• Title/Summary/Keyword: model estimation

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Economic Valuation of Urban Riverine Restoration and A Test of Social Desirability Bias (도심하천복원 경제가치 추정에서 사회규범편의 검정)

  • Choi, Andy S.;Sung, Chan Yong;Baek, Hyojin
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.645-673
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    • 2019
  • The hypothetical nature of stated preferences can lead to a hypothetical bias that might work as a normative pressure, influencing survey responses. This paper aims to test the impact of social desirability bias by comparing economic estimates based on both subjective and objective valuation questions. The case study is about an urban riverine restoration project in Deajeon, South Korea. As valuation methods both contingent valuation and choice experiments were comparatively applied. Based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents, the test results offered contrasting conclusions between two test approaches. Accroding to the estimation results based on the conventional valuation, the marginal willingness to pay estimates are 10,500 KRW from CV; and 18,600 KRW for improving water quality, 2,200 KRW for the inside view, 8,900 KRW for the outside view, and 5,800 KRW for biodiversity from CE. A segmentation-based approach is a conventionally used method, which showed a limited impact of social desirability on willingness to pay estimates. The alternative parameterization-based approach measures a model-wide impact of social desirability, proving a significant bias. Although the study positioned a cheap-talk statement before the valuation section of the survey questionnaires, which might have pre-screened the bias, the overall implications of the results suggest a caution in reducing and observing hypothetical bias. There might remain a significant and substantial hypothetical bias even after cheap-talk, particularly in situations with strong social desirability, so that the potential role of objective valuation questions is guaranteed.

Error analysis on the Offshore Wind Speed Estimation using HeMOSU-1 Data (HeMOSU-1호 관측 자료를 이용한 해상풍속 산정오차 분석)

  • Ko, Dong Hui;Jeong, Shin Taek;Cho, Hongyeon;Kim, Ji Young;Kang, Keum Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.326-332
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, error analyses on the calculation of offshore wind speed have been conducted using HeMOSU-1 data to develop offshore wind energy in Yeonggwang sea of Korea and onshore observed wind data in Buan, Gochang and Yeonggwang for 2011. Offshore wind speed data at 98.69 m height above M.S.L is estimated using relational expression induced by linear regression analysis between onshore and offshore wind data. In addition, estimated offshore wind speed data is set at 87.65 m above M.S.L using power law wind profile model with power law exponent(0.115) and its results are compared with the observed data. As a result, the spatial adjustment error are 1.6~2.2 m/s and the altitude adjustment error is approximately 0.1 m/s. This study shows that the altitude adjustment error is about 5% of the spatial adjustment error. Thus, long term observed data are needed when offshore wind speed was estimated by onshore wind speed data. because the conversion of onshore wind data lead to large error.

A Correlation Study between the Environmental, Personal Exposures and Biomarkers for Volatile Organic Compounds (대기 중 휘발성유기오염물질의 환경, 개인 및 인체 노출의 상관성 연구)

  • Jo, Seong-Joon;Shin, Dong-Chun;Chung, Yong;Breysse, Patrick N.
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2002
  • Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are an important public health problem throughout the world. Many important questions remain to be addressed in assessing exposure to these compounds. Because they are ubiquitous and highly volatile, special techniques must be applied in the analytical determination of VOCs. Personal exposure measurements are needed to evaluate the relationship between microenvironmental concentrations and actual exposures. It is also important to investigate exposure frequency, duration, and intensity, as well as personal exposure characteristics. In addition to air monitoring, biological monitoring may contribute significantly to risk assessment by allowing estimation of absorbed doses, rather than just the external exposure concentrations, which are evaluated by environmental and personal monitoring. This study was conducted to establish the analytic procedure of VOCs in air, blood, urine and exhaled breath and to evaluate the relationships among these environmental media. The subjects of this study were selected because they are occupationally exposed to high levels of VOCs. Environmental, personal, blood, urine and exhalation samples were collected. Purge & trap, thermal desorber, gas chromatography and mass selective detector were used to analyze the collected samples. Analytical procedures were validated with the“break through test”, 'quot;recovery test for storage and transportation”,“method detection limit test”and“inter-laboratory QA/QC study”. Assessment of halogenated compounds indicted that they were significantly correlated to each other (p value < 0.01). In a similar manner, aromatic compounds were also correlated, except in urine sample. Linear regression was used to evaluate the relationships between personal exposures and environmental concentrations. These relationships for aromatic and halogenated are as follows: Halogen $s_{personal}$ = 3.875+0.068Halogen $s_{environmet}$, ($R^2$= .930) Aromatic $s_{personal}$ = 34217.757-31.266Aromatic $s_{environmet}$, ($R^2$= .821) Multiple regression was used to evaluate the relationship between exposures and various exposure deter-minants including, gender, duration of employment, and smoking history. The results of the regression model-ins for halogens in blood and aromatics in urine are as follows: Halogen $s_{blood}$ = 8.181+0.246Halogen $s_{personal}$+3.975Gender ($R^2$= .925), Aromatic $s_{urine}$ = 249.565+0.135Aromatic $s_{personal}$ -5.651 D.S ($R^2$ = .735), In conclusion, we have established analytic procedures for VOC measurement in biological and environmental samples and have presented data demonstrating relationships between VOCs levels in biological media and environmental samples. Abbreviation GC/MS, Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometer; VOCs, Volatile Organic Compounds; OVM, Organic Vapor Monitor; TO, Toxic Organicsapor Monitor; TO, Toxic Organics.

