• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.131-157
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• 2018

We propose a robust event date model to estimate the date of a target event by a combination of individual dates obtained from archaeological artifacts assumed to be contemporaneous. These dates are affected by errors of different types: laboratory and calibration curve errors, irreducible errors related to contaminations, and taphonomic disturbances, hence the possible presence of outliers. Modeling based on a hierarchical Bayesian statistical approach provides a simple way to automatically penalize outlying data without having to remove them from the dataset. Prior information on individual irreducible errors is introduced using a uniform shrinkage density with minimal assumptions about Bayesian parameters. We show that the event date model is more robust than models implemented in BCal or OxCal, although it generally yields less precise credibility intervals. The model is extended in the case of stratigraphic sequences that involve several events with temporal order constraints (relative dating), or with duration, hiatus constraints. Calculations are based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) numerical techniques and can be performed using ChronoModel software which is freeware, open source and cross-platform. Features of the software are presented in Vibet et al. (ChronoModel v1.5 user's manual, 2016). We finally compare our prior on event dates implemented in the ChronoModel with the prior in BCal and OxCal which involves supplementary parameters defined as boundaries to phases or sequences.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.350-357
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• 2014

MRDS is a short range missile/rocket defense system which protects a main battle tank(MBT) from threats at a short range. It is composed of 2 radars, 2 infrared trackers(IRT)s, 1 fire control computer(FCC), 2 launchers and countermeasures. In this paper, the radar and the IRT models based on sensing errors, the FCC model based on filtering errors, the launcher model based on driving errors and the countermeasure model based on flying errors are proposed to analyze the defense performance with the approaching RPG-7 and the moving MBT. The simulation results are presented to evaluate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.207-220
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• 2005

Nuclear power plants (NPP) are complex socio-technological systems that rely on the success of both hardware and human components. Empirical studies of plant operating experience show that human errors are important contributors to accidents and incidents, and that organizational factors play an important role in creating contexts for human errors. Current probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) do not explicitly model the systematic contribution of organizational factors to safety. As some countries, like the United States, are moving towards increased use of risk information in the regulation and operation of nuclear facilities, PSA quality has been identified as an area for improvement. The modeling of human errors, and underlying organizational weaknesses at the root of these errors, are important sources of uncertainty in existing PSAs and areas of on-going research. This paper presents a review of research into the following questions: Is there evidence that organizational factors are important to NPP safety? How do organizations contribute to safety in NPP operations? And how can these organizational contributions be captured more explicitly in PSA? We present a few past incidents that illustrate the potential safety implications of organizational deficiencies, some mechanisms by which organizational factors contribute to NPP risk, and some of the methods proposed in the literature for performing root-cause analyses and including organizational factors in PSA.

• International Journal of Automotive Technology
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.225-232
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• 2007

A tooth profile modification for loaded gears is used to avoid a tooth impact. Since a tooth profile error causes amplification of the cumbersome whine noise in automotive gear transmissions, an optimal quantity of tooth profile modifications must be obtained for good performance in the vibration sense. In this paper, a tooth profile modification curve considering profile manufacturing errors and elastic deformation of the gear tooth is formulated; in addition, transmission errors of the gear system with modified teeth are verified. The equivalent excitation due to transmission errors is formulated. For experimental evaluation of the transmission error, the transmission error for a simple gear system was measured by two rotational laser vibrometers. Finally, we perform a comparative analysis between the calculated and measured responses to the excitations due to the transmission error to verify the practicability of the application to automotive transmissions.

• Journal of KIBIM
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.1-11
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• 2021

BIM is one of the means of reducing the economic loss caused by design errors. These features of BIM have led to increased use of BIM. With the increasing use of BIM, several studies have been conducted to analyze the performance of BIM. As the importance of BIM staff is emphasized in the performance analysis of BIM, the human resource allocation of BIM staff can become an important research issue. However, there are few studies to measure the workforce effectiveness of BIM staff. Ham et al (2020) measured BIM workforce efficiency using FCFS queue model rules. Since design errors can have different effects on the project depending on the type, there are design errors that must be dealt with first. Therefore, in this study, a priority queue was used to solve design errors with high priority first. The performance of BIM-based design verification was analyzed by quantitatively analyzing the performance of BIM staff when the priority rule was applied to the design error processing sequence.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.29-36
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• 2024

Pilots are indispensable and central to the aviation industry, with the relevance of their psychological stress and resultant human errors increasingly recognized as critical. This study aims to meticulously explore the interrelations between psychological stressors and associated factors among helicopter pilots, assessing the consequent effects on potential accidents and incidents. The study comprised active pilots from domestic helicopter airlines, with data collated through both focus group interviews (FGI) and comprehensive surveys. These data were subsequently analyzed using SPSS and AMOS for structural equation modeling. The results reveal that heightened psychological stress in helicopter pilots correlates with an increased incidence of human errors, which in turn, elevates the likelihood of potential safety incidents. Based on these findings, it is proposed that interventions designed to mitigate psychological stress among pilots could significantly reduce human errors and enhance overall aviation safety. This research provides crucial insights into specific ways to improve the operational conditions for helicopter pilots and strengthen the safety protocols within the aviation industry.

• Journal of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.449-455
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• 2024

Autonomous driving requires safe and efficient navigation in complex environments. This has led to an increased demand for reliable test methods, where driving simulators are widely used to simulate sensors in autonomous vehicles. In addition, the concept of digital twins, which combines real and simulated environments, is being applied to autonomous vehicles for efficient and realistic testing. However, inaccuracies in vehicle modeling in simulators can lead to cumulative position errors, especially during sharp maneuvers, undermining the reliability of test results. This paper presents a method to correct cumulative errors in a driving simulator environment by synchronizing the vehicle position and orientation using navigation data. The system periodically adjusts the vehicle dynamics in the simulator to reflect real-world dynamics, eliminating cumulative position errors and narrowing the gap between the simulation and the real-world environments. This approach is particularly effective for interaction-based tests such as Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB), where position accuracy is crucial. To demonstrate the feasibility of this mixed-reality system architecture, experiments were conducted in accordance with the Euro-NCAP AEB protocol. The results illustrate the benefits of the proposed method in mitigating simulator errors and enhancing the overall reliability of autonomous driving testing.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.19-24
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• 2002

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.87-96
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• 2000

Nonlinear time series prediction is derived and compared between statistic of modeling and neural network method. In particular mean squared errors of predication are obtained in generalized random coefficient model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model and compared with them by neural network forecasting.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.253-258
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• 2002

This paper proposes a methodology for development of protocol models. The methodology attempts to employ two modeling environments in models development, NS2 and DEVSim++, which will interoperate during simulation. NS2 is a widely used network simulator in protocol research, which employs an informal modeling approach. Within the approach time and state information of protocol models are not explicitly described, thus being hard to validate model. On the other hand the DEVS formalism is a mathematical framework for modeling a discrete event system in a hierarchical, modular manner. In DEVS, model's time and state information is described explicitly, By using DEVS formalism, models can easily be validated and errors in the modeling stage can be reduced. However, the DEVS simulator, DEVSim++, supports a small amount of models library which are required to build simulation models of general communication network. Although NS2 employs an informal modeling approach and models validation is difficult, it supports abundant models library validated by experimental users. Thus, combination of DEVS models and NS2 models may be an effective solution for network modeling. Such combination requires interoperation between DEVSim++ simulator and NS2 simulator. This paper develops an environment for such interoperation. Correctness and effectiveness of the implemented interoperation environment have been validated by simulation of UDP and TCP models.