• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.14-20
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• 2012

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate and quantify the risk of both individual and combined health behaviors on premature mortality in middle aged men in Korea. Methods: In total, 14 533 male subjects 40 to 59 years of age were recruited. At enrollment, subjects completed a baseline questionnaire, which included information about socio-demographic factors, past medical history, and life style. During the follow-up period from 1993 to 2008, we identified 990 all-cause premature deaths using national death certificates. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of each health risk behavior, which included smoking, drinking, physical inactivity, and lack of sleep hours. Using the Cox model, each health behavior was assigned a risk score proportional to its regression coefficient value. Health risk scores were calculated for each patient and the HR of all-cause premature mortality was calculated according to risk score. Results: Current smoking and drinking, high body mass index, less sleep hours, and less education were significantly associated with all-cause premature mortality, while regular exercise was associated with a reduced risk. When combined by health risk score, there was a strong trend for increased mortality risk with increased score (p-trend < 0.01). When compared with the 1-9 score group, HRs of the 10-19 and 20-28 score groups were 2.58 (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 2.19 to 3.03) and 7.09 (95% CIs, 5.21 to 9.66), respectively. Conclusions: Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking, drinking, and regular exercise, have considerable impact on premature mortality and should be assessed in combination.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.119-134
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• 2021

Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths in the world. Investigation of mortality rates is pivotal to adequately understand the determinants causing this disease, allocate public health resources, and apply different control measures. Our study aims to analyze and forecast age-specific US lung cancer mortality trends. We report functions of mortality rates for different age groups by incorporating functional principal component analysis to understand the underlying mortality trend with respect to time. The mortality rates of lung cancer have been higher in men than in women. These rates have been decreasing for all age groups since 1990 in men. The same pattern is observed for women since 2000 except for the age group 85 and above. No significant changes in mortality rates in lower age groups have been reported for both gender. Lung cancer mortality rates for males are relatively higher than females. Ten-year predictions of mortality rates depict a continuous decline for both gender with no apparent change for lower age groups (below 40).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권sup3호
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• pp.253-256
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• 2016

Geographic disparity for colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality according to the human development index (HDI) might be expected. This study aimed at quantifying the effect measure of association HDI and its components on the CRC incidence and mortality. In this ecological study, CRC incidence and mortality was obtained from GLOBOCAN, the global cancer project for 172 countries. Data were extracted about HDI 2013 for 169 countries from the World Bank report. Linear regression was constructed to measure effects of HDI and its components on CRC incidence and mortality. A positive trend between increasing HDI of countries and age-standardized rates per 100,000 of CRC incidence and mortality was observed. Among HDI components education was the strongest effect measure of association on CRC incidence and mortality, regression coefficients (95% confidence intervals) being 2.8 (2.4, 3.2) and 0.9 (0.8, 1), respectively. HDI and its components were positively related with CRC incidence and mortality and can be considered as targets for prevention and treatment intervention or tracking geographic disparities.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제30권5호
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• pp.701-717
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• 2017

급속한 고령화로 인하여 미래의 인구와 인구구조에 관해 사회와 정부의 관심이 증가하고 있으며 우리나라의 사망률은 감소하고 있으나 감소폭은 변동적이다. 본 연구에서는 이를 고려할 수 있는 모형을 살펴보고자 LC 모형, LM 모형, BMS 모형 그리고 비모수평활 기법이 적용된 FDM과 Coherent FDM을 비교 분석하여 연령별 사망률과 기대수명 예측의 정확성 측면에서 남녀 사망률 개선 추이를 예측하는데 적합한 모형을 살펴보았다. 또한 우리나라 사망률 예측에 비모수 기법의 활용 가능성을 검토하였다. 분석 결과 최근 자료의 추세를 잘 반영하는 비모수기법을 활용한 인구통계모델인 FDM과 Coherent FDM의 예측력이 우수함을 알 수 있었다. 결과적으로 FDM과 Coherent FDM은 적합이 뛰어나고, 미래에 변화가 크지 않다면 예측력 또한 우수하다 볼 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제24권5호
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• pp.523-537
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• 2008

In Korea, the global warming leads to more frequent high temperature region. increasing the need for research into physical damage caused by high temperature. We therefore analyzed the differences of mortality, caused by extreme heat, among gender and age. We also examined the trend of mortality from high temperature-sensitive diseases. Women are more affected by exposure to high temperature than are men; People over 65 years old have higher mortality rate (1.5 times) than under 65. As for high temperature-related diseases, cerebrovascular disease was the number one cause of death, and chronic lower respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease followed.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.604-615
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• 1998