Phonology and Minimum Temperature as Dual Determinants of Late Frost Risk at Vineyards (발아시기 정밀추정에 의한 포도 만상해 경보방법 개선)

  • Jung, Jea-Eun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2006
  • An accurate prediction of budburst in grapevines is indispensable for vineyard frost warning system operations in spring because cold tolerance depends heavily on phonology. However, existing frost warning systems utilize only daily minimum temperature forecasts since there is no way to estimate the site-specific phonology of grapevines. A budburst estimation model based on thermal time was used to project budburst dates of two grapevine cultivars (Kyoho and Campbell Early), and advisories were issued depending on phonology as well as temperature. A 'warning' is issued if two conditions are met: the forecasted daily minimum temperature falls below $-1.5^{\circ}C$ and the estimated phonology is within the budburst period. A 'watch' is issued for a temperature range of -1.5 to $+1.5^{\circ}C$ with the same phonology condition. Validation experiments were done at 8 vineyards in Anseong in spring 2005, and the results showed a good agreement with the observations. This method was applied to the climatological normal year (1971-2000) to determine sites with high frost risk at a 30 m grid cell resolution. Among 608,585 grid cells constituting Anseong, 1,059 cells were identified as high risk for growing Kyoho and 2,788 cells for Campbell Early.

A Fundamental Study to Estimate Construction Performance of Subsea Waterjet Trenching Machine (해저지반 굴삭용 워터젯 장비의 시공성능 추정에 관한 기초적 연구)

  • Na, Kyoung-Won;Beak, Dong-Il;Hwang, Jae-Hyuk;Han, Sung-Hoon;Jang, Min-Suk;Kim, Jae-Heui;Jo, Hyo-Jae
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.539-544
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    • 2015
  • There is drift toward moving offshore structures operating sites to deep water that brings subsea systems and types of apparatus to meet more severe environment than onshore. At this moment, climatic condition and seabed state affect trenching efficiency so trenching process is need to make steady progress in a short time. This paper is research on estimation about construction performance of waterjet trenching machine mounted on ROV trencher. Optimal number of nozzles that can maximize trenching efficiency is selected by considering clearance and angle of nozzles through CFD. Then verified effectiveness of waterjet apparatus on the result of trenching depth and velocity by model test analogized performance for construction work of waterjet trenching machine.

The Estimation and Analysis of Miryang Dam Inflow based on RCP Scenario (RCP 시나리오 기반 밀양댐 미래 유입량 산정 및 결과분석)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Ko, Hyun Soo;Yoon, Hyeon Cheol;Noh, Hyun Seok;Son, Hee Sam
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.3469-3476
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    • 2015
  • The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. In Korea, the territory has east high west low type and the rainfall is concentrated in the summer season. A nation having these topography and precipitation condition like Korea has to basically needs support of hardware alternatives. However, the right places decrease gradually and the resistance of the public opinion for national water resources policy stiffens gradually. The climate change has an effect in water resources fields and has a close relation. In the present study, therefore, future inflow of Miryang multipurpose dam basin is estimated by using SWAT model applied RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of "Korea Meteorological Administration" and considering the results, the future direction is purposed to operate the dam. As a result, the rainfall pattern is changed from traditional peak form to flat form. The dam operation rule in accordance with changing precipitation pattern has to be modified from the conventional operation rule and a new plan has to be established to meet a situation.

Estimation of Software Project Success and Completion Rate Using Gompertz Growth Function (Gompertz 성장곡선을 이용한 소프트웨어 프로젝트의 개발 성공률과 완료율 추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Un
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.13D no.5 s.108
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    • pp.709-716
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    • 2006
  • As the software complexity increases, the development success rate decreases and failure rate increases exponentially. The failure rate related to the software size can be described by a growth function. Based on this phenomenon, this paper estimates the development success and completion rate using the Gompertz growth function. At first, we transformed a software size of numerically suggested $10^n$ into a logarithm and kept the data interval constantly. We tried to derive a functional relationship between the development success rate and the completion rate according to the change of logarithmic software size. However, we could not find a function which can represent this relationship. Therefore, we introduced the failure rate and the cancel rate which are inverse to the development success rate and completion rate, respectively. Then, we indicated the relation between development failure rate and cancel rate based on the change of software size, as a type of growth function. Finally, as we made the Gompertz growth function with the function which describes the cancel rate and the failure rate properly. We could express the actual data suitably. When you apply the growth function model that I suggested, you will be able to get the success rate and completion rate of particular site of software very accurately.

