• 한국의류산업학회지
• /
• 제19권3호
• /
• pp.289-295
• /
• 2017

This study aims to develop clothing sales forecast system using weather information. As the annual temperature variation affects changes in daily sales of seasonal clothes, sales period can be predicted growth, peak and decline period by changes of temperature. From this perspective, we analyzed the correlation between temperature and sales. Moving average method was applied in order to indicate long-term trend of temperature and sales changes. 7-day moving average temperature at the start/end points of the growth, peak, and decline period of S/S clothing sales was calculated as a reference temperature for sales forecast. According to the 2013 data analysis results, when 7-day moving average temperature value becomes $4^{\circ}C$ or higher, the growth period of S/S clothing sales starts. The peak period of S/S clothing sales starts at $17^{\circ}C$, up to the highest temperature. When temperature drops below $21^{\circ}C$ after the peak temperature, the decline period of S/S clothing sales is over. The reference temperature was applied to 2014 temperature data to forecast sales period. Through comparing the forecasted sales periods with the actual sales data, validity of the sales forecast system has been verified. Finally this study proposes 'clothing sales forecast system using weather information' as the method of clothing sales forecast.

• 전력전자학회논문지
• /
• 제5권5호
• /
• pp.459-466
• /
• 2000

전정기관 자극용 회전자극기에 있어서 외란 관측기를 이용한 PMSM(permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor)의 강인한 정밀 속도 제어 방법에 대해서 제안한다. 본 제어기는 더욱 정확한 전정기관 평가를 가능하게 한다. 현기증을 유발시키기 위해서 지면에 수직인 회전축을 갖는 2D 자극기가 사용되어져 왔다. 그러나 정확한 현기증의 원인 규명을 위해서 회전축을 기울인 3D 자극기가 필요하다. 3D 자극기와 같이 기울임을 갖는 회 전자극기의 경우, 회전축에 대한 무게중심의 이격은 불평형 부하를 유발하게 된다. 이러한 경우에 대하여 강인한 속도 제어를 위한 외란 관측기를 이용하는 보상방법을 연구하였다 정확한 전정기관 자극을 위해 정밀한 속도 제어가 필요하며, 이러한 정밀 속도 제어에 있어서 외란의 영향을 제거하기 위해 데드비트 관측기와 같은 높은 이득을 갖는 관측기가 필요하다. 외란 관측기의 위치 제어에 대한 응용이 연구되어 졌다. 그러나 속도와 같은 노이즈가 많은 신호를 이용한 속도 제어에 있어서 데드비트 관측기는 노이즈 증폭 효과를 가져와 적용이 어렵다는 문제를 가지고 있다. 따라서 MA(Moving Average)처리를 이용하여 노이즈 효과를 저감한다. 이상의 제안된 알고리즘의 효과를 실험으로 보였다.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
• /
• 제19권8호
• /
• pp.816-827
• /
• 2009

This paper deals with a bearing faults localization technique based on holographic approach by visualizing sound radiated from the faults. The main idea stems from the phenomenon that bearing faults in a moving vehicle generate impulsive sound. To visualize fault signal from the moving vehicle, we can use the moving frame acoustic holography [Kwon, H.-S. and Kim, Y.-H., 1998, "Moving Frame Technique for Planar Acoustic Holography," J. Acoust. Soc. Am. Vol. 103, No. 4, pp. 1734${\sim}$1741]. However, it is not easy to localize faults only by applying the method. This is because the microphone array measures noise(for example, noise from other parts of the vehicle and the wind noise) as well as the fault signal while the vehicle passes by the array. To reduce the effect of noise, we propose two ideas which utilize the characteristics of fault signal. The first one is to average holograms for several frequencies to reduce the random noise. The second one is to apply the partial field decomposition algorithm [Nam, K.-U., Kim, Y.-H., 2004, "A Partial Field Decomposition Algorithm and Its Examples for Near-field Acoustic Holography," J. of Acoust. Soc. Am. Vol. 116, No. 1, pp. 172${\sim}$185] to the moving source, which can separate the fault signal and noise. Basic theory of those methods is introduced and how they can be applied to localize bearing faults is demonstrated. Experimental results via a miniature vehicle showed how well the proposed method finds out the location of source in practice.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제55권2호
• /
• pp.85-93
• /
• 2006

Since the SMP(System Marginal Price) is a vital factor to the market participants who intend to maximize the their profit and to the ISO(Independent System Operator) who wish to operate the electricity market in a stable sense, the short-term marginal price forecasting should be performed correctly. In an electricity market the short-term market price affects considerably the short-term trading between the market entities. Therefore, the exact forecasting of SMP can influence on the profit of market participants. This paper presents a new methodology for a day-ahead SMP forecasting using ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model based on the time-series method. And also the correction algorithm is proposed to minimize the forecasting error in order to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the SMP forecasting. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method, the case studies are performed using historical data of SMP in 2004 published by KPX(Korea Power Exchange).

