• Title/Summary/Keyword: monetary approach

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Determinants of Inflation Expectations of South Korean Consumers (한국 소비자의 기대 인플레이션 결정요인)

  • Young-Bin Ahn
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.413-429
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of consumers' inflation expectations using consumers' inflation perceptions and the sub-components of consumer price index (CPI) basket in South Korea based on a consumer survey conducted by the Bank of Korea (BOK). Design/methodology/approach - Using Carroll's (2003) epidemiological model, we analyzed data from January 2013 to January 2023, resulting in a data set of 121 observations for both inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. This study focuses only on aggregate inflation expectations and perceptions because of data availability from the BOK. Findings - Professionals' forecasts play a major role in forming consumers' inflation expectations, whereas the actual headline CPI and consumers' inflation perceptions do not. These results remain robust when including the sub-components of the CPI basket in the analysis. Research implications or Originality - It would be the most efficient way to suppress professionals' expected inflation in fighting against a substantial spike in consumers' inflation expectations. To guide consumers' inflation expectations based on BOK's inflation targeting, the bank needs to consider professionals' forecasts in devising monetary policies.

Design Improvements of Investment Analysis System for SOC (SOC투자평가시스템의 체계 및 설계개선)

  • Lee, Jinsun;Nam, Doohee
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.131-136
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    • 2015
  • The feasibility study is an evaluation and analysis of the potential of a proposed project. It is based on extensive investigation and research to support the process of decision making. A systematic approach to determining the optimum use of scarce resources, involving comparison of two or more alternatives in achieving a specific objective under the given assumptions and constraints. Economic analysis takes into account the opportunity costs of resources employed and attempts to measure in monetary terms the private and social costs and benefits of a project to the community or economy. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), sometimes called benefit-cost analysis (BCA), is a systematic approach to estimating the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives that satisfy transactions, activities or functional requirements for a business. It is a technique that is used to determine options that provide the best approach for the adoption and practice in terms of benefits in labor, time and cost savings etc. The CBA is also defined as a systematic process for calculating and comparing benefits and costs of a project, decision or government policy and projects.

The Prediction of Currency Crises through Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 경제 위기 예측)

  • Lee, Hyoung Yong;Park, Jung Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

Optimal Monetary Policy System for Both Macroeconomics and Financial Stability (거시경제와 금융안정을 종합 고려한 최적 통화정책체계 연구)

  • Joonyoung Hur;Hyoung Seok Oh
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.91-129
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    • 2024
  • The Bank of Korea, through a legal amendment in 2011 following the financial crisis, was entrusted with the additional responsibility of financial stability beyond its existing mandate of price stability. Since then, concerns have been raised about the prolonged increase in household debt compared to income conditions, which could constrain consumption and growth and increase the possibility of a crisis in the event of negative economic shocks. The current accumulation of financial imbalances suggests a critical period for the government and central bank to be more vigilant, ensuring it does not impede the stable flow of our financial and economic systems. This study examines the applicability of the Integrated Inflation Targeting (IIT) framework proposed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for macro-financial stability in promoting long-term economic stability. Using VAR models, the study reveals a clear increase in risk appetite following interest rate cuts after the financial crisis, leading to a rise in household debt. Additionally, analyzing the central bank's conduct of monetary policy from 2000 to 2021 through DSGE models indicates that the Bank of Korea has operated with a form of IIT, considering both inflation and growth in its policy decisions, with some responsiveness to the increase in household debt. However, the estimation of a high interest rate smoothing coefficient suggests a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, estimating the optimal interest rate rule to minimize the central bank's loss function reveals that a policy considering inflation, growth, and being mindful of household credit conditions is superior. It suggests that the policy of actively adjusting the benchmark interest rate in response to changes in economic conditions and being attentive to household credit situations when household debt is increasing rapidly compared to income conditions has been analyzed as a desirable policy approach. Based on these findings, we conclude that the integrated inflation targeting framework proposed by the BIS could be considered as an alternative policy system that supports the stable growth of the economy in the medium to long term.

A Simplified Procedure for Performance-Based Design

  • Zareian, Farzin;Krawinkler, Helmut
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2007
  • This paper focuses on providing a practical approach for decision making in Performance-Based Design (PBD). Satisfactory performance is defined by several performance objectives that place limits on direct (monetary) loss and on a tolerable probability of collapse. No specific limits are placed on conventional engineering parameters such as forces or deformations, although it is assumed that sound capacity design principles are followed in the design process. The proposed design procedure incorporates different performance objectives up front, before the structural system is created, and assists engineers in making informed decisions on the choice of an effective structural system and its stiffness (period), base shear strength, and other important global structural parameters. The tools needed to implement this design process are (1) hazard curves for a specific ground motion intensity measure, (2) mean loss curves for structural and nonstructural subsystems, (3) structural response curves that relate, for different structural systems, a ground motion intensity measure to the engineering demand parameter (e.g., interstory drift or floor acceleration) on which the subsystem loss depends, and (4) collapse fragility curves. Since the proposed procedure facilitates decision making in the conceptual design process, it is referred to as a Design Decision Support System, DDSS. Implementation of the DDSS is illustrated in an example to demonstrate its practicality.

