory is used to elucidate the forecasting performance of the proposed SRVRCSA model. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed model yields more accurate forecasting results than the seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), the double seasonal Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (DSHWES), and the relevance vector regression with hybrid Chaotic Simulated Annealing method (RVRCSA) models. The forecasting performance of RVRCSA with different kernel functions is also studied.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.823-826
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• 2010

In this study, the control method of assistive robot was developed for the elderly. The control method of gait-assistant-robot was proposed considering the change of COP (Center of Pelves), BOS (Base of Support) and comparative analysis of the moving velocity for the elderly. We analyzed the movement of COP of the body and its velocity of the elderly equipped with manual walker and gait-assistant-robot. As a result, change in COP was greater from left to right than from anterior to posterior; also, the average velocity of the movement of COP and manual walker for manual walker gait was 0.7(m/s). Therefore, it is necessary to concern more on the left-right balance and synchronization of the velocity of COP.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.193-200
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• 2004

The Active Constrained Layer Damping(ACLD) combines the simplicity and reliability of passive damping with the low weight and high efficiency of active control to attain high damping characteristics. The proposed ACLD treatment consists of a viscoelastic damping which is sandwiched between an active piezoelectric layer and a host structure. In this manner, the smart ACLD consists of a Passive Constrained Layer Damping(PCLD) which is augmented with an active control in response to the structural vibrations. The arc type shell model is introduced to describe the interactions between the vibrating host structure, piezoelectric actuator and viscoelastic damping. The system is modeled by applying ARMAX model and changing a state-space form through the system identification method. An optimum control law for the piezo actuator is obtain by LQR(Linear Quadratic Regulator) method. The performance of the ACLD system is determined and compared with PCLD in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ACLD treatment. Also, the actuation capability of a piezo actuator is examined experimentally by varying thickness of viscoelastic material(VEM).

• Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.414-419
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• 2019

An ultrasonic based magnetostrictive position sensor (MPS) provides an indication of real target position. It determines the real target position by multiplying the propagation speed of ultrasonic wave and the time-of-flight between the receiving signals; one is the initial signal by an excitation current and the other is the reflection signal by the ultrasonic wave. The propagation speed of the ultrasonic wave depends on the temperature of the waveguide. Hence, the change of the propagation speed in various environments is a critical factor in terms of the positioning accuracy in the MPS. This means that the influence of the changes in the waveguide temperature needs to be compensated. In this paper, we presents a novel way to improve the positioning accuracy of MPSs using temperature compensation for waveguide. The proposed method used the inherent measurement blind area for the structure of the MPS, which can simultaneously measure the position of the moving target and the temperature of the waveguide without any additional devices. The average positional error was approximately -23.9 mm and -1.9 mm before and after compensation, respectively. It was confirmed that the positioning accuracy was improved by approximately 93%.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.529-540
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• 2018

As the equipment of the military has recently become more sophisticated and expensive, the cost of purchasing spare parts is also steadily increasing. Therefore, demand forecast accuracy is also becoming an issue for the effective execution of the spare parts budget. This study predicts the demand by using the data of spare parts consumption of the KF-16C fighter which is being operated in the Republic of Korea Air Force. In this paper, SARIMA(Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) is applied to seasonal data after dividing the spare parts consumptions into seasonal data and non-seasonal data. Proposing new methods, Majority Voting and Hybrid Method, to the non-seasonal data which consists of spare parts of low consumption with unclear pattern, We want to prove that the demand forecast accuracy of spare parts improves.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.111-121
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• 2004

For the long-term strategic water resources planning, forecasting the future streamflow change is important to meet the demand of a growing society. The streamflow variation to the decade-long precipitation was investigated for the two major stage gauging stations in Korea. Precipitation and runoff characteristics have been analyzed at Yongwol stream stage in the Han River as well as Sutong stream stage in the Kum River for the future water resources management strategies. Monte Carlo method has been applied to estimate the future precipitation and runoff. Based on the trend line of 10-year moving average of runoff depth for the historical runoff records, the relation between runoff and the time variation was examined in more detail using regression analysis. This study showed that the surface flows have been significantly decreased while precipitation has been stable in these basins. Decreasing in runoff reflects the regional watershed characteristics such as forest cover changes. The findings of this study could contribute to the planning and development for the efficient water resources utilization.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.27 no.1B
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• pp.79-89
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• 2002

A synchronization method is presented for IEEE 802.11a wireless OFDM system. First the coarse symbol synchronization is achieved by measuring the moving power average of the received envelope signal. The detection probabilities and optimum thresholds for the symbol synchronization are derived. By measuring the correlation between the short training signal and received envelope signal, fine symbol synchronization can be acquired. And the frequency synchronization is achieved using long training signal. A symbol synchronization error causes a phase rotation of the constellation. After the compensation for fading channel, the rotation due to the symbol timing error can be corrected. With this method, synchronization can be well achieved over frequency selective channels.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.421-427
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• 2013

The dependence between wind speeds in multiple wind sites has a considerable impact on the reliability of power systems containing wind energy. This paper presents a new method to generate dependent wind speed time series (WSTS) based on copulas theory. The basic feature of the method lies in separating multivariate WSTS into dependence structure and univariate time series. The dependence structure is modeled through the use of copulas, which, unlike the cross-correlation matrix, give a complete description of the joint distribution. An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is applied to represent univariate time series of wind speed. The proposed model is illustrated using wind data from two sites in Canada. The IEEE Reliability Test System (IEEE-RTS) is used to examine the proposed model and the impact of wind speed dependence between different wind regimes on the generation system reliability. The results confirm that the wind speed dependence has a negative effect on the generation system reliability.