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제35권3호
• /
• pp.52-61
• /
• 2012

The design method for cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts, which can be robust to autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling errors, has not been frequently proposed so far. This is because the CUSUM statistic involves a maximum function, which is intractable in mathematical derivations, and thus any modification on the statistic can not be favorably made. We propose residual-based robust CUSUM control charts for monitoring autocorrelated processes. In order to incorporate the effects of ARMA modeling errors into the design method, we modify parameters (reference value and decision interval) of CUSUM control charts using the approximate expected variance of residuals generated in model uncertainty, rather than directly modify the form of the CUSUM statistic. The expected variance of residuals is derived using a second-order Taylor approximation and the general form is represented using the order of ARMA models with the sample size for ARMA modeling. Based on the Monte carlo simulation, we demonstrate that the proposed method can be effectively used for statistical process control (SPC) charts, which are robust to ARMA modeling errors.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
• /
• 제28권1호
• /
• pp.50-56
• /
• 2014

Accurate midterm load forecasting is essential to preventive maintenance programs and reliable demand supply programs. This paper describes a midterm load forecasting method using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model which has been widely used in time series forecasting due to its accuracy and predictability. The various ARIMA models are examined in order to find the optimal model having minimum error of the midterm load forecasting. The proposed method is applied to forecast 104-week load pattern using the historical data in Korea. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by forecasting 104-week load from 2011 to 2012 by using historical data from 2002 to 2010.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
• /
• 제20권8호
• /
• pp.1537-1545
• /
• 2016

실시간영상에서 객체의 분할 및 추적은 침입자 감시와 로봇의 물체 추적, 증강현실의 객체 추적등 다양한 분야에서 사용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 초기 입력 영상의 일부를 학습하여 배경모델로 제작한 후, 배경제거 방법을 이용하여 움직이는 객체의 분할을 통해 객체를 검출하였다. 검출된 객체의 영역을 기반으로 HSV 색상히스토그램과 파티클 필터를 이용하여 객체의 움직임을 추적하는 방법을 제안한다. 제안한 분할 방법은 평균 배경모델을 이용한 방법보다 주변환경 변화의 영향을 적게 받으며, 움직이는 객체의 검출 성능이 더욱 우수하였다. 또한 단일 객체 및 다수의 객체가 존재하는 환경에서 추적 객체가 유사한 색상 객체와 겹치는 경우, 추적 객체의 영역 절반 이상이 가려지는 경우에도 지속적으로 추적하는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 2개의 비디오 영상을 사용한 실험결과는 평균 중첩율 85.9%, 추적률 96.3%의 성능을 보여준다.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.12-18
• /
• 2008

This paper describes two run-to-run controllers, a nonlinear multiple exponential-weight moving-average (NMEWMA) controller and a dynamic model-tuning minimum-variance (DMTMV) controller, for photolithography processes. The relationships between the input recipes (exposure dose and focus) and output variables (critical dimensions) were formed using an experimental design method, and the photolithography process model was built using a multiple regression analysis. Both the NMEWMA and DMTMV controllers could update the process model and obtain the optimal recipes for the next run. Quantified improvements were obtained from simulations and real photolithography processes.

• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제34권3호
• /
• pp.328-336
• /
• 2008

This research proposes a method for economic-statistical design of adaptive moving average (A-MA) charts. The basic idea of the A-MA chart is to accumulate previous samples selectively in order to increase the sensitivity. The A-MA chart is a kind of adaptive chart such as the variable sampling size (VSS) chart. A major advantage of the A-MA chart over the VSS chart is that it is easy to maintain rational subgroups by using the fixed sampling size. A steady state cost rate function is constructed based on Lorenzen and Vance (1986) model. The cost rate function is optimized with respect to five design parameters. Computational experiments show that the A-MA chart is superior to the VSS chart as well as to the Shewhart $\bar{X}$ chart in the economic-statistical sense.

• Nutritional Sciences
• /
• 제9권3호
• /
• pp.201-211
• /
• 2006

The purpose of this study was to provide dietitians with the guidance in forecasting meal counts for a university/college foodservice facility. The forecasting methods to be analyzed were the following: naive model 1, 2, and 3; moving average, double moving average, simple exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, Holt's, and Winters' methods, and simple linear regression. The accuracy of the forecasting methods was measured using mean squared error and Theil's U-statistic. This study showed how to project meal counts using 10 forecasting methods for dietitians. The results of this study showed that WES was the most accurate forecasting method, followed by $na\ddot{i}ve$ 2 and naive 3 models. However, naive model 2 and 3 were recommended for using by dietitians in university/college dining facilities because of the accuracy and ease of use. In addition, the 2000 spring semester data were better than the 2000 fall semester data to forecast 2001spring semester data.