Although previous studies revealed the association of physical activity with mortality rate, it is unclear whether there is a linear trend between physical activity and mortality rate. In this study, the association of physical activity with the risk of all-cause mortality was analysed using Cox's proportional hazard model for a cohort of 14,204 healthy Korean men aged 40-59 years followed up for 4 years(Jan. 1993-Dec. 1996). Physical activity and other life style were surveyed by a postal questionnaire in December 1992. Total of 14,204 subjects were grouped into quartiles by physical activity. Using death certificate data, 123 deaths were identified. The second most active quartile had a lowest mortality .ate with relative risk of 0.44(95% C.I. : 0.23-0.84) compared with most sedentary quartile, showing a J-shape pattern of physical activity-mortality curve. By examining the difference in proportion of cause of the death between most active quartile and the other quartiles, there was no significant difference of proportional mortality from cardiovascular deaths, cerebrovascular deaths or deaths from trauma. The covariates were stratified into two group between which the trend of RR was compared to test the effect modification. There was no remarkable effect modification by alcohol intake, smoking, body mass index, calorie consumption, percent fat consumption. In conclusion, moderate activity was found to have more protective effect on all-cause mortality than vigorous activity and that the J-shape pattern of physical activity-mortality curve was not due to the difference of mortality pattern or effect modification by alcohol intake, smoking, body mass index, calorie consumption and percent fat consumption.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권16호
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• pp.6929-6934
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• 2014

Background: To analyze the mortality distribution of esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012, to forecast the mortality in the future five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, sex and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the next five years in the future. Results: In China, the incidence rate of esophageal cancer from 2007 and the mortality rate of esophageal cancer from 2008 increased yearly, with males at $8.72/10^5$ being higher than females, and the countryside at $15.5/10^5$ being higher than in the city. The mortality rate increased from age 45. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from southern to eastern China, and from northeast to central China. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer are rising. The regional disease control for esophageal cancer should be focused on eastern, central and northern regions China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men more than 45 years old. The mortality of esophageal cancer will rise in the next five years.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권15호
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• pp.6729-6734
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• 2015

Background: To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future. Results: In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of $1.45/10^5$ at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higher than females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rate increased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the next five years.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권18호
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• pp.8589-8594
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• 2016

Background: Liver cancer is one of the most common causes of death in the world. In Korea, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major risk factor for liver cancer but infection rates have been declining since the implementation of the national vaccination program. In this study, we examined the secular trends in liver cancer mortality to distinguish the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. Materials and Methods: Data for the annual number of liver cancer deaths in Korean adults (30 years and older) were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service for the period from 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to study the shapes of and to detect the changes in mortality trends. Also, an age-period-cohort model was designed to study the effect of each age, period, and birth cohort on liver cancer mortality. Results: For both men and women, the age-standardized mortality rate for liver cancer increased from 1984 to 1993 and decreased thereafter. The highest liver cancer mortality rate has shifted to an older age group in recent years. Within the same birth cohort group, the mortality rate of older age groups has been higher than in the younger age groups. Age-period-cohort analysis showed an association with a high mortality rate in the older age group and in recent years, whereas a decreasing mortality rate were observed in the younger birth cohort. Conclusions: This study confirmed a decreasing trend in liver cancer mortality among Korean men and women after 1993. The trends in mortality rate may be mainly attributed to cohort effects.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제47권6호
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• pp.336-342
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• 2014

Objectives: Child mortality remains a critical problem even in developed countries due to low fertility. To plan effective interventions, investigation into the trends and causes of child mortality is necessary. Therefore, we analyzed these trends and causes of child deaths over the last 30 years in Korea. Methods: Causes of death data were obtained from a nationwide vital registration managed by the Korean Statistical Information Service. The mortality rate among all children aged between one and four years and the causes of deaths were reviewed. Data from 1983-2012 and 1993-2012 were analyzed separately because the proportion of unspecified causes of death during 1983-1992 varied substantially from that during 1993-2012. Results: The child (1-4 years) mortality rates substantially decreased during the past three decades. The trend analysis revealed that all the five major causes of death (infectious, neoplastic, neurologic, congenital, and external origins) have decreased significantly. However, the sex ratio of child mortality (boys to girls) slightly increased during the last 30 years. External causes of death remain the most frequent origin of child mortality, and the proportion of mortality due to child assault has significantly increased (from 1.02 in 1983 to 1.38 in 2012). Conclusions: In Korea, the major causes and rate of child mortality have changed and the sex ratio of child mortality has slightly increased since the early 1980s. Child mortality, especially due to preventable causes, requires public health intervention.