Effect of CAR and NPL on ROA: Empirical Study in Indonesia Banks

  • TANGNGISALU, Jannati;HASANUDDIN, Rusdiah;HALA, Yusriadi;NURLINA, Nurlina;SYAHRUL, Syahruni
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2020
  • This study seeks to analyze the effect of Non-Performing Loans and Capital Adequacy Ratio on Return on Assets on ten conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI-IDX). This study uses secondary panel data for 2015-2019 in the form of CAR and NPL values from ten conventional banks listed on the BEI-IDX during the 2020 observation period. The research approach is quantitative descriptive with data analysis methods, namely, linear regression. The testing phase of this study includes: transform value, F-test, T-test and hypothesis test with significancy level sig < 0.05. The results of this study reveal that Non-Performing Loans had a significant negative effect (t = -2,637) (0.011 <0.0) on Return on Assets, while Capital Adequacy Ratio has no significant effect on ROA (0.760 > 0.05). R2 value is 0.128 or 12.8%. It has a significant effect on variables, calling efforts by banks, governments, and authorities monetary of related institutions to maintain the stability of finance. The reduction of Non-Performing Loan impacts on assets and capital adequacy ratio, besides, the normal NPL will control the stability of finance. If a balance is created either in the form of values or amounts of the variables, the reduction in Non-Performing Loans will be controlled.

The Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Restoration in Suncheon Bay (순천만 생태복원에 따른 경제적 가치 평가)

  • Hwang, Minsup;Lee, Myung Kyoon;Jung, Tae Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 2014
  • Coastal wetlands are among the most productive biomes in the Earth. The economic values include the direct use of a coastal wetland's ecosystem services, such as food, raw materials, recreation, and tourism. Other values comprise the indirect use of a coastal wetland's ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, waste-water treatment, and erosion prevention. In particular, Suncheon Bay is recently attracting attention as the most successful case of the preservation and restoration. This study applies Travel Cost Method (TCM) to estimate the economic value by drawing the demand curve for trips to Suncheon Bay. The TCM is an approach used for economic valuation of non-market goods and services. Based on the results of TCM, this study shows that the economic benefit from recreational uses of the site adds up to \174.7 billion per year. It is also significant in the sense that monetary information is suggested to help local policy makers evaluate the realistic values of coastal wetlands.

Theoretical Approach to the Family Business Management (가족기업(Family Business) 경영에 관한 이론적 논의)

  • 문숙재
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.317-334
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this Study is to theoretically discuss the Family Business. Family Business means a business that is owned and managed by one or more family members. Family Businesses are seen as an avenue to achieve economic security, as motivations for a productive society, and as a method for individuals to receive a monetary return for their talents and initiative. The presence of family business as a predominant business structure in the all of country's economy and their association economic contributions have been documented elsewhere. The overall objectives of this study are to introduce in the Home economics and Home Management field what the Family Business is, concretely to identify the definition of Family Business and related concepts-Home Based Business & Home Based work-, to study the interface of family and business functions within a single family. This study is to examine a clear understanding of the relationship between family functioning and business viability in families who own and operate businesses. Such understanding will be helpful in enhancing the stability and security of families who own and operate business and in developing policies and programs that foster Family Business and assist in their contributions to community and economic development. Also to understand the family and business environments and their interaction can enhance the opportunities and satisfactions for family members who are involved in business together. Results from this study will allow researchers a unique view of the Family business management and will contribute to individual and group well-being in both family and work settings.

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CTaG: An Innovative Approach for Optimizing Recovery Time in Cloud Environment

  • Hung, Pham Phuoc;Aazam, Mohammad;Huh, Eui-Nam
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.1282-1301
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    • 2015
  • Traditional infrastructure has been superseded by cloud computing, due to its cost-effective and ubiquitous computing model. Cloud computing not only brings multitude of opportunities, but it also bears some challenges. One of the key challenges it faces is recovery of computing nodes, when an Information Technology (IT) failure occurs. Since cloud computing mainly depends upon its nodes, physical servers, that makes it very crucial to recover a failed node in time and seamlessly, so that the customer gets an expected level of service. Work has already been done in this regard, but it has still proved to be trivial. In this study, we present a Cost-Time aware Genetic scheduling algorithm, referred to as CTaG, not only to globally optimize the performance of the cloud system, but also perform recovery of failed nodes efficiently. While modeling our work, we have particularly taken into account the factors of network bandwidth and customer's monetary cost. We have implemented our algorithm and justify it through extensive simulations and comparison with similar existing studies. The results show performance gain of our work over the others, in some particular scenarios.

A Study on the Fire-Safety Design for the Historic Buildings (역사적 건조물의 화재안전을 위한 기초연구)

  • Lee Ji-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2004
  • Fire was and remains a great threat to historic buildings of wood. This threat is omnipresent and often results to irreparable property losses especially cultural heritages. Fire of historic buildings continues to increase every year. The purpose of this study is to preserve a life safety, historical heritage and architectural & cultural values by pursuing for fire safety in the historical buildings. This study shall employ two research methods: a literature review and field survey methods. The literature review shall focus on the observations of characteristics noted in fire codes. The field survey shall cover a heat analysis and fire protection equipment. A method is proposed to investigate fire codes related historical building, reported fire history Fire Codes and Regulations for modern buildings are not always applicable on the historic buildings. Old buildings, and some new buildings with architectural, historical or cultural importance may have values which cannot be measured on a monetary scale. Their protection against the damage caused by fire is considered to be one of the basic moral duties of society. It is strongly recommended, therefore, legislation for fire safety in historical buildings must be extended to a complementary relationship with 'active' fire protection measures, to provide safety in real historical building in real fire situations. The development and application of performance based Codes and the Fire Safety Engineering approach seems to be a rather reasonable and effective way to deal with this historical buildings.