• Title/Summary/Keyword: monte-carlo simulation method

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A Study on Analyzing the Validity between the Predicted and Measured Concentrations of VOCs in the Atmosphere Using the CalTOX Model (CalTOX 모델에 의한 휘발성유기화합물의 대기 중 예측 농도와 실측 농도간의 타당성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ok;Lee, Minwoo;Park, Sanghyun;Park, Changyoung;Song, Youngho;Kim, Byeongbin;Choi, Jinha;Lee, Jinheon
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.576-587
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: This study calculated local residents exposures to VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) released into the atmosphere using the CalTOX model and carried out uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis. The model validity was analyzed by comparing the predicted and the actual atmospheric concentrations. Methods: Uncertainty was parsed by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity was dissected with the regression (coefficients) method. The model validity was analyzed by applying r2 (coefficient of determination), RMSE (root mean square error), and the Nash-Sutcliffe EI (efficiency index) formula. Results: Among the concentrations in the atmosphere in this study, benzene was the highest and the lifetime average daily dose of benzene and the average daily dose of xylene were high. In terms of the sensitivity analysis outcome, the source term to air, exposure time, indoors resting (ETri), exposure time, outdoors at home (ETao), yearly average wind speed (v_w), contaminated area in ㎡ (Area), active breathing rate (BRa), resting breathing rate (BRr), exposure time, and active indoors (ETai) were elicited as input variables having great influence upon this model. In consequence of inspecting the validity of the model, r2 appeared to be a value close to 1 and RMSE appeared to be a value close to 0, but EI indicated unacceptable model efficiency. To supplement this value, the regression formula was derived for benzene with y=0.002+15.48x, ethylbenzene with y ≡ 0.001+57.240x, styrene with y=0.000+42.249x, toluene with y=0.004+91.588x, and xylene with y=0.000+0.007x. Conclusions: In consequence of inspecting the validity of the model, r2 appeared to be a value close to 1 and RMSE appeared to be a value close to 0, but EI indicated unacceptable model efficiency. This will be able to be used as base data for securing the accuracy and reliability of the model.

Exhaust Plume Behavior Study of MMH-NTO Bipropellant Thruster (MMH-NTO 이원추진제 추력기의 배기가스 거동 해석 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeonah;Lee, Kyun Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.300-309
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    • 2017
  • A spacecraft obtains a reaction momentum required for an orbit correction and an attitude control by exhausting a combustion gas through a small thruster in space. If the exhaust plume collides with spacecraft surfaces, it is very important to predict the exhaust plume behavior of the thruster when designing a satellite, because a generated disturbance force/torque, a heat load and a surface contamination can yield a life shortening and a reduction of the spacecraft function. The purpose of the present study is to ensure the core technology required for the spacecraft design by analyzing numerically the exhaust gas behavior of the 10 N class bipropellant thruster for an attitude control of the spacecraft. To do this, calculation results of chemical equilibrium reaction between a MMH for fuel and a NTO for oxidizer, and continuum region of the nozzle inside are implemented as inlet conditions of the DSMC method for the exhaust plume analysis. From these results, it is possible to predict a nonequilibrium expansion such as a species separation and a backflow in the vicinity of the bipropellant thruster nozzle.

An Analysis of the Efficiency of Agricultural Business Corporations Using the Stochastic DEA Model (농업생산법인의 경영효율성 분석: 부트스트래핑 기법 활용)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Kim, Chung-Sil;Kwon, Kyung-Sup
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.137-152
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate efficiency of agricultural business corporations using Data Envelopment Analysis. A proposed method employs a bootstrapping approach to generate efficiency estimates through Monte Carlo simulation re-sampling process. The technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency measure of the corporations is 0.749 0.790, 0.948 respectively. Among the 692 agricultural business corporations, the number of Increasing Returns to Scale (IRS)-type corporations was analyzed to be 539(77.9%). The number of Constant Returns to Scale (CRS)-type corporations was 108(15.6%), and that of Decreasing Returns to Scale (DRS)-type corporations was 45(6.5%). Since an increase in input is lower than an increase in output in IRS, an increase in input factors such as new investments is required. The Tobit model suggests that the type of corporation, capital level, and period of operation affect the efficiency score more than others. The positive coefficient of capital level and period of operation variable indicates that efficiency score increases as capital level and period of operation increases.