Effects of Aerosol Optical Properties on Upward Shortwave Flux in the Presence of Aerosol and Cloud layers (구름과 에어로솔의 혼재시 에어로솔의 광학특성이 상향 단파 복사에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Kwon-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.301-311
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    • 2017
  • Aerosol optical properties as well as vertical location of layer can alter the radiative balance of the Earth by reflecting and absorbing solar radiation. In this study, radiative transfer model (RTM) and satellite-based analysis have been used to quantify the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative effect of aerosol layers in the cloudy atmosphere of the northeast Asia. RTM simulation results show that the atmospheric warming effect of aerosols increases with their height in the presence of underlying cloud layer. This relationship is higher for stronger absorbing aerosols and higher surface albedo condition. Over study region ($20-50^{\circ}N$, $110-140^{\circ}E$) and aerosol event cases, it is possible to qualitatively identify absorbing aerosol effects in the presence of clouds by combining the UV Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) derived from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), cloud parameters derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS), with TOA Upward Shortwave Flux (USF) from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). As the regional-mean radiative effect of aerosols, 6 - 26 % lower the USF between aerosols and cloud cover is taken into account. These results demonstrate the importance of estimation for the accurate quantification of aerosol's direct and indirect effect.

An Estimation of the Pyiee Elasticities of Tobacco and Health Demand of Korean Urban Households using Macro and Micro Level Data (한국 도시가구의 담배소비와 보건의료지출: 가구 특성을 감안한 수요체계적 분석에 의한 가격탄력성 추정시도)

  • 김원년;이충열
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.257-289
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    • 2002
  • In this study we analyse how the tobacco prices have an effect on the national health. The level of tobacco price will fluctuate its consumers demand and eventually affect the national health status. We estimate tobacco consumption function as well as households'demand system in which tobacco and health expenditure functions are included. Demand elasticities are estimated and evaluated in order to find future policies to improve the national health by controlling the national tobacco consumption There are two econometric approaches app1ied in this study. The lent tobacco demand analysis method is mm tobacco consumption function model. Using national indices of tobacco price, tobacco consumption and other related variables, tobacco consumption function is estimated. The other is micro demand system analysis by using Korean urban households expenditure data during the period of 1991 to 1999. The own price elasticity which is estimated from national tobacco demand per capita is -0.19 for all people and -0.176 for the adults over 18, which means 100% price increase will cause decease of tobacco demand at 19% and 17.6% per each The cross vice elasticity which is estimated between tobacco and health expenditure of urban households demand system is -0.2328, which implies 100% of tobacco price increase will decrease 23.28% of health expenditure. The low price elasticities imply that tobacco price increase will increase total tobacco sales volume. 100% of tobacco price increase will bring about 79% increase of total tobacco sales volume according to our scenario. Korea's tobacco demand is negatively responsive to fluctuations in its price. The health expenditure is also negatively relatedto the tobacco price fluctuation. These empirical outputs could be utilized as the basis of government's tax policy to control national tobacco consumption in the future.

The change in the fertility rates and the determinants of birth interval of Korean women (한국여성의 출산율 변화와 출산간격 영향요인)

  • Ryoo, Kee-Cheol;Piao, Ying-Hua
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2009
  • This paper uses a survey data to analyze the age-specific fertility rates, age-specific cumulative fertility rates, and ages of marriage of the five birth cohorts of Korean women born in the 1940s and thereafter. It was found that later cohorts reach their highest age-specific fertility rate at higher ages than earlier cohorts. The age-specific cumulative fertility rates of the 1950s and 1960 cohorts were found to be much lower than those of the immediately preceding cohorts, while those of the 1970s and 1980s cohorts were not different from those of the 1960s cohorts. Women belonging to later cohorts were found to get married at relatively higher ages. The estimation results of the hazard model show that women belonging to later cohorts and those with more schooling have a tendency to get married at higher ages. The effect of the birth cohorts is thought to be due to the economic, social, and cultural changes in Korea during the late 50 years or so. The time interval between a woman‘s marriage and first birth was found not to be affected by either the year of marriage or that of her birth. Also, those who remained employed for some time around their marriage and those with low schooling were found to have a lower first child birth hazard, which implies that married women’s employment status and family income play an important role in their decisions on childbirth.