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Probabilistic Optimization for Improving Soft Marine Ground using a Low Replacement Ratio (해상 연약지반의 저치환율 개량에 대한 확률론적 최적화)

  • Han, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Hong-Yeon;Yea, Geu-Guwen
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.485-495
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    • 2016
  • To reinforce and improve the soft ground under a breakwater while using materials efficiently, the replacement ratio and leaving periods of surcharge load are optimized probabilistically. The results of Bayesian updating of the random variables using prior information decrease uncertainty by up to 39.8%, and using prior information with more samples results in a sharp decrease in uncertainty. Replacement ratios of 15%-40% are analyzed using First Order Reliability Method and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the replacement ratio. The results show that replacement ratios of 20% and 25% are acceptable at the column jet grouting area and the granular compaction pile area, respectively. Life cycle costs are also compared to optimize the replacement ratios within allowable ranges. The results show that a range of 20%-30% is the most economical during the total life cycle. This means that initial construction cost, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are minimized during total life cycle. Probabilistic analysis for leaving periods of shows that three months acceptable. Design optimization with respect to life cycle cost is important to minimize maintenance costs and retain the performance of the structures for the required period. Therefore, more case studies that consider the maintenance costs of soil structures are necessary to establish relevant design codes.

Evaluation of Image Quality using Monte Carlo Simulation in Digital Mammography System (디지털유방영상시스템에서 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 영상평가)

  • Kim, Changsoo;Kang, Se-Sik;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Lee, Jin-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2014
  • For the purpose of early diagnosis of the breast cancer, the attention on the screening mammography has been increasing-with supply of digital mammography day by day. Image quality is decided by target materials and filter combinations. Optimized selection by a glandular density and a thickness is needed, because these combinations change x-ray spectrum and effect to image quality. The purpose of this study is to find out optimized target and filter combinations through the evaluation of quantitative image quality and to suggest means which minimize patient dose through MCNPX. In results, spatial frequency resolution evaluation which is quantitative image quality evaluation method, MTF, NPS, DQE shows that we have to select Mo/Mo combinations or Mo/Rh combinations when compressed breast is thin. but in case of that when compressed breast is thick, we have to select Rh/Rh combinations or W /Rh combinations. In a comprehensive evaluation, W!Rh combinations which are not used in thin breasts in practice was superior to all image quality evaluation. This result is somewhat different-with clinical examination results. Secondary end point was organ dose evaluation, radiation dose of opposite breast was approximately 47 ~73% effectiveness when selecting standard breast. In conculsion, the most important point is that we have to select the optimal combinations-with considering dose evaluation and various thickness.

Kinematic Analysis of Plane Failure for Rock Slope Using GIS and Probabilistic Analysis Method (GIS와 확률론적 해석 기법을 기반으로 한 평면파괴의 운동학적 안정성 해석)

  • Lee, Seok Hwan;Park, Hyuck Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2014
  • The stability of rock slope is mainly controlled by the orientation and shear strength of discontinuties in rock mass. Therefore, in kinematic analysis, the orientation of the combination of discontinuities and slope face is examined to determine if certain modes of failure can be occurred. In previous kinematic analysis, a representative orientation of the slope face and mean orientation of discontinuity set were used as input parameters. However, since the orientations of slope face varies according to locations of measurement, the representative slope face orientation could cause misunderstanding for kinematic instability. In addition, since the orientations of each discontinuity are scattered in the same discontinuity set, there is the possibility that uncertainties are involved in the procedure of kinematic analysis. Therefore, in this study, the detailed digital topographic map was used to obtain the orientation of slope face. In addition, the probabilistic analysis approach was utilized to deal properly with the uncertainties in discontinuity orientation. The proposed approach was applied to steep slopes in mountain road located in Baehuryeong, Chunncheon city, Gangwon-Do. The analysis results obtained from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis were compared to check the feasibility of proposed the analysis.

Variation Range for Maintenance Costs of Education Facilities Based on LCC Analysis (LCC기법을 통한 교육시설물의 유지관리비 변동범위 분석)

  • Kim, Yong-Su;Kang, Hyun-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to analysis variation of range estimation for maintenance costs of education facilities based on LCC. The adapted research method selected three education facilities in Gyeonggi-Do region. On the basis of actual maintenance costs and analyzed estimation maintenance costs are compared for analyzing standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The research of this study are as follows: 1) The average actual maintenance costs for 1,317million won and each part of average ratio exterior 19%, interior 28%, electricity & fire fighting 22%, water supply & healthy 18%, heating & water supply 13%. 2)The average analysis maintenance costs for 1,920million won and each part of average ratio exterior 20%, interior 25%, electricity & fire fighting 22%, water supply & healthy 20%, heating &water supply 13%.. 3) The analysis variation of ranges for average costs 1,619million won for minimum costs 1,409million, maximum costs 1,813million won.

Economic Evaluation of Port Hinterlands Using Real Option -Focusing on the Case Study for Hinterland of Busan New Port- (실물옵션을 이용한 항만배후단지의 가치평가 -부산신항 배후단지 사례분석을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, MyoungHee;Lee, Kihwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.235-257
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    • 2012
  • Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.

Study on the neutron imaging detector with high spatial resolution at China spallation neutron source

  • Jiang, Xingfen;Xiu, Qinglei;Zhou, Jianrong;Yang, Jianqing;Tan, Jinhao;Yang, Wenqin;Zhang, Lianjun;Xia, Yuanguang;Zhou, Xiaojuan;Zhou, Jianjin;Zhu, Lin;Teng, Haiyun;Yang, Gui-an;Song, Yushou;Sun, Zhijia;Chen, Yuanbo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.1942-1946
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    • 2021
  • Gadolinium oxysulfide (GOS) is regarded as a novel scintillator for the realization of ultra-high spatial resolution in neutron imaging. Monte Carlo simulations of GOS scintillator show that the capability of its spatial resolution is towards the micron level. Through the time-of-flight method, the light output of a GOS scintillator was measured to be 217 photons per captured neutron, ~100 times lower than that of a ZnS/LiF:Ag scintillator. A detector prototype has been developed to evaluate the imaging solution with the GOS scintillator by neutron beam tests. The measured spatial resolution is ~36 ㎛ (28 line pairs/mm) at the modulation transfer function (MTF) of 10%, mainly limited by the low experimental collimation ratio of the beamline. The weak light output of the GOS scintillator requires an enormous increase in the neutron flux to reduce the exposure time for practical applications.

Average Data Rate Analysis for Data Exchanging Nodes via Relay by Concurrent Transmission (데이타 교환 노드의 동시 전송 릴레이 이용을 위한 평균 데이터 전송률 분석)

  • Kwon, Taehoon
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.638-644
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    • 2018
  • Relay systems have recently gained attentions because of its capability of cell coverage extension and the power gain as the one of key technologies for 5G. Relays can be exploited for small-cell base stations and the autonomous network, where communication devices communicate with each other cooperatively. Therefore, the relay technology is expected to enable the low power and large capacity communication. In order to maximize the benefits of using a limited number of relays, the efficient relay selection method is required. Especially, when two nodes exchange their data with each other via relay, the relay selection can maximize the average data rate by the spatial location of the relay. For this purpose, the average data rate is analyzed first according to the relay selection. In this paper, we analyzed the average data rate when two nodes exchange their data via dual-hop decode and forward relaying considering the interference by the concurrent transmission under Nakagami-m fading channel. The correctness of the analysis is verified by the Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that the concurrent transmission is superior to the non-concurrent transmission in the high required data rate region rather than in the low required data rate region.